arXiv subjects

Eigo Segawa

Publications and source records attributed to Eigo Segawa.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Ultra-fast Traffic Nowcasting and Control via Differentiable Agent-based Simulation

Traffic digital twins, which inform policymakers of effective interventions based on large-scale, high-fidelity computational models calibrated to real-world traffic, hold promise for addressing societal challenges in our rapidly urbanizing world. However, conventional fine-grained traffic simulations are non-differentiable and typically rely on inefficient gradient-free optimization, making calibration for real-world applications computationally infeasible. Here we present a differentiable agent-based traffic simulator that enables ultra-fast model calibration, traffic nowcasting, and control on large-scale networks. We develop several differentiable computing techniques for simulating individual vehicle movements, including stochastic decision-making and inter-agent interactions, while ensuring that entire simulation trajectories remain end-to-end differentiable for efficient gradient-based optimization. On the large-scale Chicago road network, with over 10,000 calibration parameters, our model simulates more than one million vehicles at 173 times real-time speed. This ultra-fast simulation, together with efficient gradient-based optimization, enables us to complete model calibration using the previous 30 minutes of traffic data in 455 s, provide a one-hour-ahead traffic nowcast in 21 s, and solve the resulting traffic control problem in 728 s. This yields a full calibration--nowcast--control loop in under 20 minutes, leaving about 40 minutes of lead time for implementing interventions. Our work thus provides a practical computational basis for realizing traffic digital twins.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Structure-Aware Optimization of Decision Diagrams for Health Guidance via Integer Programming

In this paper, we consider a structure-aware optimization problem for decision diagrams used for health guidance. In particular, we focus on decision diagrams that decide to whom public sectors suggest consulting a medical worker. Furthermore, these diagrams decide which notification method should be used for each target person. In this paper, we formulate this problem as an integer program. Then we evaluate its practical usefulness through numerical examples.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Designing Dynamic Pricing for Bike-sharing Systems via Differentiable Agent-based Simulation

Bike-sharing systems are emerging in various cities as a new ecofriendly transportation system. In these systems, spatiotemporally varying user demands lead to imbalanced inventory at bicycle stations, resulting in additional relocation costs. Therefore, it is essential to manage user demand through optimal dynamic pricing for the system. However, optimal pricing design for such a system is challenging because the system involves users with diverse backgrounds and their probabilistic choices. To address this problem, we develop a differentiable agent-based simulation to rapidly design dynamic pricing in bike-sharing systems, achieving balanced bicycle inventory despite spatiotemporally heterogeneous trips and probabilistic user decisions. We first validate our approach against conventional methods through numerical experiments involving 25 bicycle stations and five time slots, yielding 100 parameters. Compared to the conventional methods, our approach obtains a more accurate solution with a 73% to 78% reduction in loss while achieving more than a 100-fold increase in convergence speed. We further validate our approach on a large-scale urban bike-sharing system scenario involving 289 bicycle stations, resulting in a total of 1156 parameters. Through simulations using the obtained pricing policies, we confirm that these policies can naturally induce balanced inventory without any manual relocation. Additionally, we find that the cost of discounts to induce the balanced inventory can be minimized by setting appropriate initial conditions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Fully Data-driven but Interpretable Human Behavioural Modelling with Differentiable Discrete Choice Model

Discrete choice models are essential for modelling various decision-making processes in human behaviour. However, the specification of these models has depended heavily on domain knowledge from experts, and the fully automated but interpretable modelling of complex human behaviours has been a long-standing challenge. In this paper, we introduce the differentiable discrete choice model (Diff-DCM), a fully data-driven method for the interpretable modelling, learning, prediction, and control of complex human behaviours, which is realised by differentiable programming. Solely from input features and choice outcomes without any prior knowledge, Diff-DCM can estimate interpretable closed-form utility functions that reproduce observed behaviours. Comprehensive experiments with both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that Diff-DCM can be applied to various types of data and requires only a small amount of computational resources for the estimations, which can be completed within tens of seconds on a laptop without any accelerators. In these experiments, we also demonstrate that, using its differentiability, Diff-DCM can provide useful insights into human behaviours, such as an optimal intervention path for effective behavioural changes. This study provides a strong basis for the fully automated and reliable modelling, prediction, and control of human behaviours.

cs.LG↗