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Dominique Sluse

Publications and source records attributed to Dominique Sluse.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Cosmic dissonance: new physics or systematics behind a short sound horizon?

Persistent tension between low-redshift observations and the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation (CMB), in terms of two fundamental distance scales set by the sound horizon $r_d$ and the Hubble constant $H_0$, suggests new physics beyond the Standard Model or residual systematics. We examine recently updated distance calibrations from Cepheids, gravitational lensing time-delay observations, and the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. Calibrating the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Type Ia supernovae with combinations of the distance indicators, we obtain a joint and self-consistent measurement of $H_0$ and $r_d$ at low redshift, independent of cosmological models and CMB inference. In an attempt to alleviate the tension between late-time and CMB-based measurements, we consider four extensions of the standard $Λ$CDM model. The sound horizon from our different measurements is $r_d=(137\pm3^{stat.}\pm2^{syst.})$~Mpc. Depending on the adopted distance indicators, the $combined$ tension in $H_0$ and $r_d$ ranges between 2.3 and 5.1 $σ$. We find that modifications of $Λ$CDM that change the physics after recombination fail to solve the problem, for the reason that they only resolve the tension in $H_0$, while the tension in $r_d$ remains unchanged. Pre-recombination extensions (with early dark energy or the effective number of neutrinos $\rm{N}_{\rm{eff}}=3.24 \pm 0.16$) are allowed by the data, unless the calibration from Cepheids is included. Results from time-delay lenses are consistent with those from distance-ladder calibrations and point to a discrepancy between absolute distance scales measured from the CMB (assuming the standard cosmological model) and late-time observations. New proposals to resolve this tension should be examined with respect to reconciling not only the Hubble constant but also the sound horizon derived from the CMB and other cosmological probes.

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H0LiCOW XII. Lens mass model of WFI2033-4723 and blind measurement of its time-delay distance and $H_0$

We present the lens mass model of the quadruply-imaged gravitationally lensed quasar WFI2033-4723, and perform a blind cosmographical analysis based on this system. Our analysis combines (1) time-delay measurements from 14 years of data obtained by the COSmological MOnitoring of GRAvItational Lenses (COSMOGRAIL) collaboration, (2) high-resolution $\textit{Hubble Space Telescope}$ imaging, (3) a measurement of the velocity dispersion of the lens galaxy based on ESO-MUSE data, and (4) multi-band, wide-field imaging and spectroscopy characterizing the lens environment. We account for all known sources of systematics, including the influence of nearby perturbers and complex line-of-sight structure, as well as the parametrization of the light and mass profiles of the lensing galaxy. After unblinding, we determine the effective time-delay distance to be $4784_{-248}^{+399}~\mathrm{Mpc}$, an average precision of $6.6\%$. This translates to a Hubble constant $H_{0} = 71.6_{-4.9}^{+3.8}~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, assuming a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology with a uniform prior on $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ in the range [0.05, 0.5]. This work is part of the $H_0$ Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration, and the full time-delay cosmography results from a total of six strongly lensed systems are presented in a companion paper (H0LiCOW XIII).

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H0LiCOW XIII. A 2.4% measurement of $H_{0}$ from lensed quasars: $5.3σ$ tension between early and late-Universe probes

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$) and other cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of six gravitationally lensed quasars with measured time delays. All lenses except the first are analyzed blindly with respect to the cosmological parameters. In a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology, we find $H_{0} = 73.3_{-1.8}^{+1.7}$, a 2.4% precision measurement, in agreement with local measurements of $H_{0}$ from type Ia supernovae calibrated by the distance ladder, but in $3.1σ$ tension with $Planck$ observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). This method is completely independent of both the supernovae and CMB analyses. A combination of time-delay cosmography and the distance ladder results is in $5.3σ$ tension with $Planck$ CMB determinations of $H_{0}$ in flat $Λ$CDM. We compute Bayes factors to verify that all lenses give statistically consistent results, showing that we are not underestimating our uncertainties and are able to control our systematics. We explore extensions to flat $Λ$CDM using constraints from time-delay cosmography alone, as well as combinations with other cosmological probes, including CMB observations from $Planck$, baryon acoustic oscillations, and type Ia supernovae. Time-delay cosmography improves the precision of the other probes, demonstrating the strong complementarity. Allowing for spatial curvature does not resolve the tension with $Planck$. Using the distance constraints from time-delay cosmography to anchor the type Ia supernova distance scale, we reduce the sensitivity of our $H_0$ inference to cosmological model assumptions. For six different cosmological models, our combined inference on $H_{0}$ ranges from $\sim73$-$78~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, which is consistent with the local distance ladder constraints.

