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Elizabeth A. Silber

Publications and source records attributed to Elizabeth A. Silber.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Period-Inverted Blast-Radius Normalization for a Non-Ablating Hypersonic Reentry Source Using OSIRIS-REx Capsule Infrasound

Cylindrical blast wave theory relates infrasound from hypersonic sources to energy deposition through a characteristic blast radius R_0, yet the normalization constant k in the scaling R_0 = k (E_0/p_0)^(1/2) differs by up to 40% across the formulations examined here. This uncertainty affects period-based source characterization for elevated atmospheric sources relevant to infrasound monitoring. Using infrasound from the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023, observed periods at 39 stations spanning source altitudes of 44-62 km are inverted through a weak-shock propagation model to obtain period-inverted blast radii R_0,obs without prescribing a blast-wave normalization. Combining R_0,obs with aerodynamic drag energy yields a median k = 0.396, with a modified-bootstrap 95% interval of 0.378-0.474 when the reported period-measurement uncertainties are included. This result is consistent with the Sakurai (1965) and Jones et al. (1968)/Plooster (1970) normalizations, while Few (1969) lies outside the reference confidence interval. However, station-level k values exhibit significant along-trajectory structure (Spearman r_s = -0.84, p < 0.001), indicating that k_med is an ensemble-effective normalization rather than a station-invariant constant. The Mach-diameter approximation R_0 ~ M d_m overestimates R_0 by a factor of ~3.4 for this effectively non-ablating source. A period-based relation, R_0 = 23.99 tau - 0.73 (R^2 = 0.991, MAPE = 2.3%), provides a rapid blast-radius estimator whose residuals show no detectable altitude dependence. These results provide inverse calibration constraints and practical period-based source-characterization relations for OSIRIS-REx-like non-ablating hypersonic entries, while highlighting the need for multi-event validation before broader application.

physics.geo-ph

Altitude-Dependent Near-Source Spectral Filtering of Meteor Infrasound Above 80 km and Consequences for Period-Based Energy Estimates

Infrasound signal period is widely used as a proxy for source energy in bolide studies, but the reliability of period-yield relations for small, high-altitude regional meteors has not been systematically evaluated. We analyze 90 infrasound detections from well-constrained regional meteoroid events (source altitudes 20-111 km, ranges 47-268 km) and demonstrate a strong, monotonic decrease in receiver dominant frequency with increasing source altitude (Spearman r_{s} = -0.629, p = 3.3 x 10^11). No detections above 80 km retain dominant frequencies exceeding 3 Hz, and 75% of detections above 100 km are dominated by sub-1 Hz content. Partial correlation analysis indicates this is primarily an altitude effect, not a propagation distance artifact. Near-source dissipation modeling using the generalized Burgers equation supports a physical mechanism: the exponential increase in kinematic viscosity with altitude drives the acoustic Reynolds number downward, imposing frequency-dependent molecular absorption that selectively attenuates high-frequency content within the first 5 km below the source. Our results suggest that this atmospheric low-pass filter systematically modulates the observed period and can bias period-based energy estimates upward by one to two orders of magnitude for sources above 80-90 km when uncorrected period-yield relations are applied. These findings are relevant to any high-altitude infrasound source, including space debris and controlled reentries.

physics.ao-ph

Asteroid Disruption and Deflection Simulations for Multi-Modal Planetary Defense

Planetary defense from asteroids via deflective means alone does not offer viable solutions in terminal scenarios where there is little warning time before impact. The PI method of planetary defense enables operation in terminal interdiction modes where there is little warning time prior to impact, but can also operate in the same extended time scale interdiction modes as made possible by traditional deflection techniques, which results in a versatile, multi-modal planetary defense capability. The method is also practical and cost-effective since it relies solely on launch vehicles and penetrator materials already available today, and thus presents itself as a logical and competitive option for planetary defense. As per the PI method, we investigate the effectiveness of rubble pile asteroid disruption and deflection via hypervelocity impacts with 10:1 aspect ratio cylindrical tungsten penetrators. We present the results of an ongoing simulation campaign dedicated to investigating the PI method, using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) hydrodynamics code ALE3D run with the High-End Computing Capability (HECC) at NASA Ames Research Center. We model heterogeneous rubble pile asteroids with a distribution of spherical boulders of varying initial yield strengths set within a weak binder material. We find that rubble pile asteroids of this type in the 20 - 100 meter-class can be effectively mitigated via 20 km/s impacts with 100 - 1000 kg penetrators via the coupling of the penetrator kinetic energy into the bulk material of the asteroid.

astro-ph.EP

Optical and acoustic ground effects simulations from terminal defense asteroid disruption via the PI method

