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Dorit M. Hammerling

Publications and source records attributed to Dorit M. Hammerling.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

A Bayesian hierarchical model for methane emission source apportionment

Reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector is a key component of short-term climate action. Emission reduction efforts are often conducted at the individual site-level, where being able to apportion emissions between a finite number of potentially emitting equipment is necessary for leak detection and repair as well as regulatory reporting of annualized emissions. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model, referred to as the multisource detection, localization, and quantification (MDLQ) model, for performing source apportionment on oil and gas sites using methane measurements from point sensor networks. The MDLQ model accounts for autocorrelation in the sensor data and enforces sparsity in the emission rate estimates via a spike-and-slab prior, as oil and gas equipment often emit intermittently. We use the MDLQ model to apportion methane emissions on an experimental oil and gas site designed to release methane in known quantities, providing a means of model evaluation. Data from this experiment are unique in their size (i.e., the number of controlled releases) and in their close approximation of emission characteristics on real oil and gas sites. As such, this study provides a baseline level of apportionment accuracy that can be expected when using point sensor networks on operational sites.

stat.AP

DSSIM: a structural similarity index for floating-point data

Data visualization is a critical component in terms of interacting with floating-point output data from large model simulation codes. Indeed, postprocessing analysis workflows on simulation data often generate a large number of images from the raw data, many of which are then compared to each other or to specified reference images. In this image-comparison scenario, image quality assessment (IQA) measures are quite useful, and the Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) continues to be a popular choice. However, generating large numbers of images can be costly, and plot-specific (but data independent) choices can affect the SSIM value. A natural question is whether we can apply the SSIM directly to the floating-point simulation data and obtain an indication of whether differences in the data are likely to impact a visual assessment, effectively bypassing the creation of a specific set of images from the data. To this end, we propose an alternative to the popular SSIM that can be applied directly to the floating point data, which we refer to as the Data SSIM (DSSIM). While we demonstrate the usefulness of the DSSIM in the context of evaluating differences due to lossy compression on large volumes of simulation data from a popular climate model, the DSSIM may prove useful for many other applications involving simulation or image data.

stat.CO

Nonstationary Spatial Modeling of Massive Global Satellite Data

Earth-observing satellite instruments obtain a massive number of observations every day. For example, tens of millions of sea surface temperature (SST) observations on a global scale are collected daily by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. Despite their size, such datasets are incomplete and noisy, necessitating spatial statistical inference to obtain complete, high-resolution fields with quantified uncertainties. Such inference is challenging due to the high computational cost, the nonstationary behavior of environmental processes on a global scale, and land barriers affecting the dependence of SST. In this work, we develop a multi-resolution approximation (M-RA) of a Gaussian process (GP) whose nonstationary, global covariance function is obtained using local fits. The M-RA requires domain partitioning, which can be set up application-specifically. In the SST case, we partition the domain purposefully to account for and weaken dependence across land barriers. Our M-RA implementation is tailored to distributed-memory computation in high-performance-computing environments. We analyze a MODIS SST dataset consisting of more than 43 million observations, to our knowledge the largest dataset ever analyzed using a probabilistic GP model. We show that our nonstationary model based on local fits provides substantially improved predictive performance relative to a stationary approach.

stat.AP

Pushing the Limit: A Hybrid Parallel Implementation of the Multi-resolution Approximation for Massive Data

The multi-resolution approximation (MRA) of Gaussian processes was recently proposed to conduct likelihood-based inference for massive spatial data sets. An advantage of the methodology is that it can be parallelized. We implemented the MRA in C++ for both serial and parallel versions. In the parallel implementation, we use a hybrid parallelism that employs both distributed and shared memory computing for communications between and within nodes by using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) and OpenMP, respectively. The performance of the serial code is compared between the C++ and MATLAB implementations over a small data set on a personal laptop. The C++ parallel program is further carefully studied under different configurations by applications to data sets from around a tenth of a million to 47 million observations. We show the practicality of this implementation by demonstrating that we can get quick inference for massive real-world data sets. The serial and parallel C++ code can be found at https://github.com/hhuang90.

stat.CO

Making root cause analysis feasible for large code bases: a solution approach for a climate model

For large-scale simulation codes with huge and complex code bases, where bit-for-bit comparisons are too restrictive, finding the source of statistically significant discrepancies (e.g., from a previous version, alternative hardware or supporting software stack) in output is non-trivial at best. Although there are many tools for program comprehension through debugging or slicing, few (if any) scale to a model as large as the Community Earth System Model (CESM; trademarked), which consists of more than 1.5 million lines of Fortran code. Currently for the CESM, we can easily determine whether a discrepancy exists in the output using a by now well-established statistical consistency testing tool. However, this tool provides no information as to the possible cause of the detected discrepancy, leaving developers in a seemingly impossible (and frustrating) situation. Therefore, our aim in this work is to provide the tools to enable developers to trace a problem detected through the CESM output to its source. To this end, our strategy is to reduce the search space for the root cause(s) to a tractable size via a series of techniques that include creating a directed graph of internal CESM variables, extracting a subgraph (using a form of hybrid program slicing), partitioning into communities, and ranking nodes by centrality. Runtime variable sampling then becomes feasible in this reduced search space. We demonstrate the utility of this process on multiple examples of CESM simulation output by illustrating how sampling can be performed as part of an efficient parallel iterative refinement procedure to locate error sources, including sensitivity to CPU instructions. By providing CESM developers with tools to identify and understand the reason for statistically distinct output, we have positively impacted the CESM software development cycle and, in particular, its focus on quality assurance.

cs.DC