arXiv subjects

Elchanan Mossel

Publications and source records attributed to Elchanan Mossel.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Long ties accelerate noisy threshold-based contagions

Network structure can affect when and how widely new ideas, products, and behaviors are adopted. In widely-used models of biological contagion, interventions that randomly rewire edges (on average making them "longer") accelerate spread. However, there are other models relevant to social contagion, such as those motivated by myopic best-response in games with strategic complements, in which an individual's behavior is described by a threshold number of adopting neighbors above which adoption occurs (i.e., complex contagions). Recent work has argued that highly clustered, rather than random, networks facilitate spread of these complex contagions. Here we show that minor modifications to this model, which make it more realistic, reverse this result, thereby harmonizing qualitative facts about how network structure affects contagion. To model the trade-off between long and short edges we analyze the rate of spread over networks that are the union of circular lattices and random graphs on $n$ nodes. Allowing for noise in adoption decisions (i.e., adoptions below threshold) to occur with order ${n}^{-1/θ}$ probability along at least some "short" cycle edges is enough to ensure that random rewiring accelerates the spread of a noisy threshold-$θ$ contagion. This conclusion also holds under partial but frequent enough rewiring and when adoption decisions are reversible but infrequently so, as well as in high-dimensional lattice structures that facilitate faster-expanding contagions. Simulations illustrate the robustness of these results to several variations on this noisy best-response behavior. Hypothetical interventions that randomly rewire existing edges or add random edges (versus adding "short", triad-closing edges) in hundreds of empirical social networks reduce time to spread.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Agreement and Statistical Efficiency in Bayesian Perception Models

Bayesian models of group learning are studied in Economics since the 1970s. and more recently in computational linguistics. The models from Economics postulate that agents maximize utility in their communication and actions. The Economics models do not explain the ``probability matching" phenomena that are observed in many experimental studies. To address these observations, Bayesian models that do not formally fit into the economic utility maximization framework were introduced. In these models individuals sample from their posteriors in communication. In this work we study the asymptotic behavior of such models on connected networks with repeated communication. Perhaps surprisingly, despite the fact that individual agents are not utility maximizers in the classical sense, we establish that the individuals ultimately agree and furthermore show that the limiting posterior is Bayes optimal. We explore the interpretation of our results in terms of Large Language Models (LLMs). In the positive direction our results can be interpreted as stating that interaction between different LLMs can lead to optimal learning. However, we provide an example showing how misspecification may lead LLM agents to be overconfident in their estimates.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Influences in Mixing Measures

The theory of influences in product measures has profound applications in theoretical computer science, combinatorics, and discrete probability. This deep theory is intimately connected to functional inequalities and to the Fourier analysis of discrete groups. Originally, influences of functions were motivated by the study of social choice theory, wherein a Boolean function represents a voting scheme, its inputs represent the votes, and its output represents the outcome of the elections. Thus, product measures represent a scenario in which the votes of the parties are randomly and independently distributed, which is often far from the truth in real-life scenarios. We begin to develop the theory of influences for more general measures under mixing or correlation decay conditions. More specifically, we prove analogues of the KKL and Talagrand influence theorems for Markov Random Fields on bounded degree graphs with correlation decay. We show how some of the original applications of the theory of in terms of voting and coalitions extend to general measures with correlation decay. Our results thus shed light both on voting with correlated voters and on the behavior of general functions of Markov Random Fields (also called ``spin-systems") with correlation decay.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

The Power of an Adversary in Glauber Dynamics

Glauber dynamics are a natural model of dynamics of dependent systems. While originally introduced in statistical physics, they have found important applications in the study of social networks, computer vision and other domains. In this work, we introduce a model of corrupted Glauber dynamics whereby instead of updating according to the prescribed conditional probabilities, some of the vertices and their updates are controlled by an adversary. We study the effect of such corruptions on global features of the system. Among the questions we study are: How many nodes need to be controlled in order to change the average statistics of the system in polynomial time? And how many nodes are needed to obstruct approximate convergence of the dynamics? Our results can be viewed as studying the robustness of classical sampling methods and are thus related to robust inference. The proofs connect to classical theory of Glauber dynamics from statistical physics.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Sharp thresholds in inference of planted subgraphs

