arXiv subjects

Elisabeth Ullmann

Publications and source records attributed to Elisabeth Ullmann.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Error bounds for approximate posteriors from likelihood-informed reduced-order models

In the design of computational methods for Bayesian inverse problems, costly forward model evaluations make it difficult to sample from or compute the posterior. This motivates the need for approximate forward models that are cheaper to evaluate. We consider reduced-order forward models which exploit the lower-dimensional structure in the Bayesian inverse problem by projecting to the "likelihood-informed subspace" of the parameter space where the prior-to-posterior update is significant. However, the theoretical properties of these reduced-order forward models and their impact on the solution of the Baysian inverse problem are not always well-understood. In this work we consider linear Gaussian inverse problems with a possibly singular prior covariance matrix. We analyse a recently proposed reduced-order model which uses a Petrov-Galerkin projection to likelihood-informed subspaces that arise in optimal low-rank approximations of the posterior covariance matrix. We bound the error in the resulting approximation of the root prior-preconditioned Hessian of the data misfit. Based on this we also bound the errors of the approximate posterior covariance and mean. Our analysis shows that this reduced-order model recovers the exact posterior when the rank of the reduced-order model is equal to the "intrinsic dimension" of the inverse problem, i.e. the rank of the prior-preconditioned Hessian. Two numerical experiments from structural engineering illustrate the performance of our bounds.

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arXiv2025

Likelihood-informed Model Reduction for Bayesian Inference of Static Structural Loads

Bayesian inverse problems use data to update a prior probability distribution on uncertain parameter values to a posterior distribution. Such problems arise in many structural engineering applications, but computational solution of Bayesian inverse problems is often expensive because standard solution approaches require many evaluations of the forward model mapping the parameter value to predicted observations. In many settings, this forward model is expensive because it requires the solution of a high-dimensional discretization of a partial differential equation. However, Bayesian inverse problems often exhibit low-dimensional structure because the available data are primarily informative (relative to the prior) in a low-dimensional subspace, sometimes called the likelihood-informed subspace (LIS). This paper proposes a new projection-based model reduction method for static linear systems that exploits this low-dimensional structure in the setting where the unknown parameter is the right-hand-side forcing, giving rise to a linear inverse problem. The proposed method projects the governing partial differential equation onto the likelihood-informed subspace, yielding a computationally efficient reduced model that can be used to accelerate the solution of the inverse problem and subsequent downstream computations. Numerical experiments on two structural engineering model problems demonstrate that the proposed approach can successfully exploit the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the problem, obtaining relative errors in O(10^{-10}) in the inverse problem solution with a 10x and 100x lower-dimensional model, respectively.

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arXiv2025

Neural Network Localized Orthogonal Decomposition for Numerical Homogenization of Diffusion Operators with Random Coefficients

This paper presents a neural network--enhanced surrogate modeling approach for diffusion problems with spatially varying random field coefficients. The method builds on numerical homogenization, which compresses fine-scale coefficients into coarse-scale surrogates without requiring periodicity. To overcome computational bottlenecks, we train a neural network to map fine-scale coefficient samples to effective coarse-scale information, enabling the construction of accurate surrogates at the target resolution. This framework allows for the fast and efficient compression of new coefficient realizations, thereby ensuring reliable coarse models and supporting scalable computations for large ensembles of random coefficients. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through systematic numerical experiments for two classes of coefficients, emphasizing the influence of coefficient contrast: (i) lognormal diffusion coefficients, a standard model for uncertain subsurface structures in geophysics, and (ii) hierarchical Gaussian random fields with random correlation lengths.

