arXiv subjects

Elisabeth Krause

Publications and source records attributed to Elisabeth Krause.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Dark Energy Survey: Modeling strategy for multiprobe cluster cosmology and validation for the Full Six-year Dataset

We introduce an updated To&Krause2021 model for joint analyses of cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations of weak lensing and galaxy and cluster clustering (termed CL+3x2pt analysis) and validate that this model meets the systematic accuracy requirements of analyses with the statistical precision of the final Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 (Y6) dataset. The validation program consists of two distinct approaches, (1) identification of modeling and parameterization choices and impact studies using simulated analyses with each possible model misspecification (2) end-to-end validation using mock catalogs from customized Cardinal simulations that incorporate realistic galaxy populations and DES-Y6-specific galaxy and cluster selection and photometric redshift modeling, which are the key observational systematics. In combination, these validation tests indicate that the model presented here meets the accuracy requirements of DES-Y6 for CL+3x2pt based on a large list of tests for known systematics. In addition, we also validate that the model is sufficient for several other data combinations: the CL+GC subset of this data vector (excluding galaxy--galaxy lensing and cosmic shear two-point statistics) and the CL+3x2pt+BAO+SN (combination of CL+3x2pt with the previously published Y6 DES baryonic acoustic oscillation and Y5 supernovae data).

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arXiv2025

Testing the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich power spectrum of a halo model using hydrodynamical simulations

Statistical properties of LSS serve as powerful tools to constrain the cosmological properties of our Universe. Tracing the gas pressure, the tSZ effect is a biased probe of mass distribution and can be used to test the physics of feedback or cosmological models. Therefore, it is crucial to develop robust modeling of hot gas pressure for applications to tSZ surveys. Since gas collapses into bound structures, it is expected that most of the tSZ signal is within halos produced by cosmic accretion shocks. Hence, simple empirical halo models can be used to predict the tSZ power spectra. In this study, we employed the HMx halo model to compare the tSZ power spectra with those of several hydrodynamical simulations: the Horizon suite and the Magneticum simulation. We examined various contributions to the tSZ power spectrum across different redshifts, including the one- and two-halo term decomposition, the amount of bound gas, the importance of different masses and the electron pressure profiles. Our comparison of the tSZ power spectrum reveals discrepancies that increase with redshift. We find a 20% to 50% difference between the measured and predicted tSZ angular power spectrum over the multipole range $\ell=10^3-10^4$. Our analysis reveals that these differences are driven by the excess of power in the predicted two-halo term at low k and in the one-halo term at high k. At higher redshifts (z~3), simulations indicate that more power comes from outside the virial radius than from inside suggesting a limitation in the applicability of the halo model. We observe differences in the pressure profiles, despite the fair level of agreement on the tSZ power spectrum at low redshift with the default calibration of the halo model. In conclusion, our study suggests that the properties of the halo model need to be carefully controlled against real or mock data to be proven useful for cosmological purposes.

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arXiv2024

Astrophysical systematics in Kinematic Lensing: quantifying an Intrinsic Alignment analog

Kinematic lensing (KL) is a new weak lensing technique that reduces shape noise for disk galaxies by including spectroscopically measured galaxy kinematics in addition to photometrically measured galaxy shapes. Since KL utilizes the Tully-Fisher relation, any correlation of this relation with the local environment may bias the cosmological interpretation. For the first time, we explore such a Tully-Fisher environmental dependence (TED) effect as a potential astrophysical systematic for KL. Our derivation of the TED systematic can be described in a similar analytical form as intrinsic alignment for traditional weak lensing. We demonstrate analytically that TED only impacts KL if intrinsic aligment for disk galaxies is non-zero. We further use IllustrisTNG simulations to quantify the TED effect. Our two-point correlation measurements do not yield any additional coherent signals that would indicate a systematic bias on KL, within the uncertainties set by the simulation volume.