A major question in the study of the Erdős--Rényi random graph is to understand the probability that it contains a given subgraph. This study originated in classical work of Erdős and Rényi (1960). More recent work studies this question both in building a general theory of sharp versus coarse transitions (Friedgut and Bourgain 1999; Hatami, 2012) and in results on the location of the transition (Kahn and Kalai, 2007; Talagrand, 2010; Frankston, Kahn, Narayanan, Park, 2019; Park and Pham, 2022). In inference problems, one often studies the optimal accuracy of inference as a function of the amount of noise. In a variety of sparse recovery problems, an ``all-or-nothing (AoN) phenomenon'' has been observed: Informally, as the amount of noise is gradually increased, at some critical threshold the inference problem undergoes a sharp jump from near-perfect recovery to near-zero accuracy (Gamarnik and Zadik, 2017; Reeves, Xu, Zadik, 2021). We can regard AoN as the natural inference analogue of the sharp threshold phenomenon in random graphs. In contrast with the general theory developed for sharp thresholds of random graph properties, the AoN phenomenon has only been studied so far in specific inference settings. In this paper we study the general problem of inferring a graph $H=H_n$ planted in an Erdős--Rényi random graph, thus naturally connecting the two lines of research mentioned above. We show that questions of AoN are closely connected to first moment thresholds, and to a generalization of the so-called Kahn--Kalai expectation threshold that scans over subgraphs of $H$ of edge density at least $q$. In a variety of settings we characterize AoN, by showing that AoN occurs if and only if this ``generalized expectation threshold'' is roughly constant in $q$. Our proofs combine techniques from random graph theory and Bayesian inference.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Reconstruction on Trees and Low-Degree Polynomials

The study of Markov processes and broadcasting on trees has deep connections to a variety of areas including statistical physics, graphical models, phylogenetic reconstruction, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and community detection in random graphs. Notably, the celebrated Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm achieves Bayes-optimal performance for the reconstruction problem of predicting the value of the Markov process at the root of the tree from its values at the leaves. Recently, the analysis of low-degree polynomials has emerged as a valuable tool for predicting computational-to-statistical gaps. In this work, we investigate the performance of low-degree polynomials for the reconstruction problem on trees. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that there are simple tree models with $N$ leaves and bounded arity where (1) nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple polynomial time algorithm and with robustness to noise, but not with any polynomial of degree $N^{c}$ for $c > 0$ a constant depending only on the arity, and (2) when the tree is unknown and given multiple samples with correlated root assignments, nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple Statistical Query algorithm but not with any polynomial of degree $N^c$. These results clarify some of the limitations of low-degree polynomials vs. polynomial time algorithms for Bayesian estimation problems. They also complement recent work of Moitra, Mossel, and Sandon who studied the circuit complexity of Belief Propagation. As a consequence of our main result, we show that for some $c' > 0$ depending only on the arity, $\exp(N^{c'})$ many samples are needed for RBF kernel regression to obtain nontrivial correlation with the true regression function (BP). We pose related open questions about low-degree polynomials and the Kesten-Stigum threshold.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Spectral Algorithms Optimally Recover Planted Sub-structures

Spectral algorithms are an important building block in machine learning and graph algorithms. We are interested in studying when such algorithms can be applied directly to provide optimal solutions to inference tasks. Previous works by Abbe, Fan, Wang and Zhong (2020) and by Dhara, Gaudio, Mossel and Sandon (2022) showed the optimality for community detection in the Stochastic Block Model (SBM), as well as in a censored variant of the SBM. Here we show that this optimality is somewhat universal as it carries over to other planted substructures such as the planted dense subgraph problem and submatrix localization problem, as well as to a censored version of the planted dense subgraph problem.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2022

A second moment proof of the spread lemma

This note concerns a well-known result which we term the ``spread lemma,'' which establishes the existence (with high probability) of a desired structure in a random set. The spread lemma was central to two recent celebrated results: (a) the improved bounds of Alweiss, Lovett, Wu, and Zhang (2019) on the Erdős-Rado sunflower conjecture; and (b) the proof of the fractional Kahn--Kalai conjecture by Frankston, Kahn, Narayanan and Park (2019). While the lemma was first proved (and later refined) by delicate counting arguments, alternative proofs have also been given, via Shannon's noiseless coding theorem (Rao, 2019), and also via manipulations of Shannon entropy bounds (Tao, 2020). In this note we present a new proof of the spread lemma, that takes advantage of an explicit recasting of the proof in the language of Bayesian statistical inference. We show that from this viewpoint the proof proceeds in a straightforward and principled probabilistic manner, leading to a truncated second moment calculation which concludes the proof. The proof can also be viewed as a demonstration of the ``planting trick'' introduced by Achlioptas and Coga-Oghlan (2008) in the study of random constraint satisfaction problems.