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arXiv2024

Uncertainty quantification analysis of bifurcations of the Allen--Cahn equation with random coefficients

In this work we consider the Allen--Cahn equation, a prototypical model problem in nonlinear dynamics that exhibits bifurcations corresponding to variations of a deterministic bifurcation parameter. Going beyond the state-of-the-art, we introduce a random coefficient in the linear reaction part of the equation, thereby accounting for random, spatially-heterogeneous effects. Importantly, we assume a spatially constant, deterministic mean value of the random coefficient. We show that this mean value is in fact a bifurcation parameter in the Allen--Cahn equation with random coefficients. Moreover, we show that the bifurcation points and bifurcation curves become random objects. We consider two distinct modelling situations: (i) for a spatially homogeneous coefficient we derive analytical expressions for the distribution of the bifurcation points and show that the bifurcation curves are random shifts of a fixed reference curve; (ii) for a spatially heterogeneous coefficient we employ a generalized polynomial chaos expansion to approximate the statistical properties of the random bifurcation points and bifurcation curves. We present numerical examples in 1D physical space, where we combine the popular software package Continuation Core and Toolboxes (CoCo) for numerical continuation and the Sparse Grids Matlab Kit for the polynomial chaos expansion. Our exposition addresses both, dynamical systems and uncertainty quantification, highlighting how analytical and numerical tools from both areas can be combined efficiently for the challenging uncertainty quantification analysis of bifurcations in random differential equations.

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arXiv2023

Consensus-based rare event estimation

In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting particles. The particle dynamics is governed by a McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation, which was introduced and analyzed in (Carrillo et al., Stud. Appl. Math. 148:1069-1140, 2022) for consensus-based sampling and optimization of posterior distributions arising in the context of Bayesian inverse problems. We develop automatic updates for the internal parameters of our algorithm. This includes a novel time step size controller for the exponential Euler method, which discretizes the particle dynamics. The behavior of all parameter updates depends on easy to interpret accuracy criteria specified by the user. We show in numerical experiments that our method is competitive to state-of-the-art adaptive importance sampling algorithms for rare event estimation, namely a sequential importance sampling method and the ensemble Kalman filter for rare event estimation.

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arXiv2021

The ensemble Kalman filter for rare event estimation

We present a novel sampling-based method for estimating probabilities of rare or failure events. Our approach is founded on the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for inverse problems. Therefore, we reformulate the rare event problem as an inverse problem and apply the EnKF to generate failure samples. To estimate the probability of failure, we use the final EnKF samples to fit a distribution model and apply Importance Sampling with respect to the fitted distribution. This leads to an unbiased estimator if the density of the fitted distribution admits positive values within the whole failure domain. To handle multi-modal failure domains, we localise the covariance matrices in the EnKF update step around each particle and fit a mixture distribution model in the Importance Sampling step. For affine linear limit-state functions, we investigate the continuous-time limit and large time properties of the EnKF update. We prove that the mean of the particles converges to a convex combination of the most likely failure point and the mean of the optimal Importance Sampling density if the EnKF is applied without noise. We provide numerical experiments to compare the performance of the EnKF with Sequential Importance Sampling.

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arXiv2021

EP-PINNs: Cardiac Electrophysiology Characterisation using Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Accurately inferring underlying electrophysiological (EP) tissue properties from action potential recordings is expected to be clinically useful in the diagnosis and treatment of arrhythmias such as atrial fibrillation, but it is notoriously difficult to perform. We present EP-PINNs (Physics-Informed Neural Networks), a novel tool for accurate action potential simulation and EP parameter estimation, from sparse amounts of EP data. We demonstrate, using 1D and 2D in silico data, how EP-PINNs are able to reconstruct the spatio-temporal evolution of action potentials, whilst predicting parameters related to action potential duration (APD), excitability and diffusion coefficients. EP-PINNs are additionally able to identify heterogeneities in EP properties, making them potentially useful for the detection of fibrosis and other localised pathology linked to arrhythmias. Finally, we show EP-PINNs effectiveness on biological in vitro preparations, by characterising the effect of anti-arrhythmic drugs on APD using optical mapping data. EP-PINNs are a promising clinical tool for the characterisation and potential treatment guidance of arrhythmias.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2021