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arXiv2024

Cosmology from weak lensing, galaxy clustering, CMB lensing and tSZ: II. Optimizing Roman survey design for CMB cross-correlation science

We explore synergies between the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Wide Area Survey (HLWAS) and CMB experiments, specifically Simons Observatory (SO) and CMB-Stage4 (S4). Our simulated analyses include weak lensing, photometric galaxy clustering, CMB lensing, thermal SZ, and cross-correlations between these probes. While we assume the nominal 16,500 square degree area for SO and S4, we consider multiple survey designs for Roman that overlap with Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST): the 2000 square degree reference survey using four photometric bands, and two shallower single-band surveys that cover 10,000 and 18,000 square degree, respectively. We find a ~2x increase in the dark energy figure of merit when including CMB-S4 data for all Roman survey designs. We further find a strong increase in constraining power for the Roman wide survey scenario cases, despite the reduction in galaxy number density, and the increased systematic uncertainties assumed due to the single band coverage. Even when tripling the already worse systematic uncertainties in the Roman wide scenarios, which reduces the 10,000 square degree FoM from 269 to 178, we find that the larger survey area is still significantly preferred over the reference survey (FoM 64). We conclude that for the specific analysis choices and metrics of this paper, a Roman wide survey is unlikely to be systematics-limited (in the sense that one saturates the improvement that can be obtained by increasing survey area). We outline several specific implementations of a two-tier Roman survey (1000 square degree with 4 bands, and a second wide tier in one band) that can further mitigate the risk of systematics for Roman wide concepts.

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arXiv2024

Impact of cosmology dependence of baryonic feedback in weak lensing

Robust modeling of non-linear scales is critical for accurate cosmological inference in Stage IV surveys. For weak lensing analyses in particular, a key challenge arises from the incomplete understanding of how non-gravitational processes, such as supernovae and active galactic nuclei - collectively known as baryonic feedback - affect the matter distribution. Several existing methods for modeling baryonic feedback treat it independently from the underlying cosmology, an assumption which has been found to be inaccurate by hydrodynamical simulations. In this work, we examine the impact of this coupling between baryonic feedback and cosmology on parameter inference at LSST Y1 precision. We build mock 3$\times$2pt data vectors using the Magneticum suite of hydrodynamical simulations, which span a wide range of cosmologies while keeping subgrid parameters fixed. We perform simulated likelihood analyses for two baryon mitigation techniques: (i) the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method which identifies eigenmodes for capturing the effect baryonic feedback on the data vector and (ii) HMCode2020 (Mead et al. 2021) which analytically models the modification in the matter distribution using a halo model approach. Our results show that the PCA method is robust to the coupling between cosmology and baryonic feedback, whereas, when using HMCode2020 there can be up to $0.5σ$ bias in $Ω_\text{m}$-$S_8$. For HMCode2020, the bias also correlates with the input cosmology while for PCA we find no such correlation.

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arXiv2024

Kinematic Lensing Inference II: Cluster Lensing with $\mathcal{O}$(1) Galaxies

We present the first detection of a cluster lensing signal with `Kinematic Lensing' (KL), a novel weak lensing method that combines photometry, spectroscopy, and the Tully-Fisher relation to enable shear measurements with individual source galaxies. This is the second paper in a two-part series aimed at measuring a KL signal from data. The first paper, arXiv:2209.11811, describes the inference pipeline, which jointly forward models galaxy imaging and spectroscopy, and demonstrates unbiased shear inference with simulated data. This paper presents measurements of the lensing signal from the galaxy cluster Abell 2261. We obtain spectroscopic observations of background disk galaxies in the cluster field selected from the CLASH Subaru catalog. The final sample consists of three source galaxies while the remaining are rejected due to insufficient signal-to-noise, spectroscopic failures, and inadequately sampled rotation curves. We apply the KL inference pipeline to the three sources and find the shear estimates to be in broad agreement with traditional weak lensing measurements. The typical shear measurement uncertainty for our sources is $σ(g_+)\approx 0.026$, which represents approximately a ten-fold improvement over the weak lensing shape noise. We identify target selection and observing strategy as the key avenues of improvement for future KL programs.

