arXiv subjects

Eamonn Kerins

Publications and source records attributed to Eamonn Kerins.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Mutual detectability: a targeted SETI strategy that avoids the SETI Paradox

As our ability to undertake more powerful Searches for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) grows, so does interest in the more controversial endeavour of Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI). METI proponents point to the SETI Paradox - if all civilisations refrain from METI then SETI is futile. I introduce Mutual Detectability as a game-theoretic strategy aimed at increasing the success potential of targeted SETI. Mutual detectability is embodied by four laws: mutuality, symmetry, opportunity and superiority. These laws establish how SETI participants can engage each other using game theory principles applied to mutual evidence of mutual existence. The law of superiority establishes an "onus to transmit" on the party whom both SETI participants can judge to have better quality evidence, or common denominator information (CDI), thus avoiding the SETI Paradox. I argue that transiting exoplanets within the Earth Transit Zone form a target subset that satisfies mutual detectability requirements. I identify the intrinsic time-integrated transit signal strength as suitable CDI. Civilisations on habitable-zone planets of radius $R_{\rm p}/R_{\oplus} \lesssim (L_*/L_{\odot})^{-1/7}$ have superior CDI on us, so have game-theory incentive (onus) to transmit. Whilst this implies that the onus to transmit falls on us for habitable planets around $L_* > L_{\odot}$ stars, considerations of relative stellar frequency, main-sequence lifetime and planet occurrence mean such systems are likely a small minority. Surveys of the Earth Transit Zone for Earth-analogue transits around sub-solar luminosity hosts, followed up by targeted SETI monitoring of them, represent an efficient strategy compliant with mutual detectability. A choice to remain silent, by not engaging in METI towards such systems, does not in this case fuel concerns of a SETI Paradox.

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arXiv2020

MaB$μ$lS-2: high-precision microlensing modelling for the large-scale survey era

Galactic microlensing datasets now comprise in excess of $10^4$ events, and with the advent of next generation microlensing surveys that may be undertaken with facilities such as the Rubin Observatory (formerly LSST) and Roman Space Telescope (formerly WFIRST), this number will increase significantly. So too will the fraction of events with measurable higher order information such as finite source effects and lens-source relative proper motion. Analysing such data requires a more sophisticated Galactic microlens modeling approach. We present a new second-generation Manchester-Besançon Microlensing Simulator (MaB$μ$lS-2), which uses a version of the Besançon population synthesis Galactic model that provides good agreement with stellar kinematics observed by HST towards the bulge. MaB$μ$lS-2 provides high-fidelity signal-to-noise limited maps of the microlensing optical depth, rate and average timescale towards a 400 sq. degree region of the Galactic bulge in several optical to near-infrared pass-bands. The maps take full account of the unresolved stellar background as well as limb-darkened source profiles. Comparing MaB$μ$lS-2 to the efficiency-corrected OGLE-IV 8,000 event sample shows a much improved agreement over the previous version of MaB$μ$lS, and succeeds in matching even small-scale structural features in the OGLE-IV event rate map. However, there remains evidence for a small under-prediction in the event rate per source and over-prediction in timescale. MaB$μ$lS-2 is available online ( ) to provide on-the-fly maps for user supplied cuts in survey magnitude, event timescale and relative proper motion.

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arXiv2020

Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey II: Free-Floating Planet Detection Rates

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will perform a Galactic Exoplanet Survey (RGES) to discover bound exoplanets with semi-major axes greater than 1 au using gravitational microlensing. Roman will even be sensitive to planetary mass objects that are not gravitationally bound to any host star. Such free-floating planetary mass objects (FFPs) will be detected as isolated microlensing events with timescales shorter than a few days. A measurement of the abundance and mass function of FFPs is a powerful diagnostic of the formation and evolution of planetary systems, as well as the physics of the formation of isolated objects via direct collapse. We show that Roman will be sensitive to FFP lenses that have masses from that of Mars ($0.1 M_\oplus$) to gas giants ($M\gtrsim100M_\oplus$) as isolated lensing events with timescales from a few hours to several tens of days, respectively. We investigate the impact of the detection criteria on the survey, especially in the presence of finite-source effects for low-mass lenses. The number of detections will depend on the abundance of such FFPs as a function of mass, which is at present poorly constrained. Assuming that FFPs follow the fiducial mass function of cold, bound planets adapted from Cassan et al. (2012), we estimate that Roman will detect $\sim250$ FFPs with masses down to that of Mars (including $\sim 60$ with masses $\le M_\oplus$). We also predict that Roman will improve the upper limits on FFP populations by at least an order of magnitude compared to currently-existing constraints.

