arXiv subjects

E. Paouris

Publications and source records attributed to E. Paouris.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Ensemble modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection dynamics and forecasts at 1 AU with a semi-analytic flux-rope model

This study quantifies how uncertainty in physically meaningful coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar-wind inputs propagates into forecast-relevant diagnostics from eruption to 1 AU. We use a semi-analytic erupting flux rope (EFR) model to simulate CME initiation and Sun-to-1 AU propagation under Lorentz, gravitational, and drag forces, driven by a prescribed time-dependent poloidal-flux injection. Relative to the original EFR formulation, we include sheath and pile-up effects through an effective mass and update the drag term for CME solar-wind coupling. The model is embedded in a Monte Carlo framework with truncated-normal sampling of key eruption and background solar-wind inputs. Across six CME events, the ensembles show event-dependent dispersion in the 1 AU diagnostics. For +/- 20% input sampling, all spreads are 1-sigma ensemble standard deviations. The time-of-arrival spread is 2.4-7.7 h and is mainly controlled by the poloidal-flux injection history, upstream wind speed, and drag coefficient. The leading-edge speed spread is 28-53 km/s and is primarily controlled by background-flow properties. Magnetic-field diagnostics show two regimes: the sheath field is relatively tightly distributed, with a spread of 1-3.5 nT and sensitivity to upstream wind, size, and expansion scaling, whereas the internal flux-rope field has a larger spread of 1-7.6 nT and is governed mainly by eruption-driving and flux-content parameters. The impact-duration spread is 2.4-6.3 h and is controlled mostly by geometric size and expansion scaling, with additional sensitivity to the driving timescale. These results establish a quantitative link between EFR input uncertainties and the resulting spread in CME arrival and impact diagnostics, identifying the physical parameters that most strongly limit forecast precision at 1 AU.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Shock properties for solar energetic particle events with signatures of inverse velocity arrival

We present a detailed investigation of the shock properties associated with solar energetic particle (SEP) events that exhibit a concave (``nose-like'') shape in their energy spectrogram, characterized by inverse velocity arrival (IVA) of the particles, where high-energy particles arrive later than mid-energy ones. Using measurements from Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe between 2018 and 2025, we identify 26 such SEP events and reconstruct the observed shock fronts in three dimensions. We derive shock parameters along the magnetic field lines connected to each spacecraft using kinematic modeling and coronal magnetohydrodynamic simulations. Our analysis indicates that IVA-SEP events arise due to the spatial and temporal evolution of the shock properties and magnetic connectivity. In most cases analyzed here, the magnetic connectivity starts on the flanks of CME-driven shocks, where shocks tend to be weak, and shifts toward the shock apex sampling stronger portions of the shock front. This evolution of the shock properties at the connected field lines likely leads to the delayed arrival of high-energy particles and the progressive hardening of the SEP energy spectrum, observed in some of the events. We find a correlation between the transition energy at which the IVA begins and the shock speed along the connected field lines, consistent with expectations from time-dependent diffusive shock acceleration. Our results underscore the importance of the evolving shock properties, magnetic connectivity, and instrumental sensitivity in shaping SEP intensity profiles and the formation of IVA signatures.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

CME Propagation Through the Heliosphere: Status and Future of Observations and Model Development

The ISWAT clusters H1+H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. SIRs, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ca. 27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of CMEs into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5-10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver+ (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Facilities of Athens Neutron Monitor Station to Space Weather services

In the frame of the comprehensive knowledge, detection and forecasting of the solar terrestrial relations as well as space weather events, the ground based measurements of the network of neutron monitor constitutes a vital tool for these studies. This is mainly the reason that Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.) beyond of the provision of its real time data, has also developed several research applications. More specifically, applications such as a) an optimized automated Ground Level Enhancement Alert (GLE Alert Plus) b) a web interface, providing data from mul- tiple Neutron Monitor stations (Multi-Station tool) and c) a simulation model, named DYnamic Atmospheric Shower Tracking Interactive Model Application (DYASTIMA), which allows the study of the cosmic ray showers resulted when primary cosmic ray particles enters the atmosphere, have been developed. The two first applications are currently federated products in European Space Agency (ESA) and actually available via the Space Weather Portal operated by ESA. On the other hand, the contribution of the simulation tool DYASTIMA, based on the well known Geant4 toolkit, to the calculations of the radiation dose received by air crews and passengers within the Earth's atmosphere led us to develop an extended application of DYASTIMA named DYASTIMA-R. This new application calculates the energy that is deposited on the phantom and moreover the equivalent dose. Furthermore, a Space Weather Forecasting Center which provides a three day geomagnetic activity report on a daily basis has been set up and is operating at the Athens Neutron Monitor Sta- tion. Finally, all above developed services are in essential importance for the fundamental research as well as for practical applications concerning Space Weather.

physics.space-ph↗