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arXiv2024

Kinematic Lensing with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument -- Probing structure formation at very low redshift

We explore the science prospects of a 14,000 deg$^2$ Kinematic Lensing (KL) survey with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and overlapping imaging surveys. KL infers the cosmic shear signal by jointly forward modeling the observed photometric image and velocity field of a disk galaxy. The latter can be constrained by placing multiple DESI fibers along the galaxy's major and minor axis, a concept similar to the DESI Peculiar Velocity Survey. We study multiple subset galaxy samples of the DESI Legacy Survey Data Release 9 catalog and quantify the residual shape noise, $σ_ε$, of each sample as a function of cuts in $r$-band magnitude using mock observations. We conduct simulated likelihood analyses for these galaxy samples and find that a DESI-KL program can place highly interesting constraints on structure formation at very low redshifts, i.e. $σ_8(z<0.15)$. We conclude that if the $S_8$ tension consolidates as a phenomenon, a DESI-KL survey can provide unique insights into this phenomenon in the very late-time Universe. Given the different footprints of DESI and Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), lensing results from both surveys are highly complementary and can be combined into a joint lensing survey. We further note that DESI-KL benefits multiple additional science cases, e.g. studies of modified gravity models when combined with peculiar velocity surveys, and dark matter studies that are based on galaxy-galaxy lensing of dwarf galaxies.

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arXiv2024

SPHEREx: NASA's Near-Infrared Spectrophotmetric All-Sky Survey

SPHEREx, the Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch of Reionization, and ices Explorer, is a NASA MIDEX mission planned for launch in 2024. SPHEREx will carry out the first all-sky spectral survey at wavelengths between 0.75 micron and 5 micron with spectral resolving power ~40 between 0.75 and 3.8 micron and ~120 between 3.8 and 5 micron At the end of its two-year mission, SPHEREx will provide 0.75-to-5 micron spectra of each 6.2"x6.2" pixel on the sky - 14 billion spectra in all. This paper updates an earlier description of SPHEREx presenting changes made during the mission's Preliminary Design Phase, including a discussion of instrument integration and test and a summary of the data processing, analysis, and distribution plans.

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arXiv2024

Attention-Based Neural Network Emulators for Multi-Probe Data Vectors Part II: Assessing Tension Metrics

The next generation of cosmological surveys is expected to generate unprecedented high-quality data, consequently increasing the already substantial computational costs of Bayesian statistical methods. This will pose a significant challenge to analyzing theoretical models of cosmology. Additionally, new mitigation techniques of baryonic effects, intrinsic alignment, and other systematic effects will inevitably introduce more parameters, slowing down the convergence of Bayesian analyses. In this scenario, machine-learning-based accelerators are a promising solution, capable of reducing the computational costs and execution time of such tools by order of thousands. Yet, they have not been able to provide accurate predictions over the wide prior ranges in parameter space adopted by Stage III/IV collaborations in studies employing real-space two-point correlation functions. This paper offers a leap in this direction by carefully investigating the modern transformer-based neural network (NN) architectures in realistic simulated Rubin Observatory year one cosmic shear $Λ$CDM inferences. Building on the framework introduced in Part I, we generalize the transformer block and incorporate additional layer types to develop a more versatile architecture. We present a scalable method to efficiently generate an extensive training dataset that significantly exceeds the scope of prior volumes considered in Part I, while still meeting strict accuracy standards. Through our meticulous architecture comparison and comprehensive hyperparameter optimization, we establish that the attention-based architecture performs an order of magnitude better in accuracy than widely adopted NN designs. Finally, we test and apply our emulators to calibrate tension metrics.

