arXiv subjects

Dominik J. Mühlematter

Publications and source records attributed to Dominik J. Mühlematter.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reuse or Relearn? A Spectral View of Earth Observation Foundation Models

Foundation models are rarely used as generic, frozen feature extractors; instead, they are fine-tuned for the target downstream application. This practice is particularly prevalent in Earth observation (EO), and it raises a question that downstream accuracy alone cannot answer: does fine-tuning reuse the pretrained representation, or does it relearn a new one? We study this with spectral diagnostics that compare a model before and after adaptation, quantifying how well its dominant singular subspaces are preserved, how broadly the weight update is distributed, and how large it is. Using natural image models such as CLIP and DINO as a reference, we find that, under the evaluated fine-tuning settings, EO models undergo far larger, higher-rank updates and retain much less of their pretrained structure, so their downstream performance is often obtained with substantial changes to the pretrained weight structure. The diagnostics further provide insight into how cheaply a model can be adapted: where the pretrained subspaces are preserved, adapting a small fraction of the parameters can match full fine-tuning, and where they are not, it can fall behind. More broadly, foundation models, and EO foundation models in particular, should be assessed not only by benchmark accuracy, but also by how reusable their pretrained representation is.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

UrbanFusion: Stochastic Multimodal Fusion for Contrastive Learning of Robust Spatial Representations

Forecasting urban phenomena such as housing prices and public health indicators requires the effective integration of various geospatial data. Current methods primarily utilize task-specific models, while recent generic models for spatial representations often support only limited modalities and lack multimodal fusion capabilities. To overcome these challenges, we present UrbanFusion, a spatial representation model that features Stochastic Multimodal Fusion (SMF). The framework employs modality-specific encoders to process different types of inputs, including street view imagery, remote sensing data, cartographic maps, and points of interest (POIs) data. These multimodal inputs are integrated via a Transformer-based fusion module that learns unified representations. An extensive evaluation across 41 tasks in 56 cities worldwide demonstrates UrbanFusion's strong generalization and predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art GeoAI models. Specifically, it 1) outperforms prior models on location-encoding, 2) allows multimodal input during inference, and 3) generalizes well to regions unseen during training. UrbanFusion can flexibly utilize any subset of available modalities for a given location during both pretraining and inference, enabling broad applicability across diverse data availability scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Foundation Models with Singular Value Ensembles

Foundation models have become a dominant paradigm in machine learning, achieving remarkable performance across diverse tasks through large-scale pretraining. However, they often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The standard approach to quantifying epistemic uncertainty are ensembles of multiple independently trained models. But their computational cost scales linearly with ensemble size, making them impractical for large foundation models. We propose Singular Value Ensemble (SVE), a parameter-efficient implicit ensembling method. SVE builds on a simple, but powerful core assumption: namely, that the singular vectors of the weight matrices correspond to meaningful directions in the representation space. If the singular vectors are indeed meaningful (orthogonal) "knowledge directions", then a model ensemble can be obtained by modulating only how strongly each direction contributes to the output. Rather than learning new parameters for each ensemble member, we freeze the singular vectors and only train per-member singular values that rescale the contribution of each direction in that shared knowledge basis. Ensemble diversity emerges naturally during joint training as stochastic initialization and random batch sampling cause different members to converge to different combinations of the same underlying knowledge. SVE performs comparable to an explicit ensemble, while increasing the parameter count of the base model by <1%, making principled uncertainty estimation accessible in resource-constrained settings. We validate SVE on NLP and vision tasks with various different backbones and show that it improves calibration while maintaining predictive accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

LoRA-Ensemble: Efficient Uncertainty Modelling for Self-Attention Networks

Numerous real-world decisions rely on machine learning algorithms and require calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The dominant approach to quantifying the uncertainty inherent in the model is to train an ensemble of separate predictors and measure their empirical variance. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble has a high computational cost and memory footprint, especially if the base model itself is already large, like modern transformers. This motivates efforts to develop implicit ensemble methods that emulate the ensemble without explicitly instantiating all its members. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient ensembling method for self-attention networks. It is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), originally developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, and extends it into an implicit ensembling scheme, where all ensemble members share the same, pre-trained self-attention network, but have individual low-rank matrices for the attention projections. The resulting method not only outperforms state-of-the-art implicit techniques like BatchEnsemble, but even matches or exceeds the accuracy of an Explicit Ensemble, while at the same time achieving superior calibration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Spatially-aware station based car-sharing demand prediction

In recent years, car-sharing services have emerged as viable alternatives to private individual mobility, promising more sustainable and resource-efficient, but still comfortable transportation. Research on short-term prediction and optimization methods has improved operations and fleet control of car-sharing services; however, long-term projections and spatial analysis are sparse in the literature. We propose to analyze the average monthly demand in a station-based car-sharing service with spatially-aware learning algorithms that offer high predictive performance as well as interpretability. Our study utilizes a rich set of socio-demographic, location-based (e.g., POIs), and car-sharing-specific features as input, extracted from a large proprietary car-sharing dataset and publicly available datasets. We first compare the performance of different modeling approaches and find that a global Random Forest with geo-coordinates as part of input features achieves the highest predictive performance with an R-squared score of 0.87 on test data. While a local linear model, Geographically Weighted Regression, performs almost on par in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy. We further leverage the models to identify spatial and socio-demographic drivers of car-sharing demand. An analysis of the Random Forest via SHAP values, as well as the coefficients of GWR and MGWR models, reveals that besides population density and the car-sharing supply, other spatial features such as surrounding POIs play a major role. In addition, MGWR yields exciting insights into the multiscale heterogeneous spatial distributions of factors influencing car-sharing behaviour. Together, our study offers insights for selecting effective and interpretable methods for diagnosing and planning the placement of car-sharing stations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Probabilistic road classification in historical maps using synthetic data and deep learning

Historical maps are invaluable for analyzing long-term changes in transportation and spatial development, offering a rich source of data for evolutionary studies. However, digitizing and classifying road networks from these maps is often expensive and time-consuming, limiting their widespread use. Recent advancements in deep learning have made automatic road extraction from historical maps feasible, yet these methods typically require large amounts of labeled training data. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework that integrates deep learning with geoinformation, computer-based painting, and image processing methodologies. This framework enables the extraction and classification of roads from historical maps using only road geometries without needing road class labels for training. The process begins with training of a binary segmentation model to extract road geometries, followed by morphological operations, skeletonization, vectorization, and filtering algorithms. Synthetic training data is then generated by a painting function that artificially re-paints road segments using predefined symbology for road classes. Using this synthetic data, a deep ensemble is trained to generate pixel-wise probabilities for road classes to mitigate distribution shift. These predictions are then discretized along the extracted road geometries. Subsequently, further processing is employed to classify entire roads, enabling the identification of potential changes in road classes and resulting in a labeled road class dataset. Our method achieved completeness and correctness scores of over 94% and 92%, respectively, for road class 2, the most prevalent class in the two Siegfried Map sheets from Switzerland used for testing. This research offers a powerful tool for urban planning and transportation decision-making by efficiently extracting and classifying roads from historical maps.

cs.CV↗