arXiv subjects

Duxin Chen

Publications and source records attributed to Duxin Chen.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

STHMoE: Hypergraph-Enhanced Heterogeneous Dependency Coordination for LLM-Based Urban Traffic Data Forecasting

Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a fundamental big data analytics task for intelligent transportation systems, where massive urban sensor streams exhibit heterogeneous, non-stationary, and structurally dynamic patterns. Although recent deep learning and large language model (LLM)-based methods have advanced traffic forecasting, they often remain temporally centered and lack effective coordination of temporal, spectral, pairwise spatial, and higher-order structural cues under evolving traffic regimes. To address this heterogeneous dependency coordination problem, we propose STHMoE, a Spatio-Temporal Hypergraph-Enhanced Mixture of Experts framework for urban traffic data forecasting. STHMoE decouples traffic dynamics into frequency-domain, time-domain, spatio-domain, and higher-order spatial representations, which are modeled by prompt-guided heterogeneous experts built upon a partially frozen LLM backbone. The first three experts leverage domain-specific statistical prompts, while the higher-order spatio expert uses a structural placeholder prompt and obtains dependency information from an adaptive hypergraph module. To capture evolving spatial structures in traffic data,, STHMoE jointly learns first-order graph dependencies and higher-order group interactions without predefined topologies. An entropy-aware MoE router with coefficient-of-variation load balancing adaptively fuses expert outputs while improving expert utilization and routing confidence. Experiments on 10 real-world traffic benchmarks show that STHMoE achieves competitive performance against temporal, spatio-temporal graph, and LLM-based baselines.

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arXiv2026

DualHNIE: Dual-Channel Hypergraph Learning for Node Importance Estimation in Heterogeneous Knowledge Graphs

Estimating node importance in heterogeneous knowledge graphs is a fundamental problem underlying recommendation, search, and knowledge decision systems. However, most existing methods rely on pairwise message passing mechanisms that fail to capture higher-order interactions induced by meta-relational structures. Furthermore, structural topology and semantic attributes are typically entangled within a unified embedding space, which obscures their distinct inductive biases and limits the discriminative capacity of learned importance representations. To address these limitations, we propose DualHNIE, a principled dual-channel hypergraph learning framework for node importance estimation. DualHNIE first constructs a higher-order knowledge graph by forming typed hyperedges from meta-path sequences, enabling explicit modeling of higher-order relational patterns. It then introduces two complementary encoders: a structure-aware hypergraph attention network that performs locally normalized aggregation over meta-path--induced hyperedges to capture localized structural dependencies, and a sparse--chunked hypergraph transformer that captures global semantic interactions while maintaining scalable computation. We further design a contrastive alignment mechanism with auxiliary supervision, ensuring cross-view consistency while preserving modality-specific representation. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that DualHNIE outperforms state-of-the-art methods, validating the effectiveness of explicit high-order modeling and disentangled dual-channel representation learning for heterogeneous knowledge graphs. Code and datasets are available\footnote[1]{https://github.com/jiawenchen10/DualHNIE}.

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arXiv2026

Weisfeiler Lehman Test on Combinatorial Complexes: Generalized Expressive Power of Topological Neural Networks

Topological neural networks have emerged as effective tools for modeling higher-order relational structures beyond pairwise graphs, including hypergraphs, simplicial complexes, and cell complexes. However, existing Weisfeiler-Leman type expressivity analyses are typically developed on different structural domains and rely on domain-specific neighborhood systems, making their expressive powers difficult to compare within a common formalism. In this paper, we introduce the Combinatorial Complex Weisfeiler-Leman (CCWL) framework, a unified expressive power refinement defined on combinatorial complexes. By exploiting the ability of combinatorial complexes to represent both set-type relations and part-whole hierarchies, CCWL performs topological color refinement through four structural neighborhoods: boundary, co-boundary, lower adjacency, and upper adjacency. We show that, under specified lifting maps, CCWL can simulate several domain-specific WL-type refinements, thereby providing a common theoretical baseline for analyzing topological message passing. We further study the neighborhood sufficiency problem and prove that, under explicit coverage conditions, a reduced refinement using only lower- and upper-adjacent bridge information preserves the distinguishing power of the full four-neighborhood CCWL refinement. Guided by this theoretical result, we instantiate the reduced refinement as the Combinatorial Complex Isomorphism Network (CCIN). Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that CCIN achieves competitive performance against representative graph and topological neural network baselines. Ablation studies and resource-efficiency analyses further support the effectiveness of the proposed lower/upper-neighborhood design.