Our simulations suggest that PI ("Pulverize It"), a NASA Phase II NIAC study, is an effective multi-modal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes (with intercepts as short as hours prior to atmospheric entry) as well as long interdiction time scales with months to years of warning. The basic process is complete disruption of the threat via fragmentation. In scenarios with sufficiently long warning time, the fragment cloud spreads enough to miss Earth, resulting in no ground effects. In "worst-case" scenarios, when the warning time is short, the fragments (typically <10 m in diameter) will enter Earth's atmosphere, where their energy is dissipated in a series of ground-level optical pulses and de-correlated shock waves, mitigating any significant damage. We investigate the optical and acoustic ground effects through a set of simulation codes that model the interaction of asteroid fragments with Earth's atmosphere following terminal threat interception. Even in short-warning time cases where fragments enter the atmosphere, our simulations suggest that threats mitigated by the PI method produce vastly less damage on the ground when compared to the same unfragmented case, yielding optical energy deposition below 200 kJ/m$^2$ and shock wave over-pressures under 3 kPa. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 PDC, the hypothetical 800 m diameter asteroid from the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference impact exercise, can be effectively mitigated through fragmentation. We find that a terminal defense mitigation scenario that disrupts 2023 PDC into 1 million fragments with an intercept of 60 days before ground impact results in minimal ground effects.

astro-ph.EP

Evaluating Short-Warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a Near-Earth Object (NEO) that was discovered on July 15, 2023, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ~0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ~1$\times10^5$ km and velocity of 11.27 km/s. Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26-58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m [JPL Sentry, September 15, 2023] (weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g/cm$^3$, and impact velocity of 15.59 km/s, a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ~1.5 Mt, approximately three times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption (IRD) for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multi-modal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction time scales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of one day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

astro-ph.EP

The Role of Source Geometry and Atmospheric Propagation in Global Bolide Infrasound Detectability

Global infrasound monitoring provides a persistent means of detecting energetic bolide atmospheric entries, complementing optical observations and extending coverage over remote regions. We present a global assessment of the physical factors governing bolide infrasound detectability by correlating 623 bolide events reported by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies between 2007 and 2025 with waveform data from the International Monitoring System. We identify 311 events with confirmed infrasound detections, corresponding to a detection rate of approximately 50%, substantially higher than inferred from earlier surveys, reflecting both the maturation of the global infrasound network and advances in automated, multi-frequency array processing. Analysis of flight parameters shows that infrasound detectability is selective rather than uniform across the bolide population. Detected events are preferentially associated with steeper entry angles and lower-altitude energy deposition, while shallow, high-altitude trajectories are less consistently observed. Very high-energy events remain detectable regardless of geometry, but for the more common lower-energy regime, observability depends on specific combinations of entry parameters and propagation conditions. This geometric dependence persists across comparable energy ranges and atmospheric conditions, indicating that entry angle exerts a primary control on detectability, with energy and propagation acting as secondary modulating factors. These results provide new physical constraints on bolide-atmosphere interactions and improve interpretation of global infrasound observations for planetary defense and atmospheric-entry studies.

astro-ph.EP

Shock wave formation in the thermosphere by an earthgrazing fireball: Empirical evidence for volatile-enhanced hydrodynamic shielding

Hydrodynamic shielding is a theoretically well-established but observationally elusive and experimentally difficult-to-replicate phenomenon with implications that extend far beyond meteor physics. Rare earthgrazing meteoroids with infrasound signatures that penetrate to the ground can be used to probe hydrodynamic shielding that leads to strong shock formation at high altitude. Here, we report the first coordinated optical and multi-station infrasound observations of a centimeter-scale earthgrazing fireball that generated sustained cylindrical line shock at thermospheric altitudes near 92 km. The event was recorded by numerous optical stations and three infrasound arrays, allowing trajectory reconstruction, ablation behavior, acoustic source localization, and shock characteristics. Optical observations indicate early mechanical erosion and ablation/evaporation at exceptionally low dynamic pressure, consistent with a cometary or a porous, volatile-bearing CM chondritic object. Independent infrasound detections localize shock generation to multiple points along a 164 km trajectory segment near perigee. Weak-shock modeling yields a consistent blast radius of ~30 m, implying an acoustic-equivalent source size far exceeding the physical dimensions of the ~45 g nucleus. We demonstrate that classical gas dynamics and ablation-driven hydrodynamic shielding alone cannot account for these observations under ambient thermospheric conditions. We show that volatile release provides the additional flow-field density enhancement required to amplify hydrodynamic shielding, reduce the effective local Knudsen number, and sustain a shock envelope capable of radiating detectable infrasound. These results demonstrate that small, volatile-rich meteoroids can transiently establish continuum-like flow in rarefied environments.

astro-ph.EP

Benchmarking Cylindrical Blast Wave Theory Against the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius (R_0) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients (C) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate C is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to C at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates R_0 by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. These results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining R_0.

physics.ao-ph

Multi-Arrival Infrasound from Meteoroids: Fragmentation Signatures versus Propagation Effects in a Fine-Scale Layered Atmosphere

Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ~140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.

astro-ph.EP

Observational Evidence for Wind-Driven Low-Pass Filtering of Infrasound at Short Range

