arXiv subjects

Edward A. K. Cohen

Publications and source records attributed to Edward A. K. Cohen.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Poisson Autoregression on a Large Network with a Stochastic Block Model Structure

We consider multivariate Poisson autoregressive processes evolving on random networks generated by a Stochastic Block Model. This framework extends existing network Poisson autoregressions by incorporating latent community structure and allowing for non-Markovian dependence, both excitatory and inhibitory. We establish a mean-field approximation and prove that the finite system converges to its limit at the optimal rate $N^{-1/2}$ in the quenched setting with overwhelming probability, both on average and in uniform norm. Our analysis yields quantitative error bounds that are explicit in the time horizon and, under suitable stability conditions, remain polynomial or uniform in time, thereby avoiding the exponential growth typically associated with Grönwall-type arguments. As a consequence, the mean-field approximation is shown to hold uniformly over any time horizon. We further demonstrate how the approximation can be exploited to reduce the computational complexity of parametric inference from $\mathcal{O}(N^2T^2)$ to $\mathcal{O}(NT^2)$. The results provide a theoretical foundation for the analysis and inference of count-valued processes on large random networks with community structure.

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arXiv2026

CHASM: Online Changepoint Detection in Temporal and Cross-Variable Dependence

Changepoint detection identifies times when the generative process of a time series changes, with applications in healthcare, cybersecurity, and finance. In multivariate settings, changes in cross-variable and temporal dependence are particularly challenging to detect, as they are often less pronounced than shifts in marginal statistics such as the mean or variance. Existing methods detect changes using reconstruction error, which provides only an indirect measure of dynamical change, or rely on scalar functionals that may be too coarse to capture global structure. We introduce CHASM, an online nonparametric method that monitors the truncated eigenvalue sequence of the recursively estimated dynamic mode decomposition operator. Designing such an approach raises two challenges: the permutation invariance of eigendecompositions, resolved via optimal linear assignment, and the lack of online changepoint methods for multivariate complex-valued time series, addressed through a novel augmented monitoring scheme. We study the theoretical properties of the dynamics estimator under the canonical vector autoregressive model, which directly motivates our algorithmic design. The proposed method achieves competitive or superior performance to modern competitors across synthetic and real-world data sets, including challenging settings in video and text data. It is unsupervised, depends on a small number of interpretable parameters, and requires no distributional assumptions beyond finite moments, making it readily deployable across scientific domains.

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arXiv2026

Simultaneous global and local clustering in multiplex networks with covariate information

Understanding both global and layer-specific group structures is useful for uncovering complex patterns in networks with multiple interaction types. In this work, we introduce a new model, the hierarchical multiplex stochastic blockmodel (HMPSBM), that simultaneously detects communities within individual layers of a multiplex network while inferring a global node clustering across the layers. A stochastic blockmodel is assumed in each layer, with probabilities of layer-level group memberships determined by a node's global group assignment. Our model uses a Bayesian framework, employing a probit stick-breaking process to construct node-specific mixing proportions over a set of shared Griffiths-Engen-McCloseky (GEM) distributions. These proportions determine layer-level community assignment, allowing for an unknown and varying number of groups across layers, while incorporating nodal covariate information to inform the global clustering. We propose a scalable variational inference procedure with parallelisable updates for application to large networks. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate our model's ability to accurately recover both global and layer-level clusters in complicated settings, and applications to real data showcase the model's effectiveness in uncovering interesting latent network structure.

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arXiv2026

Spectral embedding of inhomogeneous Poisson processes on multiplex networks

In many real-world networks, data on the edges evolve in continuous time, naturally motivating representations based on point processes. Heterogeneity in edge types further gives rise to multiplex network point processes. In this work, we propose a model for multiplex network data observed in continuous-time. We establish two-to-infinity norm consistency and asymptotic normality for spectral-embedding-based estimation of the model parameters as both network size and time resolution increase. Drawing inspiration from random dot product graph models, each edge intensity is expressed as the inner product of two low-dimensional latent positions: one dynamic and layer-agnostic, the other static and layer-dependent. These latent positions constitute the primary objects of inference, which is conducted via spectral embedding methods. Our theoretical results are established under a histogram estimator of the network intensities and provide justification for applying a doubly unfolded adjacency spectral embedding method for estimation. Simulations and real-data analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and inference procedure.

