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Edgar Dobriban

Publications and source records attributed to Edgar Dobriban.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2024

One-Shot Safety Alignment for Large Language Models via Optimal Dualization

The growing safety concerns surrounding large language models raise an urgent need to align them with diverse human preferences to simultaneously enhance their helpfulness and safety. A promising approach is to enforce safety constraints through Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). For such constrained RLHF, typical Lagrangian-based primal-dual policy optimization methods are computationally expensive and often unstable. This paper presents a perspective of dualization that reduces constrained alignment to an equivalent unconstrained alignment problem. We do so by pre-optimizing a smooth and convex dual function that has a closed form. This shortcut eliminates the need for cumbersome primal-dual policy iterations, greatly reducing the computational burden and improving training stability. Our strategy leads to two practical algorithms in model-based and preference-based settings (MoCAN and PeCAN, respectively). A broad range of experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and merits of our algorithms.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2024

JailbreakBench: An Open Robustness Benchmark for Jailbreaking Large Language Models

Jailbreak attacks cause large language models (LLMs) to generate harmful, unethical, or otherwise objectionable content. Evaluating these attacks presents a number of challenges, which the current collection of benchmarks and evaluation techniques do not adequately address. First, there is no clear standard of practice regarding jailbreaking evaluation. Second, existing works compute costs and success rates in incomparable ways. And third, numerous works are not reproducible, as they withhold adversarial prompts, involve closed-source code, or rely on evolving proprietary APIs. To address these challenges, we introduce JailbreakBench, an open-sourced benchmark with the following components: (1) an evolving repository of state-of-the-art adversarial prompts, which we refer to as jailbreak artifacts; (2) a jailbreaking dataset comprising 100 behaviors -- both original and sourced from prior work (Zou et al., 2023; Mazeika et al., 2023, 2024) -- which align with OpenAI's usage policies; (3) a standardized evaluation framework at https://github.com/JailbreakBench/jailbreakbench that includes a clearly defined threat model, system prompts, chat templates, and scoring functions; and (4) a leaderboard at https://jailbreakbench.github.io/ that tracks the performance of attacks and defenses for various LLMs. We have carefully considered the potential ethical implications of releasing this benchmark, and believe that it will be a net positive for the community.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2024

Uncertainty in Language Models: Assessment through Rank-Calibration

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs. In addition to verbalized confidence elicited via prompting, many uncertainty measures ($e.g.$, semantic entropy and affinity-graph-based measures) have been proposed. However, these measures can differ greatly, and it is unclear how to compare them, partly because they take values over different ranges ($e.g.$, $[0,\infty)$ or $[0,1]$). In this work, we address this issue by developing a novel and practical framework, termed $Rank$-$Calibration$, to assess uncertainty and confidence measures for LMs. Our key tenet is that higher uncertainty (or lower confidence) should imply lower generation quality, on average. Rank-calibration quantifies deviations from this ideal relationship in a principled manner, without requiring ad hoc binary thresholding of the correctness score ($e.g.$, ROUGE or METEOR). The broad applicability and the granular interpretability of our methods are demonstrated empirically.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2024

SymmPI: Predictive Inference for Data with Group Symmetries

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed under a variety of assumptions, often -- for instance, in standard conformal prediction -- relying on the invariance of the distribution of the data under special groups of transformations such as permutation groups. Moreover, many existing methods for predictive inference aim to predict unobserved outcomes in sequences of feature-outcome observations. Meanwhile, there is interest in predictive inference under more general observation models (e.g., for partially observed features) and for data satisfying more general distributional symmetries (e.g., rotationally invariant or coordinate-independent observations in physics). Here we propose SymmPI, a methodology for predictive inference when data distributions have general group symmetries in arbitrary observation models. Our methods leverage the novel notion of distributional equivariant transformations, which process the data while preserving their distributional invariances. We show that SymmPI has valid coverage under distributional invariance and characterize its performance under distribution shift, recovering recent results as special cases. We apply SymmPI to predict unobserved values associated to vertices in a network, where the distribution is unchanged under relabelings that keep the network structure unchanged. In several simulations in a two-layer hierarchical model, and in an empirical data analysis example, SymmPI performs favorably compared to existing methods.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2024