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arXiv2026

From Uniform to Learned Graph Priors: Diffusion for Structure Discovery

Neural relational inference (NRI) methods discover interaction graphs from trajectories through variational reasoning on discrete potential edges. However, these methods typically rely on oversimplified, factorized graph priors. Such priors, typically nearing uniform distributions, treat edges as independent entities. This systemic misalignment does not match the real-world systems and yields diffuse and indecisive edge posteriors limiting the reliability of structural discovery. To address this, we propose \textit{Diff-prior}, a diffusion-parameterized adaptive prior used to calibrate latent graph distribution rather than generate graphs. Our core insight is to reframe prior integration as a learnable denoising-style calibration that organizes scattered, uncertain edge posteriors into a more reliable overall structure which can be trained by the diffusion model. Diff-prior learns an adaptive structure prior that performs structured calibration on the edge posteriors during inference, guiding it towards a distribution closer to the underlying structure. The diff-prior operates before structural sampling and acts as a denoising calibrator directly on the encoder edge distribution, which provides a generic training paradigm over structured variables. Experiments on standard benchmarks validated our framework, and the results indicate that Diff-prior improves the performance of structure inference and generates more decisive edge posteriors across multiple NRI-family architectures. The code is available on https://github.com/Hardy158118/Diffprior.

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arXiv2026

CoDCL: Counterfactual-Inspired Augmentation Contrastive Learning for Temporal Link Prediction in Social Networks

Temporal link prediction is crucial for rapidly growing social networks. Existing methods often overlook the underlying causal mechanisms that drive link formation, making it difficult for algorithms to adapt to complex structures that continuously evolve over time. To enable prediction models to adapt to complex temporal environments, they need to be robust to emerging structural changes. We propose a dynamic network learning framework CoDCL, which combines counterfactual-inspired augmentation with contrastive learning to address this deficiency. Furthermore, we devise a comprehensive strategy to generate high-quality counterfactual data, combining a dynamic treatments design with efficient structural neighborhood exploration to quantify the temporal changes in interaction patterns. Crucially, the entire CoDCL is designed as a plug-and-play universal module that can be seamlessly integrated into various existing temporal graph models without requiring architectural modifications. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that CoDCL significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in temporal link prediction, highlighting the effectiveness of integrating counterfactual-inspired data augmentation into dynamic representation learning.

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arXiv2026

CausalCompass: Evaluating the Robustness of Time-Series Causal Discovery in Misspecified Scenarios

Causal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing benchmarks. To address these challenges, we propose CausalCompass, a flexible and extensible benchmark framework designed to assess the robustness of time-series causal discovery (TSCD) methods under violations of modeling assumptions. To demonstrate the practical utility of CausalCompass, we conduct extensive benchmarking of representative TSCD algorithms across eight assumption-violation scenarios. Our experimental results indicate that no single method consistently attains optimal performance across all settings. Nevertheless, the methods exhibiting superior overall performance across diverse scenarios are almost invariably deep learning-based approaches. We further provide hyperparameter sensitivity analyses to deepen the understanding of these findings. We additionally conduct ablation experiments to explain the strong performance of deep learning-based methods under assumption violations. We also find, somewhat surprisingly, that NTS-NOTEARS relies heavily on standardized preprocessing in practice, performing poorly in the vanilla setting but exhibiting strong performance after standardization. Finally, our work aims to provide a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of TSCD methods under assumption violations, thereby facilitating their broader adoption in real-world applications. The user-friendly implementation, documentation and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CausalCompass-anonymous-5B4F/.

