arXiv subjects

Einar Bjarki Gunnarsson

Publications and source records attributed to Einar Bjarki Gunnarsson.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Optimal dosing of anti-cancer treatment under drug-induced plasticity

While cancer has traditionally been considered a genetic disease, mounting evidence indicates an important role for non-genetic (epigenetic) mechanisms. Common anti-cancer drugs have recently been observed to induce the adoption of non-genetic drug-tolerant cell states, thereby accelerating the evolution of drug resistance. This confounds conventional high-dose treatment strategies aimed at maximal tumor reduction, since high doses can simultaneously promote non-genetic resistance. In this work, we study optimal dosing of anti-cancer treatment under drug-induced cell plasticity. We show that the optimal dosing strategy steers the tumor to a fixed equilibrium composition between sensitive and tolerant cells, while precisely balancing the trade-off between cell kill and tolerance induction. The optimal equilibrium strategy ranges from applying a low dose continuously to applying the maximum dose intermittently, depending on the dynamics of tolerance induction. We finally discuss how our approach can be integrated with in vitro data to derive patient-specific treatment insights.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

A statistical framework for detecting therapy-induced resistance from drug screens

Resistance to therapy remains a significant challenge in cancer treatment, often due to the presence of a stem-like cell population that drives tumor recurrence post-treatment. Moreover, many anticancer therapies induce plasticity, converting initially drug-sensitive cells to a more resistant state, e.g. through epigenetic processes and de-differentiation programs. Understanding the balance between therapeutic anti-tumor effects and induced resistance is critical for identifying treatment strategies. In this study, we introduce a robust statistical framework, based on multi-type branching process models of the evolutionary dynamics of tumor cell populations, to detect and quantify therapy-induced resistance phenomena from high throughput drug screening data. Through comprehensive in silico experiments, we show the efficacy of our framework in estimating parameters governing population dynamics and drug responses in a heterogeneous tumor population where cell state transitions are influenced by the drug. Finally, using recent in vitro data from multiple sources, we demonstrate that our framework is effective for analyzing real-world data and generating meaningful predictions.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Limit theorems for the site frequency spectrum of neutral mutations in an exponentially growing population

The site frequency spectrum (SFS) is a widely used summary statistic of genomic data. Motivated by recent evidence for the role of neutral evolution in cancer, we investigate the SFS of neutral mutations in an exponentially growing population. Using branching process techniques, we establish (first-order) almost sure convergence results for the SFS of a Galton-Watson process, evaluated either at a fixed time or at the stochastic time at which the population first reaches a certain size. We finally use our results to construct consistent estimators for the extinction probability and the effective mutation rate of a birth-death process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Statistical inference of the rates of cell proliferation and phenotypic switching in cancer

Recent evidence suggests that nongenetic (epigenetic) mechanisms play an important role at all stages of cancer evolution. In many cancers, these mechanisms have been observed to induce dynamic switching between two or more cell states, which commonly show differential responses to drug treatments. To understand how these cancers evolve over time, and how they respond to treatment, we need to understand the state-dependent rates of cell proliferation and phenotypic switching. In this work, we propose a rigorous statistical framework for estimating these parameters, using data from commonly performed cell line experiments, where phenotypes are sorted and expanded in culture. The framework explicitly models the stochastic dynamics of cell division, cell death and phenotypic switching, and it provides likelihood-based confidence intervals for the model parameters. The input data can be either the fraction of cells or the number of cells in each state at one or more time points. Through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, we show that when cell fraction data is used, the rates of switching may be the only parameters that can be estimated accurately. On the other hand, using cell number data enables accurate estimation of the net division rate for each phenotype, and it can even enable estimation of the state-dependent rates of cell division and cell death. We conclude by applying our framework to a publicly available dataset.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2022

Dynamics of advantageous mutant spread in spatial death-birth and birth-death Moran models

The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Spread of premalignant mutant clones and cancer initiation in multilayered tissue

Over 80% of human cancers originate from the epithelium, which covers the outer and inner surfaces of organs and blood vessels. In stratified epithelium, the bottom layers are occupied by stem and stem-like cells that continually divide and replenish the upper layers. In this work, we study the spread of premalignant mutant clones and cancer initiation in stratified epithelium using the biased voter model on stacked two-dimensional lattices. Our main result is an estimate of the propagation speed of a premalignant mutant clone, which is asymptotically precise in the cancer-relevant weak-selection limit. We use our main result to study cancer initiation under a two-step mutational model of cancer, which includes computing the distributions of the time of cancer initiation and the size of the premalignant clone giving rise to cancer. Our work quantifies the effect of epithelial tissue thickness on the process of carcinogenesis, thereby contributing to an emerging understanding of the spatial evolutionary dynamics of cancer.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Exact site frequency spectra of neutrally evolving tumors: a transition between power laws reveals a signature of cell viability

The site frequency spectrum (SFS) is a popular summary statistic of genomic data. While the SFS of a constant-sized population undergoing neutral mutations has been extensively studied in population genetics, the rapidly growing amount of cancer genomic data has attracted interest in the spectrum of an exponentially growing population. Recent theoretical results have generally dealt with special or limiting cases, such as considering only cells with an infinite line of descent, assuming deterministic tumor growth, or taking large-time or large-population limits. In this work, we derive exact expressions for the expected SFS of a cell population that evolves according to a stochastic branching process, first for cells with an infinite line of descent and then for the total population, evaluated either at a fixed time (fixed-time spectrum) or at the stochastic time at which the population reaches a certain size (fixed-size spectrum). We find that while the rate of mutation scales the SFS of the total population linearly, the rates of cell birth and cell death change the shape of the spectrum at the small-frequency end, inducing a transition between a $1/j^2$ power-law spectrum and a $1/j$ spectrum as cell viability decreases. We show that this insight can in principle be used to estimate the ratio between the rate of cell death and cell birth, as well as the mutation rate, using the site frequency spectrum alone. Although the discussion is framed in terms of tumor dynamics, our results apply to any exponentially growing population of individuals undergoing neutral mutations.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Understanding the role of phenotypic switching in cancer drug resistance

The emergence of acquired drug resistance in cancer represents a major barrier to treatment success. While research has traditionally focused on genetic sources of resistance, recent findings suggest that cancer cells can acquire transient resistant phenotypes via epigenetic modifications and other non-genetic mechanisms. Although these resistant phenotypes are eventually relinquished by individual cells, they can temporarily 'save' the tumor from extinction and enable the emergence of more permanent resistance mechanisms. These observations have generated interest in the potential of epigenetic therapies for long-term tumor control or eradication. In this work, we develop a mathematical model to study how phenotypic switching at the single-cell level affects resistance evolution in cancer. We highlight unique features of non-genetic resistance, probe the evolutionary consequences of epigenetic drugs and explore potential therapeutic strategies. We find that even short-term epigenetic modifications and stochastic fluctuations in gene expression can drive long-term drug resistance in the absence of any bona fide resistance mechanisms. We also find that an epigenetic drug that slightly perturbs the average retention of the resistant phenotype can turn guaranteed treatment failure into guaranteed success. Lastly, we find that combining an epigenetic drug with an anti-cancer agent can significantly outperform monotherapy, and that treatment outcome is heavily affected by drug sequencing.

q-bio.PE↗