Error analysis for probabilities of rare events with approximate models

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit-state function, which depends on the solution of a partial differential equation (PDE). In many applications, the PDE cannot be solved analytically. We can only evaluate an approximation of the exact PDE solution. Therefore, the probability of rare events is estimated with respect to an approximation of the limit-state function. This leads to an approximation error in the estimate of the probability of rare events. Indeed, we prove an error bound for the approximation error of the probability of failure, which behaves like the discretization accuracy of the PDE multiplied by an approximation of the probability of failure, the first order reliability method (FORM) estimate. This bound requires convexity of the failure domain. For non-convex failure domains, we prove an error bound for the relative error of the FORM estimate. Hence, we derive a relationship between the required accuracy of the probability of rare events estimate and the PDE discretization level. This relationship can be used to guide practicable reliability analyses and, for instance, multilevel methods.

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arXiv2020

Asymptotic Analysis of Multilevel Best Linear Unbiased Estimators

We study the computational complexity and variance of multilevel best linear unbiased estimators introduced in [D. Schaden and E. Ullmann, SIAM/ASA J. Uncert. Quantif., (2020)]. We specialize the results in this work to PDE-based models that are parameterized by a discretization quantity, e.g., the finite element mesh size. In particular, we investigate the asymptotic complexity of the so-called sample allocation optimal best linear unbiased estimators (SAOBs). These estimators have the smallest variance given a fixed computational budget. However, SAOBs are defined implicitly by solving an optimization problem and are difficult to analyze. Alternatively, we study a class of auxiliary estimators based on the Richardson extrapolation of the parametric model family. This allows us to provide an upper bound for the complexity of the SAOBs, showing that their complexity is optimal within a certain class of linear unbiased estimators. Moreover, the complexity of the SAOBs is not larger than the complexity of Multilevel Monte Carlo. The theoretical results are illustrated by numerical experiments with an elliptic PDE.

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arXiv2020

Certified and fast computations with shallow covariance kernels

Many techniques for data science and uncertainty quantification demand efficient tools to handle Gaussian random fields, which are defined in terms of their mean functions and covariance operators. Recently, parameterized Gaussian random fields have gained increased attention, due to their higher degree of flexibility. However, especially if the random field is parameterized through its covariance operator, classical random field discretization techniques fail or become inefficient. In this work we introduce and analyze a new and certified algorithm for the low-rank approximation of a parameterized family of covariance operators which represents an extension of the adaptive cross approximation method for symmetric positive definite matrices. The algorithm relies on an affine linear expansion of the covariance operator with respect to the parameters, which needs to be computed in a preprocessing step using, e.g., the empirical interpolation method. We discuss and test our new approach for isotropic covariance kernels, such as Matérn kernels. The numerical results demonstrate the advantages of our approach in terms of computational time and confirm that the proposed algorithm provides the basis of a fast sampling procedure for parameter dependent Gaussian random fields.

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arXiv2020

Multilevel Sequential Importance Sampling for Rare Event Estimation

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial differential equation (PDE). Since numerical evaluations of PDEs are computationally expensive, estimating such probabilities of failure by Monte Carlo sampling is intractable. More efficient sampling methods from reliability analysis, such as Subset Simulation, are popular, but can still be impracticable if the PDE evaluations are very costly. In this article, we develop a novel, highly efficient estimator for probabilities of rare events. Our method is based on a Sequential Importance sampler using discretizations of PDE-based limit state functions with different accuracies. A twofold adaptive algorithm ensures that we obtain an estimate based on the desired discretization accuracy. In contrast to the Multilevel Subset Simulation estimator of [Ullmann, Papaioannou 2015; SIAM/ASA J. Uncertain. Quantif. 3(1):922-953], our estimator overcomes the nestedness problem. Of particular importance in Sequential Importance sampling algorithms is the correct choice of the MCMC kernel. Instead of the popular adaptive conditional sampling method, we propose a new algorithm that uses independent proposals from an adaptively constructed von Mises-Fischer-Nakagami distribution. The proposed algorithm is applied to test problems in 1D and 2D space, respectively, and is compared to the Multilevel Subset Simulation estimator and to single-level versions of Sequential Importance Sampling and Subset Simulation.

