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Donald Aadithiyan

Publications and source records attributed to Donald Aadithiyan.

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Reading the Room: Implicit Confusion Encoding in Recurrent World Model States

World models built on the RSSM architecture, such as DreamerV3, keep a recurrent hidden state $h_t$ trained only to reduce prediction error. We show this state also tracks its own confusion, hiding in plain sight: nearly orthogonal to $h_t$'s directions of greatest variance, invisible to any variance-based method. It is functionally distinct from ensemble disagreement, which flags new inputs, and reconstruction error, which flags bad predictions right now. On a test holding prediction error fixed while confusion varies, a linear probe on $h_t$ finds the signal (AUROC 0.72, 5 runs), while an ensemble baseline scores below chance. A discounted count of recent high-error steps explains 80% of the probe's output ($R^2=0.80$). We confirm the signal is causally used, not merely present, by editing $h_t$ directly and watching behaviour change, including a check using real values from other trajectories instead of synthetic edits. Its geometry and closed form generalize across three control tasks; the decisive dissociation test itself holds cleanly on only one, and its practical use, deciding when to check reality instead of trusting imagination, generalizes to only two of the three tasks.

cs.LG

Reaching the Tail: Calibration Diversity Drives Conformal Coverage under Data Scarcity

Multi-horizon rare-event forecasting is hard under long macroeconomic series' data constraints: labeled events are scarce, and standard uncertainty quantification assumes an exchangeability that autocorrelation violates. A controlled ablation shows an apparent rare-event threshold for Adaptive Conformal Inference instead reflects calibration-set size. Across 200 random calibration sets, support width of the nonconformity-score distribution explains up to 85% of coverage variance versus 2% for rare-event count; the same, not the same magnitude, replicates across synthetic conditions and five countries (five-country Spearman $\rho$ 0.45-0.66 vs. 0.02-0.23). A diversity-maximizing selector built on this is the only strategy tested that improves long-horizon coverage (67.8% to 81.4% at six months); Mondrian, shift-robust, and extreme-value alternatives fail to close it. Mondrian even worsens coverage under oracle labels. A compact proposition explains why: coverage deficit reflects how closely the calibration set's upper quantile reaches the test distribution's. Diversity is necessary, not sufficient. Demonstrated on a two-stage U.S. recession-forecasting framework with RegressorChain, whether six-month coverage reaches 90% under honest scoring remains open, a question this paper quantifies rather than resolves.

cs.LG