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E. Jullo

Publications and source records attributed to E. Jullo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Euclid: Measuring the intrinsic alignment of galaxies around cosmic voids in the \Euclid Flagship simulation\

We present a methodology to measure the intrinsic alignment (IA) signal of galaxies in the vicinity of cosmic voids using the \Euclid-like Flagship cosmological simulation from the Euclid Consortium. The IA signal is quantified and compared with the predictions of the linear alignment (LA) model, providing one of the first detailed investigations of this effect in underdense large-scale environments. While the IA signal around cosmic voids has received little attention to date, it may constitute a non-negligible systematic in forthcoming cosmological analyses that exploit void-lensing measurements. Our analysis examines red and blue galaxy populations separately, enabling a comparison of their alignment behaviour in void environments with the corresponding trends measured in galaxy-galaxy correlations. We find that the redshift evolution of the IA amplitude in cosmic voids is broadly consistent with that measured in the general galaxy population for both colour-selected samples. Additionally, our modelling allows us to estimate the linear bias of voids, $b_{\rm V}(z)$ which characterises how cosmic voids trace the underlying dark-matter density field, for voids with radii in the range $10 < R_{\rm V}/(h^{-1} {\rm Mpc}) < 15$. The measured bias exhibits a positive trend with redshift, consistent with theoretical predictions for the clustering of underdense regions. These results highlight the importance of accurately modelling IA in void studies, both to mitigate systematic effects in void-lensing cosmology and to further improve our understanding of galaxy-environment interactions in low-density regions of the Universe.

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A z$\sim$1 galactic-scale outflow transversally mapped to $\sim$50 kpc through gravitational-arc tomography

We report spatially resolved measurements of cool gas traced by Mg II and Fe II absorption in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of a star-forming galaxy at $z\sim1$ (G1). The fortuitous alignment of a background gravitational arc at z$\sim$2.4 provides seven closely spaced ($\sim$6 kpc) transverse sightlines along the minor axis of G1, probing its CGM out to $\sim$50 kpc. This geometry allows us to detect a galactic-scale outflow simultaneously in down-the-barrel and transverse directions, where blue-shifted Mg II absorption is detected along both types of sightlines, revealing a large-scale, collimated wind. We measure blue-shifted line-of-sight velocities of $v_{\mathrm{los}}$ $\sim$ 62 - 239 km s$^{-1}$ and line-of-sight velocity dispersions $\sigma_{\mathrm{los}}$ $\sim$ 53 - 133 km s$^{-1}$, suggesting a structure dominated by bulk motion. De-projection of $v_{\mathrm{los}}$ along the minor axis indicates that the outflow material barely approaches the escape velocity and is likely to be gravitationally bound to G1. We constrain an outflow opening angle $\theta_c\sim$ 18$^\circ$ - 25$^\circ$, and a mass outflow rate of $ \dot{M}_{\mathrm{out}}$ $\gtrsim$ 0.06 $M_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$, corresponding to a mass loading factor $\eta$ $\gtrsim$ 0.004, estimated within $\sim$10 - 50 kpc ($\sim$ 0.05 - 0.3 $R_\text{vir}$) of the galaxy centre. Our measurements, combined with previous arc tomography data along the major axis, indicate that normalizing impact parameters by galaxy B-band luminosity substantially reduces scatter in the established anti-correlation between Mg II equivalent width and impact parameter, while also diminishing possible excess of Mg II equivalent width towards the minor axis.

