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Dragan Huterer

Publications and source records attributed to Dragan Huterer.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined II: The Hubble Constant Tension

The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, that has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in portion the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the $4.4σ$ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting new physics models that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade experiments will be crucial.

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arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined I: Perspectives for the Next Decade

The standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides an amazing description of a wide range of astrophysical and astronomical data. However, there are a few big open questions, that make the standard model look like a first-order approximation to a more realistic scenario that still needs to be fully understood. In this Letter of Interest we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances present between the different cosmological probes, as the Hubble constant $H_0$ value, the $σ_8 - S_8$ tension, and the anomalies present in the Planck results. Finally, we will give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space-missions and facilities on Earth, that will be of crucial importance to address all these questions.

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arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined IV: The Age of the Universe and its Curvature

A precise measurement of the curvature of the Universe is of primeval importance for cosmology since it could not only confirm the paradigm of primordial inflation but also help in discriminating between different early Universe scenarios. The recent observations, while broadly consistent with a spatially flat standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) model, are showing tensions that still allow (and, in some cases, even suggest) a few percent deviations from a flat universe. In particular, the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background power spectra, assuming the nominal likelihood, prefer a closed universe at more than 99\% confidence level. While new physics could be in action, this anomaly may be the result of an unresolved systematic error or just a statistical fluctuation. However, since a positive curvature allows a larger age of the Universe, an accurate determination of the age of the oldest objects provides a smoking gun in confirming or falsifying the current flat $Λ$CDM model.

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arXiv2020

Mitigating contamination in LSS surveys: a comparison of methods

Future large scale structure surveys will measure the locations and shapes of billions of galaxies. The precision of such catalogs will require meticulous treatment of systematic contamination of the observed fields. We compare several existing methods for removing such systematics from galaxy clustering measurements. We show how all the methods, including the popular pseudo-$C_\ell$ Mode Projection and Template Subtraction methods, can be interpreted under a common regression framework and use this to suggest improved estimators. We show how methods designed to mitigate systematics in the power spectrum can be used to produce clean maps, which are necessary for cosmological analyses beyond the power spectrum, and we extend current methods to treat the next-order multiplicative contamination in observed maps and power spectra. Two new mitigation methods are proposed, which incorporate desirable features of current state-of-the-art methods while being simpler to implement. Investigating the performance of all the methods on a common set of simulated measurements from Year 5 of the Dark Energy Survey, we test their robustness to various analysis cases. Our proposed methods produce improved maps and power spectra when compared to current methods, while requiring almost no user tuning. We end with recommendations for systematics mitigation in future surveys, and note that the methods presented are generally applicable beyond the galaxy distribution to any field with spatial systematics.

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arXiv2020

Super-CMB fluctuations and the Hubble tension

We study the covariance in the angular power spectrum estimates of CMB fluctuations when the primordial fluctuations are non-Gaussian. The non-Gaussian covariance comes from a nonzero connected four-point correlation function -- or the trispectrum in Fourier space -- and can be large when long-wavelength (super-CMB) modes are strongly coupled to short-wavelength modes. The effect of such non-Gaussian covariance can be modeled through additional freedom in the theoretical CMB angular power spectrum and can lead to different inferred values of the standard cosmological parameters relative to those in $Λ$CDM. Taking the collapsed limit of the primordial trispectrum in the quasi-single field inflation model as an example, we study how the six standard $Λ$CDM parameters shift when two additional parameters describing the trispectrum are allowed. The reduced statistical significance of the Hubble tension in the extended model allows us to combine the {\it Planck} temperature data and the type Ia supernovae data from Panstarrs with the distance-ladder measurement of the Hubble constant. This combination of data shows strong evidence for a primordial trispectrum-induced non-Gaussian covariance, with a likelihood improvement of $Δχ^2 \approx -15$ (with two additional parameters) relative to $Λ$CDM.

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arXiv2020

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cluster Abundances and Weak Lensing

We perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =σ_8(Ω_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $Ω_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $σ_8-Ω_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4σ$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6σ$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($λ\ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model.