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arXiv2019

Measurement of the Free-Floating Planet Mass Function with Simultaneous Euclid and WFIRST Microlensing Parallax Observations

Free-floating planets are the remnants of violent dynamical rearrangements of planetary systems. It is possible that even our own solar system ejected a large planet early in its evolution. WFIRST will have the ability to detect free-floating planets over a wide range of masses, but it will not be able to directly measure their masses. Microlensing parallax observations can be used to measure the masses of isolated objects, including free-floating planets, by observing their microlensing events from two locations. The intra-L2 separation between WFIRST and Euclid is large enough to enable microlensing parallax measurements, especially given the exquisite photometric precision that both spacecraft are capable of over wide fields. In this white paper we describe how a modest investment of observing time could yield hundreds of parallax measurements for WFIRST's bound and free-floating planets. We also describe how a short observing campaign of precursor observations by Euclid can improve WFIRST's bound planet and host star mass measurements.

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arXiv2018

Predictions of the WFIRST Microlensing Survey I: Bound Planet Detection Rates

The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is the next NASA astrophysics flagship mission, to follow the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The WFIRST mission was chosen as the top-priority large space mission of the 2010 astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey in order to achieve three primary goals: to study dark energy via a wide-field imaging survey, to study exoplanets via a microlensing survey, and to enable a guest observer program. Here we assess the ability of the several WFIRST designs to achieve the goal of the microlensing survey to discover a large sample of cold, low-mass exoplanets with semimajor axes beyond roughly one AU, which are largely impossible to detect with any other technique. We present the results of a suite of simulations that span the full range of the proposed WFIRST architectures, from the original design envisioned by the decadal survey, to the current design, which utilizes a 2.4-m telescope donated to NASA. By studying such a broad range of architectures, we are able to determine the impact of design trades on the expected yields of detected exoplanets. In estimating the yields we take particular care to ensure that our assumed Galactic model predicts microlensing event rates that match observations, consider the impact that inaccuracies in the Galactic model might have on the yields, and ensure that numerical errors in lightcurve computations do not bias the yields for the smallest mass exoplanets. For the nominal baseline WFIRST design and a fiducial planet mass function, we predict that a total of ${\sim}1400$ bound exoplanets with mass greater than ${\sim}0.1~M_{\oplus}$ should be detected, including ${\sim}200$ with mass ${\lesssim}3~M_{\oplus}$. WFIRST should have sensitivity to planets with mass down to ${\sim}0.02~M_{\oplus}$, or roughly the mass of Ganymede.

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arXiv2018

Pre-discovery transits of the exoplanets WASP-18 b and WASP-33 b from Hipparcos

We recover transits of WASP-18 b and WASP-33 b from Hipparcos (1989-1993) photometry. Marginal detections of HAT-P-56 b and HAT-P-2 b may be also present in the data. New ephemerides are fitted to WASP-18 b and WASP-33 b. A tentative (~1.3 sigma) orbital decay is measured for WASP-18 b, but the implied tidal quality factor (Q' ~ 5 x 10^5) is small and survival time (<10^6 years) is too short to be likely. No orbital decay is measured for WASP-33 b, and a limit of Q' > 2 x 10^5 is placed. For both planets, the uncertainties in published ephemerides appear underestimated: the uncertainty in the period derivative of WASP-18 b would be greatly reduced if its current ephemeris could be better determined.