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arXiv2026

Predicting Dynamics of Ultra-Large Complex Systems by Inferring Governing Equations

Predicting the behavior of ultra-large complex systems, from climate to biological and technological networks, is a central unsolved challenge. Existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: equation discovery methods provide interpretability but fail to scale, while neural networks scale but operate as black boxes and often lose reliability over long times. Here, we introduce the Sparse Identification Graph Neural Network, a framework that overcome this divide by allowing to infer the governing equations of large networked systems from data. By defining symbolic discovery as edge-level information, SIGN decouples the scalability of sparse identification from network size, enabling efficient equation discovery even in large systems. SIGN allows to study networks with over 100,000 nodes while remaining robust to noise, sparse sampling, and missing data. Across diverse benchmark systems, including coupled chaotic oscillators, neural dynamics, and epidemic spreading, it recovers governing equations with high precision and sustains accurate long-term predictions. Applied to a data set of time series of temperature measurements in 71,987 sea surface positions, SIGN identifies a compact predictive network model and captures large-scale sea surface temperature conditions up to two years in advance. By enabling equation discovery at previously inaccessible scales, SIGN opens a path toward interpretable and reliable prediction of real-world complex systems.

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arXiv2026

CCMamba: Topologically-Informed Selective State-Space Networks on Combinatorial Complexes for Higher-Order Graph Learning

Topological deep learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm for modeling higher-order relational structures beyond pairwise interactions that standard graph neural networks fail to capture. While combinatorial complexes (CCs) offer a unified topological foundation for the higher-order graph learning, existing topological deep learning methods rely heavily on local message passing and attention mechanisms. These suffer from quadratic complexity and local neighborhood constraints, limiting their scalability and capacity for rank-aware, long-range dependency modeling. To overcome these challenges, we propose Combinatorial Complex Mamba (CCMamba), the first unified Mamba-based neural framework for learning on combinatorial complexes. CCMamba reformulates higher-order message passing as a selective state-space modeling problem by linearizing multi-rank incidence relations into structured, rank-aware sequences. This architecture enables adaptive, directional, and long-range information propagation in linear time bypassing the scalability bottlenecks of self-attention. Theoretically, we further establish that the expressive power of CCMamba is upper-bounded by the 1-dimensional combinatorial complex Weisfeiler-Lehman (1-CCWL) test. Extensive experiments across graph, hypergraph, and simplicial benchmarks demonstrate that CCMamba consistently outperforms existing methods while exhibiting superior scalability and remarkable robustness against over-smoothing in deep architectures.

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arXiv2026

TFWaveFormer: Temporal-Frequency Collaborative Multi-level Wavelet Transformer for Dynamic Link Prediction

Dynamic link prediction plays a crucial role in diverse applications including social network analysis, communication forecasting, and financial modeling. While recent Transformer-based approaches have demonstrated promising results in temporal graph learning, their performance remains limited when capturing complex multi-scale temporal dynamics. In this paper, we propose TFWaveFormer, a novel Transformer architecture that integrates temporal-frequency analysis with multi-resolution wavelet decomposition to enhance dynamic link prediction. Our framework comprises three key components: (i) a temporal-frequency coordination mechanism that jointly models temporal and spectral representations, (ii) a learnable multi-resolution wavelet decomposition module that adaptively extracts multi-scale temporal patterns through parallel convolutions, replacing traditional iterative wavelet transforms, and (iii) a hybrid Transformer module that effectively fuses local wavelet features with global temporal dependencies. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TFWaveFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing Transformer-based and hybrid models by significant margins across multiple metrics. The superior performance of TFWaveFormer validates the effectiveness of combining temporal-frequency analysis with wavelet decomposition in capturing complex temporal dynamics for dynamic link prediction tasks.