math.CO↗

arXiv2022

Efficient Reconstruction of Stochastic Pedigrees: Some Steps From Theory to Practice

In an extant population, how much information do extant individuals provide on the pedigree of their ancestors? Recent work by Kim, Mossel, Ramnarayan and Turner (2020) studied this question under a number of simplifying assumptions, including random mating, fixed length inheritance blocks and sufficiently large founding population. They showed that under these conditions if the average number of offspring is a sufficiently large constant, then it is possible to recover a large fraction of the pedigree structure and genetic content by an algorithm they named REC-GEN. We are interested in studying the performance of REC-GEN on simulated data generated according to the model. As a first step, we improve the running time of the algorithm. However, we observe that even the faster version of the algorithm does not do well in any simulations in recovering the pedigree beyond 2 generations. We claim that this is due to the inbreeding present in any setting where the algorithm can be run, even on simulated data. To support the claim we show that a main step of the algorithm, called ancestral reconstruction, performs accurately in a idealized setting with no inbreeding but performs poorly in random mating populations. To overcome the poor behavior of REC-GEN we introduce a Belief-Propagation based heuristic that accounts for the inbreeding and performs much better in our simulations.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Broadcasting on Two-Dimensional Regular Grids

We study a specialization of the problem of broadcasting on directed acyclic graphs, namely, broadcasting on 2D regular grids. Consider a 2D regular grid with source vertex $X$ at layer $0$ and $k+1$ vertices at layer $k\geq 1$, which are at distance $k$ from $X$. Every vertex of the 2D regular grid has outdegree $2$, the vertices at the boundary have indegree $1$, and all other vertices have indegree $2$. At time $0$, $X$ is given a random bit. At time $k\geq 1$, each vertex in layer $k$ receives transmitted bits from its parents in layer $k-1$, where the bits pass through binary symmetric channels with noise level $δ\in(0,1/2)$. Then, each vertex combines its received bits using a common Boolean processing function to produce an output bit. The objective is to recover $X$ with probability of error better than $1/2$ from all vertices at layer $k$ as $k \rightarrow \infty$. Besides their natural interpretation in communication networks, such broadcasting processes can be construed as 1D probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) with boundary conditions that limit the number of sites at each time $k$ to $k+1$. We conjecture that it is impossible to propagate information in a 2D regular grid regardless of the noise level and the choice of processing function. In this paper, we make progress towards establishing this conjecture, and prove using ideas from percolation and coding theory that recovery of $X$ is impossible for any $δ$ provided that all vertices use either AND or XOR processing functions. Furthermore, we propose a martingale-based approach that establishes the impossibility of recovering $X$ for any $δ$ when all NAND processing functions are used if certain supermartingales can be rigorously constructed. We also provide numerical evidence for the existence of these supermartingales by computing explicit examples for different values of $δ$ via linear programming.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

