arXiv subjects

Duligur Ibeling

Publications and source records attributed to Duligur Ibeling.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Causal Abstraction: A Theoretical Foundation for Mechanistic Interpretability

Causal abstraction provides a theoretical foundation for mechanistic interpretability, the field concerned with providing intelligible algorithms that are faithful simplifications of the known, but opaque low-level details of black box AI models. Our contributions are (1) generalizing the theory of causal abstraction from mechanism replacement (i.e., hard and soft interventions) to arbitrary mechanism transformation (i.e., functionals from old mechanisms to new mechanisms), (2) providing a flexible, yet precise formalization for the core concepts of polysemantic neurons, the linear representation hypothesis, modular features, and graded faithfulness, and (3) unifying a variety of mechanistic interpretability methods in the common language of causal abstraction, namely, activation and path patching, causal mediation analysis, causal scrubbing, causal tracing, circuit analysis, concept erasure, sparse autoencoders, differential binary masking, distributed alignment search, and steering.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

On Probabilistic and Causal Reasoning with Summation Operators

Ibeling et al. (2023). axiomatize increasingly expressive languages of causation and probability, and Mosse et al. (2024) show that reasoning (specifically the satisfiability problem) in each causal language is as difficult, from a computational complexity perspective, as reasoning in its merely probabilistic or "correlational" counterpart. Introducing a summation operator to capture common devices that appear in applications -- such as the $do$-calculus of Pearl (2009) for causal inference, which makes ample use of marginalization -- van der Zander et al. (2023) partially extend these earlier complexity results to causal and probabilistic languages with marginalization. We complete this extension, fully characterizing the complexity of probabilistic and causal reasoning with summation, demonstrating that these again remain equally difficult. Surprisingly, allowing free variables for random variable values results in a system that is undecidable, so long as the ranges of these random variables are unrestricted. We finally axiomatize these languages featuring marginalization (or more generally summation), resolving open questions posed by Ibeling et al. (2023).

math.LO↗

arXiv2023

Comparing Causal Frameworks: Potential Outcomes, Structural Models, Graphs, and Abstractions

The aim of this paper is to make clear and precise the relationship between the Rubin causal model (RCM) and structural causal model (SCM) frameworks for causal inference. Adopting a neutral logical perspective, and drawing on previous work, we show what is required for an RCM to be representable by an SCM. A key result then shows that every RCM -- including those that violate algebraic principles implied by the SCM framework -- emerges as an abstraction of some representable RCM. Finally, we illustrate the power of this conciliatory perspective by pinpointing an important role for SCM principles in classic applications of RCMs; conversely, we offer a characterization of the algebraic constraints implied by a graph, helping to substantiate further comparisons between the two frameworks.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Probing the Quantitative-Qualitative Divide in Probabilistic Reasoning

This paper explores the space of (propositional) probabilistic logical languages, ranging from a purely `qualitative' comparative language to a highly `quantitative' language involving arbitrary polynomials over probability terms. While talk of qualitative vs. quantitative may be suggestive, we identify a robust and meaningful boundary in the space by distinguishing systems that encode (at most) additive reasoning from those that encode additive and multiplicative reasoning. The latter includes not only languages with explicit multiplication but also languages expressing notions of dependence and conditionality. We show that the distinction tracks a divide in computational complexity: additive systems remain complete for $\mathsf{NP}$, while multiplicative systems are robustly complete for $\exists\mathbb{R}$. We also address axiomatic questions, offering several new completeness results as well as a proof of non-finite-axiomatizability for comparative probability. Repercussions of our results for conceptual and empirical questions are addressed, and open problems are discussed.

math.LO↗

arXiv2023

Is Causal Reasoning Harder than Probabilistic Reasoning?

Many tasks in statistical and causal inference can be construed as problems of \emph{entailment} in a suitable formal language. We ask whether those problems are more difficult, from a computational perspective, for \emph{causal} probabilistic languages than for pure probabilistic (or "associational") languages. Despite several senses in which causal reasoning is indeed more complex -- both expressively and inferentially -- we show that causal entailment (or satisfiability) problems can be systematically and robustly reduced to purely probabilistic problems. Thus there is no jump in computational complexity. Along the way we answer several open problems concerning the complexity of well known probability logics, in particular demonstrating the $\exists\mathbb{R}$-completeness of a polynomial probability calculus, as well as a seemingly much simpler system, the logic of comparative conditional probability.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2022

A Topological Perspective on Causal Inference

This paper presents a topological learning-theoretic perspective on causal inference by introducing a series of topologies defined on general spaces of structural causal models (SCMs). As an illustration of the framework we prove a topological causal hierarchy theorem, showing that substantive assumption-free causal inference is possible only in a meager set of SCMs. Thanks to a known correspondence between open sets in the weak topology and statistically verifiable hypotheses, our results show that inductive assumptions sufficient to license valid causal inferences are statistically unverifiable in principle. Similar to no-free-lunch theorems for statistical inference, the present results clarify the inevitability of substantial assumptions for causal inference. An additional benefit of our topological approach is that it easily accommodates SCMs with infinitely many variables. We finally suggest that the framework may be helpful for the positive project of exploring and assessing alternative causal-inductive assumptions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