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arXiv2024

Machine Learning LSST 3x2pt analyses -- forecasting the impact of systematics on cosmological constraints using neural networks

Validating modeling choices through simulated analyses and quantifying the impact of different systematic effects will form a major computational bottleneck in the preparation for 3$\times$2 analysis with Stage-IV surveys such as Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We can significantly reduce the computational requirements by using machine learning based emulators, which allow us to run fast inference while maintaining the full realism of the data analysis pipeline. In this paper, we use such an emulator to run simulated 3$\times$2 (cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering) analyses for mock LSST-Y1/Y3/Y6/Y10 surveys and study the impact of various systematic effects (galaxy bias, intrinsic alignment, baryonic physics, shear calibration and photo-$z$ uncertainties). Closely following the DESC Science Requirement Document (with several updates) our main findings are: {\it a)} The largest contribution to the `systematic error budget' of LSST 3$\times$2 analysis comes from galaxy bias uncertainties, while the contribution of baryonic and shear calibration uncertainties are significantly less important. {\it b)} Tighter constraints on intrinsic alignment and photo-$z$ parameters can improve cosmological constraints noticeably, which illustrates synergies of LSST and spectroscopic surveys. {\it c)} The scale cuts adopted in the DESC SRD may be too conservative and pushing to smaller scales can increase cosmological information significantly. {\it d)} We investigate the impact of photo-$z$ outliers on 3$\times$2 pt analysis and find that we need to determine the outlier fraction to within $5-10\%$ accuracy to ensure robust cosmological analysis. We caution that these findings depend on analysis choices (parameterizations, priors, scale cuts) and can change for different settings.

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arXiv2024

Early dark energy constraints with late-time expansion marginalization

Early dark energy (EDE) is an extension to the $Λ$CDM model, proposed to reduce the tension between the measurements of the Hubble constant $H_0$ from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and from the local cosmic distance ladder. However, this model increases the $S_8$ tension between CMB and large scale structure measurements. Analyses of galaxy clustering and lensing correlation functions report a decreased preference for EDE and its effect on the Hubble tension. Smooth dark energy models affect growth of structure through the background expansion. In this work, we study the inclusion of a general, smooth late-time dark energy modification in combination with EDE and obtain constraints on EDE marginalized over the late-time expansion. We assess the impact on the $S_8$ and Hubble tensions. In order to generalize the late expansion, we use a late dark energy fluid model with a piecewise constant equation of state $w(z)$ over 3, 5 and 10 redshift bins in the window $z \in [0,3]$. We show that, when analyzing ACT and Planck CMB data combined with Pantheon supernovae, BAO from 6dF, SDSS and BOSS, Planck 2018 CMB lensing and Dark Energy Survey cosmic shear and clustering data, the inclusion of a general smooth dark energy modification at late times has no significant effect on $S_8$ and EDE parameter constraints. Using the aforementioned datasets, the EDE fraction constraint with late-time expansion marginalization is $f_\mathrm{EDE} = 0.067^{+0.019}_{-0.027}$ using 3 redshift bins, with similar results for 5 and 10 redshift bins. This work shows that in order to solve simultaneously the Hubble and $S_8$ tensions, one needs a mechanism for increasing the clustering of matter at late times different from a simple change in the background evolution of late dark energy. [Abridged]

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arXiv2024

Attention-based Neural Network Emulators for Multi-Probe Data Vectors Part I: Forecasting the Growth-Geometry split

We present a new class of machine-learning emulators that accurately model the cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering real space correlation functions in the context of Rubin Observatory year one simulated data. To illustrate its capabilities in forecasting models beyond the standard $Λ$CDM, we forecast how well LSST Year 1 data will be able to probe the consistency between geometry $Ω^{\rm geo}_\mathrm{m}$ and growth $Ω^{\rm growth}_\mathrm{m}$ dark matter densities in the so-called split $Λ$CDM parameterization. When trained with a few million samples, our emulator shows uniform accuracy across a wide range in an 18-dimensional parameter space. We provide a detailed comparison of three neural network designs, illustrating the importance of adopting state-of-the-art Transformer blocks. Our study also details their performance when computing Bayesian evidence for cosmic shear on three fiducial cosmologies. The transformers-based emulator is always accurate within PolyChord's precision. As an application, we use our emulator to study the degeneracies between dark energy models and growth geometry split parameterizations. We find that the growth-geometry split remains to be a meaningful test of the smooth dark energy assumption.