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arXiv2017

MOA-2016-BLG-227Lb: A Massive Planet Characterized by Combining Lightcurve Analysis and Keck AO Imaging

We report the discovery of a microlensing planet --- MOA-2016-BLG-227Lb --- with a large planet/host mass ratio of $q \simeq 9 \times 10^{-3}$. This event was located near the $K2$ Campaign 9 field that was observed by a large number of telescopes. As a result, the event was in the microlensing survey area of a number of these telescopes, and this enabled good coverage of the planetary light curve signal. High angular resolution adaptive optics images from the Keck telescope reveal excess flux at the position of the source above the flux of the source star, as indicated by the light curve model. This excess flux could be due to the lens star, but it could also be due to a companion to the source or lens star, or even an unrelated star. We consider all these possibilities in a Bayesian analysis in the context of a standard Galactic model. Our analysis indicates that it is unlikely that a large fraction of the excess flux comes from the lens, unless solar type stars are much more likely to host planets of this mass ratio than lower mass stars. We recommend that a method similar to the one developed in this paper be used for other events with high angular resolution follow-up observations when the follow-up observations are insufficient to measure the lens-source relative proper motion.

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arXiv2016

Predictions for the Detection and Characterization of a Population of Free-Floating Planets with K2 Campaign 9

K2 Campaign 9 (K2C9) offers the first chance to measure parallaxes and masses of members of the large population of free-floating planets (FFPs) that has previously been inferred from measurements of the rate of short-timescale microlensing events. Using detailed simulations of the nominal campaign (ignoring the loss of events due to Kepler's emergency mode) and ground-based microlensing surveys, we predict the number of events that can be detected if there is a population of 1-Jupiter-mass FFPs matching current observational constraints. Using a Fisher matrix analysis we also estimate the number of detections for which it will be possible to measure the microlensing parallax, angular Einstein radius and FFP mass. We predict that between 1.4 and 7.9 events will be detected in the K2 data, depending on the noise floor that can be reached, but with the optimistic scenario being more likely. For nearly all of these it will be possible to either measure the parallax or constrain it to be probabilistically consistent with only planetary-mass lenses. We expect that for between 0.42 and 0.98 events it will be possible to gain a complete solution and measure the FFP mass. For the emergency mode truncated campaign, these numbers are reduced by 20~percent. We argue that when combined with prompt high-resolution imaging of a larger sample of short-timescale events, K2C9 will conclusively determine if the putative FFP population is indeed both planetary and free-floating.

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arXiv2015

Besançon Galactic model analysis of MOA-II microlensing: evidence for a mass deficit in the inner bulge

Galactic bulge microlensing surveys provide a probe of Galactic structure. We present the first field-by-field comparison between microlensing observations and the Besançon population synthesis Galactic model. Using an updated version of the model we provide maps of optical depth, average event duration and event rate for resolved source populations and for difference imaging (DIA) events. We also compare the predicted event timescale distribution to that observed. The simulation follows the selection criteria of the MOA-II survey (Sumi et al. 2013). We modify the Besançon model to include M dwarfs and brown dwarfs. Our best fit model requires a brown dwarf mass function slope of $-0.4$. The model provides good agreement with the observed average duration, and respectable consistency with the shape of the timescale distribution (reduced $χ^2 \simeq 2.2$). The DIA and resolved source limiting yields bracket the observed number of events by MOA-II ($2.17\times$ and $0.83\times$ the number observed, respectively). We perform a 2-dimensional fit to the event spatial distribution to predict the optical depth and event rate across the Galactic bulge. The most serious difficulty for the model is that it provides only $\sim 50\%$ of the measured optical depth and event rate per star at low Galactic latitude around the inner bulge ($|b|<3{^\circ}$). This discrepancy most likely is associated with known under-estimated extinction and star counts in the innermost regions and therefore provides additional support for a missing inner stellar population.

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arXiv2014

VISTA Variables in the Vía Láctea (VVV): Halfway Status and Results

The VISTA Variables in the Vía Láctea (VVV) survey is one of six public ESO surveys, and is now in its 4th year of observing. Although far from being complete, the VVV survey has already delivered many results, some directly connected to the intended science goals (detection of variables stars, microlensing events, new star clusters), others concerning more exotic objects, e.g. novae. Now, at the end of the fourth observing period, and comprising roughly 50% of the proposed observations, the actual status of the survey, as well some of the results based on the VVV data, are presented.

