arXiv subjects

Elias Raffoul

Publications and source records attributed to Elias Raffoul.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Diagnosis-Driven Co-planning of Network Reinforcement and BESS for Distribution Grid with High Penetration of Electric Vehicles

While the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) accelerates net-zero goals, uncoordinated charging activities impose severe operational challenges on distribution grids, including exacerbated peak loads, thermal overloading, and voltage violations. To overcome the computational intractability of jointly optimizing grid infrastructure reinforcements and Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) installations, this paper proposes a novel three-stage Diagnosis-Driven Co-Planning (DDCP) framework. The methodology integrates a Violation Detection and Quantification (VDQ) model to systematically identify system breaches, and a Violation Mitigation-Based Planning (VMBP) model for optimal BESS allocation. Specifically, Stage I of the DDCP framework diagnoses critical bottleneck lines that render standalone BESS solutions infeasible; Stage II executes targeted physical upgrades exclusively on these bottlenecks; and Stage III finalizes the optimal BESS deployment on the updated network topology. Furthermore, this study quantifies the EV hosting capacity thresholds before and after BESS integration across varying EV adoption rates and base voltages. Finally, a comprehensive comparative analysis evaluates four mitigation approaches: the VDQ-driven cable upgrade (VCU) model, the VMBP model, system-wide voltage uprating, and the proposed DDCP framework. The results demonstrate that the DDCP framework not only resolves the complex joint-optimization hurdle but also achieves superior techno-economic performance in addressing high-EV-penetration challenges.

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arXiv2024

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Short-Term Distribution System Load Forecasting

Accurate electrical load forecasting is crucial for optimizing power system operations, planning, and management. As power systems become increasingly complex, traditional forecasting methods may fail to capture the intricate patterns and dependencies within load data. Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as powerful alternatives, offering superior prediction accuracy and the ability to model non-linear and complex temporal relationships. This study presents a comprehensive comparison of prominent ML models: feedforward neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory networks, gated recurrent units, and the attention temporal graph convolutional network; for short-term load forecasting of the Energy Corridor distribution system in Houston, Texas. Using a 24-hour look-back window, we train the models on datasets spanning one and five years, to predict the load demand for the next hour and assess performance. Our findings aim to identify the most effective ML approach for accurate load forecasting, contributing to improved grid reliability and system optimization.

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arXiv2024

Assessing the Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging on Residential Distribution Grids

To achieve net-zero carbon emissions, electrification in the transportation sector plays an important role. Significant increase of electric vehicles (EV) has been observed nationally and globally. While the transition to EVs presents substantial environmental benefits, it would lead to several challenges to the power grid due to EV charging activities. Growing EVs greatly increase peak loads on residential grids, particularly during evening charging periods. This surge can result in operational challenges, including greater voltage drops, increased power losses, and potential overloading violations, compromising grid reliability and efficiency. This study focuses on determining ampacity violations, and analyzing line loading levels in a 240-bus distribution system with 1120 customers, located in the Midwest U.S. By simulating a range of charging scenarios and evaluating EV chargers with varying power capacities under different distribution system voltage levels, this research aims to identify lines at risk of ampacity violations for various EV charging penetration rates up to 100%. The findings will provide valuable insights for utilities and grid operators, informing strategies for voltage level adjustments and necessary infrastructure reinforcements to effectively accommodate the growing energy demands associated with widespread EV adoption.

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arXiv2024

LSTM-Based Net Load Forecasting for Wind and Solar Power-Equipped Microgrids

The rising integration of variable renewable energy sources (RES), like solar and wind power, introduces considerable uncertainty in grid operations and energy management. Effective forecasting models are essential for grid operators to anticipate the net load - the difference between consumer electrical demand and renewable power generation. This paper proposes a deep learning (DL) model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for net load forecasting in renewable-based microgrids, considering both solar and wind power. The model's architecture is detailed, and its performance is evaluated using a residential microgrid test case based on a typical meteorological year (TMY) dataset. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTM-based DL model in predicting the net load, showcasing its potential for enhancing energy management in renewable-based microgrids.

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