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Joint cosmological fits to DESI-DR1 full-shape clustering and weak gravitational lensing in configuration space

We present a joint $3\times2$-pt cosmological analysis of auto- and cross-correlations between the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1) Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) samples and overlapping shear measurements from the KiDS-1000, DES-Y3 and HSC-Y3 weak lensing surveys. We perform our analysis in configuration space and, in addition to the cosmic shear correlation functions for each weak lensing dataset, we fit the tangential shear of the weak lensing source galaxies around DESI lens galaxies. Finally, we make use of the anisotropic BGS and LRG clustering information by fitting the full shape of the two-point correlation function multipoles measured over the full DESI-DR1 footprint, presenting the first full-shape analysis of DESI measurements in configuration space. We find that the addition of weak lensing information serves to improve, with respect to the clustering-only case, the measurements of the power spectrum amplitude parameters $\ln(10^{10}A_{\rm{s}})$ and $\sigma_{12}$ by $15\%$ and $36\%$, respectively. It also improves measurements of the linear bias of the lens galaxies by $15-20\%$, depending on the tracer. Our results show excellent consistency, regardless of the weak lensing survey considered, and are furthermore consistent with a companion analysis that fits $3\times2$-pt correlations including DESI projected clustering measurements, as well as the results published by the weak lensing collaborations themselves. Our measured values for weak lensing amplitude are $S_{8}^{\mathrm{DESI\times HSC}}=0.787\pm0.020$, $S_{8}^{\mathrm{DESI\times DES}}=0.791\pm0.016$, $S_{8}^{\mathrm{DESI\times KiDS}}=0.771\pm0.017$, which are $1.9\sigma-2.9\sigma$ below the $S_8$ value preferred by Planck. Finally, our clustering-only results are in good agreement with the Fourier space full-shape analysis of all DESI tracers.

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Validation of the DESI-DR1 3x2-pt analysis: scale cut and shear ratio tests

Combined survey analyses of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing (3x2-pt studies) will allow new and accurate tests of the standard cosmological model. However, careful validation is necessary to ensure that these cosmological constraints are not biased by uncertainties associated with the modelling of astrophysical or systematic effects. In this study we validate the combined 3x2-pt analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1) spectroscopic galaxy clustering and overlapping weak lensing datasets from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). By propagating the modelling uncertainties associated with the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and baryon feedback, we design scale cuts to ensure that measurements of the matter density and the amplitude of the matter power spectrum are biased by less than 30% of the statistical error. We also test the internal consistency of the data and weak lensing systematics by performing new measurements of the lensing shear ratio. We demonstrate that the DESI-DR1 shear ratios can be successfully fit by the same model used to describe cosmic shear correlations, and analyse the additional information that can be extracted about the source redshift distributions and intrinsic alignment parameters. This study serves as crucial preparation for the upcoming cosmological parameter analysis of these datasets.

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DESI Strong Lens Foundry III: Keck Spectroscopy for Strong Lenses Discovered Using Residual Neural Networks

We present spectroscopic data of strong lenses and their source galaxies using the Keck Near-Infrared Echellette Spectrometer (NIRES) and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), providing redshifts necessary for nearly all strong-lensing applications with these systems, especially the extraction of physical parameters from lensing modeling. These strong lenses were found in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys using Residual Neural Networks (ResNet) and followed up by our Hubble Space Telescope program, with all systems displaying unambiguous lensed arcs. With NIRES, we target eight lensed sources at redshifts difficult to measure in the optical range and determine the source redshifts for six, between $z_s$ = 1.675 and 3.332. DESI observed one of the remaining source redshifts, as well as an additional source redshift within the six systems. The two systems with non-detections by NIRES were observed for a considerably shorter 600s at high airmass. Combining NIRES infrared spectroscopy with optical spectroscopy from our DESI Strong Lensing Secondary Target Program, these results provide the complete lens and source redshifts for six systems, a resource for refining automated strong lens searches in future deep- and wide-field imaging surveys and addressing a range of questions in astrophysics and cosmology.

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Testing gravitational physics by combining DESI DR1 and weak lensing datasets using the E_G estimator

The action of gravitational physics across space-time creates observable signatures in the behaviour of light and matter. We perform combined-probe studies using data from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument survey Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1), in combination with three existing weak lensing surveys, the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC), to test and constrain General Relativity (GR) in the context of the standard model of cosmology (LCDM). We focus on measuring the gravitational estimator statistic, E_G, which describes the relative amplitudes of weak gravitational lensing and galaxy velocities induced by a common set of overdensities. By comparing our amplitude measurements with their predicted scale- and redshift-dependence within the GR+LCDM model, we demonstrate that our results are consistent with the predictions of the Planck cosmology. The redshift span of the DESI dataset allows us to perform these E_G measurements at the highest redshifts achieved to date, z ~ 1.