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arXiv2019

Multilevel adaptive sparse Leja approximations for Bayesian inverse problems

Deterministic interpolation and quadrature methods are often unsuitable to address Bayesian inverse problems depending on computationally expensive forward mathematical models. While interpolation may give precise posterior approximations, deterministic quadrature is usually unable to efficiently investigate an informative and thus concentrated likelihood. This leads to a large number of required expensive evaluations of the mathematical model. To overcome these challenges, we formulate and test a multilevel adaptive sparse Leja algorithm. At each level, adaptive sparse grid interpolation and quadrature are used to approximate the posterior and perform all quadrature operations, respectively. Specifically, our algorithm uses coarse discretizations of the underlying mathematical model to investigate the parameter space and to identify areas of high posterior probability. Adaptive sparse grid algorithms are then used to place points in these areas, and ignore other areas of small posterior probability. The points are weighted Leja points. As the model discretization is coarse, the construction of the sparse grid is computationally efficient. On this sparse grid, the posterior measure can be approximated accurately with few expensive, fine model discretizations. The efficiency of the algorithm can be enhanced further by exploiting more than two discretization levels. We apply the proposed multilevel adaptive sparse Leja algorithm in numerical experiments involving elliptic inverse problems in 2D and 3D space, in which we compare it with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and a standard multilevel approximation.

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arXiv2018

Fast sampling of parameterised Gaussian random fields

Gaussian random fields are popular models for spatially varying uncertainties, arising for instance in geotechnical engineering, hydrology or image processing. A Gaussian random field is fully characterised by its mean function and covariance operator. In more complex models these can also be partially unknown. In this case we need to handle a family of Gaussian random fields indexed with hyperparameters. Sampling for a fixed configuration of hyperparameters is already very expensive due to the nonlocal nature of many classical covariance operators. Sampling from multiple configurations increases the total computational cost severely. In this report we employ parameterised Karhunen-Loève expansions for sampling. To reduce the cost we construct a reduced basis surrogate built from snapshots of Karhunen-Loève eigenvectors. In particular, we consider Matérn-type covariance operators with unknown correlation length and standard deviation. We suggest a linearisation of the covariance function and describe the associated online-offline decomposition. In numerical experiments we investigate the approximation error of the reduced eigenpairs. As an application we consider forward uncertainty propagation and Bayesian inversion with an elliptic partial differential equation where the logarithm of the diffusion coefficient is a parameterised Gaussian random field. In the Bayesian inverse problem we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo on the reduced space to generate samples from the posterior measure. All numerical experiments are conducted in 2D physical space, with non-separable covariance operators, and finite element grids with $\sim 10^4$ degrees of freedom.

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arXiv2018

Analysis of boundary effects on PDE-based sampling of Whittle-Mat\'ern random fields

We consider the generation of samples of a mean-zero Gaussian random field with Mat\'ern covariance function. Every sample requires the solution of a differential equation with Gaussian white noise forcing, formulated on a bounded computational domain. This introduces unwanted boundary effects since the stochastic partial differential equation is originally posed on the whole $\mathbb{R}^d$, without boundary conditions. We use a window technique, whereby one embeds the computational domain into a larger domain, and postulates convenient boundary conditions on the extended domain. To mitigate the pollution from the artificial boundary it has been suggested in numerical studies to choose a window size that is at least as large as the correlation length of the Mat\'ern field. We provide a rigorous analysis for the error in the covariance introduced by the window technique, for homogeneous Dirichlet, homogeneous Neumann, and periodic boundary conditions. We show that the error decays exponentially in the window size, independently of the type of boundary condition. We conduct numerical experiments in 1D and 2D space, confirming our theoretical results.

