Quo nomine vis vocari? Random-copying, conformity, and anti-conformity in the temporal sequence of papal names
The study of cultural evolution seeks to understand the processes by which behavioral variants are chosen in human cultures over time. The selection of new popes, each of whom chooses a papal name -- typically reusing previous names in reference to previous popes -- is among the longest ongoing cultural processes taking place in a single human institution. Here, we test the papal naming sequence against predictions of models developed in population genetics and stochastic processes -- Ewens sampling theory and the Chinese restaurant process -- which in the case of papal names amount to randomly copying an existing name in proportion to its frequency, with the possibility of innovation. Although papal name choices are careful individual decisions, we find that the sequence of papal names often accords with a random-copying model, with long periods in which a model of conformity in name choices more closely fits the name sequence and other periods in which anti-conformity provides a closer fit. Hence, despite the consideration that enters into individual choices, aggregate cultural behavior in a 2000-year old human process can potentially be described with simple laws. Our methods can potentially be used to deepen quantitative analyses of conformity and anti-conformity in other cultural processes that involve discrete cultural variants.