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A SHARP view of H0LiCOW: $H_{0}$ from three time-delay gravitational lens systems with adaptive optics imaging

We present the measurement of the Hubble Constant, $H_0$, with three strong gravitational lens systems. We describe a blind analysis of both PG1115+080 and HE0435-1223 as well as an extension of our previous analysis of RXJ1131-1231. For each lens, we combine new adaptive optics (AO) imaging from the Keck Telescope, obtained as part of the SHARP AO effort, with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging, velocity dispersion measurements, and a description of the line-of-sight mass distribution to build an accurate and precise lens mass model. This mass model is then combined with the COSMOGRAIL measured time delays in these systems to determine $H_{0}$. We do both an AO-only and an AO+HST analysis of the systems and find that AO and HST results are consistent. After unblinding, the AO-only analysis gives $H_{0}=82.8^{+9.4}_{-8.3}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$ for PG1115+080, $H_{0}=70.1^{+5.3}_{-4.5}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$ for HE0435-1223, and $H_{0}=77.0^{+4.0}_{-4.6}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$ for RXJ1131-1231. The joint AO-only result for the three lenses is $H_{0}=75.6^{+3.2}_{-3.3}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$. The joint result of the AO+HST analysis for the three lenses is $H_{0}=76.8^{+2.6}_{-2.6}~\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$. All of the above results assume a flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology with a uniform prior on $Ω_{\textrm{m}}$ in [0.05, 0.5] and $H_{0}$ in [0, 150] $\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}$. This work is a collaboration of the SHARP and H0LiCOW teams, and shows that AO data can be used as the high-resolution imaging component in lens-based measurements of $H_0$. The full time-delay cosmography results from a total of six strongly lensed systems are presented in a companion paper.

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Astro2020 Science White Paper - Quasar Microlensing: Revolutionizing our Understanding of Quasar Structure and Dynamics

Microlensing by stars within distant galaxies acting as strong gravitational lenses of multiply-imaged quasars, provides a unique and direct measurement of the internal structure of the lensed quasar on nano-arcsecond scales. The measurement relies on the temporal variation of high-magnification caustic crossings which vary on timescales of days to years. Multiwavelength observations provide information from distinct emission regions in the quasar. Through monitoring of these strong gravitational lenses, a full tomographic view can emerge with Astronomical-Unit scale resolution. Work to date has demonstrated the potential of this technique in about a dozen systems. In the 2020s there will be orders of magnitude more systems to work with. Monitoring of lens systems for caustic-crossing events to enable triggering of multi-platform, multi-wavelength observations in the 2020s will fulfill the potential of quasar microlensing as a unique and comprehensive probe of active black hole structure and dynamics.

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The Most Powerful Lenses in the Universe: Quasar Microlensing as a Probe of the Lensing Galaxy

Optical and X-ray observations of strongly gravitationally lensed quasars (especially when four separate images of the quasar are produced) determine not only the amount of matter in the lensing galaxy but also how much is in a smooth component and how much is composed of compact masses (e.g., stars, stellar remnants, primordial black holes, CDM sub-halos, and planets). Future optical surveys will discover hundreds to thousands of quadruply lensed quasars, and sensitive X-ray observations will unambiguously determine the ratio of smooth to clumpy matter at specific locations in the lensing galaxies and calibrate the stellar mass fundamental plane, providing a determination of the stellar $M/L$. A modest observing program with a sensitive, sub-arcsecond X-ray imager, combined with the planned optical observations, can make those determinations for a large number (hundreds) of the lensing galaxies, which will span a redshift range of $\sim$$0.25<z<1.5$

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Constraining the microlensing effect on time delays with new time-delay prediction model in $H_{0}$ measurements

