arXiv subjects

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

Publications and source records attributed to Efi Foufoula-Georgiou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

PyroStack: A Multi-Band Spatio-Temporal Sub-Daily Dataset for Wildfires in the United States

Wildfires are an increasing hazard to ecosystems, air quality, and human systems, creating a growing need for datasets that support systematic development and evaluation of models for predicting fire spread across diverse landscapes. Effective prediction requires integrating meteorological conditions, fuels, vegetation, and topography at spatial and temporal resolutions suitable for both physical simulation and data-driven approaches. However, existing datasets often lack the resolution and coverage needed to capture these interacting controls. The PyroStack dataset addresses this gap by providing a harmonized, event-based collection of wildfire and environmental data across the contiguous United States and Alaska. It integrates satellite-derived fire observations with atmospheric reanalysis, vegetation, fuel characteristics, and topographic information into a unified framework spanning 6994 wildfires that occurred between 2012 and 2024 across a wide range of ecosystems and climate conditions. PyroStack offers spatial resolutions ranging from 30 m to 9 km and hourly temporal resolution, along with fire progression data at 12-hour intervals to support model initialization and evaluation. By combining broad spatial coverage with fine spatial and temporal detail, the dataset enables systematic analysis of wildfire dynamics and supports both physics-based and machine learning approaches, providing a foundation for benchmarking and improving fire spread models, with future extensions aimed at incorporating additional regions and fire suppression data streams to further advance wildfire prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Diffusion-Based Rollouts as a Stabilization Mechanism for Long-Horizon Environmental Forecasting

Extending forecast lead times while maintaining predictive skill remains a major challenge in environmental forecasting. We investigate diffusion-based rollouts as a stabilization mechanism for recursive forecasting using low-dimensional water-level time series and high-dimensional precipitation fields. Across both modalities, diffusion suppresses recursive error growth, with the largest stabilization occurring where deterministic rollouts are most unstable. However, stabilization does not guarantee forecast fidelity. In the water-level experiments, forecasts progressively lose event-level fidelity as the rollout loses access to external predictive information, and trajectory-level comparisons show that diffusion can remain numerically stable while contracting toward central values and exhibiting reduced variability. In the precipitation experiments, which retain conditioning from numerical weather prediction throughout the rollout, diffusion better preserves spatial organization and event-detection skill. Together, these contrasting experiments indicate that diffusion can control recursive error amplification, while its practical benefit also depends on the predictive information available to constrain future evolution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Video Diffusion for Satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) Field Generation

High spatiotemporal fidelity precipitation products that accurately capture storm spatial organization, propagation, and lifecycle evolution, are essential for advancing hydrometeorological research and operations at regional and global scales. Satellite products offer the only near-global precipitation observations, but they still fall short of reproducing the spatiotemporal structure of ground-based references, due largely to dynamic distortions from the inhomogeneity, intermittency, and indirectness of satellite retrievals. Here we propose a video-diffusion framework for satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) field generation beyond the space-time coverage of ground-radar, using radar-rich CONUS as a testbed. The framework performs explicit spatiotemporal modeling with IMERG as the primary source and leverages four-dimensional storm-environment information from about 40 ERA5/ERA5-Land atmospheric/land fields to compensate for the temporal information deficit inherent to satellite retrievals. We introduce an extensive metric suite to assess HiDFiP dynamical fidelity in temporal-reconstruction and spatial-transfer settings against MRMS ground-radar precipitation over CONUS. Relative to IMERG and image-wise diffusion baselines, HiDFiP accurately reproduces the storm space-time spectral characteristics; storm timing, location, and directional propagation; precipitation-event episodicity and temporal structure; precipitation-system morphology and spatial organization; and storm-track kinematics and lifecycle evolution. Transferability experiments indicate that HiDFiP generalizes reasonably well to an unseen region. This work advances a video-diffusion paradigm for satellite-based high-spatiotemporal-fidelity precipitation generation and provides an algorithmic and diagnostic foundation for long-term global radar-grade precipitation records.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

A Diffusion-Based Framework for High-Resolution Precipitation Forecasting over CONUS