Jailbreaking Black Box Large Language Models in Twenty Queries

There is growing interest in ensuring that large language models (LLMs) align with human values. However, the alignment of such models is vulnerable to adversarial jailbreaks, which coax LLMs into overriding their safety guardrails. The identification of these vulnerabilities is therefore instrumental in understanding inherent weaknesses and preventing future misuse. To this end, we propose Prompt Automatic Iterative Refinement (PAIR), an algorithm that generates semantic jailbreaks with only black-box access to an LLM. PAIR -- which is inspired by social engineering attacks -- uses an attacker LLM to automatically generate jailbreaks for a separate targeted LLM without human intervention. In this way, the attacker LLM iteratively queries the target LLM to update and refine a candidate jailbreak. Empirically, PAIR often requires fewer than twenty queries to produce a jailbreak, which is orders of magnitude more efficient than existing algorithms. PAIR also achieves competitive jailbreaking success rates and transferability on open and closed-source LLMs, including GPT-3.5/4, Vicuna, and Gemini.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Efficient and Multiply Robust Risk Estimation under General Forms of Dataset Shift

Statistical machine learning methods often face the challenge of limited data available from the population of interest. One remedy is to leverage data from auxiliary source populations, which share some conditional distributions or are linked in other ways with the target domain. Techniques leveraging such \emph{dataset shift} conditions are known as \emph{domain adaptation} or \emph{transfer learning}. Despite extensive literature on dataset shift, limited works address how to efficiently use the auxiliary populations to improve the accuracy of risk evaluation for a given machine learning task in the target population. In this paper, we study the general problem of efficiently estimating target population risk under various dataset shift conditions, leveraging semiparametric efficiency theory. We consider a general class of dataset shift conditions, which includes three popular conditions -- covariate, label and concept shift -- as special cases. We allow for partially non-overlapping support between the source and target populations. We develop efficient and multiply robust estimators along with a straightforward specification test of these dataset shift conditions. We also derive efficiency bounds for two other dataset shift conditions, posterior drift and location-scale shift. Simulation studies support the efficiency gains due to leveraging plausible dataset shift conditions.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2024

Doubly Robust Proximal Synthetic Controls

To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear combination is subsequently used to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the treated unit had it not been treated in the post-treatment period, and used to estimate the treatment effect. Existing synthetic control methods rely on correctly modeling certain aspects of the counterfactual outcome generating mechanism and may require near-perfect matching of the pre-treatment trajectory. Inspired by proximal causal inference, we obtain two novel nonparametric identifying formulas for the average treatment effect for the treated unit: one is based on weighting, and the other combines models for the counterfactual outcome and the weighting function. We introduce the concept of covariate shift to synthetic controls to obtain these identification results conditional on the treatment assignment. We also develop two treatment effect estimators based on these two formulas and the generalized method of moments. One new estimator is doubly robust: it is consistent and asymptotically normal if at least one of the outcome and weighting models is correctly specified. We demonstrate the performance of the methods via simulations and apply them to evaluate the effectiveness of a Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the risk of all-cause pneumonia in Brazil.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2024

Inference in Randomized Least Squares and PCA via Normality of Quadratic Forms

Randomized algorithms can be used to speed up the analysis of large datasets. In this paper, we develop a unified methodology for statistical inference via randomized sketching or projections in two of the most fundamental problems in multivariate statistical analysis: least squares and PCA. The methodology applies to fixed datasets -- i.e., is data-conditional -- and the only randomness is due to the randomized algorithm. We propose statistical inference methods for a broad range of sketching distributions, such as the subsampled randomized Hadamard transform (SRHT), Sparse Sign Embeddings (SSE) and CountSketch, sketching matrices with i.i.d. entries, and uniform subsampling. To our knowledge, no comparable methods are available for SSE and for SRHT in PCA. Our novel theoretical approach rests on showing the asymptotic normality of certain quadratic forms. As a contribution of broader interest, we show central limit theorems for quadratic forms of the SRHT, relying on a novel proof via a dyadic expansion that leverages the recursive structure of the Hadamard transform. Numerical experiments using both synthetic and empirical datasets support the efficacy of our methods, and in particular suggest that sketching methods can have better computation-estimation tradeoffs than recently proposed optimal subsampling methods.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

