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Dorival Leão

Publications and source records attributed to Dorival Leão.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Adaptive Learning via Off-Model Training and Importance Sampling for Fully Non-Markovian Optimal Stochastic Control. Complete version

This paper studies continuous-time stochastic control problems whose controlled states are fully non-Markovian and depend on unknown model parameters. Such problems arise naturally in path-dependent stochastic differential equations, rough-volatility hedging, and systems driven by fractional Brownian motion. Building on the discrete skeleton approach developed in earlier work, we propose a Monte Carlo learning methodology for the associated embedded backward dynamic programming equation. Our main contribution is twofold. First, we construct explicit dominating training laws and Radon--Nikodym weights for several representative classes of non-Markovian controlled systems. This yields an off-model training architecture in which a fixed synthetic dataset is generated under a reference law, while the dynamic programming operators associated with a target model are recovered by importance sampling. Second, we use this structure to design an adaptive update mechanism under parametric model uncertainty, so that repeated recalibration can be performed by reweighting the same training sample rather than regenerating new trajectories. For fixed parameters, we establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the approximation of the embedded dynamic programming equation via deep neural networks. For adaptive learning, we derive quantitative estimates that separate Monte Carlo approximation error from model-risk error. Numerical experiments illustrate both the off-model training mechanism and the adaptive importance-sampling update in structured linear-quadratic examples.

stat.ML↗

Sequential Regression Learning with Randomized Algorithms

This paper presents ``randomized SINDy", a sequential machine learning algorithm designed for dynamic data that has a time-dependent structure. It employs a probabilistic approach, with its PAC learning property rigorously proven through the mathematical theory of functional analysis. The algorithm dynamically predicts using a learned probability distribution of predictors, updating weights via gradient descent and a proximal algorithm to maintain a valid probability density. Inspired by SINDy (Brunton et al. 2016), it incorporates feature augmentation and Tikhonov regularization. For multivariate normal weights, the proximal step is omitted to focus on parameter estimation. The algorithm's effectiveness is demonstrated through experimental results in regression and binary classification using real-world data.

stat.ML↗

Solving non-Markovian Stochastic Control Problems driven by Wiener Functionals

In this article, we present a general methodology for stochastic control problems driven by the Brownian motion filtration including non-Markovian and non-semimartingale state processes controlled by mutually singular measures. The main result of this paper is the development of a numerical scheme for computing near-optimal controls associated with controlled Wiener functionals via a finite-dimensional approximation procedure. The approach does not require functional differentiability assumptions on the value process and ellipticity conditions on the diffusion components. The general convergence of the method is established under rather weak conditions for distinct types of non-Markovian and non-semimartingale states. Explicit rates of convergence are provided in case the control acts only on the drift component of the controlled system. Near-closed/open-loop optimal controls are fully characterized by a dynamic programming algorithm and they are classified according to the strength of the possibly underlying non-Markovian memory. The theory is applied to stochastic control problems based on path-dependent SDEs and rough stochastic volatility models, where both drift and possibly degenerated diffusion components are controlled. Optimal control of drifts for nonlinear path-dependent SDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion with exponent $H\in (0,\frac{1}{2})$ is also discussed. Finally, we present a simple numerical example to illustrate the method.

math.PR↗

Data Analysis for Proficiency Testing

Proficiency Testing (PT) determines the performance of individual laboratories for specific tests or measurements and it is used to monitor the reliability of laboratories measurements. PT plays a highly valuable role as it provides an objective evidence of the competence of the participant laboratories. In this paper, we propose a multivariate model to assess equivalence among laboratories measurements in proficiency testing. Our method allow to include type B source of variation and to deal with multivariate data, where the item under test is measured at different levels. Although intuitive, the proposed model is nonergodic, which means that the asymptotic Fisher information matrix is random. As a consequence, a detailed asymptotic analysis was carried out to establish the strategy for comparing the results of the participating laboratories. To illustrate, we apply our method to analyze the data from the Brazilian Engine test group, PT program, where the power of an engine was measured by 8 laboratories at several levels of rotation.