Accurate precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management, especially for anticipating extreme rainfall that can lead to flash flooding and infrastructure damage. This study introduces a diffusion-based deep learning (DL) framework that systematically compares three residual prediction strategies differing only in their input sources: (1) a fully data-driven model using only past observations from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, (2) a corrective model using only forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction system, and (3) a hybrid model integrating both MRMS and selected HRRR forecast variables. By evaluating these approaches under a unified setup, we provide a clearer understanding of how each data source contributes to predictive skill over the Continental United States (CONUS). Forecasts are produced at 1-km spatial resolution, beginning with direct 1-hour predictions and extending to 12 hours using autoregressive rollouts. Performance is evaluated using both CONUS-wide and region-specific metrics that assess overall performance and skill at extreme rainfall thresholds. Across all lead times, our DL framework consistently outperforms the HRRR baseline in pixel-wise and spatiostatistical metrics. The hybrid model performs best at the shortest lead time, while the HRRR-corrective model outperforms others at longer lead times, maintaining high skill through 12 hours. To assess reliability, we incorporate calibrated uncertainty quantification tailored to the residual learning setup. These gains, particularly at longer lead times, are critical for emergency preparedness, where modest increases in forecast horizon can improve decision-making. This work advances DL-based precipitation forecasting by enhancing predictive skill, reliability, and applicability across regions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Fusion of multi-source precipitation records via coordinate-based generative model

Precipitation remains one of the most challenging climate variables to observe and predict accurately. Existing datasets face intricate trade-offs: gauge observations are relatively trustworthy but sparse, satellites provide global coverage with retrieval uncertainties, and numerical models offer physical consistency but are biased and computationally intensive. Here we introduce PRIMER (Precipitation Record Infinite MERging), a deep generative framework that fuses these complementary sources to produce accurate, high-resolution, full-coverage precipitation estimates. PRIMER employs a coordinate-based diffusion model that learns from arbitrary spatial locations and associated precipitation values, enabling seamless integration of gridded data and irregular gauge observations. Through two-stage training--first learning large-scale patterns, then refining with accurate gauge measurements--PRIMER captures both large-scale climatology and local precision. Once trained, it can downscale forecasts, interpolate sparse observations, and correct systematic biases within a principled Bayesian framework. Using gauge observations as ground truth, PRIMER effectively corrects biases in existing datasets, yielding statistically significant error reductions at most stations and furthermore enhancing the spatial coherence of precipitation fields. Crucially, it generalizes without retraining, correcting biases in operational forecasts it has never seen. This demonstrates how generative AI can transform Earth system science by combining imperfect data, providing a scalable solution for global precipitation monitoring and prediction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Functional data decomposition reveals unexpectedly strong soil moisture-precipitation coupling over the Great Plains

Soil moisture-precipitation coupling (SMPC) plays a critical role in Earth's water and energy cycles but remains difficult to quantify due to synoptic-scale variability and the complex interplay of land-atmosphere processes. Here, we apply high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) to functionally decompose the structural, correlative, and cooperative contributions of key land-atmosphere variables to precipitation. Benchmark tests confirm that HDMR overcomes limitations of commonly used correlation and regression approaches in isolating direct versus indirect effects. For example, analysis of gross primary productivity using a light-use-efficiency model shows that linear regression underestimates the temperature effect, while HDMR captures it accurately. Applying HDMR to CONUS404 reanalysis data reveals that morning soil moisture explains up to 40 percent of the variance in summertime afternoon precipitation over the Great Plains, more than double prior estimates. On days with afternoon rainfall (12-hour totals of 4.7-8.2 mm), first-order SM effects can boost precipitation by up to 8 mm under wet conditions, with an additional 3 mm from second-order interactions involving temperature and moisture. By capturing real-world co-variability and higher-order effects, HDMR provides a physically grounded, data-driven framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling. These results underscore the need for more nuanced, interaction-aware data analysis methods in climate modeling and prediction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

A Generative Diffusion Model for Probabilistic Ensembles of Precipitation Maps Conditioned on Multisensor Satellite Observations

