arXiv subjects

Earl Lawrence

Publications and source records attributed to Earl Lawrence.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

An Agentic Orchestration of Atomistic Simulations

Atomistic simulations are central to materials design, but their execution involves complex, multi-step workflows that require significant human expertise. Here, we present an agent-based system embedded within the URSA (Universal Research and Scientific Agent) framework that automates the design, execution, and validation of atomistic simulations, demonstrated using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS) tool. Our system autonomously selects interatomic potentials, constructs and runs simulations, and performs iterative error recovery within a closed-loop workflow. We evaluate the scientific reliability of the agent by benchmarking its outputs against LAVA, a high-throughput toolkit for LAMMPS and the Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP) calculations. Our framework reduces manual intervention and trial-and-error, thereby improving the rigor, reproducibility, and scalability of atomistic modeling.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

DiffUNet^2: Bidirectional Prediction, Probabilistic Generation and Collaborative Visual Discovery for Scientific Data

Modeling temporal evolution is important to analyzing and reasoning about scientific phenomena, yet most machine learning methods provide deterministic forward predictions that overlook multiple plausible outcomes and rarely support backward reasoning, limiting their usefulness in practical scientific workflows. We present a framework that integrates diffusion-based generative modeling with interactive visual analytics for scientific exploration. We introduce DiffUNet^2, a conditional diffusion model that enables bidirectional, any-to-any generation across time and captures distributions of plausible system evolutions. Built upon the model, our interactive system supports branching timeline exploration, user-guided state editing, and probability-space navigation, enabling scientists to actively explore alternative hypotheses rather than passively observe predictions. We evaluate the model on 5 datasets across different scientific domains to validate its predictive accuracy and probability-space ensemble quality. In collaboration with domain experts, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in supporting practical scientific temporal data analysis workflows. By integrating modeling and visual interaction, our approach enables scientists to interactively explore system dynamics, transforming generative models into tools for hypothesis-driven scientific analysis.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

In-context learning enables continental-scale subsurface temperature prediction from sparse local observations

Continental-scale knowledge of subsurface temperature is limited by the cost and sparsity of borehole measurements, but such information is essential for geothermal resource assessment and for understanding heat transport in the shallow crust. The thermal field reflects the interaction between lithology, crustal structure, radiogenic heat production, and advective fluid flow, sometimes producing sharp anomalies that are smoothed by conventional interpolation or difficult to capture with physical models. Here we introduce In-Context Earth, a transformer-based model that uses sparse local borehole observations as geological context to predict continuous temperature-at-depth fields with calibrated uncertainty. In the contiguous United States, the model achieves a mean absolute error of 4.7 {\deg}C, outperforming the physics-informed Stanford Thermal Model, a model based on AlphaEarth embeddings, the multimodal Transparent Earth model, and universal kriging, while resolving sharper thermal gradients in geothermal provinces. Its uncertainty estimates are well calibrated, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic of 2.5%. Without finetuning, the model adapts to Alberta, Australia, and the United Kingdom (UK) using only 20 local observations at inference time, maintaining high accuracy in geologically distinct test regions with a mean absolute error of 2.2 {\deg}C in Alberta, 6.2 {\deg}C in Australia, and 5.4 {\deg}C in the UK. Interpretability analyses show that the model learns internal representations of subsurface properties it never observes during training, including seismic velocities, geochemistry, and crustal structure, and uses these representations in physically consistent ways. More broadly, this work shows that in-context learning can use sparse borehole observations for continental-scale subsurface characterization, without requiring dense measurements or region-specific retraining.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Out-of-distribution transfer of PDE foundation models to material dynamics under extreme loading