Time-delay strong lensing provides a unique way to directly measure the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$). The precision of the $H_{0}$ measurement depends on the uncertainties in the time-delay measurements, the mass distribution of the main deflector(s), and the mass distribution along the line of sight. Tie and Kochanek (2018) have proposed a new microlensing effect on time delays based on differential magnification of the coherent accretion disc variability of the lensed quasar. If real, this effect could significantly broaden the uncertainty on the time delay measurements by up to $30\%$ for lens systems such as PG1115+080, which have relatively short time delays and monitoring over several different epochs. In this paper we develop a new technique that uses the time-delay ratios and simulated microlensing maps within a Bayesian framework in order to limit the allowed combinations of microlensing delays and thus to lessen the uncertainties due to the proposed effect. We show that, under the assumption of Tie and Kochanek (2018), the uncertainty on the time-delay distance ($D_{Δt}$, which is proportional to 1/$H_{0}$) of short time-delay ($\sim18$ days) lens, PG1115+080, increases from $\sim7\%$ to $\sim10\%$ by simultaneously fitting the three time-delay measurements from the three different datasets across twenty years, while in the case of long time-delay ($\sim90$ days) lens, the microlensing effect on time delays is negligible as the uncertainty on $D_{Δt}$ of RXJ1131-1231 only increases from $\sim2.5\%$ to $\sim2.6\%$.

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New constraints on quasar broad absorption and emission line regions from gravitational microlensing

Gravitational microlensing is a powerful tool allowing one to probe the structure of quasars on sub-parsec scale. We report recent results, focusing on the broad absorption and emission line regions. In particular microlensing reveals the intrinsic absorption hidden in the P Cygni-type line profiles observed in the broad absorption line quasar H1413+117, as well as the existence of an extended continuum source. In addition, polarization microlensing provides constraints on the scattering region. In the quasar Q2237+030, microlensing differently distorts the H$α$ and CIV broad emission line profiles, indicating that the low- and high-ionization broad emission lines must originate from regions with distinct kinematical properties. We also present simulations of the effect of microlensing on line profiles considering simple but representative models of the broad emission line region. Comparison of observations to simulations allows us to conclude that the H$α$ emitting region in Q2237+030 is best represented by a Keplerian disk.

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H0LiCOW VII. Cosmic evolution of the correlation between black hole mass and host galaxy luminosity

Strongly lensed active galactic nuclei (AGN) provide a unique opportunity to make progress in the study of the evolution of the correlation between the mass of supermassive black holes ($\mathcal M_{BH}$) and their host galaxy luminosity ($L_{host}$). We demonstrate the power of lensing by analyzing two systems for which state-of-the-art lens modelling techniques have been applied to Hubble Space Telescope imaging data. We use i) the reconstructed images to infer the total and bulge luminosity of the host and ii) published broad-line spectroscopy to estimate $\mathcal M_{BH}$ using the so-called virial method. We then enlarge our sample with new calibration of previously published measurements to study the evolution of the correlation out to z~4.5. Consistent with previous work, we find that without taking into account passive luminosity evolution, the data points lie on the local relation. Once passive luminosity evolution is taken into account, we find that BHs in the more distant Universe reside in less luminous galaxies than today. Fitting this offset as $\mathcal M_{BH}$/$L_{host}$ $\propto$ (1+z)$^γ$, and taking into account selection effects, we obtain $γ$ = 0.6 $\pm$ 0.1 and 0.8$\pm$ 0.1 for the case of $\mathcal M_{BH}$-$L_{bulge}$ and $\mathcal M_{BH}$-$L_{total}$, respectively. To test for systematic uncertainties and selection effects we also consider a reduced sample that is homogeneous in data quality. We find consistent results but with considerably larger uncertainty due to the more limited sample size and redshift coverage ($γ$ = 0.7 $\pm$ 0.4 and 0.2$\pm$ 0.5 for $\mathcal M_{BH}$-$L_{bulge}$ and $\mathcal M_{BH}$-$L_{total}$, respectively), highlighting the need to gather more high-quality data for high-redshift lensed quasar hosts. Our result is consistent with a scenario where the growth of the black hole predates that of the host galaxy.