Minimax Optimal Fair Classification with Bounded Demographic Disparity

Mitigating the disparate impact of statistical machine learning methods is crucial for ensuring fairness. While extensive research aims to reduce disparity, the effect of using a \emph{finite dataset} -- as opposed to the entire population -- remains unclear. This paper explores the statistical foundations of fair binary classification with two protected groups, focusing on controlling demographic disparity, defined as the difference in acceptance rates between the groups. Although fairness may come at the cost of accuracy even with infinite data, we show that using a finite sample incurs additional costs due to the need to estimate group-specific acceptance thresholds. We study the minimax optimal classification error while constraining demographic disparity to a user-specified threshold. To quantify the impact of fairness constraints, we introduce a novel measure called \emph{fairness-aware excess risk} and derive a minimax lower bound on this measure that all classifiers must satisfy. Furthermore, we propose FairBayes-DDP+, a group-wise thresholding method with an offset that we show attains the minimax lower bound. Our lower bound proofs involve several innovations. Experiments support that FairBayes-DDP+ controls disparity at the user-specified level, while being faster and having a more favorable fairness-accuracy tradeoff than several baselines.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

Bayes-Optimal Classifiers under Group Fairness

Machine learning algorithms are becoming integrated into more and more high-stakes decision-making processes, such as in social welfare issues. Due to the need of mitigating the potentially disparate impacts from algorithmic predictions, many approaches have been proposed in the emerging area of fair machine learning. However, the fundamental problem of characterizing Bayes-optimal classifiers under various group fairness constraints has only been investigated in some special cases. Based on the classical Neyman-Pearson argument (Neyman and Pearson, 1933; Shao, 2003) for optimal hypothesis testing, this paper provides a unified framework for deriving Bayes-optimal classifiers under group fairness. This enables us to propose a group-based thresholding method we call FairBayes, that can directly control disparity, and achieve an essentially optimal fairness-accuracy tradeoff. These advantages are supported by thorough experiments.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

Robust Inference Under Heteroskedasticity via the Hadamard Estimator

Drawing statistical inferences from large datasets in a model-robust way is an important problem in statistics and data science. In this paper, we propose methods that are robust to large and unequal noise in different observational units (i.e., heteroskedasticity) for statistical inference in linear regression. We leverage the Hadamard estimator, which is unbiased for the variances of ordinary least-squares regression. This is in contrast to the popular White's sandwich estimator, which can be substantially biased in high dimensions. We propose to estimate the signal strength, noise level, signal-to-noise ratio, and mean squared error via the Hadamard estimator. We develop a new degrees of freedom adjustment that gives more accurate confidence intervals than variants of White's sandwich estimator. Moreover, we provide conditions ensuring the estimator is well-defined, by studying a new random matrix ensemble in which the entries of a random orthogonal projection matrix are squared. We also show approximate normality, using the second-order Poincare inequality. Our work provides improved statistical theory and methods for linear regression in high dimensions.

math.ST↗
arXiv2023

T-Cal: An optimal test for the calibration of predictive models

The prediction accuracy of machine learning methods is steadily increasing, but the calibration of their uncertainty predictions poses a significant challenge. Numerous works focus on obtaining well-calibrated predictive models, but less is known about reliably assessing model calibration. This limits our ability to know when algorithms for improving calibration have a real effect, and when their improvements are merely artifacts due to random noise in finite datasets. In this work, we consider detecting mis-calibration of predictive models using a finite validation dataset as a hypothesis testing problem. The null hypothesis is that the predictive model is calibrated, while the alternative hypothesis is that the deviation from calibration is sufficiently large. We find that detecting mis-calibration is only possible when the conditional probabilities of the classes are sufficiently smooth functions of the predictions. When the conditional class probabilities are Hölder continuous, we propose T-Cal, a minimax optimal test for calibration based on a debiased plug-in estimator of the $\ell_2$-Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We further propose Adaptive T-Cal, a version that is adaptive to unknown smoothness. We verify our theoretical findings with a broad range of experiments, including with several popular deep neural net architectures and several standard post-hoc calibration methods. T-Cal is a practical general-purpose tool, which -- combined with classical tests for discrete-valued predictors -- can be used to test the calibration of virtually any probabilistic classification method.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