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arXiv2014

Reference image selection for difference imaging analysis

Difference image analysis (DIA) is an effective technique for obtaining photometry in crowded fields, relative to a chosen reference image. As yet, however, optimal reference image selection is an unsolved problem. We examine how this selection depends on the combination of seeing, background and detector pixel size. Our tests use a combination of simulated data and quality indicators from DIA of well-sampled optical data and under-sampled near-infrared data from the OGLE and VVV surveys, respectively. We search for a figure-of-merit (FoM) which could be used to select reference images for each survey. While we do not find a universally applicable FoM, survey-specific measures indicate that the effect of spatial under-sampling may require a change in strategy from the standard DIA approach, even though seeing remains the primary criterion. We find that background is not an important criterion for reference selection, at least for the dynamic range in the images we test. For our analysis of VVV data in particular, we find that spatial under-sampling is best handled by reversing the standard DIA procedure and convolving target images to a better-sampled (poor seeing) reference image.

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arXiv2014

VISTA variables in the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy: pulsation- vs. dust-driven winds on the giant branches

Variability is examined in over 2.6 million stars covering 11 square degrees of the core of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy (Sgr dSph) from VISTA Z-band observations. Generally, pulsation on the Sgr dSph giant branches appears to be excited by the internal kappa mechanism. Pulsation amplitudes appear identical between red and asymptotic (RGB/AGB) giant stars, and between unreddened carbon and oxygen-rich stars at the same luminosity. The lack of correlation between infrared excess and variability among oxygen-rich stars indicates pulsations do not contribute significantly to wind driving in oxygen-rich stars in the Sgr dSph, though the low amplitudes of these stars mean this may not apply elsewhere. The dust-enshrouded carbon stars have the highest amplitudes of the stars we observe. Only in these stars does an external kappa-mechanism-driven pulsation seem likely, caused by variations in their more-opaque carbon-rich molecules or dust. This may allow pulsation driving of winds to be effective in carbon stars. Variability can be simplified to a power law (amplitude proportional to L/T^2), as in other systems. In total, we identify 3026 variable stars (with r.m.s. variability of delta Z >~ 0.015 magnitudes), of which 176 are long-period variables associable with the upper giant branches of the Sgr dSph. We also identify 324 candidate RR Lyrae variables in the the Sgr dSph and 340 in the outer Galactic Bulge.

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arXiv2013

The detectability of habitable exomoons with Kepler

In this paper, the detectability of habitable exomoons orbiting around giant planets in M-dwarf systems using Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) and Transit Timing Durations (TDVs) with Kepler-class photometry is investigated. Light curves of systems with various configurations were simulated around M-dwarf hosts of mass 0.5 Msun and radius 0.55 Rsun. Jupiter-like giant planets which offer the best potential for hosting habitable exomoons were considered with rocky super-Earth-mass moons. The detectability is measured by using the phase-correlation between TTV and TDV signals. Since the TDV signal is typically weaker than the TTV signal, confirmation of an exomoon detection will depend on being able to detect a TDV signal. We find that exomoons around planets orbiting within the habitable zone of an M-dwarf host star can produce both detectable TTV and TDV signatures with Kepler-class photometry. While aliasing between the planet period and moon period may hinder exomoon detection, we also find some strong correlation signatures in our simulation (eg. correlation: >0.7) which would provide convincing exomoon signatures. With the addition of red noise stellar variability, correlations generally weaken. However simulated examples with planet masses less than around 25 Mearth, moons of mass 8-10 Mearth and specific values of planet and moon periods still yield detectable correlation in 25-50% of cases. Our simulation indicates that Kepler provides one of the best available opportunities for exomoon detection.

