arXiv subjects

Dongjin Song

Publications and source records attributed to Dongjin Song.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Adaptive von Mises-Fisher Likelihood Loss for Supervised Deep Time Series Hashing

Indexing time series by creating compact binary representations is a fundamental task in time series data mining. Recently, deep learning-based hashing methods have proven effective for indexing time series based on semantic meaning rather than just raw similarity. The purpose of deep hashing is to map samples with the same semantic meaning to identical binary hash codes, enabling more efficient search and retrieval. Unlike other supervised representation learning methods, supervised deep hashing requires a discretization step to convert real-valued representations into binary codes, but this can induce significant information loss. In this paper, we propose a von Mises-Fisher (vMF) hashing loss. The proposed deep hashing model maps data to an M-dimensional hyperspherical space to effectively reduce information loss and models each data class as points following distinct vMF distributions. The designed loss aims to maximize the separation between each modeled vMF distribution to provide a better way to maximize the margin between each semantically different data sample. Experimental results show that our method outperforms existing baselines. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/jmpq97/vmf-hashing

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arXiv2025

Harnessing Vision Models for Time Series Analysis: A Survey

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

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arXiv2025

Federated Distributionally Robust Optimization with Non-Convex Objectives: Algorithm and Analysis

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), which aims to find an optimal decision that minimizes the worst case cost over the ambiguity set of probability distribution, has been widely applied in diverse applications, e.g., network behavior analysis, risk management, etc. However, existing DRO techniques face three key challenges: 1) how to deal with the asynchronous updating in a distributed environment; 2) how to leverage the prior distribution effectively; 3) how to properly adjust the degree of robustness according to different scenarios. To this end, we propose an asynchronous distributed algorithm, named Asynchronous Single-looP alternatIve gRadient projEction (ASPIRE) algorithm with the itErative Active SEt method (EASE) to tackle the federated distributionally robust optimization (FDRO) problem. Furthermore, a new uncertainty set, i.e., constrained D-norm uncertainty set, is developed to effectively leverage the prior distribution and flexibly control the degree of robustness. Finally, our theoretical analysis elucidates that the proposed algorithm is guaranteed to converge and the iteration complexity is also analyzed. Extensive empirical studies on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method can not only achieve fast convergence, and remain robust against data heterogeneity as well as malicious attacks, but also tradeoff robustness with performance.

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arXiv2025

From Images to Signals: Are Large Vision Models Useful for Time Series Analysis?

Transformer-based models have gained increasing attention in time series research, driving interest in Large Language Models (LLMs) and foundation models for time series analysis. As the field moves toward multi-modality, Large Vision Models (LVMs) are emerging as a promising direction. In the past, the effectiveness of Transformer and LLMs in time series has been debated. When it comes to LVMs, a similar question arises: are LVMs truely useful for time series analysis? To address it, we design and conduct the first principled study involving 4 LVMs, 8 imaging methods, 18 datasets and 26 baselines across both high-level (classification) and low-level (forecasting) tasks, with extensive ablation analysis. Our findings indicate LVMs are indeed useful for time series classification but face challenges in forecasting. Although effective, the contemporary best LVM forecasters are limited to specific types of LVMs and imaging methods, exhibit a bias toward forecasting periods, and have limited ability to utilize long look-back windows. We hope our findings could serve as a cornerstone for future research on LVM- and multimodal-based solutions to different time series tasks.

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arXiv2025

Multi-modal Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey

Multi-modal time series analysis has recently emerged as a prominent research area in data mining, driven by the increasing availability of diverse data modalities, such as text, images, and structured tabular data from real-world sources. However, effective analysis of multi-modal time series is hindered by data heterogeneity, modality gap, misalignment, and inherent noise. Recent advancements in multi-modal time series methods have exploited the multi-modal context via cross-modal interactions based on deep learning methods, significantly enhancing various downstream tasks. In this tutorial and survey, we present a systematic and up-to-date overview of multi-modal time series datasets and methods. We first state the existing challenges of multi-modal time series analysis and our motivations, with a brief introduction of preliminaries. Then, we summarize the general pipeline and categorize existing methods through a unified cross-modal interaction framework encompassing fusion, alignment, and transference at different levels (\textit{i.e.}, input, intermediate, output), where key concepts and ideas are highlighted. We also discuss the real-world applications of multi-modal analysis for both standard and spatial time series, tailored to general and specific domains. Finally, we discuss future research directions to help practitioners explore and exploit multi-modal time series. The up-to-date resources are provided in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/Multi-modal-Time-Series-Analysis