A generative diffusion model is used to produce probabilistic ensembles of precipitation intensity maps at the 1-hour 5-km resolution. The generation is conditioned on infrared and microwave radiometric measurements from the GOES and DMSP satellites and is trained with merged ground radar and gauge data over southeastern United States. The generated precipitation maps reproduce the spatial autocovariance and other multiscale statistical properties of the gauge-radar reference fields on average. Conditioning the generation on the satellite measurements allows us to constrain the magnitude and location of each generated precipitation feature. The mean of the 128- member ensemble shows high spatial coherence with the reference fields with 0.82 linear correlation between the two. On average, the coherence between any two ensemble members is approximately the same as the coherence between any ensemble member and the ground reference, attesting that the ensemble dispersion is a proper measure of the estimation uncertainty. From the generated ensembles we can easily derive the probability of the precipitation intensity exceeding any given intensity threshold, at the 5-km resolution of the generation or at any desired aggregated resolution.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

DomiRank Centrality: revealing structural fragility of complex networks via node dominance

Determining the key elements of interconnected infrastructure and complex systems is paramount to ensure system functionality and integrity. This work quantifies the dominance of the networks' nodes in their respective neighborhoods, introducing a novel centrality metric, DomiRank, that integrates local and global topological information via a tunable parameter. We present an analytical formula and an efficient parallelizable algorithm for DomiRank centrality, making it applicable to massive networks. From the networks' structure and function perspective, nodes with high values of DomiRank highlight fragile neighborhoods whose integrity and functionality are highly dependent on those dominant nodes. Underscoring this relation between dominance and fragility, we show that DomiRank systematically outperforms other centrality metrics in generating targeted attacks that effectively compromise network structure and disrupt its functionality for synthetic and real-world topologies. Moreover, we show that DomiRank-based attacks inflict more enduring damage in the network, hindering its ability to rebound and, thus, impairing system resilience. DomiRank centrality capitalizes on the competition mechanism embedded in its definition to expose the fragility of networks, paving the way to design strategies to mitigate vulnerability and enhance the resilience of critical infrastructures.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Critical Tokunaga model for river networks

The hierarchical organization and self-similarity in river basins have been topics of extensive research in hydrology and geomorphology starting with the pioneering work of Horton in 1945. Despite significant theoretical and applied advances however, the mathematical origin of and relation among Horton laws for different stream attributes remain unsettled. Here we capitalize on a recently developed theory of random self-similar trees to introduce a one-parametric family of self-similar critical Tokunaga trees that elucidates the origin of Horton laws, Hack's laws, basin fractal dimension, power-law distributions of link attributes, and power-law relations between distinct attributes. The proposed family includes the celebrated Shreve's random topology model and extends to trees that approximate the observed river networks with realistic exponents. The results offer tools to increase our understanding of landscape organization under different hydroclimatic forcings, and to extend scaling relationships useful for hydrologic prediction to resolutions higher that those observed.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2020

Zonally opposing shifts of the intertropical convergence zone in response to climate change

Future changes in the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) due to climate change are of high interest since they could substantially alter precipitation patterns in the tropics and subtropics. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ during the 21st century in response to climate warming, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on the zonal-mean ITCZ shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP6) to investigate future changes in ITCZ location as a function of longitude and season, in response to climate warming. We document a robust zonally opposing response of the ITCZ, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean, and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean by 2100, for the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Using a two-dimensional energetics framework, we find that the revealed ITCZ response is consistent with future changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport over the tropics, and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator (EFE). The changes in the EFE appear to be the result of zonally opposing imbalances in the hemispheric atmospheric heating over the two sectors, consisting of increases in atmospheric heating over Eurasia and cooling over the Southern Ocean, which contrast with atmospheric cooling over the North Atlantic Ocean due to a model-projected weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Rotated spectral principal component analysis (rsPCA) for identifying dynamical modes of variability in climate systems