math.ST↗

Discrete-type approximations for non-Markovian optimal stopping problems: Part I

In this paper, we present a discrete-type approximation scheme to solve continuous-time optimal stopping problems based on fully non-Markovian continuous processes adapted to the Brownian motion filtration. The approximations satisfy suitable variational inequalities which allow us to construct $ε$-optimal stopping times and optimal values in full generality. Explicit rates of convergence are presented for optimal values based on reward functionals of path-dependent SDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion. In particular, the methodology allows us to design concrete Monte-Carlo schemes for non-Markovian optimal stopping time problems as demonstrated in the companion paper by Bezerra, Ohashi and Russo.

math.PR↗

Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Protein Structure Prediction

Proteins are essential for maintaining life. For example, knowing the structure of a protein, cell regulatory mechanisms of organisms can be modeled, supporting the development of disease treatments or the understanding of relationships between protein structures and food attributes. However, discovering the structure of a protein can be a difficult and expensive task, since it is hard to explore the large search to predict even a small protein. Template-based methods (coarse-grained, homology, threading etc) depend on Prior Knowledge (PK) of proteins determined using other methods as X-Ray Crystallography or Nuclear Magnetic Resonance. On the other hand, template-free methods (full-atom and ab initio) rely on atoms physical-chemical properties to predict protein structures. In comparison with other approaches, the Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs) can require significant less PK, suggesting that it could be adequate for proteins of low-level of PK. Finding an EDA able to handle both prediction quality and computational time is a difficult task, since they are strong inversely correlated. We developed an EDA specific for the ab initio Protein Structure Prediction (PSP) problem using full-atom representation. We developed one univariate and two bivariate probabilistic models in order to design a proper EDA for PSP. The bivariate models make relationships between dihedral angles $ϕ$ and $ψ$ within an amino acid. Furthermore, we compared the proposed EDA with other approaches from the literature. We noticed that even a relatively simple algorithm such as Random Walk can find the correct solution, but it would require a large amount of prior knowledge (biased prediction). On the other hand, our EDA was able to correctly predict with no prior knowledge at all, characterizing such a prediction as pure ab initio.

q-bio.BM↗

Weak differentiability of Wiener functionals and occupation times

In this paper, we establish a universal variational characterization of the non-martingale components associated with weakly differentiable Wiener functionals in the sense of Leão, Ohashi and Simas. It is shown that any Dirichlet process (in particular semimartingales) is a differential form w.r.t Brownian motion driving noise. The drift components are characterized in terms of limits of integral functionals of horizontal-type perturbations and first-order variation driven by a two-parameter occupation time process. Applications to a class of path-dependent rough transformations of Brownian paths under finite $p$-variation ($p\ge 2$) regularity is also discussed. Under stronger regularity conditions in the sense of finite $(p,q)$-variation, the connection between weak differentiability and two-parameter local time integrals in the sense of Young is established.

math.PR↗

Stochastic Near-Optimal Controls for Path-Dependent Systems

In this article, we present a general methodology for control problems driven by the Brownian motion filtration including non-Markovian and non-semimartingale state processes controlled by mutually singular measures. The main result of this paper is the development of a concrete pathwise method for characterizing and computing near-optimal controls for abstract controlled Wiener functionals. The theory does not require ad hoc functional differentiability assumptions on the value process and elipticity conditions on the diffusion components. The analysis is pathwise over suitable finite dimensional spaces and it is based on the weak differential structure introduced by Leão, Ohashi and Simas jointly with measurable selection arguments. The theory is applied to stochastic control problems based on path-dependent SDEs where both drift and possibly degenerated diffusion components are controlled. Optimal control of drifts for path-dependent SDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion is also discussed. We finally provide an application in the context of financial mathematics. Namely, we construct near-optimal controls in a non-Markovian portfolio optimization problem.