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arXiv2024

Deciphering baryonic feedback with galaxy clusters

Upcoming cosmic shear analyses will precisely measure the cosmic matter distribution at low redshifts. At these redshifts, the matter distribution is affected by galaxy formation physics, primarily baryonic feedback from star formation and active galactic nuclei. Employing measurements from the Magneticum and IllustrisTNG simulations and a dark matter + baryon (DMB) halo model, this paper demonstrates that Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect observations of galaxy clusters, whose masses have been calibrated using weak gravitational lensing, can constrain the baryonic impact on cosmic shear with statistical and systematic errors subdominant to the measurement errors of DES-Y3 and LSST-Y1. We further dissect the contributions from different scales and halos with different masses to cosmic shear, highlighting the dominant role of SZ clusters at scales critical for cosmic shear analyses. These findings suggest a promising avenue for future joint analyses of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and lensing surveys.

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arXiv2023

Cosmology from weak lensing, galaxy clustering, CMB lensing and tSZ: I. 10x2pt Modelling Methodology

The overlap of galaxy surveys and CMB experiments presents an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological dataset analyses. In this paper we develop a halo-model-based method for the first joint analysis combining these two experiments using 10 correlated two-point functions (10x2pt) derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, CMB lensing convergence, and Compton-y fields. We explore this method using the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) as examples. We find such LSSxCMB joint analyses lead to significant improvement in Figure-of-Merit of $Ω_m$ and $S_8$ over the constraints from using LSS-only probes within $Λ$CDM. We identify that the shear-$y$ and $y$-$y$ correlations are the most valuable additions when tSZ is included. We further identify the dominant sources of halo model uncertainties in the small-scale modelling, and investigate the impact of halo self-calibration due to the inclusion of small-scale tSZ information.

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arXiv2023

Measuring $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ with the SPHEREx Multi-tracer Redshift Space Bispectrum

The bispectrum is an important statistics helpful for measuring the primordial non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ to less than order unity in error, which would allow us to distinguish between single and multi-field inflation models. The Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch of Reionization and Ices Explorer (SPHEREx) mission is particularly well-suited for making this measurement with its $\sim$100-band all-sky observations in the near-infrared. Consequently, the SPHEREx data will contain galaxies with spectroscopic-like redshift measurements as well as those with much larger errors. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of photometric redshift errors on $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ constraints in the context of an updated multi-tracer forecast for SPHEREx, finding that the azimuthal averages of the first three even bispectrum multipoles are no longer sufficient for capturing most of the information (as opposed to the case of spectroscopic surveys shown in the literature). The final SPHEREx result with all five galaxy samples and six redshift bins is however not severely impacted because the total result is dominated by the samples with the best redshift errors, while the worse samples serve to reduce cosmic variance. Our fiducial result of $σ_{f_{\mathrm{NL}}} = 0.7$ from bispectrum alone is increased by $18\%$ and $3\%$ when using $l_{\mathrm{max}}=0$ and 2 respectively. We also explore the impact on parameter constraints when varying the fiducial redshift errors, as well as using subsets of multi-tracer combinations or triangles with different squeezing factors. Note that the fiducial result here is not the final SPHEREx capability, which is still on target for being $σ_{f_{\mathrm{NL}}} = 0.5$ once the power spectrum will be included.

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arXiv2023

Constraining Baryonic Physics with DES Y1 and Planck data -- Combining Galaxy Clustering, Weak Lensing, and CMB Lensing