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arXiv2025

Online Spectral Density Estimation

This paper develops the first online algorithms for estimating the spectral density function -- a fundamental object of interest in time series analysis -- that satisfies the three core requirements of streaming inference: fixed memory, fixed computational complexity, and temporal adaptivity. Our method builds on the concept of forgetting factors, allowing the estimator to adapt to gradual or abrupt changes in the data-generating process without prior knowledge of its dynamics. We introduce a novel online forgetting-factor periodogram and show that, under stationarity, it asymptotically recovers the properties of its offline counterpart. Leveraging this, we construct an online Whittle estimator, and further develop an adaptive online spectral estimator that dynamically tunes its forgetting factor using the Whittle likelihood as a loss. Through extensive simulation studies and an application to ocean drifter velocity data, we demonstrate the method's ability to track time-varying spectral properties in real-time with strong empirical performance.

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arXiv2025

Online Bayesian changepoint detection for network Poisson processes with community structure

Network point processes often exhibit latent structure that govern the behaviour of the sub-processes. It is not always reasonable to assume that this latent structure is static, and detecting when and how this driving structure changes is often of interest. In this paper, we introduce a novel online methodology for detecting changes within the latent structure of a network point process. We focus on block-homogeneous Poisson processes, where latent node memberships determine the rates of the edge processes. We propose a scalable variational procedure which can be applied on large networks in an online fashion via a Bayesian forgetting factor applied to sequential variational approximations to the posterior distribution. The proposed framework is tested on simulated and real-world data, and it rapidly and accurately detects changes to the latent edge process rates, and to the latent node group memberships, both in an online manner. In particular, in an application on the Santander Cycles bike-sharing network in central London, we detect changes within the network related to holiday periods and lockdown restrictions between 2019 and 2020.

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arXiv2025

The Markov approximation of the periodic multivariate Poisson autoregression

This paper introduces a periodic multivariate Poisson autoregression with potentially infinite memory, with a special focus on the network setting. Using contraction techniques, we study the stability of such a process and provide upper bounds on how fast it reaches the periodically stationary regime. We then propose a computationally efficient Markov approximation using the properties of the exponential function and a density result. Furthermore, we prove the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for the Markov approximation and empirically test its robustness in the case of misspecification. Our model is applied to the prediction of weekly Rotavirus cases in Berlin, demonstrating superior performance compared to the existing PNAR model.

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arXiv2024

Functional summary statistics and testing for independence in marked point processes on the surface of three dimensional convex shapes

The fundamental functional summary statistics used for studying spatial point patterns are developed for marked homogeneous and inhomogeneous point processes on the surface of a sphere. These are extended to point processes on the surface of three dimensional convex shapes given the bijective mapping from the shape to the sphere is known. These functional summary statistics are used to test for independence between the marginals of multi-type spatial point processes with methods for sampling the null distribution proposed and discussed. This is illustrated on both simulated data and the RNGC galaxy point pattern, revealing attractive dependencies between different galaxy types.

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arXiv2024

Online Changepoint Detection via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Detecting changes in data streams is a vital task in many applications. There is increasing interest in changepoint detection in the online setting, to enable real-time monitoring and support prompt responses and informed decision-making. Many approaches assume stationary sequences before encountering an abrupt change in the mean or variance. Notably less attention has focused on the challenging case where the monitored sequences exhibit trend, periodicity and seasonality. Dynamic mode decomposition is a data-driven dimensionality reduction technique that extracts the essential components of a dynamical system. We propose a changepoint detection method that leverages this technique to sequentially model the dynamics of a moving window of data and produce a low-rank reconstruction. A change is identified when there is a significant difference between this reconstruction and the observed data, and we provide theoretical justification for this approach. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our approach has superior detection performance compared to other methods for detecting small changes in mean, variance, periodicity, and second-order structure, among others, in data that exhibits seasonality. Results on real-world datasets also show excellent performance compared to contemporary approaches.

