Predicting Only from Selected Evidence: A Tempered Product-of-Experts Bottleneck for Auditable EEG Diagnosis
Pretrained EEG backbones improve transfer performance, but downstream diagnosis heads remain hard to audit: predictions are made from unrestricted hidden states, whereas explanations are usually produced only after the decision. We introduce tPoE-EIB, an evidence-information bottleneck head for adapting EEG backbones under an evidence-only prediction constraint. tPoE-EIB selects temporal and channel evidence, maps the selected summaries to Gaussian experts over a shared latent variable, and fuses them with a tempered product-of-experts posterior. The classifier observes only this latent, so the decision path is explicit and rate-limited by the expected posterior KL. This gives a tractable supervised objective with an information-rate penalty, while the closed-form tempered posterior mitigates overconfident fusion from correlated evidence axes. We evaluate tPoE-EIB on pretrained EEG foundation-model backbones across six diagnosis settings: event-type classification, abnormality detection, seizure detection, cognitive-decline staging, depression screening, and cerebrovascular-disease classification. The evaluation spans public benchmarks and in-house clinical cohorts, binary screening and fine-grained staging, and sparse and dense montages. tPoE-EIB preserves competitive balanced accuracy and improves over representative post-hoc explanations on selection-faithfulness audits, including insertion-deletion and gate-causality tests. Its structured posterior further enables integration-faithfulness audits, including expert-drop, posterior-reliance, and expert-disagreement tests. Overall, these results suggest that evidence-only, rate-limited fusion is a practical route to auditable diagnosis on top of frozen EEG foundation backbones.