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arXiv2025

Cross-platform Prediction of Depression Treatment Outcome Using Location Sensory Data on Smartphones

Currently, depression treatment relies on closely monitoring patients response to treatment and adjusting the treatment as needed. Using self-reported or physician-administrated questionnaires to monitor treatment response is, however, burdensome, costly and suffers from recall bias. In this paper, we explore using location sensory data collected passively on smartphones to predict treatment outcome. To address heterogeneous data collection on Android and iOS phones, the two predominant smartphone platforms, we explore using domain adaptation techniques to map their data to a common feature space, and then use the data jointly to train machine learning models. Our results show that this domain adaptation approach can lead to significantly better prediction than that with no domain adaptation. In addition, our results show that using location features and baseline self-reported questionnaire score can lead to F1 score up to 0.67, comparable to that obtained using periodic self-reported questionnaires, indicating that using location data is a promising direction for predicting depression treatment outcome.

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arXiv2025

Learning System Dynamics without Forgetting

Observation-based trajectory prediction for systems with unknown dynamics is essential in fields such as physics and biology. Most existing approaches are limited to learning within a single system with fixed dynamics patterns. However, many real-world applications require learning across systems with evolving dynamics patterns, a challenge that has been largely overlooked. To address this, we systematically investigate the problem of Continual Dynamics Learning (CDL), examining task configurations and evaluating the applicability of existing techniques, while identifying key challenges. In response, we propose the Mode-switching Graph ODE (MS-GODE) model, which integrates the strengths LG-ODE and sub-network learning with a mode-switching module, enabling efficient learning over varying dynamics. Moreover, we construct a novel benchmark of biological dynamic systems for CDL, Bio-CDL, featuring diverse systems with disparate dynamics and significantly enriching the research field of machine learning for dynamic systems. Our code available at https://github.com/QueuQ/MS-GODE.

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arXiv2025

From Dense to Sparse: Event Response for Enhanced Residential Load Forecasting

Residential load forecasting (RLF) is crucial for resource scheduling in power systems. Most existing methods utilize all given load records (dense data) to indiscriminately extract the dependencies between historical and future time series. However, there exist important regular patterns residing in the event-related associations among different appliances (sparse knowledge), which have yet been ignored. In this paper, we propose an Event-Response Knowledge Guided approach (ERKG) for RLF by incorporating the estimation of electricity usage events for different appliances, mining event-related sparse knowledge from the load series. With ERKG, the event-response estimation enables portraying the electricity consumption behaviors of residents, revealing regular variations in appliance operational states. To be specific, ERKG consists of knowledge extraction and guidance: i) a forecasting model is designed for the electricity usage events by estimating appliance operational states, aiming to extract the event-related sparse knowledge; ii) a novel knowledge-guided mechanism is established by fusing such state estimates of the appliance events into the RLF model, which can give particular focuses on the patterns of users' electricity consumption behaviors. Notably, ERKG can flexibly serve as a plug-in module to boost the capability of existing forecasting models by leveraging event response. In numerical experiments, extensive comparisons and ablation studies have verified the effectiveness of our ERKG, e.g., over 8% MAE can be reduced on the tested state-of-the-art forecasting models.

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arXiv2024

Rank Supervised Contrastive Learning for Time Series Classification

Recently, various contrastive learning techniques have been developed to categorize time series data and exhibit promising performance. A general paradigm is to utilize appropriate augmentations and construct feasible positive samples such that the encoder can yield robust and discriminative representations by mapping similar data points closer together in the feature space while pushing dissimilar data points farther apart. Despite its efficacy, the fine-grained relative similarity (e.g., rank) information of positive samples is largely ignored, especially when labeled samples are limited. To this end, we present Rank Supervised Contrastive Learning (RankSCL) to perform time series classification. Different from conventional contrastive learning frameworks, RankSCL augments raw data in a targeted way in the embedding space and adopts certain filtering rules to select more informative positive and negative pairs of samples. Moreover, a novel rank loss is developed to assign different weights for different levels of positive samples, enable the encoder to extract the fine-grained information of the same class, and produce a clear boundary among different classes. Thoroughly empirical studies on 128 UCR datasets and 30 UEA datasets demonstrate that the proposed RankSCL can achieve state-of-the-art performance compared to existing baseline methods.

