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Douglas Bates

Publications and source records attributed to Douglas Bates.

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Fitting Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models using lme4

The lme4 R package can be used to fit generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), which extend the class of linear mixed models (LMMs). The two main extensions provided by GLMMs are (1) allowing for the conditional distribution of the response given the random effects to be non-Gaussian (e.g. binomial, Poisson) and (2) allowing the conditional mean to be a nonlinear function of a linear combination of the fixed and random effect coefficients, via an inverse link function. The conditional mode of the random effects given the observed data, the variance-covariance matrix of the random effects, and the fixed effect parameters are determined using penalized iteratively reweighted least squares. We compute an approximation of the integral over the distributions of the conditional modes to compute the maximum likelihood estimate for a given set of parameters (by default we use the Laplace approximation or, alternatively, the more computationally expensive adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature). The package provides all the standard features available for GLMs in base R, including the standard set of accessor functions as well as the possibility of user-specified distributions (within the exponential dispersion family) and link functions.

stat.ME

Mixed-model Log-likelihood Evaluation Via a Blocked Cholesky Factorization

Bates et al. (2015) described the evaluation of the profiled log-likelihood of a linear mixed-effects model by updating a sparse, symmetric positive-definite matrix and computing its Cholesky factor, as implemented in the lme4 package for R. Here we present enhancements to the derivation and theoretical presentation of the result and to its implementation using a blocked Cholesky factorization in the MixedModels$.$jl package for Julia (Bezanson et al., 2017). The gain in computational efficiency is primarily due to three factors: (1) the new derivation allows us to compute the penalized residual sum of squares without computing the conditional estimates of the fixed-effects parameters and the conditional modes of the random effects at each optimization step, (2) the blocked Cholesky representation and careful ordering of the random effects terms reduces the amount of "fill-in" that occurs during the Cholesky factorization, and (3) the multiple dispatch feature of the Julia language allows us to use specialized algorithms for different kinds of matrices instead of relying on generic algorithms during the Cholesky factorization. To show the effectiveness of the blocked Cholesky approach we use it to fit a linear mixed model to over 32 million ratings of movies in the MovieLens ml-32m (Harper and Konstan, 2016) data set. The model incorporates random effects for over 200,000 movies and over 80,000 participants. Further enhancements to these computational methods are suggested.

stat.CO

Balancing Type I Error and Power in Linear Mixed Models

Linear mixed-effects models have increasingly replaced mixed-model analyses of variance for statistical inference in factorial psycholinguistic experiments. Although LMMs have many advantages over ANOVA, like ANOVAs, setting them up for data analysis also requires some care. One simple option, when numerically possible, is to fit the full variance-covariance structure of random effects (the maximal model; Barr et al. 2013), presumably to keep Type I error down to the nominal alpha in the presence of random effects. Although it is true that fitting a model with only random intercepts may lead to higher Type I error, fitting a maximal model also has a cost: it can lead to a significant loss of power. We demonstrate this with simulations and suggest that for typical psychological and psycholinguistic data, higher power is achieved without inflating Type I error rate if a model selection criterion is used to select a random effect structure that is supported by the data.

stat.AP

The cave of Shadows. Addressing the human factor with generalized additive mixed models

Generalized additive mixed models are introduced as an extension of the generalized linear mixed model which makes it possible to deal with temporal autocorrelational structure in experimental data. This autocorrelational structure is likely to be a consequence of learning, fatigue, or the ebb and flow of attention within an experiment (the `human factor'). Unlike molecules or plots of barley, subjects in psycholinguistic experiments are intelligent beings that depend for their survival on constant adaptation to their environment, including the environment of an experiment. Three data sets illustrate that the human factor may interact with predictors of interest, both factorial and metric. We also show that, especially within the framework of the generalized additive model, in the nonlinear world, fitting maximally complex models that take every possible contingency into account is ill-advised as a modeling strategy. Alternative modeling strategies are discussed for both confirmatory and exploratory data analysis.

stat.AP

Parsimonious Mixed Models

The analysis of experimental data with mixed-effects models requires decisions about the specification of the appropriate random-effects structure. Recently, Barr, Levy, Scheepers, and Tily, 2013 recommended fitting `maximal' models with all possible random effect components included. Estimation of maximal models, however, may not converge. We show that failure to converge typically is not due to a suboptimal estimation algorithm, but is a consequence of attempting to fit a model that is too complex to be properly supported by the data, irrespective of whether estimation is based on maximum likelihood or on Bayesian hierarchical modeling with uninformative or weakly informative priors. Importantly, even under convergence, overparameterization may lead to uninterpretable models. We provide diagnostic tools for detecting overparameterization and guiding model simplification.

stat.ME

Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models using lme4

Maximum likelihood or restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimates of the parameters in linear mixed-effects models can be determined using the lmer function in the lme4 package for R. As for most model-fitting functions in R, the model is described in an lmer call by a formula, in this case including both fixed- and random-effects terms. The formula and data together determine a numerical representation of the model from which the profiled deviance or the profiled REML criterion can be evaluated as a function of some of the model parameters. The appropriate criterion is optimized, using one of the constrained optimization functions in R, to provide the parameter estimates. We describe the structure of the model, the steps in evaluating the profiled deviance or REML criterion, and the structure of classes or types that represents such a model. Sufficient detail is included to allow specialization of these structures by users who wish to write functions to fit specialized linear mixed models, such as models incorporating pedigrees or smoothing splines, that are not easily expressible in the formula language used by lmer.

stat.CO