arXiv subjects

Elise F. Zipkin

Publications and source records attributed to Elise F. Zipkin.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

spAbundance: An R package for single-species and multi-species spatially explicit abundance models

Numerous modeling techniques exist to estimate abundance of plant and wildlife species. These methods seek to estimate abundance while accounting for multiple complexities found in ecological data, such as observational biases, spatial autocorrelation, and species correlations. There is, however, a lack of user-friendly and computationally efficient software to implement the various models, particularly for large data sets. We developed the spAbundance R package for fitting spatially-explicit Bayesian single-species and multi-species hierarchical distance sampling models, N-mixture models, and generalized linear mixed models. The models within the package can account for spatial autocorrelation using Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Processes and accommodate species correlations in multi-species models using a latent factor approach, which enables model fitting for data sets with large numbers of sites and/or species. We provide three vignettes and three case studies that highlight spAbundance functionality. We used spatially-explicit multi-species distance sampling models to estimate density of 16 bird species in Florida, USA, an N-mixture model to estimate Black-throated Blue Warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) abundance in New Hampshire, USA, and a spatial linear mixed model to estimate forest aboveground biomass across the continental USA. spAbundance provides a user-friendly, formula-based interface to fit a variety of univariate and multivariate spatially-explicit abundance models. The package serves as a useful tool for ecologists and conservation practitioners to generate improved inference and predictions on the spatial drivers of populations and communities.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Modeling complex species-environment relationships through spatially-varying coefficient occupancy models

Occupancy models are frequently used by ecologists to quantify spatial variation in species distributions while accounting for observational biases in the collection of detection-nondetection data. However, the common assumption that a single set of regression coefficients can adequately explain species-environment relationships is often unrealistic, especially across large spatial domains. Here we develop single-species (i.e., univariate) and multi-species (i.e., multivariate) spatially-varying coefficient (SVC) occupancy models to account for spatially-varying species-environment relationships. We employ Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Processes and Polya-Gamma data augmentation in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to yield computationally efficient Gibbs samplers, which we implement in the spOccupancy R package. For multi-species models, we use spatial factor dimension reduction to efficiently model datasets with large numbers of species (e.g., > 10). The hierarchical Bayesian framework readily enables generation of posterior predictive maps of the SVCs, with fully propagated uncertainty. We apply our SVC models to quantify spatial variability in the relationships between maximum breeding season temperature and occurrence probability of 21 grassland bird species across the U.S. Jointly modeling species generally outperformed single-species models, which all revealed substantial spatial variability in species occurrence relationships with maximum temperatures. Our models are particularly relevant for quantifying species-environment relationships using detection-nondetection data from large-scale monitoring programs, which are becoming increasingly prevalent for answering macroscale ecological questions regarding wildlife responses to global change.

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arXiv2023

Guidelines for the use of spatially-varying coefficients in species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied across macroscales. Such models typically assume that a single set of regression coefficients can adequately describe species-environment relationships and/or population trends. However, such relationships often show nonlinear and/or spatially-varying patterns that arise from complex interactions with abiotic and biotic processes that operate at different scales. Spatially-varying coefficient (SVC) models can readily account for variability in the effects of environmental covariates. Yet, their use in ecology is relatively scarce due to gaps in understanding the inferential benefits that SVC models can provide compared to simpler frameworks. Here we demonstrate the inferential benefits of SVC SDMs, with a particular focus on how this approach can be used to generate and test ecological hypotheses regarding the drivers of spatial variability in population trends and species-environment relationships. We illustrate the inferential benefits of SVC SDMs with simulations and two case studies: one that assesses spatially-varying trends of 51 forest bird species in the eastern US over two decades and a second that evaluates spatial variability in the effects of five decades of land cover change on Grasshopper Sparrow occurrence across the continental US. We found strong support for SVC SDMs compared to simpler alternatives in both empirical case studies. These applications display the utility of SVC SDMs to help reveal the environmental factors that drive species distributions across both local and broad scales. We conclude by discussing the potential applications of SVC SDMs in ecology and conservation.

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arXiv2022

spOccupancy: An R package for single-species, multi-species, and integrated spatial occupancy models