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arXiv2019

Percent-Level Test of Isotropic Expansion Using Type Ia Supernovae

We propose and implement a novel, robust, and non-parametric test of statistical isotropy of the expansion of the universe, and apply it to around one thousand type Ia supernovae from the Pantheon sample. We calculate the angular clustering of supernova magnitude residuals and compare it to the noise expected under the isotropic assumption. We also test for systematic effects and demonstrate that their effects are negligible or are already accounted for in our procedure. We express our constraints as an upper limit on the rms spatial variation in the Hubble parameter at late times. For the sky smoothed with a Gaussian with fwhm=60 deg, less than 1% rms spatial variation in the Hubble parameter is allowed at 99.7% confidence.

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arXiv2019

Inflation and Dark Energy from spectroscopy at $z > 2$

The expansion of the Universe is understood to have accelerated during two epochs: in its very first moments during a period of Inflation and much more recently, at $z < 1$, when Dark Energy is hypothesized to drive cosmic acceleration. The undiscovered mechanisms behind these two epochs represent some of the most important open problems in fundamental physics. The large cosmological volume at $2 < z < 5$, together with the ability to efficiently target high-$z$ galaxies with known techniques, enables large gains in the study of Inflation and Dark Energy. A future spectroscopic survey can test the Gaussianity of the initial conditions up to a factor of ~50 better than our current bounds, crossing the crucial theoretical threshold of $σ(f_{NL}^{\rm local})$ of order unity that separates single field and multi-field models. Simultaneously, it can measure the fraction of Dark Energy at the percent level up to $z = 5$, thus serving as an unprecedented test of the standard model and opening up a tremendous discovery space.

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arXiv2019

Primordial Non-Gaussianity

Our current understanding of the Universe is established through the pristine measurements of structure in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the distribution and shapes of galaxies tracing the large scale structure (LSS) of the Universe. One key ingredient that underlies cosmological observables is that the field that sources the observed structure is assumed to be initially Gaussian with high precision. Nevertheless, a minimal deviation from Gaussianityis perhaps the most robust theoretical prediction of models that explain the observed Universe; itis necessarily present even in the simplest scenarios. In addition, most inflationary models produce far higher levels of non-Gaussianity. Since non-Gaussianity directly probes the dynamics in the early Universe, a detection would present a monumental discovery in cosmology, providing clues about physics at energy scales as high as the GUT scale.

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arXiv2019

Messengers from the Early Universe: Cosmic Neutrinos and Other Light Relics

The hot dense environment of the early universe is known to have produced large numbers of baryons, photons, and neutrinos. These extreme conditions may have also produced other long-lived species, including new light particles (such as axions or sterile neutrinos) or gravitational waves. The gravitational effects of any such light relics can be observed through their unique imprint in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the large-scale structure, and the primordial light element abundances, and are important in determining the initial conditions of the universe. We argue that future cosmological observations, in particular improved maps of the CMB on small angular scales, can be orders of magnitude more sensitive for probing the thermal history of the early universe than current experiments. These observations offer a unique and broad discovery space for new physics in the dark sector and beyond, even when its effects would not be visible in terrestrial experiments or in astrophysical environments. A detection of an excess light relic abundance would be a clear indication of new physics and would provide the first direct information about the universe between the times of reheating and neutrino decoupling one second later.

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arXiv2018

Covariance of CMB anomalies

Several unexpected features are observed at large angular scales in the CMB temperature anisotropy measurements by both WMAP and Planck. These include the lack of both variance and correlation, alignment of the lowest multipole moments with one another, hemispherical power asymmetry, and an odd-to-even parity excess. In this work, we study the statistics of eight representative large-angle CMB features in order to evaluate their covariance in LCDM. We do so using two sets of simulated CMB temperature maps; an ensemble of 100,000 simple Gaussian simulations, and 1000 Full Focal Plane (FFP) simulations provided by the Planck collaboration. In measuring feature probabilities, we pay particular attention to analysis choices, making sure that we can reproduce previous results in the literature, and explain differences where appropriate. The covariance structure we find is consistent with expectations given that many of the features studied are functions of the angular power spectrum. Notably, we find significant differences in the covariance entries associated with the quadrupole-octopole alignments derived from the Gaussian and FFP simulations. We additionally perform a principal component analysis to quantitatively gauge what combinations of features capture the most information about how simulation measurements vary, and to provide an alternative assessment of the ways in which the real sky is anomalous. The first four principal components explain about 90\% of the simulations' variance, with the first two roughly quantifying the lack of large-angle correlations, and the next two quantifying the phase-dependent anomalies (multipole alignments and power asymmetry). Though the results of this analysis are fairly unsurprising, its comprehensive approach serves to tie together a number of previous results, and will therefore provide context for future studies of large-angle anomalies.

