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Eaman Jahani

Publications and source records attributed to Eaman Jahani.

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Prompt Adaptation as a Dynamic Complement in Generative AI Systems

As generative AI systems rapidly improve, a key question emerges: how do users adapt to these changes, and when does such adaptation matter for realizing performance gains? Drawing on theories of dynamic capabilities and IT complements, we study prompt adaptation--how users adjust their inputs in response to evolving model behavior--using a common experimental design applied to two preregistered tasks with 3,750 total participants who submitted nearly 37,000 prompts. We show that the importance of prompt adaptation depends critically on task structure. In a task with fixed evaluation criteria and an unambiguous goal, user prompt adaptation accounts for roughly half of the performance gains from a model upgrade. In contrast, in an open-ended creative task where the space of acceptable outputs is effectively unbounded and quality is subjective, performance improvements are driven primarily by model capability; prompt adaptation plays a limited role. We further show that automated prompt rewriting cannot generally substitute for human adaptation: when aligned with task objectives, it can modestly improve performance, but when misaligned, it can actively undermine the gains from model improvements. Together, these findings position prompt adaptation as a dynamic complement whose importance depends on task structure and system design, and suggest that without it, a substantial share of the economic value created by advances in generative models may go unrealized.

cs.HC

Celebrity messages reduce online hate and limit its spread

Online hate spreads rapidly, yet little is known about whether preventive and scalable strategies can curb it. We conducted the largest randomized controlled trial of hate speech prevention to date: a 20-week messaging campaign on X in Nigeria targeting ethnic hate. 73,136 users who had previously engaged with hate speech were randomly assigned to receive prosocial video messages from Nigerian celebrities. The campaign reduced hate content by 2.5% to 5.5% during treatment, with about 75% of the reduction persisting over the following four months. Reaching a larger share of a user's audience reduced amplification of that user's hate posts among both treated and untreated users, cutting hate reposts by over 50% for the most exposed accounts. Scalable messaging can limit online hate without removing content.

cs.SI

The Network Structure of Unequal Diffusion

Social networks affect the diffusion of information, and thus have the potential to reduce or amplify inequality in access to opportunity. We show empirically that social networks often exhibit a much larger potential for unequal diffusion across groups along paths of length 2 and 3 than expected by our random graph models. We argue that homophily alone cannot not fully explain the extent of unequal diffusion and attribute this mismatch to unequal distribution of cross-group links among the nodes. Based on this insight, we develop a variant of the stochastic block model that incorporates the heterogeneity in cross-group linking. The model provides an unbiased and consistent estimate of assortativity or homophily on paths of length 2 and provide a more accurate estimate along paths of length 3 than existing models. We characterize the null distribution of its log-likelihood ratio test and argue that the goodness of fit test is valid only when the network is dense. Based on our empirical observations and modeling results, we conclude that the impact of any departure from equal distribution of links to source nodes in the diffusion process is not limited to its first order effects as some nodes will have fewer direct links to the sources. More importantly, this unequal distribution will also lead to second order effects as the whole group will have fewer diffusion paths to the sources.

stat.AP

Segregated interactions in urban and online space

Urban income segregation is a widespread phenomenon that challenges societies across the globe. Classical studies on segregation have largely focused on the geographic distribution of residential neighborhoods rather than on patterns of social behaviors and interactions. In this study, we analyze segregation in economic and social interactions by observing credit card transactions and Twitter mentions among thousands of individuals in three culturally different metropolitan areas. We show that segregated interaction is amplified relative to the expected effects of geographic segregation in terms of both purchase activity and online communication. Furthermore, we find that segregation increases with difference in socio-economic status but is asymmetric for purchase activity, i.e., the amount of interaction from poorer to wealthier neighborhoods is larger than vice versa. Our results provide novel insights into the understanding of behavioral segregation in human interactions with significant socio-political and economic implications.

cs.SI

Winning Models for GPA, Grit, and Layoff in the Fragile Families Challenge

In this paper, we discuss and analyze our approach to the Fragile Families Challenge. The challenge involved predicting six outcomes for 4,242 children from disadvantaged families from around the United States. The data consisted of over 12,000 features (covariates) about the children and their parents, schools, and overall environments from birth to age 9. Our approach relied primarily on existing data science techniques, including: (1) data preprocessing: elimination of low variance features, imputation of missing data, and construction of composite features; (2) feature selection through univariate Mutual Information and extraction of non-zero LASSO coefficients; (3) three machine learning models: Random Forest, Elastic Net, and Gradient-Boosted Trees; and finally (4) prediction aggregation according to performance. The top-performing submissions produced winning out-of-sample predictions for three outcomes: GPA, grit, and layoff. However, predictions were at most 20% better than a baseline that predicted the mean value of the training data of each outcome.

stat.AP

Estimating individual employment status using mobile phone network data

This study provides the first confirmation that individual employment status can be predicted from standard mobile phone network logs externally validated with household survey data. Individual welfare and households vulnerability to shocks are intimately connected to employment status and professions of household breadwinners. At a societal level unemployment is an important indicator of the performance of an economy. By deriving a broad set of novel mobile phone network indicators reflecting users financial, social and mobility patterns we show how machine learning models can be used to predict 18 categories of profession in a South-Asian developing country. The model predicts individual unemployment status with 70.4 percent accuracy. We further show how unemployment can be aggregated from individual level and mapped geographically at cell tower resolution, providing a promising approach to map labor market economic indicators, and the distribution of economic productivity and vulnerability between censuses, especially in heterogeneous urban areas. The method also provides a promising approach to support data collection on vulnerable populations, which are frequently under-represented in official surveys.

cs.SI

Automatic Optimization for MapReduce Programs

The MapReduce distributed programming framework has become popular, despite evidence that current implementations are inefficient, requiring far more hardware than a traditional relational databases to complete similar tasks. MapReduce jobs are amenable to many traditional database query optimizations (B+Trees for selections, column-store- style techniques for projections, etc), but existing systems do not apply them, substantially because free-form user code obscures the true data operation being performed. For example, a selection in SQL is easily detected, but a selection in a MapReduce program is embedded in Java code along with lots of other program logic. We could ask the programmer to provide explicit hints about the program's data semantics, but one of MapReduce's attractions is precisely that it does not ask the user for such information. This paper covers Manimal, which automatically analyzes MapReduce programs and applies appropriate data- aware optimizations, thereby requiring no additional help at all from the programmer. We show that Manimal successfully detects optimization opportunities across a range of data operations, and that it yields speedups of up to 1,121% on previously-written MapReduce programs.

cs.DB