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arXiv2018

A practical example for the non-linear Bayesian filtering of model parameters

In this tutorial we consider the non-linear Bayesian filtering of static parameters in a time-dependent model. We outline the theoretical background and discuss appropriate solvers. We focus on particle-based filters and present Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Throughout the paper we illustrate the concepts and techniques with a practical example using real-world data. The task is to estimate the gravitational acceleration of the Earth $g$ by using observations collected from a simple pendulum. Importantly, the particle filters enable the adaptive updating of the estimate for $g$ as new observations become available. For tutorial purposes we provide the data set and a Python implementation of the particle filters.

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arXiv2018

Bayesian parameter identification in Cahn-Hilliard models for biological growth

We consider the inverse problem of parameter estimation in a diffuse interface model for tumour growth. The model consists of a fourth-order Cahn-Hilliard system and contains three phenomenological parameters: the tumour proliferation rate, the nutrient consumption rate, and the chemotactic sensitivity. We study the inverse problem within the Bayesian framework and construct the likelihood and noise for two typical observation settings. One setting involves an infinite-dimensional data space where we observe the full tumour. In the second setting we observe only the tumour volume, hence the data space is finite-dimensional. We show the well-posedness of the posterior measure for both settings, building upon and improving the analytical results in [C. Kahle and K.F. Lam, Appl. Math. Optim. (2018)]. A numerical example involving synthetic data is presented in which the posterior measure is numerically approximated by the sequential Monte Carlo approach with tempering.

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arXiv2018

Multilevel Sequential${}^2$ Monte Carlo for Bayesian Inverse Problems

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior information to estimate the posterior distribution of a parameter. Specifically, we are interested in the distribution of a diffusion coefficient of an elliptic PDE. In this setting, the sample space is high-dimensional, and each sample of the PDE solution is expensive. To address these issues we propose and analyse a novel Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the approximation of the posterior distribution. Classical, single-level SMC constructs a sequence of measures, starting with the prior distribution, and finishing with the posterior distribution. The intermediate measures arise from a tempering of the likelihood, or, equivalently, a rescaling of the noise. The resolution of the PDE discretisation is fixed. In contrast, our estimator employs a hierarchy of PDE discretisations to decrease the computational cost. We construct a sequence of intermediate measures by decreasing the temperature or by increasing the discretisation level at the same time. This idea builds on and generalises the multi-resolution sampler proposed in [P.S. Koutsourelakis, J. Comput. Phys., 228 (2009), pp. 6184-6211] where a bridging scheme is used to transfer samples from coarse to fine discretisation levels. Importantly, our choice between tempering and bridging is fully adaptive. We present numerical experiments in 2D space, comparing our estimator to single-level SMC and the multi-resolution sampler.

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arXiv2016

Multilevel Monte Carlo analysis for optimal control of elliptic PDEs with random coefficients

This work is motivated by the need to study the impact of data uncertainties and material imperfections on the solution to optimal control problems constrained by partial differential equations. We consider a pathwise optimal control problem constrained by a diffusion equation with random coefficient together with box constraints for the control. For each realization of the diffusion coefficient we solve an optimal control problem using the variational discretization [M. Hinze, Comput. Optim. Appl., 30 (2005), pp. 45-61]. Our framework allows for lognormal coefficients whose realizations are not uniformly bounded away from zero and infinity. We establish finite element error bounds for the pathwise optimal controls. This analysis is nontrivial due to the limited spatial regularity and the lack of uniform ellipticity and boundedness of the diffusion operator. We apply the error bounds to prove convergence of a multilevel Monte Carlo estimator for the expected value of the pathwise optimal controls. In addition we analyze the computational complexity of the multilevel estimator. We perform numerical experiments in 2D space to confirm the convergence result and the complexity bound.

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