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arXiv2026

Spatio-Temporal Graphical Counterfactuals: An Overview

Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and the Structural Causal Model (SCM), have been proposed to address this. However, their modeling, theoretical foundations, and application approaches often differ. Moreover, there is a lack of graphical approaches for inferring spatio-temporal counterfactuals, that account for spatial and temporal interactions among multiple units. Thus, in this work, we aim to present a survey that compares and discusses different counterfactual models, theories and approaches. Additionally, we propose a unified graphical causal framework to infer spatio-temporal counterfactuals.

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arXiv2025

The Robustness of Differentiable Causal Discovery in Misspecified Scenarios

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are usually difficult to satisfy in real-world data, thereby limiting the broad application of causal discovery in practical scenarios. Inspired by these considerations, this work extensively benchmarks the empirical performance of various mainstream causal discovery algorithms, which assume i.i.d. data, under eight model assumption violations. Our experimental results show that differentiable causal discovery methods exhibit robustness under the metrics of Structural Hamming Distance and Structural Intervention Distance of the inferred graphs in commonly used challenging scenarios, except for scale variation. We also provide the theoretical explanations for the performance of differentiable causal discovery methods. Finally, our work aims to comprehensively benchmark the performance of recent differentiable causal discovery methods under model assumption violations, and provide the standard for reasonable evaluation of causal discovery, as well as to further promote its application in real-world scenarios.

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arXiv2025

Critical Nodes Identification in Complex Networks: A Survey

Complex networks have become essential tools for understanding diverse phenomena in social systems, traffic systems, biomolecular systems, and financial systems. Identifying critical nodes is a central theme in contemporary research, serving as a vital bridge between theoretical foundations and practical applications. Nevertheless, the intrinsic complexity and structural heterogeneity characterizing real-world networks, with particular emphasis on dynamic and higher-order networks, present substantial obstacles to the development of universal frameworks for critical node identification. This paper provides a comprehensive review of critical node identification techniques, categorizing them into seven main classes: centrality, critical nodes deletion problem, influence maximization, network control, artificial intelligence, higher-order and dynamic methods. Our review bridges the gaps in existing surveys by systematically classifying methods based on their methodological foundations and practical implications, and by highlighting their strengths, limitations, and applicability across different network types. Our work enhances the understanding of critical node research by identifying key challenges, such as algorithmic universality, real-time evaluation in dynamic networks, analysis of higher-order structures, and computational efficiency in large-scale networks. The structured synthesis consolidates current progress and highlights open questions, particularly in modeling temporal dynamics, advancing efficient algorithms, integrating machine learning approaches, and developing scalable and interpretable metrics for complex systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Identifying Unique Spatial-Temporal Bayesian Network without Markov Equivalence

Identifying vanilla Bayesian network to model spatial-temporal causality can be a critical yet challenging task. Different Markovian-equivalent directed acyclic graphs would be identified if the identifiability is not satisfied. To address this issue, Directed Cyclic Graph is proposed to drop the directed acyclic constraint. But it does not always hold, and cannot model dynamical time-series process. Then, Full Time Graph is proposed with introducing high-order time delay. Full Time Graph has no Markov equivalence class by assuming no instantaneous effects. But, it also assumes that the causality is invariant with varying time, that is not always satisfied in the spatio-temporal scenarios. Thus, in this work, a Spatial-Temporal Bayesian Network (STBN) is proposed to theoretically model the spatial-temporal causality from the perspective of information transfer. STBN explains the disappearance of network structure $X\rightarrow Z \rightarrow Y$ and $X\leftarrow Z \leftarrow Y$ by the principle of information path blocking. And finally, the uniqueness of STBN is proved. Based on this, a High-order Causal Entropy (HCE) algorithm is also proposed to uniquely identify STBN under time complexity $\mathcal{O}(n^3τ_{max})$, where $n$ is the number of variables and $τ_{max}$ is the maximum time delay. Numerical experiments are conducted with comparison to other baseline algorithms. The results show that HCE algorithm obtains state-of-the-art identification accuracy. The code is available at https://github.com/KMY-SEU/HCE.