Most PDE foundation models are pretrained and fine-tuned on fluid-centric benchmarks. Their utility under extreme-loading material dynamics remains unclear. We benchmark out-of-distribution transfer on two discontinuity-dominated regimes in which shocks, evolving interfaces, and fracture produce highly non-smooth fields: shock-driven multi-material interface dynamics (perturbed layered interface or PLI) and dynamic fracture/failure evolution (FRAC). We formulate the downstream task as terminal-state prediction, i.e., learning a long-horizon map that predicts the final state directly from the first snapshot without intermediate supervision. Using a unified training and evaluation protocol, we evaluate two open-source pretrained PDE foundation models, POSEIDON and MORPH, and compare fine-tuning from pretrained weights against training from scratch across training-set sizes to quantify sample efficiency under distribution shift.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

PDE foundation model-accelerated inverse estimation of system parameters in inertial confinement fusion

PDE foundation models are typically pretrained on large, diverse corpora of PDE datasets and can be adapted to new settings with limited task-specific data. However, most downstream evaluations focus on forward problems, such as autoregressive rollout prediction. In this work, we study an inverse problem in inertial confinement fusion (ICF): estimating system parameters (inputs) from multi-modal, snapshot-style observations (outputs). Using the open JAG benchmark, which provides hyperspectral X-ray images and scalar observables per simulation, we finetune the PDE foundation model and train a lightweight task-specific head to jointly reconstruct hyperspectral images and regress system parameters. The fine-tuned model achieves accurate hyperspectral reconstruction (test MSE 1.2e-3) and strong parameter-estimation performance (up to R^2=0.995). Data-scaling experiments (5%-100% of the training set) show consistent improvements in both reconstruction and regression losses as the amount of training data increases, with the largest marginal gains in the low-data regime. Finally, finetuning from pretrained MORPH weights outperforms training the same architecture from scratch, demonstrating that foundation-model initialization improves sample efficiency for data-limited inverse problems in ICF.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Loss Landscape Geometry of Partial Differential Equation Emulators: Or, Symmetry Learning via Gradient Alignment

We study how neural emulators of partial differential equation solution operators internalize physical symmetries by introducing an influence-based diagnostic that measures the propagation of parameter updates between symmetry-related states, defined as the metric-weighted overlap of loss gradients evaluated along group orbits. This quantity probes the local geometry of the learned loss landscape and goes beyond forward-pass equivariance tests by directly assessing whether learning dynamics couple physically equivalent configurations. Applying our diagnostic to autoregressive fluid flow emulators, we show that orbit-wise gradient coherence provides the mechanism for learning to generalize over symmetry transformations and indicates when training selects a symmetry compatible basin. The result is a novel technique for evaluating if surrogate models have internalized symmetry properties of the known solution operator.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

MORPH: PDE Foundation Models with Arbitrary Data Modality

We introduce MORPH, a modality-agnostic, autoregressive foundation model for partial differential equations (PDEs). MORPH is built on a convolutional vision transformer backbone that seamlessly handles heterogeneous spatiotemporal datasets of varying data modality (1D--3D) at different resolutions, and multiple fields with mixed scalar and vector components. The architecture combines (i) component-wise convolution, which jointly processes scalar and vector channels to capture local interactions, (ii) inter-field cross-attention, which models and selectively propagates information between different physical fields, (iii) axial attentions, which factorize full spatiotemporal self-attention along individual spatial and temporal axes to reduce computational burden while retaining expressivity. We pretrain multiple model variants on a diverse collection of heterogeneous PDE datasets and evaluate transfer to a range of downstream prediction tasks. Using both full-model fine-tuning and parameter-efficient low-rank adapters, MORPH outperforms models trained from scratch. Across extensive evaluations, MORPH matches or surpasses strong baselines and recent state-of-the-art models. Collectively, these capabilities present a flexible and powerful backbone for learning from the heterogeneous and multimodal nature of scientific observations, charting a path toward scalable and data-efficient scientific machine learning. The source code, datasets, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/lanl/MORPH.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Towards Reasoning for PDE Foundation Models: A Reward-Model-Driven Inference-Time-Scaling Algorithm