Spectral PCA (sPCA), in contrast to classical PCA, offers the advantage of identifying organized spatio-temporal patterns within specific frequency bands and extracting dynamical modes. However, the unavoidable tradeoff between frequency resolution and robustness of the PCs leads to high sensitivity to noise and overfitting, which limits the interpretation of the sPCA results. We propose herein a simple non-parametric implementation of the sPCA using the continuous analytic Morlet wavelet as a robust estimator of the cross-spectral matrices with good frequency resolution. To improve the interpretability of the results when several modes of similar amplitude exist within the same frequency band, we propose a rotation of eigenvectors that optimizes the spatial smoothness in the phase domain. The developed method, called rotated spectral PCA (rsPCA), is tested on synthetic data simulating propagating waves and shows impressive performance even with high levels of noise in the data. Applied to historical sea surface temperature (SST) time series over the Pacific Ocean, the method accurately captures the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at low frequency (2 to 7 years periodicity). At high frequencies (sub-annual periodicity), at which several extratropical patterns of similar amplitude are identified, the rsPCA successfully unmixes the underlying modes, revealing spatially coherent patterns with robust propagation dynamics. Identification of higher frequency space-time climate modes holds promise for seasonal to subseasonal prediction and for diagnostic analysis of climate models.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

From Turbulence to Landscapes: Universality of Logarithmic Mean Profiles in Bounded Complex Systems

The logarithmic mean-velocity profile is a key experimental and theoretical result in wall-bounded turbulence. Similarly, here we show that the topographic surface emerging between parallel zero-elevation boundaries presents an intermediate region with a logarithmic mean-elevation profile. We use model simulations, which account for growth, erosion, and smoothing processes and give rise to complex topography with channel branching and fractal river networks, as well as data from a physical landscape-evolution experiment. Dimensional and self-similarity arguments are used to corroborate this finding. Our results suggest a universality of the logarithmic scaling in bounded complex systems out of equilibrium, of which landscape topography and turbulence are quintessential examples.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2019

A Nested K-Nearest Prognostic Approach for Microwave Precipitation Phase Detection over Snow Cover

Monitoring changes of precipitation phase from space is important for understanding the mass balance of Earth's cryosphere in a changing climate. This paper examines a Bayesian nearest neighbor approach for prognostic detection of precipitation and its phase using passive microwave observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite. The method uses the weighted Euclidean distance metric to search through an a priori database populated with coincident GPM radiometer and radar observations as well as ancillary snow-cover data. The algorithm performance is evaluated using data from GPM official precipitation products, ground-based radars, and high-fidelity simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Using the presented approach, we demonstrate that the hit probability of terrestrial precipitation detection can reach to 0.80, while the probability of false alarm remains below 0.11. The algorithm demonstrates higher skill in detecting snowfall than rainfall, on average by 10 percent. In particular, the probability of precipitation detection and its solid phase increases by 11 and 8 percent, over dry snow cover, when compared to other surface types. The main reason is found to be related to the ability of the algorithm in capturing the signal of increased liquid water content in snowy clouds over radiometrically cold snow-covered surfaces

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

A multi-sensor data-driven methodology for all-sky passive microwave inundation retrieval

We present a multi-sensor Bayesian passive microwave retrieval algorithm for flood inundation mapping at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The algorithm takes advantage of observations from multiple sensors in optical, short-infrared, and microwave bands, thereby allowing for detection and mapping of the sub-pixel fraction of inundated areas under almost all-sky conditions. The method relies on a nearest-neighbor search and a modern sparsity-promoting inversion method that make use of an a priori dataset in the form of two joint dictionaries. These dictionaries contain almost overlapping observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 satellite and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Aqua and Terra satellites. Evaluation of the retrieval algorithm over the Mekong Delta shows that it is capable of capturing to a good degree the inundation diurnal variability due to localized convective precipitation. At longer timescales, the results demonstrate consistency with the ground-based water level observations, denoting that the method is properly capturing inundation seasonal patterns in response to regional monsoonal rain. The calculated Euclidean distance, rank-correlation, and also copula quantile analysis demonstrate a good agreement between the outputs of the algorithm and the observed water levels at monthly and daily timescales. The current inundation products are at a resolution of 12.5 km and taken twice per day, but a higher resolution (order of 5 km and every 3 h) can be achieved using the same algorithm with the dictionary populated by the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) products.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2017