We constrain cosmology and baryonic feedback scenarios with a joint analysis of weak lensing, galaxy clustering, cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, and their cross-correlations (so-called 6$\times$2) using data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y1 and the Planck satellite mission. Noteworthy features of our 6$\times$2 pipeline are: We extend CMB lensing cross-correlation measurements to a band surrounding the DES Y1 footprint (a $\sim 25\%$ gain in pairs), and we develop analytic covariance capabilities that account for different footprints and all cross-terms in the 6$\times$2 analysis. We also measure the DES Y1 cosmic shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) down to $0.^\prime 25$, but find that going below $2.^\prime 5$ does not increase cosmological information due to shape noise. We model baryonic physics uncertainties via the amplitude of Principal Components (PCs) derived from a set of hydro-simulations. Given our statistical uncertainties, varying the first PC amplitude $Q_1$ is sufficient to model small-scale cosmic shear 2PCF. For DES Y1+Planck 6$\times$2 we find $S_8=0.799\pm0.016$, comparable to the 5$\times$2 result of DES Y3+SPT/Planck $S_8=0.773\pm0.016$. Combined with our most informative cosmology priors -- baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and Planck 2018 EE+lowE, we measure $S_8=0.817\pm 0.011$. Regarding baryonic physics constraints, our 6$\times$2 analysis finds $Q_1=2.8\pm1.8$. Combined with the aforementioned priors, it improves the constraint to $Q_1=3.5\pm1.3$. For comparison, the strongest feedback scenario considered in this paper, the cosmo-OWLS AGN ($ΔT_\mathrm{heat}=10^{8.7}$ K), corresponds to $Q_1=5.84$.

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arXiv2023

Role of the Hubble Scale in the Weak Lensing vs. CMB Tension

We explore a re-parameterization of the lensing amplitude tension between weak lensing (WL) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and its implications for a joint resolution with the Hubble tension. Specifically, we focus on the lensing amplitude over a scale of 12 Mpc in absolute distance units using a derived parameter $S_{12}$ and show its constraints from recent surveys in comparison with Planck 2018. In WL alone, we find that the absolute distance convention correlates $S_{12}$ with $H_0$. Accounting for this correlation in the 3D space $S_{12}\times ω_m \times h$ reproduces the usual levels of $2\sim 3σ$ tension inferred from $S_8\timesΩ_m$. Additionally, we derive scaling relations in the $S_8\times h$ and $S_{12}\times h$ planes that are allowed by $Λ$CDM and extrapolate target scalings needed to solve the $H_0$ and lensing-amplitude tensions jointly in a hypothetical beyond-$Λ$CDM model. As a test example, we quantify how the early dark energy scenario compares with these target scalings. Useful fitting formulae for $S_8$ and $S_{12}$ as a function of other cosmological parameters in $Λ$CDM are provided, with 1% precision.

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arXiv2023

Towards optimal and robust $f_{\rm NL}$ constraints with multi-tracer analyses

We discuss the potential of the multi-tracer technique to improve observational constraints of the local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ from the galaxy power spectrum. For two galaxy samples $A$ and $B$, the constraining power is $\propto |b_1^B b_ϕ^A - b_1^Ab_ϕ^B|$, where $b_1$ and $b_ϕ$ are the linear and PNG galaxy bias parameters. We show this allows for significantly improved constraints compared to the traditional expectation $\propto |b_1^A - b_1^B|$ based on naive universality-like relations where $b_ϕ\propto b_1$. Using IllustrisTNG galaxy simulation data, we find that different equal galaxy number splits of the full sample lead to different $|b_1^B b_ϕ^A - b_1^Ab_ϕ^B|$, and thus have different constraining power. Of all of the strategies explored, splitting by $g-r$ color is the most promising, more than doubling the significance of detecting $f_{\rm NL}b_ϕ\neq 0$. Importantly, since these are constraints on $f_{\rm NL}b_ϕ$ and not $f_{\rm NL}$, they do not require priors on the $b_ϕ(b_1)$ relation. For direct constraints on $f_{\rm NL}$, we show that multi-tracer constraints can be significantly more robust than single-tracer to $b_ϕ$ misspecifications and uncertainties; this relaxes the precision and accuracy requirements for $b_ϕ$ priors. Our results present new opportunities to improve our chances to detect and robustly constrain $f_{\rm NL}$, and strongly motivate galaxy formation simulation campaigns to calibrate the $b_ϕ(b_1)$ relation.

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