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) are the bedrock for modern computational sciences and engineering, and inherently computationally expensive. While PDE foundation models have shown much promise for simulating such complex spatio-temporal phenomena, existing models remain constrained by the pretraining datasets and struggle with auto-regressive rollout performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) cases. Furthermore, they have significant compute and training data requirements which hamper their use in many critical applications. Inspired by recent advances in ``thinking" strategies used in large language models (LLMs), we introduce the first test-time computing (TTC) strategy for PDEs that utilizes computational resources during inference to achieve more accurate predictions with fewer training samples and smaller models. We accomplish this with two types of reward models that evaluate predictions of a stochastic based model for spatio-temporal consistency. We demonstrate this method on compressible Euler-equation simulations from the PDEGym benchmark and show that TTC captures improved predictions relative to standard non-adaptive auto-regressive inference. This TTC framework marks a foundational step towards more advanced reasoning algorithms or PDE modeling, inluding building reinforcement-learning-based approaches, potentially transforming computational workflows in physics and engineering.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Generalization vs. Memorization in Autoregressive Deep Learning: Or, Examining Temporal Decay of Gradient Coherence

Foundation models trained as autoregressive PDE surrogates hold significant promise for accelerating scientific discovery through their capacity to both extrapolate beyond training regimes and efficiently adapt to downstream tasks despite a paucity of examples for fine-tuning. However, reliably achieving genuine generalization - a necessary capability for producing novel scientific insights and robustly performing during deployment - remains a critical challenge. Establishing whether or not these requirements are met demands evaluation metrics capable of clearly distinguishing genuine model generalization from mere memorization. We apply the influence function formalism to systematically characterize how autoregressive PDE surrogates assimilate and propagate information derived from diverse physical scenarios, revealing fundamental limitations of standard models and training routines in addition to providing actionable insights regarding the design of improved surrogates.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2025

A Foundation Model for Material Fracture Prediction

Accurately predicting when and how materials fail is critical to designing safe, reliable structures, mechanical systems, and engineered components that operate under stress. Yet, fracture behavior remains difficult to model across the diversity of materials, geometries, and loading conditions in real-world applications. While machine learning (ML) methods show promise, most models are trained on narrow datasets, lack robustness, and struggle to generalize. Meanwhile, physics-based simulators offer high-fidelity predictions but are fragmented across specialized methods and require substantial high-performance computing resources to explore the input space. To address these limitations, we present a data-driven foundation model for fracture prediction, a transformer-based architecture that operates across simulators, a wide range of materials (including plastic-bonded explosives, steel, aluminum, shale, and tungsten), and diverse loading conditions. The model supports both structured and unstructured meshes, combining them with large language model embeddings of textual input decks specifying material properties, boundary conditions, and solver settings. This multimodal input design enables flexible adaptation across simulation scenarios without changes to the model architecture. The trained model can be fine-tuned with minimal data on diverse downstream tasks, including time-to-failure estimation, modeling fracture evolution, and adapting to combined finite-discrete element method simulations. It also generalizes to unseen materials such as titanium and concrete, requiring as few as a single sample, dramatically reducing data needs compared to standard ML. Our results show that fracture prediction can be unified under a single model architecture, offering a scalable, extensible alternative to simulator-specific workflows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Partitioned Sparse Variational Gaussian Process for Fast, Distributed Spatial Modeling

The next generation of Department of Energy supercomputers will be capable of exascale computation. For these machines, far more computation will be possible than that which can be saved to disk. As a result, users will be unable to rely on post-hoc access to data for uncertainty quantification and other statistical analyses and there will be an urgent need for sophisticated machine learning algorithms which can be trained in situ. Algorithms deployed in this setting must be highly scalable, memory efficient and capable of handling data which is distributed across nodes as spatially contiguous partitions. One suitable approach involves fitting a sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGP) model independently and in parallel to each spatial partition. The resulting model is scalable, efficient and generally accurate, but produces the undesirable effect of constructing discontinuous response surfaces due to the disagreement between neighboring models at their shared boundary. In this paper, we extend this idea by allowing for a small amount of communication between neighboring spatial partitions which encourages better alignment of the local models, leading to smoother spatial predictions and a better fit in general. Due to our decentralized communication scheme, the proposed extension remains highly scalable and adds very little overhead in terms of computation (and none, in terms of memory). We demonstrate this Partitioned SVGP (PSVGP) approach for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and compare the results to the independent SVGP case.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