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The inner structure of early-type galaxies in the Illustris simulation

Early-type galaxies provide unique tests for the predictions of the cold dark matter cosmology and the baryonic physics assumptions entering models for galaxy formation. In this work, we use the Illustris simulation to study correlations of three main properties of early-type galaxies, namely, the stellar orbital anisotropies, the central dark matter fractions and the central radial density slopes, as well as their redshift evolution since $z=1.0$. We find that lower-mass galaxies or galaxies at higher redshift tend to be bluer in rest-frame colour, have higher central gas fractions, and feature more tangentially anisotropic orbits and steeper central density slopes than their higher-mass or lower-redshift counterparts, respectively. The projected central dark matter fraction within the effective radius shows a very mild mass dependence but positively correlates with galaxy effective radii due to the aperture effect. The central density slopes obtained by combining strong lensing measurements with single aperture kinematics are found to differ from the true density slopes. We identify systematic biases in this measurement to be due to two common modelling assumptions, isotropic stellar orbital distributions and power-law density profiles. We also compare the properties of early-type galaxies in Illustris to those from existing galaxy and strong lensing surveys, we find in general broad agreement but also some tension, which poses a potential challenge to the stellar formation and feedback models adopted by the simulation.

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Lens galaxies in the Illustris simulation: power-law models and the bias of the Hubble constant from time-delays

A power-law density model, i.e., $ρ(r) \propto r^{-γ'}$ has been commonly employed in strong gravitational lensing studies, including the so-called time-delay technique used to infer the Hubble constant $H_0$. However, since the radial scale at which strong lensing features are formed corresponds to the transition from the dominance of baryonic matter to dark matter, there is no known reason why galaxies should follow a power law in density. The assumption of a power law artificially breaks the mass-sheet degeneracy, a well-known invariance transformation in gravitational lensing which affects the product of Hubble constant and time delay and can therefore cause a bias in the determination of $H_0$ from the time-delay technique. In this paper, we use the Illustris hydrodynamical simulations to estimate the amplitude of this bias, and to understand how it is related to observational properties of galaxies. Investigating a large sample of Illustris galaxies that have velocity dispersion $σ_{SIE}$>160 km/s at redshifts below $z=1$, we find that the bias on $H_0$ introduced by the power-law assumption can reach 20%-50%, with a scatter of $10\%-30\%$ (rms). However, we find that by selecting galaxies with an inferred power-law model slope close to isothermal, it is possible to reduce the bias on $H_0$ to <5%, and the scatter to <10%. This could potentially be used to form less biased statistical samples for $H_0$ measurements in the upcoming large survey era.

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H0LiCOW IV. Lens mass model of HE 0435-1223 and blind measurement of its time-delay distance for cosmology

Strong gravitational lenses with measured time delays between the multiple images allow a direct measurement of the time-delay distance to the lens, and thus a measure of cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant, $H_{0}$. We present a blind lens model analysis of the quadruply-imaged quasar lens HE 0435-1223 using deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging, updated time-delay measurements from the COSmological MOnitoring of GRAvItational Lenses (COSMOGRAIL), a measurement of the velocity dispersion of the lens galaxy based on Keck data, and a characterization of the mass distribution along the line of sight. HE 0435-1223 is the third lens analyzed as a part of the $H_{0}$ Lenses in COSMOGRAIL's Wellspring (H0LiCOW) project. We account for various sources of systematic uncertainty, including the detailed treatment of nearby perturbers, the parameterization of the galaxy light and mass profile, and the regions used for lens modeling. We constrain the effective time-delay distance to be $D_{Δt} = 2612_{-191}^{+208}~\mathrm{Mpc}$, a precision of 7.6%. From HE 0435-1223 alone, we infer a Hubble constant of $H_{0} = 73.1_{-6.0}^{+5.7}~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$ assuming a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology. The cosmographic inference based on the three lenses analyzed by H0LiCOW to date is presented in a companion paper (H0LiCOW Paper V).