On the Second Kahn--Kalai Conjecture

For any given graph $H$, we are interested in $p_\mathrm{crit}(H)$, the minimal $p$ such that the Erdős-Rényi graph $G(n,p)$ contains a copy of $H$ with probability at least $1/2$. Kahn and Kalai (2007) conjectured that $p_\mathrm{crit}(H)$ is given up to a logarithmic factor by a simpler "subgraph expectation threshold" $p_\mathrm{E}(H)$, which is the minimal $p$ such that for every subgraph $H'\subseteq H$, the Erdős-Rényi graph $G(n,p)$ contains \emph{in expectation} at least $1/2$ copies of $H'$. It is trivial that $p_\mathrm{E}(H) \le p_\mathrm{crit}(H)$, and the so-called "second Kahn-Kalai conjecture" states that $p_\mathrm{crit}(H) \lesssim p_\mathrm{E}(H) \log e(H)$ where $e(H)$ is the number of edges in $H$. In this article, we present a natural modification $p_\mathrm{E, new}(H)$ of the Kahn--Kalai subgraph expectation threshold, which we show is sandwiched between $p_\mathrm{E}(H)$ and $p_\mathrm{crit}(H)$. The new definition $p_\mathrm{E, new}(H)$ is based on the simple observation that if $G(n,p)$ contains a copy of $H$ and $H$ contains \emph{many} copies of $H'$, then $G(n,p)$ must also contain \emph{many} copies of $H'$. We then show that $p_\mathrm{crit}(H) \lesssim p_\mathrm{E, new}(H) \log e(H)$, thus proving a modification of the second Kahn--Kalai conjecture. The bound follows by a direct application of the set-theoretic "spread" property, which led to recent breakthroughs in the sunflower conjecture by Alweiss, Lovett, Wu and Zhang and the first fractional Kahn--Kalai conjecture by Frankston, Kahn, Narayanan and Park.

math.CO↗

arXiv2022

Shotgun assembly of labeled graphs

We consider the problem of reconstructing graphs or labeled graphs from neighborhoods of a given radius r. Special instances of this problem include the well known: DNA shotgun assembly; the lesser-known: neural network reconstruction; and a new problem: assembling random jigsaw puzzles. We provide some necessary and some sufficient conditions for correct recovery both in combinatorial terms and for some generative models including random labelings of lattices, Erdos-Renyi random graphs, and the random jigsaw puzzle model. Many open problems and conjectures are provided.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Seeding with Costly Network Information

We study the task of selecting $k$ nodes, in a social network of size $n$, to seed a diffusion with maximum expected spread size, under the independent cascade model with cascade probability $p$. Most of the previous work on this problem (known as influence maximization) focuses on efficient algorithms to approximate the optimal seed set with provable guarantees given knowledge of the entire network; however, obtaining full knowledge of the network is often very costly in practice. Here we develop algorithms and guarantees for approximating the optimal seed set while bounding how much network information is collected. First, we study the achievable guarantees using a sublinear influence sample size. We provide an almost tight approximation algorithm with an additive $εn$ loss and show that the squared dependence of sample size on $k$ is asymptotically optimal when $ε$ is small. We then propose a probing algorithm that queries edges from the graph and use them to find a seed set with the same almost tight approximation guarantee. We also provide a matching (up to logarithmic factors) lower-bound on the required number of edges. This algorithm is implementable in field surveys or in crawling online networks. Our probing takes $p$ as an input which may not be known in advance, and we show how to down-sample the probed edges to match the best estimate of $p$ if they are collected with a higher probability. Finally, we test our algorithms on an empirical network to quantify the tradeoff between the cost of obtaining more refined network information and the benefit of the added information for guiding improved seeding strategies.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2022

Inference in Opinion Dynamics under Social Pressure

We introduce a new opinion dynamics model where a group of agents holds two kinds of opinions: inherent and declared. Each agent's inherent opinion is fixed and unobservable by the other agents. At each time step, agents broadcast their declared opinions on a social network, which are governed by the agents' inherent opinions and social pressure. In particular, we assume that agents may declare opinions that are not aligned with their inherent opinions to conform with their neighbors. This raises the natural question: Can we estimate the agents' inherent opinions from observations of declared opinions? For example, agents' inherent opinions may represent their true political alliances (Democrat or Republican), while their declared opinions may model the political inclinations of tweets on social media. In this context, we may seek to predict the election results by observing voters' tweets, which do not necessarily reflect their political support due to social pressure. We analyze this question in the special case where the underlying social network is a complete graph. We prove that, as long as the population does not include large majorities, estimation of aggregate and individual inherent opinions is possible. On the other hand, large majorities force minorities to lie over time, which makes asymptotic estimation impossible.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Almost-Linear Planted Cliques Elude the Metropolis Process