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arXiv2024

$\textbf{S}^2$IP-LLM: Semantic Space Informed Prompt Learning with LLM for Time Series Forecasting

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM ($S^2$IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, $S^2$IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed $S^2$IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

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arXiv2024

Topology-aware Embedding Memory for Continual Learning on Expanding Networks

Memory replay based techniques have shown great success for continual learning with incrementally accumulated Euclidean data. Directly applying them to continually expanding networks, however, leads to the potential memory explosion problem due to the need to buffer representative nodes and their associated topological neighborhood structures. To this end, we systematically analyze the key challenges in the memory explosion problem, and present a general framework, \textit{i.e.}, Parameter Decoupled Graph Neural Networks (PDGNNs) with Topology-aware Embedding Memory (TEM), to tackle this issue. The proposed framework not only reduces the memory space complexity from $\mathcal{O}(nd^L)$ to $\mathcal{O}(n)$~\footnote{$n$: memory budget, $d$: average node degree, $L$: the radius of the GNN receptive field}, but also fully utilizes the topological information for memory replay. Specifically, PDGNNs decouple trainable parameters from the computation ego-subnetwork via \textit{Topology-aware Embeddings} (TEs), which compress ego-subnetworks into compact vectors (\textit{i.e.}, TEs) to reduce the memory consumption. Based on this framework, we discover a unique \textit{pseudo-training effect} in continual learning on expanding networks and this effect motivates us to develop a novel \textit{coverage maximization sampling} strategy that can enhance the performance with a tight memory budget. Thorough empirical studies demonstrate that, by tackling the memory explosion problem and incorporating topological information into memory replay, PDGNNs with TEM significantly outperform state-of-the-art techniques, especially in the challenging class-incremental setting.

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arXiv2024

International Trade Flow Prediction with Bilateral Trade Provisions

This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of traditional models like the Gravity Model of Trade, this study introduces a two-stage approach combining explainable machine learning and factorization models. The first stage employs SHAP Explainer for effective variable selection, identifying key provisions in PTAs, while the second stage utilizes Factorization Machine models to analyze the pairwise interaction effects of these provisions on trade flows. By analyzing comprehensive datasets, the paper demonstrates the efficacy of this approach. The findings not only enhance the predictive accuracy of trade flow models but also offer deeper insights into the complex dynamics of international trade, influenced by specific bilateral trade provisions.

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arXiv2024

Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.

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arXiv2024

Self-Supervised Learning for Time Series Analysis: Taxonomy, Progress, and Prospects

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has recently achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks. The most prominent advantage of SSL is that it reduces the dependence on labeled data. Based on the pre-training and fine-tuning strategy, even a small amount of labeled data can achieve high performance. Compared with many published self-supervised surveys on computer vision and natural language processing, a comprehensive survey for time series SSL is still missing. To fill this gap, we review current state-of-the-art SSL methods for time series data in this article. To this end, we first comprehensively review existing surveys related to SSL and time series, and then provide a new taxonomy of existing time series SSL methods by summarizing them from three perspectives: generative-based, contrastive-based, and adversarial-based. These methods are further divided into ten subcategories with detailed reviews and discussions about their key intuitions, main frameworks, advantages and disadvantages. To facilitate the experiments and validation of time series SSL methods, we also summarize datasets commonly used in time series forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and clustering tasks. Finally, we present the future directions of SSL for time series analysis.

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arXiv2024

Online GNN Evaluation Under Test-time Graph Distribution Shifts

Evaluating the performance of a well-trained GNN model on real-world graphs is a pivotal step for reliable GNN online deployment and serving. Due to a lack of test node labels and unknown potential training-test graph data distribution shifts, conventional model evaluation encounters limitations in calculating performance metrics (e.g., test error) and measuring graph data-level discrepancies, particularly when the training graph used for developing GNNs remains unobserved during test time. In this paper, we study a new research problem, online GNN evaluation, which aims to provide valuable insights into the well-trained GNNs's ability to effectively generalize to real-world unlabeled graphs under the test-time graph distribution shifts. Concretely, we develop an effective learning behavior discrepancy score, dubbed LeBeD, to estimate the test-time generalization errors of well-trained GNN models. Through a novel GNN re-training strategy with a parameter-free optimality criterion, the proposed LeBeD comprehensively integrates learning behavior discrepancies from both node prediction and structure reconstruction perspectives. This enables the effective evaluation of the well-trained GNNs' ability to capture test node semantics and structural representations, making it an expressive metric for estimating the generalization error in online GNN evaluation. Extensive experiments on real-world test graphs under diverse graph distribution shifts could verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, revealing its strong correlation with ground-truth test errors on various well-trained GNN models.