PAC Prediction Sets Under Label Shift

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Learning Augmentation Distributions using Transformed Risk Minimization

We propose a new \emph{Transformed Risk Minimization} (TRM) framework as an extension of classical risk minimization. In TRM, we optimize not only over predictive models, but also over data transformations; specifically over distributions thereof. As a key application, we focus on learning augmentations; for instance appropriate rotations of images, to improve classification performance with a given class of predictors. Our TRM method (1) jointly learns transformations and models in a \emph{single training loop}, (2) works with any training algorithm applicable to standard risk minimization, and (3) handles any transforms, such as discrete and continuous classes of augmentations. To avoid overfitting when implementing empirical transformed risk minimization, we propose a novel regularizer based on PAC-Bayes theory. For learning augmentations of images, we propose a new parametrization of the space of augmentations via a stochastic composition of blocks of geometric transforms. This leads to the new \emph{Stochastic Compositional Augmentation Learning} (SCALE) algorithm. The performance of TRM with SCALE compares favorably to prior methods on CIFAR10/100. Additionally, we show empirically that SCALE can correctly learn certain symmetries in the data distribution (recovering rotations on rotated MNIST) and can also improve calibration of the learned model.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Conformal Frequency Estimation using Discrete Sketched Data with Coverage for Distinct Queries

This paper develops conformal inference methods to construct a confidence interval for the frequency of a queried object in a very large discrete data set, based on a sketch with a lower memory footprint. This approach requires no knowledge of the data distribution and can be combined with any sketching algorithm, including but not limited to the renowned count-min sketch, the count-sketch, and variations thereof. After explaining how to achieve marginal coverage for exchangeable random queries, we extend our solution to provide stronger inferences that can account for the discreteness of the data and for heterogeneous query frequencies, increasing also robustness to possible distribution shifts. These results are facilitated by a novel conformal calibration technique that guarantees valid coverage for a large fraction of distinct random queries. Finally, we show our methods have improved empirical performance compared to existing frequentist and Bayesian alternatives in simulations as well as in examples of text and SARS-CoV-2 DNA data.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2023

Prediction Sets Adaptive to Unknown Covariate Shift

Predicting sets of outcomes -- instead of unique outcomes -- is a promising solution to uncertainty quantification in statistical learning. Despite a rich literature on constructing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, adapting to unknown covariate shift -- a prevalent issue in practice -- poses a serious unsolved challenge. In this paper, we show that prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantee are uninformative and propose a novel flexible distribution-free method, PredSet-1Step, to efficiently construct prediction sets with an asymptotic coverage guarantee under unknown covariate shift. We formally show that our method is \textit{asymptotically probably approximately correct}, having well-calibrated coverage error with high confidence for large samples. We illustrate that it achieves nominal coverage in a number of experiments and a data set concerning HIV risk prediction in a South African cohort study. Our theory hinges on a new bound for the convergence rate of the coverage of Wald confidence intervals based on general asymptotically linear estimators.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2023

Sharp-SSL: Selective high-dimensional axis-aligned random projections for semi-supervised learning

We propose a new method for high-dimensional semi-supervised learning problems based on the careful aggregation of the results of a low-dimensional procedure applied to many axis-aligned random projections of the data. Our primary goal is to identify important variables for distinguishing between the classes; existing low-dimensional methods can then be applied for final class assignment. Motivated by a generalized Rayleigh quotient, we score projections according to the traces of the estimated whitened between-class covariance matrices on the projected data. This enables us to assign an importance weight to each variable for a given projection, and to select our signal variables by aggregating these weights over high-scoring projections. Our theory shows that the resulting Sharp-SSL algorithm is able to recover the signal coordinates with high probability when we aggregate over sufficiently many random projections and when the base procedure estimates the whitened between-class covariance matrix sufficiently well. The Gaussian EM algorithm is a natural choice as a base procedure, and we provide a new analysis of its performance in semi-supervised settings that controls the parameter estimation error in terms of the proportion of labeled data in the sample. Numerical results on both simulated data and a real colon tumor dataset support the excellent empirical performance of the method.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2023

Demystifying Disagreement-on-the-Line in High Dimensions

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

stat.ML↗