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DESI DR2 reference mocks: clustering results from Uchuu-BGS and LRG

The aim of this work is to construct mock galaxy catalogues that accurately reproduce the redshift evolution of galaxy number density, clustering statistics, and baryonic properties, such as stellar mass for luminous red galaxies (LRGs) and absolute magnitude in the $r$-band for the bright galaxy sample (BGS), based on the first three years of observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). To achieve this, we applied the subhalo abundance matching (SHAM) technique to the Uchuu $N$-body simulation, which follows the evolution of 2.1 trillion particles within a volume of $8\,h^{-3}\,\mathrm{Gpc}^{3}$, assuming a Planck base-$\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Using SHAM, we populated Uchuu subhalos with LRGs and BGS-BRIGHT ($r<19.5$) galaxies up to redshift $z=1.1$, assigning stellar masses to LRGs and luminosities to BGS galaxies (up to $M_{\rm r}\leq 20$). Furthermore, we analyzed the clustering dependence on stellar mass and luminosity for each tracer. Our results show that the Uchuu BGS-BRIGHT and LRG mocks accurately reproduce the observed redshift evolution of clustering, with better than 5\% agreement for separations of $1<r<20\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}$ and below 10\% for $0.1<r<1\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}$. For the Uchuu-LRG mock, we successfully captured the stellar mass dependence of clustering, while for the Uchuu-BGS mock, we replicated the clustering for various volume-limited subsamples. We also find good agreement between the data and mocks in the dependence of large-scale bias on luminosity for BGS-BRIGHT galaxies and on stellar mass for LRGs. Altogether, these results equip DESI with robust tools for generating high-fidelity lightcones for the remainder of the survey, thereby enhancing our understanding of the galaxy--halo connection.

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Lensing Without Borders: Measurements of galaxy-galaxy lensing and projected galaxy clustering in DESI DR1

We present Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing measurements obtained by cross-correlating spectroscopically observed galaxies from the first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) with source galaxies from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey, the Kilo-Degree Survey, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and the Dark Energy Survey. Specifically, we measure the excess surface mass density $\Delta\Sigma$ and tangential shear $\gamma_\mathrm{t}$ for the Bright Galaxy Sample and Luminous Red Galaxies measured within the first year of observations with DESI. To ensure robustness, we test the measurements for systematic biases, finding no significant trends related to the properties of the \acrshort{desi} lens galaxies. We identify a significant trend with the average redshift of source galaxies, however, this trend vanishes once we apply shifts to the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey redshift distributions that are also favored by their fiducial cosmology analysis. Additionally, we compare the observed scatter in the measurements with the theoretical covariance and find excess scatter, driven primarily by small-scale measurements of $r\leq 1 \, \mathrm{Mpc}/h$; measurements on larger scales are consistent at the $2\,\sigma$ level. We further present the projected clustering measurements $w_p$ of the galaxy samples in the the first data release of DESI. These measurements, which will be made publicly available, serve as a foundation for forthcoming cosmological analyses.

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Euclid preparation: The NISP spectroscopy channel, on ground performance and calibration

ESA's Euclid cosmology mission relies on the very sensitive and accurately calibrated spectroscopy channel of the Near-Infrared Spectrometer and Photometer (NISP). With three operational grisms in two wavelength intervals, NISP provides diffraction-limited slitless spectroscopy over a field of $0.57$ deg$^2$. A blue grism $\text{BG}_\text{E}$ covers the wavelength range $926$--$1366$\,nm at a spectral resolution $R=440$--$900$ for a $0.5''$ diameter source with a dispersion of $1.24$ nm px$^{-1}$. Two red grisms $\text{RG}_\text{E}$ span $1206$ to $1892$\,nm at $R=550$--$740$ and a dispersion of $1.37$ nm px$^{-1}$. We describe the construction of the grisms as well as the ground testing of the flight model of the NISP instrument where these properties were established.