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arXiv2024

Weakly Supervised Change Detection via Knowledge Distillation and Multiscale Sigmoid Inference

Change detection, which aims to detect spatial changes from a pair of multi-temporal images due to natural or man-made causes, has been widely applied in remote sensing, disaster management, urban management, etc. Most existing change detection approaches, however, are fully supervised and require labor-intensive pixel-level labels. To address this, we develop a novel weakly supervised change detection technique via Knowledge Distillation and Multiscale Sigmoid Inference (KD-MSI) that leverages image-level labels. In our approach, the Class Activation Maps (CAM) are utilized not only to derive a change probability map but also to serve as a foundation for the knowledge distillation process. This is done through a joint training strategy of the teacher and student networks, enabling the student network to highlight potential change areas more accurately than teacher network based on image-level labels. Moreover, we designed a Multiscale Sigmoid Inference (MSI) module as a post processing step to further refine the change probability map from the trained student network. Empirical results on three public datasets, i.e., WHU-CD, DSIFN-CD, and LEVIR-CD, demonstrate that our proposed technique, with its integrated training strategy, significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art.

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arXiv2024

Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Recent studies in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting reveal that explicitly modeling the hidden dependencies among different time series can yield promising forecasting performance and reliable explanations. However, modeling variable dependencies remains underexplored when MTS is continuously accumulated under different regimes (stages). Due to the potential distribution and dependency disparities, the underlying model may encounter the catastrophic forgetting problem, i.e., it is challenging to memorize and infer different types of variable dependencies across different regimes while maintaining forecasting performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel Structural Knowledge Informed Continual Learning (SKI-CL) framework to perform MTS forecasting within a continual learning paradigm, which leverages structural knowledge to steer the forecasting model toward identifying and adapting to different regimes, and selects representative MTS samples from each regime for memory replay. Specifically, we develop a forecasting model based on graph structure learning, where a consistency regularization scheme is imposed between the learned variable dependencies and the structural knowledge while optimizing the forecasting objective over the MTS data. As such, MTS representations learned in each regime are associated with distinct structural knowledge, which helps the model memorize a variety of conceivable scenarios and results in accurate forecasts in the continual learning context. Meanwhile, we develop a representation-matching memory replay scheme that maximizes the temporal coverage of MTS data to efficiently preserve the underlying temporal dynamics and dependency structures of each regime. Thorough empirical studies on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate SKI-CL's efficacy and advantages over the state-of-the-art for continual MTS forecasting tasks.

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arXiv2024

Continual Learning on Graphs: Challenges, Solutions, and Opportunities

Continual learning on graph data has recently attracted paramount attention for its aim to resolve the catastrophic forgetting problem on existing tasks while adapting the sequentially updated model to newly emerged graph tasks. While there have been efforts to summarize progress on continual learning research over Euclidean data, e.g., images and texts, a systematic review of progress in continual learning on graphs, a.k.a, continual graph learning (CGL) or lifelong graph learning, is still demanding. Graph data are far more complex in terms of data structures and application scenarios, making CGL task settings, model designs, and applications extremely challenging. To bridge the gap, we provide a comprehensive review of existing continual graph learning (CGL) algorithms by elucidating the different task settings and categorizing the existing methods based on their characteristics. We compare the CGL methods with traditional continual learning techniques and analyze the applicability of the traditional continual learning techniques to CGL tasks. Additionally, we review the benchmark works that are crucial to CGL research. Finally, we discuss the remaining challenges and propose several future directions. We will maintain an up-to-date GitHub repository featuring a comprehensive list of CGL algorithms, accessible at https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/Survey-of-Continual-Learning-on-Graphs.

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