math.PR↗

A weak version of path-dependent functional Itô calculus

We introduce a variational theory for processes adapted to the multi-dimensional Brownian motion filtration that provides a differential structure allowing to describe infinitesimal evolution of Wiener functionals at very small scales. The main novel idea is to compute the "sensitivities" of processes, namely derivatives of martingale components and a weak notion of infinitesimal generators, via a finite-dimensional approximation procedure based on controlled inter-arrival times and approximating martingales. The theory comes with convergence results that allow to interpret a large class of Wiener functionals beyond semimartingales as limiting objects of differential forms which can be computed path wisely over finite-dimensional spaces. The theory reveals that solutions of BSDEs are minimizers of energy functionals w.r.t Brownian motion driving noise.

math.PR↗

Weak Functional Itô Calculus and Applications

We introduce a variational theory for processes adapted to the multi-dimensional Brownian motion filtration. The theory provides a differential structure which describes the infinitesimal evolution of Wiener functionals at very small scales. The Markov property is replaced by a finite-dimensional approximation procedure based on controlled inter-arrival times and jumps of approximating martingales. The theory reveals that a large class of adapted processes follow a differential rule which is similar in nature to a fundamental theorem of calculus in the context of Wiener functionals. Null stochastic derivative term turns out to be a non-Markovian version of the classical second order parabolic operator and connections with theory of local-times and $(p,q)$-variation regularity are established. The framework extends the pathwise functional calculus and it opens the way to obtain variational principles for processes. Applications to semi-linear variational equations and stochastic variational inequalities are presented. In particular, we provide a feasible dynamic programming principle for fully non-Markovian/non-semimartingale optimal stopping problems.

math.PR↗

A general Multidimensional Monte Carlo Approach for Dynamic Hedging under stochastic volatility

In this work, we introduce a Monte Carlo method for the dynamic hedging of general European-type contingent claims in a multidimensional Brownian arbitrage-free market. Based on bounded variation martingale approximations for Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decompositions, we propose a feasible and constructive methodology which allows us to compute pure hedging strategies w.r.t arbitrary square-integrable claims in incomplete markets. In particular, the methodology can be applied to quadratic hedging-type strategies for fully path-dependent options with stochastic volatility and discontinuous payoffs. We illustrate the method with numerical examples based on generalized Follmer-Schweizer decompositions, locally-risk minimizing and mean-variance hedging strategies for vanilla and path-dependent options written on local volatility and stochastic volatility models.

q-fin.PR↗

Weak approximations for Wiener functionals

In this paper we introduce a simple space-filtration discretization scheme on Wiener space which allows us to study weak decompositions and smooth explicit approximations for a large class of Wiener functionals. We show that any Wiener functional has an underlying robust semimartingale skeleton which under mild conditions converges to it. The discretization is given in terms of discrete-jumping filtrations which allow us to approximate nonsmooth processes by means of a stochastic derivative operator on the Wiener space. As a by-product, we provide a robust semimartingale approximation for weak Dirichlet-type processes. The underlying semimartingale skeleton is intrinsically constructed in such way that all the relevant structure is amenable to a robust numerical scheme. In order to illustrate the results, we provide an easily implementable approximation scheme for the classical Clark-Ocone formula in full generality. Unlike in previous works, our methodology does not assume an underlying Markovian structure and does not require Malliavin weights. We conclude by proposing a method that enables us to compute optimal stopping times for possibly non-Markovian systems arising, for example, from the fractional Brownian motion.

math.PR↗

On the Discrete Cramér-von Mises Statistics under Random Censorship

In this work, nonparametric log-rank-type statistical tests are introduced in order to verify homogeneity of purely discrete variables subject to arbitrary right-censoring for infinitely many categories. In particular, the Cramér-von Mises test statistics for discrete models under censoring is established. In order to introduce the test, we develop the weighted log-rank statistics in a general multivariate discrete setup which complements previous fundamental results of Gill (1980) and Andersen et al. (1982). Due to the presence of persistent jumps over the unbounded set of categories, the asymptotic distribution of the test is not distribution-free. The statistical test for a large class of weighted processes is described as a weighted series of independent chi-squared variables whose weights can be consistently estimated and the associated limiting covariance operator can be infinite-dimensional. The test is consistent to any alternative hypothesis and, in particular, it allows us to deal with crossing hazard functions. We also provide a simulation study in order to illustrate the theoretical results.

math.ST↗