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arXiv2025

Decoupling Spatio-Temporal Prediction: When Lightweight Large Models Meet Adaptive Hypergraphs

Spatio-temporal prediction is a pivotal task with broad applications in traffic management, climate monitoring, energy scheduling, etc. However, existing methodologies often struggle to balance model expressiveness and computational efficiency, especially when scaling to large real-world datasets. To tackle these challenges, we propose STH-SepNet (Spatio-Temporal Hypergraph Separation Networks), a novel framework that decouples temporal and spatial modeling to enhance both efficiency and precision. Therein, the temporal dimension is modeled using lightweight large language models, which effectively capture low-rank temporal dynamics. Concurrently, the spatial dimension is addressed through an adaptive hypergraph neural network, which dynamically constructs hyperedges to model intricate, higher-order interactions. A carefully designed gating mechanism is integrated to seamlessly fuse temporal and spatial representations. By leveraging the fundamental principles of low-rank temporal dynamics and spatial interactions, STH-SepNet offers a pragmatic and scalable solution for spatio-temporal prediction in real-world applications. Extensive experiments on large-scale real-world datasets across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of STH-SepNet in boosting predictive performance while maintaining computational efficiency. This work may provide a promising lightweight framework for spatio-temporal prediction, aiming to reduce computational demands and while enhancing predictive performance. Our code is avaliable at https://github.com/SEU-WENJIA/ST-SepNet-Lightweight-LLMs-Meet-Adaptive-Hypergraphs.

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arXiv2024

MSCT: Addressing Time-Varying Confounding with Marginal Structural Causal Transformer for Counterfactual Post-Crash Traffic Prediction

Traffic crashes profoundly impede traffic efficiency and pose economic challenges. Accurate prediction of post-crash traffic status provides essential information for evaluating traffic perturbations and developing effective solutions. Previous studies have established a series of deep learning models to predict post-crash traffic conditions, however, these correlation-based methods cannot accommodate the biases caused by time-varying confounders and the heterogeneous effects of crashes. The post-crash traffic prediction model needs to estimate the counterfactual traffic speed response to hypothetical crashes under various conditions, which demonstrates the necessity of understanding the causal relationship between traffic factors. Therefore, this paper presents the Marginal Structural Causal Transformer (MSCT), a novel deep learning model designed for counterfactual post-crash traffic prediction. To address the issue of time-varying confounding bias, MSCT incorporates a structure inspired by Marginal Structural Models and introduces a balanced loss function to facilitate learning of invariant causal features. The proposed model is treatment-aware, with a specific focus on comprehending and predicting traffic speed under hypothetical crash intervention strategies. In the absence of ground-truth data, a synthetic data generation procedure is proposed to emulate the causal mechanism between traffic speed, crashes, and covariates. The model is validated using both synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating that MSCT outperforms state-of-the-art models in multi-step-ahead prediction performance. This study also systematically analyzes the impact of time-varying confounding bias and dataset distribution on model performance, contributing valuable insights into counterfactual prediction for intelligent transportation systems.

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arXiv2023

Interpretable System Identification and Long-term Prediction on Time-Series Data

Time-series prediction has drawn considerable attention during the past decades fueled by the emerging advances of deep learning methods. However, most neural network based methods lack interpretability and fail in extracting the hidden mechanism of the targeted physical system. To overcome these shortcomings, an interpretable sparse system identification method without any prior knowledge is proposed in this study. This method adopts the Fourier transform to reduces the irrelevant items in the dictionary matrix, instead of indiscriminate usage of polynomial functions in most system identification methods. It shows an interpretable system representation and greatly reduces computing cost. With the adoption of $l_1$ norm in regularizing the parameter matrix, a sparse description of the system model can be achieved. Moreover, Three data sets including the water conservancy data, global temperature data and financial data are used to test the performance of the proposed method. Although no prior knowledge was known about the physical background, experimental results show that our method can achieve long-term prediction regardless of the noise and incompleteness in the original data more accurately than the widely-used baseline data-driven methods. This study may provide some insight into time-series prediction investigations, and suggests that an white-box system identification method may extract the easily overlooked yet inherent periodical features and may beat neural-network based black-box methods on long-term prediction tasks.

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