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arXiv2021

A Parameter Estimation Method for Multivariate Aggregated Hawkes Processes

It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from limitations on recording capabilities and the expense of storing high volumes of precise data. In order to gain a better understanding of the relationships between processes, we consider modelling the aggregated event data using multivariate Hawkes processes, which offer a description of mutually-exciting behaviour and have found wide applications in areas including seismology and finance. Here we generalise existing methodology on parameter estimation of univariate aggregated Hawkes processes to the multivariate case using a Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MC-EM) algorithm and through a simulation study illustrate that alternative approaches to this problem can be severely biased, with the multivariate MC-EM method outperforming them in terms of MSE in all considered cases.

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arXiv2021

Improving axial resolution in SIM using deep learning

Structured Illumination Microscopy is a widespread methodology to image live and fixed biological structures smaller than the diffraction limits of conventional optical microscopy. Using recent advances in image up-scaling through deep learning models, we demonstrate a method to reconstruct 3D SIM image stacks with twice the axial resolution attainable through conventional SIM reconstructions. We further evaluate our method for robustness to noise & generalisability to varying observed specimens, and discuss potential adaptions of the method to further improvements in resolution.

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arXiv2020

Wavelet Spectra for Multivariate Point Processes

Wavelets provide the flexibility to analyse stochastic processes at different scales. Here, we apply them to multivariate point processes as a means of detecting and analysing unknown non-stationarity, both within and across data streams. To provide statistical tractability, a temporally smoothed wavelet periodogram is developed and shown to be equivalent to a multi-wavelet periodogram. Under a stationary assumption, the distribution of the temporally smoothed wavelet periodogram is demonstrated to be asymptotically Wishart, with the centrality matrix and degrees of freedom readily computable from the multi-wavelet formulation. Distributional results extend to wavelet coherence; a time-scale measure of inter-process correlation. This statistical framework is used to construct a test for stationarity in multivariate point-processes. The methodology is applied to neural spike train data, where it is shown to detect and characterise time-varying dependency patterns.

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arXiv2020

Testing for complete spatial randomness on three dimensional bounded convex shapes

There is currently a gap in theory for point patterns that lie on the surface of objects, with researchers focusing on patterns that lie in a Euclidean space, typically planar and spatial data. Methodology for planar and spatial data thus relies on Euclidean geometry and is therefore inappropriate for analysis of point patterns observed in non-Euclidean spaces. Recently, there has been extensions to the analysis of point patterns on a sphere, however, many other shapes are left unexplored. This is in part due to the challenge of defining the notion of stationarity for a point process existing on such a space due to the lack of rotational and translational isometries. Here, we construct functional summary statistics for Poisson processes defined on convex shapes in three dimensions. Using the Mapping Theorem, a Poisson process can be transformed from any convex shape to a Poisson process on the unit sphere which has rotational symmetries that allow for functional summary statistics to be constructed. We present the first and second order properties of such summary statistics and demonstrate how they can be used to test whether an observed pattern exhibits complete spatial randomness or spatial preference on the original convex space. A study of the Type I and II errors of our test statistics are explored through simulations on ellipsoids of varying dimensions.

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arXiv2018

Multiresolution analysis of point processes and statistical thresholding for wavelet-based intensity estimation

We take a wavelet based approach to the analysis of point processes and the estimation of the first order intensity under a continuous time setting. A multiresolution analysis of a point process is formulated which motivates the definition of homogeneity at different scales of resolution, termed $J$-th level homogeneity. Further to this, the activity in a point processes' first order behavior at different scales of resolution is also defined and termed $L$-th level innovation. Likelihood ratio tests for both these properties are proposed with asymptotic distributions provided, even when only a single realization of the point process is observed. The test for $L$-th level innovation forms the basis for a collection of statistical strategies for thresholding coefficients in a wavelet based estimator of the intensity function. These thresholding strategies are shown to outperform the existing local hard thresholding strategy on a range of simulation scenarios.

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arXiv2015

Correcting the estimator for the mean vectors in a multivariate errors-in-variables regression model

The multivariate errors-in-variables regression model is applicable when both dependent and independent variables in a multivariate regression are subject to measurement errors. In such a scenario it is long established that the traditional least squares approach to estimating the model parameters is biased and inconsistent. The generalized least squares, ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimators (under the assumption of Gaussian errors) were derived in the seminal paper of Gleser (1981). However, the ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimators for the mean vectors were incorrectly derived. In this short paper we amend this error, presenting the correct estimators of the mean vectors.

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