Diffusion Dynamics and Optimal Coupling in Directed Multiplex Networks

We study the dynamics of diffusion processes acting on directed multiplex networks, i.e., coupled multilayer networks where at least one layer consists of a directed graph. We reveal that directed multiplex networks may exhibit a faster diffusion at an intermediate degree of coupling than when the two layers are fully coupled. We use three simple multiplex examples and a real-world topology to illustrate the characteristics of the directed dynamics that give rise to a regime in which an optimal coupling exists. Given the ubiquity of both directed and multilayer networks in nature, our results could have important implications for the dynamics of multilevel complex systems towards optimality.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

On evaluation of ShARP passive rainfall retrievals over snow-covered land surfaces and coastal zones

For precipitation retrievals over land, using satellite measurements in microwave bands, it is important to properly discriminate the weak rainfall signals from strong and highly variable background surface emission. Traditionally, land rainfall retrieval methods often rely on a weak signal of rainfall scattering on high-frequency channels (85 GHz) and make use of empirical thresholding and regression-based techniques. Due to the increased ground surface signal interference, precipitation retrieval over radiometrically complex land surfaces, especially over snow-covered lands, deserts and coastal areas, is of particular challenge for this class of retrieval techniques. This paper evaluates the results by the recently proposed Shrunken locally linear embedding Algorithm for Retrieval of Precipitation (ShARP), over a radiometrically complex terrain and coastal areas using the data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. To this end, the ShARP retrieval experiments are performed over a region in Southeast Asia, partly covering the Tibetan Highlands, Himalayas, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins and its delta. We elucidate promising results by ShARP over snow covered land surfaces and at the vicinity of coastlines, in comparison with the land rainfall retrievals of the standard TRMM-2A12 product. Specifically, using the TRMM-2A25 radar product as a reference, we provide evidence that the ShARP algorithm can significantly reduce the rainfall over estimation due to the background snow contamination and markedly improve detection and retrieval of rainfall at the vicinity of coastlines. During the calendar year 2013, we demonstrate that over the study domain the root mean squared difference can be reduced up to 38% annually, while the reduction can reach up to 70% during the cold months.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2014

Compressive Earth Observatory: An Insight from AIRS/AMSU Retrievals

We demonstrate that the global fields of temperature, humidity and geopotential heights admit a nearly sparse representation in the wavelet domain, offering a viable path forward to explore new paradigms of sparsity-promoting data assimilation and compressive recovery of land surface-atmospheric states from space. We illustrate this idea using retrieval products of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on board the Aqua satellite. The results reveal that the sparsity of the fields of temperature is relatively pressure-independent while atmospheric humidity and geopotential heights are typically sparser at lower and higher pressure levels, respectively. We provide evidence that these land-atmospheric states can be accurately estimated using a small set of measurements by taking advantage of their sparsity prior.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2014

Shrunken Locally Linear Embedding for Passive Microwave Retrieval of Precipitation

This paper introduces a new Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of passive microwave rainfall retrieval. The proposed methodology relies on a regularization technique and makes use of two joint dictionaries of coincidental rainfall profiles and their corresponding upwelling spectral radiative fluxes. A sequential detection-estimation strategy is adopted, which basically assumes that similar rainfall intensity values and their spectral radiances live close to some sufficiently smooth manifolds with analogous local geometry. The detection step employs a nearest neighborhood classification rule, while the estimation scheme is equipped with a constrained shrinkage estimator to ensure stability of retrieval and some physical consistency. The algorithm is examined using coincidental observations of the active precipitation radar (PR) and passive microwave imager (TMI) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. We present promising results of instantaneous rainfall retrieval for some tropical storms and mesoscale convective systems over ocean, land, and coastal zones. We provide evidence that the algorithm is capable of properly capturing different storm morphologies including high intensity rain-cells and trailing light rainfall, especially over land and coastal areas. The algorithm is also validated at an annual scale for calendar year 2013 versus the standard (version 7) radar (2A25) and radiometer (2A12) rainfall products of the TRMM satellite.

physics.data-an↗