Du-Yi Wang | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Reliable Real-Time Value at Risk Estimation via Quantile Regression Forest with Conformal Calibration

Rapidly evolving market conditions call for real-time risk monitoring, but its online estimation remains challenging. In this paper, we study the online estimation of one of the most widely used risk measures, Value at Risk (VaR). Its accurate and reliable estimation is essential for timely risk control and informed decision-making. We propose to use the quantile regression forest in the offline-simulation-online-estimation (OSOA) framework. Specifically, the quantile regression forest is trained offline to learn the relationship between the online VaR and risk factors, and real-time VaR estimates are then produced online by incorporating observed risk factors. To further ensure reliability, we develop a conformalized estimator that calibrates the online VaR estimates. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to leverage conformal calibration to estimate real-time VaR reliably based on the OSOA formulation. Theoretical analysis establishes the consistency and coverage validity of the proposed estimators. Numerical experiments confirm the proposed method and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Regular Tree Search for Simulation Optimization

Tackling simulation optimization problems with non-convex objective functions remains a fundamental challenge in operations research. In this paper, we propose a class of random search algorithms, called Regular Tree Search, which integrates adaptive sampling with recursive partitioning of the search space. The algorithm concentrates simulations on increasingly promising regions by iteratively refining a tree structure. A tree search strategy guides sampling decisions, while partitioning is triggered when the number of samples in a leaf node exceeds a threshold that depends on its depth. Furthermore, a specific tree search strategy, Upper Confidence Bounds applied to Trees (UCT), is employed in the Regular Tree Search. We prove global convergence under sub-Gaussian noise, based on assumptions involving the optimality gap, without requiring continuity of the objective function. Numerical experiments confirm that the algorithm reliably identifies the global optimum and provides accurate estimates of its objective value.

math.OC↗