VizGenie: Toward Self-Refining, Domain-Aware Workflows for Next-Generation Scientific Visualization

We present VizGenie, a self-improving, agentic framework that advances scientific visualization through large language model (LLM) by orchestrating of a collection of domain-specific and dynamically generated modules. Users initially access core functionalities--such as threshold-based filtering, slice extraction, and statistical analysis--through pre-existing tools. For tasks beyond this baseline, VizGenie autonomously employs LLMs to generate new visualization scripts (e.g., VTK Python code), expanding its capabilities on-demand. Each generated script undergoes automated backend validation and is seamlessly integrated upon successful testing, continuously enhancing the system's adaptability and robustness. A distinctive feature of VizGenie is its intuitive natural language interface, allowing users to issue high-level feature-based queries (e.g., ``visualize the skull"). The system leverages image-based analysis and visual question answering (VQA) via fine-tuned vision models to interpret these queries precisely, bridging domain expertise and technical implementation. Additionally, users can interactively query generated visualizations through VQA, facilitating deeper exploration. Reliability and reproducibility are further strengthened by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), providing context-driven responses while maintaining comprehensive provenance records. Evaluations on complex volumetric datasets demonstrate significant reductions in cognitive overhead for iterative visualization tasks. By integrating curated domain-specific tools with LLM-driven flexibility, VizGenie not only accelerates insight generation but also establishes a sustainable, continuously evolving visualization practice. The resulting platform dynamically learns from user interactions, consistently enhancing support for feature-centric exploration and reproducible research in scientific visualization.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

URSA: The Universal Research and Scientific Agent

Large language models (LLMs) have moved far beyond their initial form as simple chatbots, now carrying out complex reasoning, planning, writing, coding, and research tasks. These skills overlap significantly with those that human scientists use day-to-day to solve complex problems that drive the cutting edge of research. Using LLMs in \quotes{agentic} AI has the potential to revolutionize modern science and remove bottlenecks to progress. In this work, we present URSA, a scientific agent ecosystem for accelerating research tasks. URSA consists of a set of modular agents and tools, including coupling to advanced physics simulation codes, that can be combined to address scientific problems of varied complexity and impact. This work highlights the architecture of URSA, as well as examples that highlight the potential of the system.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian "Deep" Process Convolutions: An Application in Cosmology

The nonlinear matter power spectrum in cosmology describes how matter density fluctuations vary with scale in the universe, providing critical insights into large-scale structure formation. The matter power spectrum includes both smooth regions and highly oscillatory features. Cosmologists rely on noisy, multi-resolution realizations of large N-body simulations to study these phenomena, which require appropriate smoothing techniques to learn about underlying structures. We introduce a Bayesian Deep Process Convolution (DPC) model that flexibly adapts its smoothness parameter across the input space, enabling it to capture both smooth and variable structure within a single framework. The DPC model leverages common patterns across related functions to improve estimation in regions with sparse data. Compared to existing methods, the DPC model offers superior accuracy and uncertainty quantification in simulated data, and qualitatively superior performance with the cosmological data. This methodology will be useful in cosmology and other fields requiring flexible modeling of smooth nonstationary surfaces.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Developing a Foundation Model for Predicting Material Failure