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arXiv2018

A new measure of tension between experiments

Tensions between cosmological measurements by different surveys or probes have always been important --- and are presently much discussed --- as they may lead to evidence of new physics. Several tests have been devised to probe the consistency of datasets given a cosmological model, but they often have undesired features such as dependence on the prior volume, or burdensome requirements such as that of near-Gaussian posterior distributions. We propose a new quantity, defined in a similar way as the Bayesian evidence ratio, in which these undesired properties are absent. We test the quantity on simple models with Gaussian and non-Gaussian likelihoods. We then apply it to data from the Planck satellite: we investigate the consistency of $Λ$CDM model parameters obtained from TT and EE angular power spectrum measurements, as well as the mutual consistency of cosmological parameters obtained from large scale (multipoles, $\ell<1000$) and small scale ($\ell \geq 1000$) portions of each measurement and find no significant discrepancy in the six-dimensional $Λ$CDM parameter space.

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arXiv2018

The Quest for the Inflationary Spectral Runnings in the Presence of Systematic Errors

Cosmological inflation predicts that the scalar spectral index "runs" with scale. Constraints on the values of the spectral runnings, $α_s\equiv \textrm{d} n_s/\textrm{d}\ln k$ and $β_s\equiv \textrm{d}α_s/\textrm{d}\ln k$, therefore provide a fundamental test of the physics of inflation. Here we study the feasibility of measuring the runnings when information from upcoming large-volume galaxy surveys is used to supplement the information provided by a CMB-S4 experiment, particularly focusing on the effect of including high-$k$, nonlinear scales. Since these measurements will be sensitive to modeling uncertainties for the nonlinear power spectrum, we examine how three different ways of parameterizing those systematics---introducing zero, two, or several hundred nuisance parameters---affect constraints and protect against parameter biases. Considering statistical errors alone, we find that including strongly nonlinear scales can substantially tighten constraints. However, these constraints weaken to levels not much better than those from a CMB-S4 experiment alone when we limit our analysis to scales where estimates are not strongly affected by systematic biases. Given these considerations, near-future large-scale structure surveys are unlikely to add much information to the CMB-S4 measurement of the first running $α_s$. There is more potential for improvement for the second running, $β_s$, for which large-scale structure information will allow constraints to be improved by a factor of 3--4 relative to using the CMB alone. Though these constraints are still above the value predicted by slow roll inflation, they do probe regions of parameter space relevant to nonstandard inflationary models with large runnings, for example those that can generate an appreciable abundance of primordial black holes.

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arXiv2018

Integrated Sachs-Wolfe map reconstruction in the presence of systematic errors

The decay of gravitational potentials in the presence of dark energy leads to an additional, late-time contribution to anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at large angular scales. The imprint of this so-called integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect to the CMB angular power spectrum has been detected and studied in detail, but reconstructing its spatial contributions to the CMB $\textit{map}$, which would offer the tantalizing possibility of separating the early- from the late-time contributions to CMB temperature fluctuations, is more challenging. Here we study the technique for reconstructing the ISW map based on information from galaxy surveys and focus in particular on how its accuracy is impacted by the presence of photometric calibration errors in input galaxy maps, which were previously found to be a dominant contaminant for ISW signal estimation. We find that both including tomographic information from a single survey and using data from multiple, complementary galaxy surveys improve the reconstruction by effectively self-calibrating the estimator against spurious power contributions from calibration errors. A high-fidelity reconstruction further requires one to account for the contribution of calibration errors to the observed galaxy power spectrum in the model used to construct the ISW estimator. We find that if the photometric calibration errors in galaxy surveys can be independently controlled at the level required to obtain unbiased dark energy constraints, then it is possible to reconstruct ISW maps with excellent accuracy using a combination of maps from two galaxy surveys with properties similar to Euclid and SPHEREx.