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Euclid Quick Data Release (Q1). LEMON -- Lens Modelling with Neural networks. Automated and fast modelling of Euclid gravitational lenses with a singular isothermal ellipsoid mass profile

The Euclid mission aims to survey around 14000 deg^{2} of extragalactic sky, providing around 10^{5} gravitational lens images. Modelling of gravitational lenses is fundamental to estimate the total mass of the lens galaxy, along with its dark matter content. Traditional modelling of gravitational lenses is computationally intensive and requires manual input. In this paper, we use a Bayesian neural network, LEns MOdelling with Neural networks (LEMON), to model Euclid gravitational lenses with a singular isothermal ellipsoid mass profile. Our method estimates key lens mass profile parameters, such as the Einstein radius, while also predicting the light parameters of foreground galaxies and their uncertainties. We validate LEMON's performance on both mock Euclid datasets, real lenses observed with Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and real Euclid lenses, demonstrating the ability of LEMON to predict parameters of both simulated and real lenses. Results show promising accuracy and reliability in predicting the Einstein radius, mass and light ellipticities, effective radius, S\'ersic index, lens magnitude, and unlensed source position for simulated lens galaxies. The application to real data, including the latest Quick Release 1 strong lens candidates, provides encouraging results in the recovery of the parameters for real lenses. We also verified that LEMON has the potential to accelerate traditional modelling methods, by giving to the classical optimiser the LEMON predictions as starting points, resulting in a speed-up of up to 26 times the original time needed to model a sample of gravitational lenses, a result that would be impossible with randomly initialised guesses. This work represents a significant step towards efficient, automated gravitational lens modelling, which is crucial for handling the large data volumes expected from Euclid.

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DESI Strong Lens Foundry I: HST Observations and Modeling with GIGA-Lens

We present the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Strong Lens Foundry. We discovered $\sim 3500$ new strong gravitational lens candidates in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys using residual neural networks (ResNet). We observed a subset (51) of our candidates using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). All of them were confirmed to be strong lenses. We also briefly describe spectroscopic follow-up observations by DESI and Keck NIRES programs. From this very rich dataset, a number of studies will be carried out, including evaluating the quality of the ResNet search candidates and lens modeling. In this paper, we present our initial effort in these directions. In particular, as a demonstration, we present the lens model for DESI-165.4754-06.0423, with imaging data from HST, and lens and source redshifts from DESI and Keck NIRES, respectively. In this effort, we have applied a \emph{fully} forward-modeling Bayesian approach (GIGA-Lens), using \emph{multiple} GPUs, for the first time in both regards, to a strong lens with HST data, or any high resolution imaging.

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The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

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A compact group lens modeled with GIGA-Lens: Enhanced inference for complex systems

In the era of large-scale astronomical surveys, fast modeling of strong lens systems has become increasingly vital. While significant progress has been made for galaxy-scale lenses, the development of automated methods for modeling larger systems, such as groups and clusters, is not as extensive. Our study aims to extend the capabilities of the GIGA-Lens code, enhancing its efficiency in modeling multi-galaxy strong lens systems. We focus on demonstrating the potential of GPU-accelerated Bayesian inference in handling complex lensing scenarios with a high number of free parameters. We employ an improved inference approach that combines image position and pixelated data with an annealing sampling technique to obtain the posterior distribution of complex models. This method allows us to overcome the challenge of limited prior information, a high number of parameters, and memory usage. Our process is exemplified through the analysis of the compact group lens system DES J0248-3955, for which we present VLT/X-shooter spectra. We measure a redshift of $z = 0.69 \pm 0.04$ for the group, and $z = 1.2722 \pm 0.0005$ for one of the extended arcs. Our enhanced method successfully constrained a lens model with 29 free parameters and lax priors in a remarkably short time. The mass of the lens is well described by a single dark-matter halo with a velocity dispersion of $\sigma_v = (690 \pm 30) \, km \, s^{-1}$. The model predicts the presence of a second source at the same redshift and a third source at approximately $z \sim 2.7$. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of our lens modeling technique for dealing with a complex system in a short time using ground-based data. This presents considerable potential within the context of large surveys such as LSST.