A seminal work of Jerrum (1992) showed that large cliques elude the Metropolis process. More specifically, Jerrum showed that the Metropolis algorithm cannot find a clique of size $k=Θ(n^α), α\in (0,1/2)$, which is planted in the Erdős-Rényi random graph $G(n,1/2)$, in polynomial time. Information theoretically it is possible to find such planted cliques as soon as $k \ge (2+ε) \log n$. Since the work of Jerrum, the computational problem of finding a planted clique in $G(n,1/2)$ was studied extensively and many polynomial time algorithms were shown to find the planted clique if it is of size $k = Ω(\sqrt{n})$, while no polynomial-time algorithm is known to work when $k=o(\sqrt{n})$. Notably, the first evidence of the problem's algorithmic hardness is commonly attributed to the result of Jerrum from 1992. In this paper we revisit the original Metropolis algorithm suggested by Jerrum. Interestingly, we find that the Metropolis algorithm actually fails to recover a planted clique of size $k=Θ(n^α)$ for any constant $0 \leq α< 1$. Moreover, we strengthen Jerrum's results in a number of other ways including: Like many results in the MCMC literature, the result of Jerrum shows that there exists a starting state (which may depend on the instance) for which the Metropolis algorithm fails. For a wide range of temperatures, we show that the algorithm fails when started at the most natural initial state, which is the empty clique. This answers an open problem stated in Jerrum (1992). We also show that the simulated tempering version of the Metropolis algorithm, a more sophisticated temperature-exchange variant of it, also fails at the same regime of parameters. Finally, our results confirm recent predictions by Gamarnik and Zadik (2019) and Angelini, Fachin, de Feo (2021).

cs.DS↗

arXiv2022

Spoofing Generalization: When Can't You Trust Proprietary Models?

In this work, we study the computational complexity of determining whether a machine learning model that perfectly fits the training data will generalizes to unseen data. In particular, we study the power of a malicious agent whose goal is to construct a model g that fits its training data and nothing else, but is indistinguishable from an accurate model f. We say that g strongly spoofs f if no polynomial-time algorithm can tell them apart. If instead we restrict to algorithms that run in $n^c$ time for some fixed $c$, we say that g c-weakly spoofs f. Our main results are 1. Under cryptographic assumptions, strong spoofing is possible and 2. For any c> 0, c-weak spoofing is possible unconditionally While the assumption of a malicious agent is an extreme scenario (hopefully companies training large models are not malicious), we believe that it sheds light on the inherent difficulties of blindly trusting large proprietary models or data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Shotgun Assembly of Erdos-Renyi Random Graphs

Graph shotgun assembly refers to the problem of reconstructing a graph from a collection of local neighborhoods. In this paper, we consider shotgun assembly of \ER random graphs $G(n, p_n)$, where $p_n = n^{-α}$ for $0 < α< 1$. We consider both reconstruction up to isomorphism as well as exact reconstruction (recovering the vertex labels as well as the structure). We show that given the collection of distance-$1$ neighborhoods, $G$ is exactly reconstructable for $0 < α< \frac{1}{3}$, but not reconstructable for $\frac{1}{2} < α< 1$. Given the collection of distance-$2$ neighborhoods, $G$ is exactly reconstructable for $α\in \left(0, \frac{1}{2}\right) \cup \left(\frac{1}{2}, \frac{3}{5}\right)$, but not reconstructable for $\frac{3}{4} < α< 1$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Spectral Recovery of Binary Censored Block Models

Community detection is the problem of identifying community structure in graphs. Often the graph is modeled as a sample from the Stochastic Block Model, in which each vertex belongs to a community. The probability that two vertices are connected by an edge depends on the communities of those vertices. In this paper, we consider a model of {\em censored} community detection with two communities, where most of the data is missing as the status of only a small fraction of the potential edges is revealed. In this model, vertices in the same community are connected with probability $p$ while vertices in opposite communities are connected with probability $q$. The connectivity status of a given pair of vertices $\{u,v\}$ is revealed with probability $α$, independently across all pairs, where $α= \frac{t \log(n)}{n}$. We establish the information-theoretic threshold $t_c(p,q)$, such that no algorithm succeeds in recovering the communities exactly when $t < t_c(p,q)$. We show that when $t > t_c(p,q)$, a simple spectral algorithm based on a weighted, signed adjacency matrix succeeds in recovering the communities exactly. While spectral algorithms are shown to have near-optimal performance in the symmetric case, we show that they may fail in the asymmetric case where the connection probabilities inside the two communities are allowed to be different. In particular, we show the existence of a parameter regime where a simple two-phase algorithm succeeds but any algorithm based on the top two eigenvectors of the weighted, signed adjacency matrix fails.

math.PR↗