arXiv subjects

E. Massad

Publications and source records attributed to E. Massad.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2009

Vaccination against rubella: Analysis of the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact patterns

In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very specific vaccination programme in a previously nonvaccinated population where rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that can be estimated from the force of infection in steady state prior to the vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland and the United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted and implemented by the government of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2005

An approximate threshold condition for a non-autonomous system: an application to a vector-borne infection

A non-autonomous system is proposed to model the seasonal pattern of dengue fever. We found that an approximate threshold condition for infection persistence describes all possible behavior of the system. As far as we know, the kind of analysis here proposed is entirely new. No precise mathematical theorems are demonstrated but we give enough numerical evidence to support the conclusions.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2005

A schematic age-structured compartment model of the impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence and prevalence

A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment guidelines applied in Brazil. However, the model does not intend to fit the data with any acceptable degree of accuracy since uncertainties on the values of the parameters and on the precise effect of the treatment put some limits on the practical implications of our model from which only orders of magnitude and some qualitative effects can be deduced. So, this paper intends to provide a conceptual and mechanistic understanding of the possible long term effects of treatment on the dynamics of HIV transmission. According to the model, the effect of the treatment depends on the level of sexual activity of the subpopulations considered, being more pronounced on the subpopulations with the highest sexual activity levels. Also, inefficient treatment can be prejudicial depending on the level of sexual activity and on the capacity to provide adequate treatment coverages to the population affected.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2005

An approximate threshold condition for non-autonomous system: an application to a vector-borne infection

An non-autonomous system is proposed to model the seasonal pattern of dengue fever. We found that an approximate threshold condition for infection persistence describes all possible behavior of the system. As far as we know, the kind of analysis here proposed is entirely new. No precise mathematical theorems are demonstrated but we give enough numerical evidence to support the conclusions.

q-bio.PE↗