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H0LiCOW VI. Testing the fidelity of lensed quasar host galaxy reconstruction

The empirical correlation between the mass of a super-massive black hole (MBH) and its host galaxy properties is widely considered to be evidence of their co-evolution. A powerful way to test the co-evolution scenario and learn about the feedback processes linking galaxies and nuclear activity is to measure these correlations as a function of redshift. Unfortunately, currently MBH can only be estimated in active galaxies at cosmological distances. At these distances, bright active galactic nuclei (AGN) can outshine the host galaxy, making it extremely difficult to measure the host's luminosity. Strongly lensed AGNs provide in principle a great opportunity to improve the sensitivity and accuracy of the host galaxy luminosity measurements as the host galaxy is magnified and more easily separated from the point source, provided the lens model is sufficiently accurate. In order to measure the MBH-L correlation with strong lensing, it is necessary to ensure that the lens modelling is accurate, and that the host galaxy luminosity can be recovered to at least a precision and accuracy better than that of the typical MBH measurement. We carry out extensive and realistic simulations of deep Hubble Space Telescope observations of lensed AGNs obtained by our collaboration. We show that the host galaxy luminosity can be recovered with better accuracy and precision than the typical uncertainty on MBH(~ 0.5 dex) for hosts as faint as 2-4 magnitudes dimmer than the AGN itself. Our simulations will be used to estimate bias and uncertainties on the actual measurements to be presented in a future paper.

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H0LiCOW III. Quantifying the effect of mass along the line of sight to the gravitational lens HE 0435-1223 through weighted galaxy counts

Based on spectroscopy and multiband wide-field observations of the gravitationally lensed quasar HE 0435-1223, we determine the probability distribution function of the external convergence $κ_\mathrm{ext}$ for this system. We measure the under/overdensity of the line of sight towards the lens system and compare it to the average line of sight throughout the universe, determined by using the CFHTLenS as a control field. Aiming to constrain $κ_\mathrm{ext}$ as tightly as possible, we determine under/overdensities using various combinations of relevant informative weighing schemes for the galaxy counts, such as projected distance to the lens, redshift, and stellar mass. We then convert the measured under/overdensities into a $κ_\mathrm{ext}$ distribution, using ray-tracing through the Millennium Simulation. We explore several limiting magnitudes and apertures, and account for systematic and statistical uncertainties relevant to the quality of the observational data, which we further test through simulations. Our most robust estimate of $κ_\mathrm{ext}$ has a median value $κ^\mathrm{med}_\mathrm{ext} = 0.004$ and a standard deviation of $σ_κ= 0.025$. The measured $σ_κ$ corresponds to $2.5\%$ uncertainty on the time delay distance, and hence the Hubble constant $H_0$ inference from this system. The median $κ^\mathrm{med}_\mathrm{ext}$ value is robust to $\sim0.005$ (i.e. $\sim0.5\%$ on $H_0$) regardless of the adopted aperture radius, limiting magnitude and weighting scheme, as long as the latter incorporates galaxy number counts, the projected distance to the main lens, and a prior on the external shear obtained from mass modeling. The availability of a well-constrained $κ_\mathrm{ext}$ makes \hequad\ a valuable system for measuring cosmological parameters using strong gravitational lens time delays.

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Ambiguities in gravitational lens models: the density field from the source position transformation

Strong gravitational lensing is regarded as the most precise technique to measure the mass in the inner region of galaxies or galaxy clusters. In particular, the mass within one Einstein radius can be determined with an accuracy of order of a few percent or better, depending on the image configuration. For other radii, however, degeneracies exist between galaxy density profiles, precluding an accurate determination of the enclosed mass. The source position transformation (SPT), which includes the well-known mass-sheet transformation (MST) as a special case, describes this degeneracy of the lensing observables in a more general way. In this paper we explore properties of an SPT, removing the MST to leading order, i.e., we consider degeneracies which have not been described before. The deflection field $\boldsymbol{\hatα}(\boldsymbolθ)$ resulting from an SPT is not curl-free in general, and thus not a deflection that can be obtained from a lensing mass distribution. Starting from a variational principle, we construct lensing potentials that give rise to a deflection field $\boldsymbol{\tildeα}$, which differs from $\boldsymbol{\hatα}$ by less than an observationally motivated upper limit. The corresponding mass distributions from these 'valid' SPTs are studied: their radial profiles are modified relative to the original mass distribution in a significant and non-trivial way, and originally axi-symmetric mass distributions can obtain a finite ellipticity. These results indicate a significant effect of the SPT on quantitative analyses of lens systems. We show that the mass inside the Einstein radius of the original mass distribution is conserved by the SPT; hence, as is the case for the MST, the SPT does not affect the mass determination at the Einstein radius. [...]