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arXiv2011

Rapidly Rotating Lenses: Repeating features in the lightcurves of short period binary microlenses

Microlensing is most sensitive to binary lenses with relatively large orbital separations, and as such, typical binary microlensing events show little or no orbital motion during the event. However, despite the strength of binary microlensing features falling off rapidly as the lens separation decreases, we show that it is possible to detect repeating features in the lightcurve of binary microlenses that complete several orbits during the microlensing event. We investigate the lightcurve features of such Rapidly Rotating Lens (RRL) events. We derive analytical limits on the range of parameters where these effects are detectable, and confirm these numerically. Using a population synthesis Galactic model we estimate the RRL event rate for a ground-based and space-based microlensing survey to be 0.32fb and 7.8fb events per year respectively, assuming year-round monitoring and where fb is the binary fraction. We detail how RRL event parameters can be quickly estimated from their lightcurves, and suggest a method to model RRL events using timing measurements of lightcurve features. Modelling RRL lightcurves will yield the lens orbital period and possibly measurements of all orbital elements including the inclination and eccentricity. Measurement of the period from the lightcurve allows a mass-distance relation to be defined, which when combined with a measurement of microlens parallax or finite source effects, can yield a mass measurement to a two-fold degeneracy. With sub-percent accuracy photometry it is possible to detect planetary companions, but the likelihood of this is very small.

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arXiv2010

Detectability of Orbital Motion in Stellar Binary and Planetary Microlenses

A standard binary microlensing event lightcurve allows just two parameters of the lensing system to be measured: the mass ratio of the companion to its host, and the projected separation of the components in units of the Einstein radius. However, other exotic effects can provide more information about the lensing system. Orbital motion in the lens is one such effect, which if detected, can be used to constrain the physical properties of the lens. To determine the fraction of binary lens lightcurves affected by orbital motion (the detection efficiency) we simulate lightcurves of orbiting binary star and star-planet (planetary) lenses and simulate the continuous, high-cadence photometric monitoring that will be conducted by the next generation of microlensing surveys that are beginning to enter operation. The effect of orbital motion is measured by fitting simulated lightcurve data with standard static binary microlensing models; lightcurves that are poorly fit by these models are considered to be detections of orbital motion. We correct for systematic false positive detections by also fitting the lightcurves of static binary lenses. For a continuous monitoring survey without intensive follow-up of high magnification events, we find the orbital motion detection efficiency for planetary events with caustic crossings to be 0.061+-0.010, consistent with observational results, and 0.0130+-0.0055 for events without caustic crossings (smooth events). Similarly for stellar binaries, the orbital motion detection efficiency is 0.098+-0.011 for events with caustic crossings and is 0.048+-0.006 for smooth events. These result in combined (caustic crossing and smooth) orbital motion detection efficiencies of 0.029+-0.005 for planetary lenses and 0.070+-0.006 for stellar binary lenses. We also investigate how various microlensing parameters affect the orbital motion detectability. [Abridged]

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arXiv2003

Lighting up the dark and dim in the Andromeda Galaxy

I discuss current and future applications of pixel lensing: the microlensing of unresolved stars. Pixel lensing is the tool of choice for studying the Macho dark matter content of external galaxies like Andromeda (M31), and is at the heart of an ambitious new proposal to undertake a census of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs in the M31 bulge.

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arXiv2000

MACHOs and the clouds of uncertainty

I review proposals for explaining the current gravitational microlensing results from the EROS and MACHO surveys towards the Magellanic Clouds. Solutions involving massive compact halo objects (MACHOs), both baryonic and non-baryonic, as well as solutions that do not require MACHOs, are discussed. Whilst the existence and nature of MACHOs remains to be established, the prospects for achieving this over the next few years are good.

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arXiv2000

Pixel lensing towards M31 in principle and in practice

The Andromeda galaxy (M31) provides a new line of sight for Galactic MACHO studies and also a signature, near-far asymmetry, which may establish the existence of MACHOs in the M31 halo. We outline the principles behind the so-called ``pixel-lensing'' experiments monitoring unresolved stars in M31. We present detailed simulations of the POINT-AGAPE survey now underway, which is using the INT wide-field camera to map the microlensing distribution over a substantial fraction of the M31 disc. We address the extent to which pixel-lensing observables, which differ from those of classical microlensing, can be used to determine the contribution and mass of M31 MACHOs. We also present some preliminary light-curves obtained from the first season (1999/2000) of INT data.

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