On Open-Universe Causal Reasoning

We extend two kinds of causal models, structural equation models and simulation models, to infinite variable spaces. This enables a semantics for conditionals founded on a calculus of intervention, and axiomatization of causal reasoning for rich, expressive generative models -- including those in which a causal representation exists only implicitly -- in an open-universe setting. Further, we show that under suitable restrictions the two kinds of models are equivalent, perhaps surprisingly as their axiomatizations differ substantially in the general case. We give a series of complete axiomatizations in which the open-universe nature of the setting is seen to be essential.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Probabilistic Reasoning across the Causal Hierarchy

We propose a formalization of the three-tier causal hierarchy of association, intervention, and counterfactuals as a series of probabilistic logical languages. Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity, the first capable of expressing quantitative probabilistic reasoning -- including conditional independence and Bayesian inference -- the second encoding do-calculus reasoning for causal effects, and the third capturing a fully expressive do-calculus for arbitrary counterfactual queries. We give a corresponding series of finitary axiomatizations complete over both structural causal models and probabilistic programs, and show that satisfiability and validity for each language are decidable in polynomial space.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2018

Causal Modeling with Probabilistic Simulation Models

Recent authors have proposed analyzing conditional reasoning through a notion of intervention on a simulation program, and have found a sound and complete axiomatization of the logic of conditionals in this setting. Here we extend this setting to the case of probabilistic simulation models. We give a natural definition of probability on formulas of the conditional language, allowing for the expression of counterfactuals, and prove foundational results about this definition. We also find an axiomatization for reasoning about linear inequalities involving probabilities in this setting. We prove soundness, completeness, and NP-completeness of the satisfiability problem for this logic.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

CVC4 at the SMT Competition 2018

This paper is a description of the CVC4 SMT solver as entered into the 2018 SMT Competition. We only list important differences from the 2017 SMT Competition version of CVC4. For further and more detailed information about CVC4, please refer to the original paper, the CVC4 website, or the source code on GitHub.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2018

On the Conditional Logic of Simulation Models

We propose analyzing conditional reasoning by appeal to a notion of intervention on a simulation program, formalizing and subsuming a number of approaches to conditional thinking in the recent AI literature. Our main results include a series of axiomatizations, allowing comparison between this framework and existing frameworks (normality-ordering models, causal structural equation models), and a complexity result establishing NP-completeness of the satisfiability problem. Perhaps surprisingly, some of the basic logical principles common to all existing approaches are invalidated in our causal simulation approach. We suggest that this additional flexibility is important in modeling some intuitive examples.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2015

The Possible Origin and Implications of the Shoulder in Reactor Neutrino Spectra

We analyze within a nuclear database framework the shoulder observed in the antineutrino spectra in current reactor experiments. We find that the ENDF/B-VII.1 database predicts that the antineutrino shoulder arises from an analogous shoulder in the aggregate fission beta spectra. In contrast, the JEFF-3.1.1 database does not predict a shoulder for two out of three of the modern reactor neutrino experiments, and the shoulder that is predicted by JEFF-3.1.1 arises from $^{238}$U. We consider several possible origins of the shoulder, and find possible explanations. For example, there could be a problem with the measured aggregate beta spectra, or the harder neutron spectrum at a light-water power reactor could affect the distribution of beta-decaying isotopes. In addition to the fissile actinides, we find that $^{238}$U could also play a significant role in distorting the total antineutrino spectrum. Distinguishing these and quantifying whether there is an anomaly associated with measured reactor neutrino signals will require new short-baseline experiments, both at thermal reactors and at reactors with a sizable epithermal neutron component.

nucl-th↗

arXiv2013

The Metallicity Dependence of the Minimum Mass for Core-Collapse Supernovae

Understanding the progenitors of core collapse supernovae and their population statistics is a key ingredient for many current studies in astronomy but as yet this remains elusive. Using the MESA stellar evolution code we study the dependence of the lower mass limit for making core collapse supernovae (SNe) as function of initial stellar metallicity. We find that this mass limit is smallest at approximately [Z] = -2 with a value of ~ 8.3 Msun. At [Z] = 0 the limit is ~ 9.5 Msun and continues to rise with higher metallicity. As a consequence, for a fixed initial mass function the supernova rate may be 20% to 25% higher at [Z] = -2. This affects the association of observed SN rates as a probe for the cosmological star formation rate, rate predictions for supernova surveys, and population synthesis studies.

astro-ph.SR↗