arXiv subjects

Edward J Oughton

Publications and source records attributed to Edward J Oughton.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Brace for Impact: A Review of Mitigation Decisions of Critical Infrastructure Operators During the 2024 Solar Maximum

The Gannon Storm in May 2024 was the largest space weather event experienced in 20 years, generating auroras latitudes as low as 35°. Such activity can pose significant operational challenges for critical infrastructure operators, particularly those managing electricity transmission networks, satellite constellations, and aviation systems. Substantial progress has been made in understanding space weather and the potential exposure of infrastructure assets to severe events. We have seen few evaluations of the types of current mitigation strategies in use to reduce our shared vulnerability to this activity, motivating this study. Firstly, we fill an important literature gap by undertaking a systematic review of the range of space weather mitigation strategies for these three critical infrastructure sectors. Secondly, we contacted 303 critical infrastructure operators (50 power, 227 satellite, 26 aviation) for participation in an anonymous online survey or interview receiving 55 unique responses (18% response rate). To capture narratives of mitigation actions taken and impacts experienced over the solar maximum, qualitative interviews were then conducted with 33 operators. The results identified 91 potential mitigation actions within the sectors and found that 149 mitigation actions were enacted due to space weather forecasts and experienced impacts. This is one of the first exhaustive studies of space weather mitigation activities, and moves beyond the traditional focus on purely impacts.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Secure Texting and Anti-Jamming Technologies in Non-Cooperative Networks

Operating securely over 5G (and legacy) infrastructure is a challenge. In non-cooperative networks, malicious actors may try to decipher, block encrypted messages, or specifically jam wireless radio systems. Such activities can disrupt operations, from causing minor inconvenience, through to fully paralyzing the functionality of critical infrastructure. While technological mitigation measures do exist, there are very few methods capable of assessing the socio-economic impacts from different mitigation strategies. This leads to a lack of robust evidence to inform cost-benefit analysis, and thus support decision makers in industry and government. Consequently, this paper presents two open-source simulation models for assessing the socio-economic impacts of operating in untrusted non-cooperative networks. The first focuses on using multiple non-cooperative networks to transmit a message. The second model simulates a case where a message is converted into alternative plain language to avoid detection, separated into different portions and then transmitted over multiple non-cooperative networks. A probabilistic simulation of the two models is performed for a 15 km by 15 km spatial grid with 5 untrusted non-cooperative networks and intercepting agents. The results are used to estimate economic losses for private, commercial, government and military sectors. The highest probabilistic total losses for military applications include US$300, US$150, and US$75, incurred for a 1, 3 and 5 site multi-transmission approach, respectively, for non-cooperative networks when considering 1,000 texts being sent. These results form a framework for deterministic socio-economic impact analysis of using non-cooperative networks and secure texting as protection against radio network attacks. The simulation data and the open-source codebase is provided for reproducibility.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2021

Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable

The United Nations Broadband Commission has committed the international community to accelerate universal broadband. However, the cost of meeting this objective, and the feasibility of doing so on a commercially viable basis, are not well understood. Using scenario analysis, this paper compares the global cost-effectiveness of different infrastructure strategies for the developing world to achieve universal 4G or 5G mobile broadband. Utilizing remote sensing and demand forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for eight representative low and middle-income countries (Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Pakistan, Albania, Peru and Mexico), the results from which form the basis for aggregation to the global level. The cost of meeting a minimum 10 Mbps per user is estimated at USD 1.7 trillion using 5G Non-Standalone, approximately 0.6% of annual GDP for the developing world over the next decade. However, by creating a favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring down these costs by as much as three quarters, to USD 0.5 trillion (approximately 0.2% of annual GDP), and avoid the need for public subsidy. Providing governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes conducive to lowering costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Revisiting Wireless Internet Connectivity: 5G vs Wi-Fi 6

In recent years, significant attention has been directed toward the fifth generation of wireless broadband connectivity known as `5G`, currently being deployed by Mobile Network Operators. Surprisingly, there has been considerably less attention paid to `Wi-Fi 6`, the new IEEE 802.1ax standard in the family of Wireless Local Area Network technologies with features targeting private, edge-networks. This paper revisits the suitability of cellular and Wi-Fi in delivering high-speed wireless Internet connectivity. Both technologies aspire to deliver significantly enhanced performance, enabling each to deliver much faster wireless broadband connectivity, and provide further support for the Internet of Things and Machine-to-Machine communications, positioning the two technologies as technical substitutes in many usage scenarios. We conclude that both are likely to play important roles in the future, and simultaneously serve as competitors and complements. We anticipate that 5G will remain the preferred technology for wide-area coverage, while Wi-Fi 6 will remain the preferred technology for indoor use, thanks to its much lower deployment costs. However, the traditional boundaries that differentiated earlier generations of cellular and Wi-Fi are blurring. Proponents of one technology may argue for the benefits of their chosen technology displacing the other, requesting regulatory policies that would serve to tilt the marketplace in their favour. We believe such efforts need to be resisted, and that both technologies have important roles to play in the marketplace, based on the needs of heterogeneous use cases. Both technologies should contribute to achieving the goal of providing affordable, reliable, and ubiquitously available high-capacity wireless broadband connectivity.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2021

Wi-Fi Wardriving Studies Must Account for Important Statistical Issues

Knowledge of Wi-Fi networks helps to guide future engineering and spectrum policy decisions. However, due to its unlicensed nature, the deployment of Wi-Fi Access Points is undocumented meaning researchers are left making educated guesses as to the prevalence of these assets through remotely collected or passively sensed measurements. One commonly used method is referred to as `wardriving` essentially where a vehicle is used to collect geospatial statistical data on wireless networks to inform mobile computing and networking security research. Surprisingly, there has been very little examination of the statistical issues with wardriving data, despite the vast number of analyses being published in the literature using this approach. In this paper, a sample of publicly collected wardriving data is compared to a predictive model for Wi-Fi Access Points. The results demonstrate several statistical issues which future wardriving studies must account for, including selection bias, sample representativeness and the modifiable areal unit problem.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2020

Evaluating the impact of next generation broadband on local business creation

Basic broadband connectivity is regarded as generally having a positive macroeconomic effect. However, over the past decade there has been an emerging school of thought suggesting the impacts of upgrading to higher speed broadband have been overstated, potentially leading to the inefficient allocation of taxpayer-funded subsidies. In this analysis we model the impacts of Next Generation Access on new business creation using high-resolution panel data. After controlling for a range of factors, the results provide evidence of a small but significant negative impact of high-speed broadband on new business creation over the study period which we suggest could be due to two factors. Firstly, moving from basic to high-speed broadband provides few benefits to enable new businesses being formed. Secondly, strong price competition and market consolidation from online service providers (e.g. Amazon etc.) may be deterring new business start-ups. This analysis provides another piece of evidence to suggest that the economic impact of broadband is more nuanced than the debate has traditionally suggested. Our conjecture is that future policy decisions need to be more realistic about the potential economic impacts of broadband, including those effects that could be negative on the stock of local businesses and therefore the local tax base.

econ.GN↗