astro-ph.CO

Mass & Light in Galaxy Clusters: The case of Abell 370

Parametric strong lensing studies of galaxy clusters often display "misleading features". This is the case in the galaxy cluster Abell 370. Using strong lensing techniques, it has been described parametrically by a four dark matter clumps model and galaxy scale perturbers, as well as a significant external shear component, which physical origin remains a challenge. The dark matter distribution features a mass clump with no stellar counterpart and a significant offset between one of the dark matter clumps and its associated stellar counterpart. In this paper, based on BUFFALO data, we begin by revisiting this mass model. We find a four dark matter clumps solution which does not require any external shear and provides a slightly better RMS compared to previous models. Investigating further this new solution, we present a class of models which can accurately reproduce the strong lensing data, but whose parameters for the dark matter component are poorly constrained. We then develop a model where each large scale dark matter component must be associated with a stellar counterpart. This model is unable to reproduce the observational constraints with an RMS smaller than 2.3", and the parameters describing this dark matter component remain poorly constrained. Examining the total projected mass maps, we find a good agreement between the total mass and the stellar distribution, both being bimodal. We interpret the "misleading features" of the four dark matter clumps mass model and the failure of the three dark matter clumps mass model as being symptomatic of the lack of realism of a parametric description of the dark matter distribution, and encourage caution and criticism on the outputs of parametric strong lensing modelling. We briefly discuss the implications of our results for using Abell 370 as a gravitational telescope.

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Systematic Effects in Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing with DESI

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey will measure spectroscopic redshifts for millions of galaxies across roughly $14,000 \, \mathrm{deg}^2$ of the sky. Cross-correlating targets in the DESI survey with complementary imaging surveys allows us to measure and analyze shear distortions caused by gravitational lensing in unprecedented detail. In this work, we analyze a series of mock catalogs with ray-traced gravitational lensing and increasing sophistication to estimate systematic effects on galaxy-galaxy lensing estimators such as the tangential shear $\gamma_{\mathrm{t}}$ and the excess surface density $\Delta\Sigma$. We employ mock catalogs tailored to the specific imaging surveys overlapping with the DESI survey: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey, and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). Among others, we find that fiber incompleteness can have significant effects on galaxy-galaxy lensing estimators but can be corrected effectively by up-weighting DESI targets with fibers by the inverse of the fiber assignment probability. Similarly, we show that intrinsic alignment and lens magnification are expected to be statistically significant given the precision forecasted for the DESI year-1 data set. Our study informs several analysis choices for upcoming cross-correlation studies of DESI with DES, HSC, and KiDS.

astro-ph.CO

Impact of assembly bias on clustering plus weak lensing cosmological analysis

Analytical models of galaxy-halo connection such as the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model have been widely used over the past decades as a means to intensively test perturbative models on quasi-linear scales. However, these models fail to reproduce the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal on non-linear scales, over-predicting the observed signal up to 40%. With ongoing Stage-IV galaxy surveys such as DESI and EUCLID, it is now crucial to accurately model the galaxy-halo connection up to intra-halo scales to accurately estimate theoretical uncertainties of perturbative models. This paper compares the standard HOD model to an extended HOD framework that incorporates as additional features galaxy assembly bias and local environmental dependencies on halo occupation. These models have been calibrated against the observed clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing signal of eBOSS Luminous Red Galaxies (LRG) and Emission Lines Galaxies (ELG) in the range 0.6 < z < 1.1. A combined clustering-lensing cosmological analysis is then performed on the simulated galaxy samples of both standard and extended HOD frameworks to quantify the systematic budget of perturbative models. The extended HOD model offers a more comprehensive understanding of the connection between galaxies and their surroundings. In particular, we found that the LRGs preferentially occupy denser and more anisotropic environments. Our results highlight the importance of considering environmental factors in galaxy formation models, with an extended HOD framework that reproduces the observed signal within 20% on scales below 10 Mpc/h. Our cosmological analysis reveals that our perturbative model yields similar constraints regardless of the galaxy population, with a better goodness of fit for the extended HOD. These results suggest that the extended HOD framework should be used to quantify modeling systematics.