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The different origins of high- and low-ionization broad emission lines revealed by gravitational microlensing in the Einstein cross

We investigate the kinematics and ionization structure of the broad emission line region of the gravitationally lensed quasar QSO2237+0305 (the Einstein cross) using differential microlensing in the high- and low-ionization broad emission lines. We combine visible and near-infrared spectra of the four images of the lensed quasar and detect a large-amplitude microlensing effect distorting the high-ionization CIV and low-ionization H$α$ line profiles in image A. While microlensing only magnifies the red wing of the Balmer line, it symmetrically magnifies the wings of the CIV emission line. Given that the same microlensing pattern magnifies both the high- and low-ionization broad emission line regions, these dissimilar distortions of the line profiles suggest that the high- and low-ionization regions are governed by different kinematics. Since this quasar is likely viewed at intermediate inclination, we argue that the differential magnification of the blue and red wings of H$α$ favors a flattened, virialized, low-ionization region whereas the symmetric microlensing effect measured in CIV can be reproduced by an emission line formed in a polar wind, without the need of fine-tuned caustic configurations.

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Observations of radio-quiet quasars at 10mas resolution by use of gravitational lensing

We present VLA detections of radio emission in four four-image gravitational lens systems with quasar sources: HS0810+2554, RXJ0911+0511, HE0435$-$1223 and SDSSJ0924+0219, and e-MERLIN observations of two of the systems. The first three are detected at a high level of significance, and SDSS J0924+0219 is detected. HS0810+2554 is resolved, allowing us for the first time to achieve 10-mas resolution of the source frame in the structure of a radio quiet quasar. The others are unresolved or marginally resolved. All four objects are among the faintest radio sources yet detected, with intrinsic flux densities in the range 1-5$μ$Jy; such radio objects, if unlensed, will only be observable routinely with the Square Kilometre Array. The observations of HS0810+2554, which is also detected with e-MERLIN, strongly suggest the presence of a mini-AGN, with a radio core and milliarcsecond scale jet. The flux densities of the lensed images in all but HE0435-1223 are consistent with smooth galaxy lens models without the requirement for smaller-scale substructure in the model, although some interesting anomalies are seen between optical and radio flux densities. These are probably due to microlensing effects in the optical.

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How well can cold-dark-matter substructures account for the observed radio flux-ratio anomalies?

Discrepancies between the observed and model-predicted radio flux ratios are seen in a number of quadruply-lensed quasars. The most favored interpretation of these anomalies is that CDM substructures present in lensing galaxies perturb the lens potentials and alter image magnifications and thus flux ratios. So far no consensus has emerged regarding whether or not the predicted CDM substructure abundance fully accounts for the lensing flux anomaly observations. Accurate modeling relies on a realistic lens sample in terms of both the lens environment and internal structures and substructures. In this paper we construct samples of generalised and specific lens potentials, to which we add (rescaled) subhalo populations from the galaxy-scale Aquarius and the cluster-scale Phoenix simulation suites. We further investigate the lensing effects from subhalos of masses several orders of magnitude below the simulation resolution limit. The resulting flux ratio distributions are compared to the currently best available sample of radio lenses. The observed anomalies in B0128+437, B0712+472 and B1555+375 are more likely to be caused by propagation effects or oversimplified lens modeling, signs of which are already seen in the data. Among the quadruple systems that have closely located image triplets/pairs, the anomalous flux ratios of MG0414+0534 can be reproduced by adding CDM subhalos to its macroscopic lens potential, with a probability of 5%-20%; for B0712+472, B1422+231, B1555+375 and B2045+265, these probabilities are only of a few percent. We hence find that CDM substructures are unlikely to be the whole reason for radio flux anomalies. We discuss other possible effects that might also be at work.

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