E. S. Kite | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

A research roadmap for assessing the feasibility of warming Mars

This roadmap outlines research pathways to determine whether Mars could be warmed with non-biological methods. It does not presuppose that warming Mars is desirable; its purpose is to identify what would need to be true for Mars to be warmed, what it would cost, and what could go wrong. Three complementary research tracks appear promising. Solid-state greenhouse membranes offer local warming, aiding water harvesting, food production, and oxygen supply near human bases. Orbiting reflectors can warm key sites such as bases and CO$_2$-ice reservoirs, although a large combined area would be required. Strengthening Mars' natural greenhouse effect might warm large regions or the globe, although many aspects remain to be worked out. Each approach carries scientific and technical risks that research must address. Near-term priorities are on-Earth testing of key parameters that will determine whether engineered aerosol warming is realistically possible, assessing whether exponential production of bioplastic habitats is possible, and designing at-Mars process experiments. In the near term, the research proposed here is closely aligned with and supports research needed to understand Mars' atmosphere and volatile evolution and hazards to human explorers. The main external uncertainty is whether or not launch costs continue to fall. This is early-stage research, and we discuss key near-term decision points, alternative pathways, and payoffs if research outcomes are negative. We also outline build-out pathways if research succeeds and demand exists. Relatively modest research investments would keep open the option of extending life beyond Earth as Mars' scientific exploration continues.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2012

Possible Disintegrating Short-Period Super-Mercury Orbiting KIC 12557548

We report here on the discovery of stellar occultations, observed with Kepler, that recur periodically at 15.685 hour intervals, but which vary in depth from a maximum of 1.3% to a minimum that can be less than 0.2%. The star that is apparently being occulted is KIC 12557548, a K dwarf with T_eff = 4400 K and V = 16. Because the eclipse depths are highly variable, they cannot be due solely to transits of a single planet with a fixed size. We discuss but dismiss a scenario involving a binary giant planet whose mutual orbit plane precesses, bringing one of the planets into and out of a grazing transit. We also briefly consider an eclipsing binary, that either orbits KIC 12557548 in a hierarchical triple configuration or is nearby on the sky, but we find such a scenario inadequate to reproduce the observations. We come down in favor of an explanation that involves macroscopic particles escaping the atmosphere of a slowly disintegrating planet not much larger than Mercury. The particles could take the form of micron-sized pyroxene or aluminum oxide dust grains. The planetary surface is hot enough to sublimate and create a high-Z atmosphere; this atmosphere may be loaded with dust via cloud condensation or explosive volcanism. Atmospheric gas escapes the planet via a Parker-type thermal wind, dragging dust grains with it. We infer a mass loss rate from the observations of order 1 M_E/Gyr, with a dust-to-gas ratio possibly of order unity. For our fiducial 0.1 M_E planet, the evaporation timescale may be ~0.2 Gyr. Smaller mass planets are disfavored because they evaporate still more quickly, as are larger mass planets because they have surface gravities too strong to sustain outflows with the requisite mass-loss rates. The occultation profile evinces an ingress-egress asymmetry that could reflect a comet-like dust tail trailing the planet; we present simulations of such a tail.

astro-ph.EP↗