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Euclid preparation: XLVIII. The pre-launch Science Ground Segment simulation framework

The European Space Agency's Euclid mission is one of the upcoming generation of large-scale cosmology surveys, which will map the large-scale structure in the Universe with unprecedented precision. The development and validation of the SGS pipeline requires state-of-the-art simulations with a high level of complexity and accuracy that include subtle instrumental features not accounted for previously as well as faster algorithms for the large-scale production of the expected Euclid data products. In this paper, we present the Euclid SGS simulation framework as applied in a large-scale end-to-end simulation exercise named Science Challenge 8. Our simulation pipeline enables the swift production of detailed image simulations for the construction and validation of the Euclid mission during its qualification phase and will serve as a reference throughout operations. Our end-to-end simulation framework starts with the production of a large cosmological N-body & mock galaxy catalogue simulation. We perform a selection of galaxies down to I_E=26 and 28 mag, respectively, for a Euclid Wide Survey spanning 165 deg^2 and a 1 deg^2 Euclid Deep Survey. We build realistic stellar density catalogues containing Milky Way-like stars down to H<26. Using the latest instrumental models for both the Euclid instruments and spacecraft as well as Euclid-like observing sequences, we emulate with high fidelity Euclid satellite imaging throughout the mission's lifetime. We present the SC8 data set consisting of overlapping visible and near-infrared Euclid Wide Survey and Euclid Deep Survey imaging and low-resolution spectroscopy along with ground-based. This extensive data set enables end-to-end testing of the entire ground segment data reduction and science analysis pipeline as well as the Euclid mission infrastructure, paving the way to future scientific and technical developments and enhancements.

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CONCERTO: Simulating the CO, [CII], and [CI] line emission of galaxies in a 117 $\rm deg^2$ field and the impact of field-to-field variance

In the submm regime, spectral line scans and line intensity mapping (LIM) are new promising probes for the cold gas content and star formation rate of galaxies across cosmic time. However, both of these two measurements suffer from field-to-field variance. We study the effect of field-to-field variance on the predicted CO and [CII] power spectra from future LIM experiments such as CONCERTO, as well as on the line luminosity functions (LFs) and the cosmic molecular gas mass density that are currently derived from spectral line scans. We combined a 117 $\rm deg^2$ dark matter lightcone from the Uchuu cosmological simulation with the simulated infrared dusty extragalactic sky (SIDES) approach. We find that in order to constrain the CO LF with an uncertainty below 20%, we need survey sizes of at least 0.1 $\rm deg^2$. Furthermore, accounting for the field-to-field variance using only the Poisson variance can underestimate the total variance by up to 80%. The lower the luminosity is and the larger the survey size is, the higher the level of underestimate. At $z$<3, the impact of field-to-field variance on the cosmic molecular gas density can be as high as 40% for the 4.6 arcmin$^2$ field, but drops below 10% for areas larger than 0.2 deg$^2$. However, at $z>3$ the variance decreases more slowly with survey size and for example drops below 10% for 1 deg$^2$ fields. Finally, we find that the CO and [CII] LIM power spectra can vary by up to 50% in $\rm 1 deg^2$ fields. This limits the accuracy of the constraints provided by the first 1 deg$^2$ surveys. The level of the shot noise power is always dominated by the sources that are just below the detection thresholds. We provide an analytical formula to estimate the field-to-field variance of current or future LIM experiments. The code and the full SIDES-Uchuu products (catalogs, cubes, and maps) are publicly available.

astro-ph.CO