Occupancy modeling is a common approach to assess spatial and temporal species distribution patterns, while explicitly accounting for measurement errors common in detection-nondetection data. Numerous extensions of the basic single species occupancy model exist to address dynamics, multiple species or states, interactions, false positive errors, autocorrelation, and to integrate multiple data sources. However, development of specialized and computationally efficient software to fit spatial models to large data sets is scarce or absent. We introduce the spOccupancy R package designed to fit single-species, multi-species, and integrated spatially-explicit occupancy models. Using a Bayesian framework, we leverage Pólya-Gamma data augmentation and Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Processes to ensure models are computationally efficient for potentially massive data sets. spOccupancy provides user-friendly functions for data simulation, model fitting, model validation (by posterior predictive checks), model comparison (using information criteria and k-fold cross-validation), and out-of-sample prediction. We illustrate the package's functionality via a vignette, simulated data analysis, and two bird case studies, in which we estimate occurrence of the Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens) across the eastern USA and species richness of a foliage-gleaning bird community in the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The spOccupancy package provides a user-friendly approach to fit a variety of single and multi-species occupancy models, making it straightforward to address detection biases and spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models even for large data sets.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Integrated community occupancy models: A framework to assess occurrence and biodiversity dynamics using multiple data sources

The occurrence and distributions of wildlife populations and communities are shifting as a result of global changes. To evaluate whether these shifts are negatively impacting biodiversity processes, it is critical to monitor the status, trends, and effects of environmental variables on entire communities. However, modeling the dynamics of multiple species simultaneously can require large amounts of diverse data, and few modeling approaches exist to simultaneously provide species and community level inferences. We present an "integrated community occupancy model" (ICOM) that unites principles of data integration and hierarchical community modeling in a single framework to provide inferences on species-specific and community occurrence dynamics using multiple data sources. We use simulations to compare the ICOM to previously developed hierarchical community occupancy models and single species integrated distribution models. We then apply our model to assess the occurrence and biodiversity dynamics of foliage-gleaning birds in the White Mountain National Forest in the northeastern USA from 2010-2018 using three independent data sources. Simulations reveal that integrating multiple data sources in the ICOM increased precision and accuracy of species and community level inferences compared to single data source models, although benefits of integration were dependent on data source quality (e.g., amount of replication). Compared to single species models, the ICOM yielded more precise species-level estimates. Within our case study, the ICOM had the highest out-of-sample predictive performance compared to single species models and models that used only a subset of the three data sources. The ICOM offers an attractive approach to estimate species and biodiversity dynamics, which is additionally valuable to inform management objectives of both individual species and their broader communities.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Trends in bird abundance differ among protected forests but not bird guilds

Improved monitoring and associated inferential tools to efficiently identify declining bird populations, particularly of rare or sparsely distributed species, is key to informed conservation and management across large spatio-temporal regions. We assess abundance trends for 106 bird species in a network of eight national park forests located within the northeast USA from 2006-2019 using a novel hierarchical model. We develop a multi-species, multi-region removal sampling model that shares information across species and parks to enable inference on rare species and sparsely sampled parks and to evaluate the effects of local forest structure. Trends in bird abundance over time varied widely across parks, but species showed similar trends within parks. Three parks (Acadia, Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller, and Morristown) decreased in bird abundance across all species, while three parks (Saratoga, Roosevelt-Vanderbilt, and Weir-Farm) increased in abundance. Bird abundance peaked at medium levels of basal area and high levels of percent forest and forest regeneration, with percent forest having the largest effect. Variation in these effects across parks could be a result of differences in forest structural stage and diversity. Our novel hierarchical model enables estimates of abundance at the network, park, guild, and species levels. We found large variation in abundance trends across parks but not across bird guilds, suggesting that local forest condition may have a broad and consistent effect on the entire bird community within a given park. Management should target the three parks with overall decreasing trends in bird abundance to further identify what specific factors are driving observed declines across the bird community. Understanding how bird communities respond to local forest structure and other stressors is crucial for informed and lasting management.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Integrating automated acoustic vocalization data and point count surveys for estimation of bird abundance

Monitoring wildlife abundance across space and time is an essential task to study their population dynamics and inform effective management. Acoustic recording units are a promising technology for efficiently monitoring bird populations and communities. We present an integrated modeling framework that combines high-quality but temporally sparse bird point count survey data with acoustic recordings. Using simulations, we compare the accuracy and precision of abundance estimates using differing amounts of acoustic vocalizations obtained from a clustering algorithm, point count data, and a subset of manually validated acoustic vocalizations. We also use our modeling framework in a case study to estimate abundance of the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens) in Vermont, U.S.A. The simulation study reveals that combining acoustic and point count data via an integrated model improves accuracy and precision of abundance estimates compared with models informed by either acoustic or point count data alone. Combining acoustic data with only a small number of point count surveys yields estimates of abundance without the need for validating any of the identified vocalizations from the acoustic data. Within our case study, the integrated models provided moderate support for a decline of the Eastern Wood-Pewee in this region. Our integrated modeling approach combines dense acoustic data with few point count surveys to deliver reliable estimates of species abundance without the need for manual identification of acoustic vocalizations or a prohibitively expensive large number of repeated point count surveys. Our proposed approach offers an efficient monitoring alternative for large spatio-temporal regions when point count data are difficult to obtain or when monitoring is focused on rare species with low detection probability.

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