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arXiv2018

Dark energy two decades after: Observables, probes, consistency tests

The discovery of the accelerating universe in the late 1990s was a watershed moment in modern cosmology, as it indicated the presence of a fundamentally new, dominant contribution to the energy budget of the universe. Evidence for dark energy, the new component that causes the acceleration, has since become extremely strong, owing to an impressive variety of increasingly precise measurements of the expansion history and the growth of structure in the universe. Still, one of the central challenges of modern cosmology is to shed light on the physical mechanism behind the accelerating universe. In this review, we briefly summarize the developments that led to the discovery of dark energy. Next, we discuss the parametric descriptions of dark energy and the cosmological tests that allow us to better understand its nature. We then review the cosmological probes of dark energy. For each probe, we briefly discuss the physics behind it and its prospects for measuring dark energy properties. We end with a summary of the current status of dark energy research.

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arXiv2017

Sample variance in the local measurements of the Hubble constant

The current $>3σ$ tension between the Hubble constant $H_0$ measured from local distance indicators and from cosmic microwave background is one of the most highly debated issues in cosmology, as it possibly indicates new physics or unknown systematics. In this work, we explore whether this tension can be alleviated by the sample variance in the local measurements, which use a small fraction of the Hubble volume. We use a large-volume cosmological $N$-body simulation to model the local measurements and to quantify the variance due to local density fluctuations and sample selection. We explicitly take into account the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of type Ia supernovae. Despite the faithful modelling of the observations, our results confirm previous findings that sample variance in the local Hubble constant $(H_0^{\rm loc})$ measurements is small; we find $σ(H_0^{\rm loc})=0.31\,{\rm km\ s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}$, a nearly negligible fraction of the $\sim6\,{\rm km\ s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}$ necessary to explain the difference between the local and the global $H_0$ measurements. While the $H_0$ tension could in principle be explained by our local neighbourhood being a underdense region of radius $\sim 150 \,\rm Mpc$ , the extreme required underdensity of such a void $(δ\simeq -0.8)$ makes it very unlikely in a $Λ$CDM universe, and it also violates existing observational constraints. Therefore, sample variance in a $Λ$CDM universe cannot appreciably alleviate the tension in $H_0$ measurements even after taking into account the inhomogeneous selection of type Ia supernovae.

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arXiv2017

Cosmology with Galaxy Cluster Phase Spaces

We present a novel approach to constrain accelerating cosmologies with galaxy cluster phase spaces. With the Fisher matrix formalism we forecast constraints on the cosmological parameters that describe the cosmological expansion history. We find that our probe has the potential of providing constraints comparable to, or even stronger than, those from other cosmological probes. More specifically, with 1000 (100) clusters uniformly distributed in the redshift range $ 0 \leq z \leq 0.8$, after applying a conservative $80\%$ mass scatter prior on each cluster and marginalizing over all other parameters, we forecast $1σ$ constraints on the dark energy equation of state $w$ and matter density parameter $Ω_M$ of $σ_w = 0.138 (0.431)$ and $σ_{Ω_M} = 0.007 (0.025)$ in a flat universe. Assuming 40\% mass scatter and adding a prior on the Hubble constant we can achieve a constraint on the CPL parametrization of the dark energy equation of state parameters $w_0$ and $w_a$ with 100 clusters in the same redshift range: $σ_{w_0} = 0.191 $ and $σ_{w_a} = 2.712$. Dropping the assumption of flatness and assuming $w=-1$ we also attain competitive constraints on the matter and dark energy density parameters: $σ_{Ω_M} = 0.101$ and $σ_{Ω_Λ} = 0.197$ for 100 clusters uniformly distributed in the range $ 0 \leq z \leq 0.8$ after applying a prior on the Hubble constant. We also discuss various observational strategies for tightening constraints in both the near and far future.

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