arXiv subjects

Ekaterina Oparina

Publications and source records attributed to Ekaterina Oparina.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Empirical Welfare Analysis with Hedonic Budget Constraints

We analyze demand settings where heterogeneous consumers maximize utility for product attributes subject to a nonlinear budget constraint. We develop nonparametric methods for welfare-analysis of interventions that change the constraint. Two new findings are Roy's identity for smooth, nonlinear budgets, which yields a Partial Differential Equation system, and a Slutsky-like symmetry condition for demand. Under scalar unobserved heterogeneity and single-crossing preferences, the coefficient functions in the PDEs are nonparametrically identified, and under symmetry, lead to path-independent, money-metric welfare. We illustrate our methods with welfare evaluation of a hypothetical change in relationship between property rent and neighborhood school-quality using British microdata.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

What is the public's social welfare function?

Optimal public policy requires a social welfare function defined over individual utilities. While there is substantial research on income-based social welfare functions, no published study has directly elicited public preferences over utility when measured by subjective wellbeing. Using a novel survey instrument with a representative UK sample (N=2,068), we estimate the public's social welfare function for life satisfaction. We find significant aversion to wellbeing inequality, with a median isoelastic parameter $α$=0.48. This implies a social welfare function approximately equal to the sum of square roots of individual utilities. The median respondent values improving the wellbeing of the least satisfied by one unit roughly twice as much as improving the most satisfied by one unit. Our findings provide ethically grounded distributional weights for wellbeing policy evaluation and cost-benefit analysis.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Body Fat, Skin Tone, and the Accuracy of Smartwatch Caloric Expenditure Estimates

Smartwatches are widely used to estimate caloric expenditure for weight management, clinical decision making, and public health monitoring. These devices combine photoplethysmography, accelerometry, and proprietary algorithms. However, prior studies report substantial error, and the influence of moderators such as skin tone and body fat percentage (BF) remains underexamined. This study tested whether smartwatch brand, BF, and Fitzpatrick skin type (III to V) predict caloric expenditure error relative to indirect calorimetry. Fifty eight Hispanic adults completed a single laboratory visit including a ten minute recumbent cycling protocol with alternating two minute moderate and vigorous intensity intervals, bracketed by rest and recovery. Participants wore four consumer devices: Apple Watch Series 8, Fitbit Sense 2, Samsung Galaxy Watch 5, and Garmin Forerunner 955. Energy expenditure was measured using a COSMED K5 metabolic system. After device specific data quality filtering, valid participant device pairings ranged from 44 to 52 per brand. One sample tests showed significant mean bias for three devices: Apple, Garmin, and Samsung. Fitbit showed no significant overall bias, although this depended on device specific outlier removal. Mean bias varied by brand, with Garmin and Samsung showing the largest overestimations. Mixed effects models revealed significant effects of device and BF, as well as a device by BF interaction, with physical activity energy expenditure error increasing as adiposity increased. Overall, common smartwatches substantially misestimate caloric expenditure compared with indirect calorimetry. Error varies by brand and worsens with higher body fat, highlighting limitations of current consumer wearables and the need for improved accuracy across diverse body types.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2022

Robust Ranking of Happiness Outcomes: A Median Regression Perspective

Ordered probit and logit models have been frequently used to estimate the mean ranking of happiness outcomes (and other ordinal data) across groups. However, it has been recently highlighted that such ranking may not be identified in most happiness applications. We suggest researchers focus on median comparison instead of the mean. This is because the median rank can be identified even if the mean rank is not. Furthermore, median ranks in probit and logit models can be readily estimated using standard statistical softwares. The median ranking, as well as ranking for other quantiles, can also be estimated semiparametrically and we provide a new constrained mixed integer optimization procedure for implementation. We apply it to estimate a happiness equation using General Social Survey data of the US.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

Human Wellbeing and Machine Learning

There is a vast literature on the determinants of subjective wellbeing. International organisations and statistical offices are now collecting such survey data at scale. However, standard regression models explain surprisingly little of the variation in wellbeing, limiting our ability to predict it. In response, we here assess the potential of Machine Learning (ML) to help us better understand wellbeing. We analyse wellbeing data on over a million respondents from Germany, the UK, and the United States. In terms of predictive power, our ML approaches do perform better than traditional models. Although the size of the improvement is small in absolute terms, it turns out to be substantial when compared to that of key variables like health. We moreover find that drastically expanding the set of explanatory variables doubles the predictive power of both OLS and the ML approaches on unseen data. The variables identified as important by our ML algorithms - $i.e.$ material conditions, health, and meaningful social relations - are similar to those that have already been identified in the literature. In that sense, our data-driven ML results validate the findings from conventional approaches.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2019

Analyzing Subjective Well-Being Data with Misclassification

We use novel nonparametric techniques to test for the presence of non-classical measurement error in reported life satisfaction (LS) and study the potential effects from ignoring it. Our dataset comes from Wave 3 of the UK Understanding Society that is surveyed from 35,000 British households. Our test finds evidence of measurement error in reported LS for the entire dataset as well as for 26 out of 32 socioeconomic subgroups in the sample. We estimate the joint distribution of reported and latent LS nonparametrically in order to understand the mis-reporting behavior. We show this distribution can then be used to estimate parametric models of latent LS. We find measurement error bias is not severe enough to distort the main drivers of LS. But there is an important difference that is policy relevant. We find women tend to over-report their latent LS relative to men. This may help explain the gender puzzle that questions why women are reportedly happier than men despite being worse off on objective outcomes such as income and employment.

econ.EM↗