Understanding material failure is critical for designing stronger and lighter structures by identifying weaknesses that could be mitigated. Existing full-physics numerical simulation techniques involve trade-offs between speed, accuracy, and the ability to handle complex features like varying boundary conditions, grid types, resolution, and physical models. We present the first foundation model specifically designed for predicting material failure, leveraging large-scale datasets and a high parameter count (up to 3B) to significantly improve the accuracy of failure predictions. In addition, a large language model provides rich context embeddings, enabling our model to make predictions across a diverse range of conditions. Unlike traditional machine learning models, which are often tailored to specific systems or limited to narrow simulation conditions, our foundation model is designed to generalize across different materials and simulators. This flexibility enables the model to handle a range of material properties and conditions, providing accurate predictions without the need for retraining or adjustments for each specific case. Our model is capable of accommodating diverse input formats, such as images and varying simulation conditions, and producing a range of outputs, from simulation results to effective properties. It supports both Cartesian and unstructured grids, with design choices that allow for seamless updates and extensions as new data and requirements emerge. Our results show that increasing the scale of the model leads to significant performance gains (loss scales as $N^{-1.6}$, compared to language models which often scale as $N^{-0.5}$).

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Fast Emulation, Modular Calibration, and Active Learning for Simulators with Functional Response

Scalable surrogate models enable efficient emulation of computer models (or simulators), particularly when dealing with large ensembles of runs. While Gaussian process (GP) models are commonly employed for emulation, they face limitations in scaling to large datasets. Furthermore, when dealing with dense functional output, such as spatial or time-series data, additional complexities arise, requiring careful handling to ensure fast emulation. This work presents a highly scalable emulator for functional data incorporating local Gaussian process regression. The emulator utilizes global GP lengthscale parameter estimates to scale the input space, leading to a substantial improvement in prediction speed. We demonstrate that our fast approximation-based emulator can serve as a viable alternative to a fully Bayesian approach for functional response, while drastically reducing computational costs. The proposed emulator is applied to quickly calibrate a multiphysics continuum hydrodynamics simulator with a large ensemble of 20000 runs. The methods presented are implemented in the R package FlaGP.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Cosmic-Enu: An emulator for the non-linear neutrino power spectrum

Cosmology is poised to measure the neutrino mass sum $M_ν$ and has identified several smaller-scale observables sensitive to neutrinos, necessitating accurate predictions of neutrino clustering over a wide range of length scales. The FlowsForTheMasses non-linear perturbation theory for the massive neutrino power spectrum, $Δ^2_ν(k)$, agrees with its companion N-body simulation at the $10\%-15\%$ level for $k \leq 1~h/$Mpc. Building upon the Mira-Titan IV emulator for the cold matter, we use FlowsForTheMasses to construct an emulator for $Δ^2_ν(k)$ covering a large range of cosmological parameters and neutrino fractions $Ω_{ν,0} h^2 \leq 0.01$, which corresponds to $M_ν\leq 0.93$~eV. Consistent with FlowsForTheMasses at the $3.5\%$ level, it returns a power spectrum in milliseconds. Ranking the neutrinos by initial momenta, we also emulate the power spectra of momentum deciles, providing information about their perturbed distribution function. Comparing a $M_ν=0.15$~eV model to a wide range of N-body simulation methods, we find agreement to $3\%$ for $k \leq 3 k_\mathrm{FS} = 0.17~h/$Mpc and to $19\%$ for $k \leq 0.4~h/$Mpc. We find that the enhancement factor, the ratio of $Δ^2_ν(k)$ to its linear-response equivalent, is most strongly correlated with $Ω_{ν,0} h^2$, and also with the clustering amplitude $σ_8$. Furthermore, non-linearities enhance the free-streaming-limit scaling $\partial \log(Δ^2_ν/ Δ^2_{\rm m}) / \partial \log(M_ν)$ beyond its linear value of 4, increasing the $M_ν$-sensitivity of the small-scale neutrino density.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Dynamic Basis Function Interpolation for Adaptive In Situ Data Integration in Ocean Modeling

We propose a new method for combining in situ buoy measurements with Earth system models (ESMs) to improve the accuracy of temperature predictions in the ocean. The technique utilizes the dynamics \textit{and} modes identified in ESMs alongside buoy measurements to improve accuracy while preserving features such as seasonality. We use this technique, which we call Dynamic Basis Function Interpolation, to correct errors in localized temperature predictions made by the Model for Prediction Across Scales Ocean component (MPAS-O) with the Global Drifter Program's in situ ocean buoy dataset.

physics.ao-ph↗