Infrasound from controlled explosions provide a unique opportunity to isolate atmospheric effects on propagation. We report observations from two campaigns in May and October 2024, each featuring 10-ton TNT-equivalent controlled surface chemical explosions recorded by a dense network of 31 single-sensor stations within 23 km. Despite identical sources, the observed wavefields were very different. October signals followed a near-unimodal period-distance trend, whereas May signals exhibited a pronounced azimuthal bifurcation in both period and celerity. Downwind paths largely preserved the short-period baseline observed in October, while upwind paths showed systematically longer periods caused by wind-driven low-pass filtering. This study provides the first direct observational evidence that tropospheric winds can impose azimuth-dependent low-pass filtering at local ranges, without the influence of measured temperature inversions. Thus, the structure of the atmosphere can modify the spectral characteristics of low-frequency acoustic waves even at a distance of only a few kilometers.

physics.geo-ph

Effect of a Fine-Scale Layered Structure of the Atmosphere on Infrasound Signals from Fragmenting Meteoroids

We investigate the influence of a fine-scale (FS) layered structure in the atmosphere on the propagation of infrasound signals generated by fragmenting meteoroids. Using a pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) approach, we model broadband acoustic signals from point sources at altitudes of 35-100 km. The presence of FS fluctuations in the stratosphere (37-45 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-120 km) modifies ray trajectories, causing multiple arrivals and prolonged signal durations at ground stations. In particular, meteoroids fragmenting at 80-100 km can produce two distinct thermospheric arrivals beyond 150km range, while meteoroids descending to 50 km or below yield weak, long-lived arrivals within the acoustic shadow zone via antiguiding propagation and diffraction. Comparison with observed infrasound data confirms that FS-layered inhomogeneities can account for multi-arrival "N-waves," broadening potential interpretations of meteoroid signals. The results also apply to other atmospheric-entry objects, such as sample return capsules, emphasizing how FS structure impacts shock wave propagation. Our findings advance understanding of wavefield evolution in a layered atmosphere and have broad relevance for global infrasound monitoring of diverse phenomena (e.g., re-entry capsules, rocket launches, and large-scale explosions).

astro-ph.EP

BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Fireball Database

Fireballs (bolides) are high-energy luminous phenomena produced when meteoroids and small asteroids enter Earth's atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, often resulting in fragmentation or complete disintegration accompanied by significant energy release. The resulting bolide light curves capture temporal brightness variations as these objects traverse increasingly dense atmospheric layers, providing essential information on meteoroid entry dynamics, fragmentation behavior, and atmospheric energy deposition processes. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies' (CNEOS) continuously expanding fireball database offers a globally comprehensive archive of bolide events, including light curves and associated metadata. Events associated with infrasound detections allow direct correlations between acoustic signatures and light-curve features, therefore enabling detailed analyses of fragmentation dynamics and energy deposition. Here, we introduce BLADE (Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer), a robust and high-fidelity framework specifically designed to analyze bolide light curves for objects detected from space. BLADE incorporates a processing pipeline integrating Savitzky-Golay filtering, prominence-based peak detection, and gradient analysis, enabling systematic identification and classification of fragmentation events and their associated energy release characteristics. Preliminary results demonstrate that BLADE reliably distinguishes distinct bolide behaviors, providing an objective, scalable methodology for characterization and analysis of large bolide light curve datasets. This foundational work establishes a novel pathway for advanced bolide research, with promising applications in planetary defense and global atmospheric monitoring.

astro-ph.EP

Multi-parameter constraints on empirical infrasound period-yield relations for bolides and implications for planetary defense

How effective are methods for estimating bolide energies from infrasound signal period-yield relationships? A single global period-energy relation can obscure significant variability introduced by parameters such as the atmospheric Doppler wind profile and the bolide's energy deposition profile as a function of altitude. Bolide speed, entry angle, burst altitude, and multi-episode fragmentation all may play a role in defining the detected period of the shockwave. By leveraging bolide light curve data from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), we re-examined the period-energy relation as a function of these parameters. Through a bootstrap approach, we show that various event subsets can deviate from widely cited period-energy models and we identify which specific conditions most strongly reshape the period-energy scaling. The results define both the fidelity and reliability of period-energy relations when no additional data beyond the infrasound record is available and improve the outcome when supporting data from bolide trajectories and light curves are included. Ultimately, these findings expand the scope of earlier models, providing a nuanced and robust framework for infrasound-only yield estimation under a range of bolide scenarios.

astro-ph.EP

Investigating the relationship between bolide entry angle and apparent direction of infrasound signal arrivals

Infrasound sensing offers critical capabilities for detecting and geolocating bolide events globally. However, the observed back azimuths, directions from which infrasound signals arrive at stations, often differ from the theoretical expectations based on the bolide's peak brightness location. For objects with shallow entry angles, which traverse longer atmospheric paths, acoustic energy may be emitted from multiple points along the trajectory, leading to substantial variability in back azimuth residuals. This study investigates how the entry angle of energetic bolides affects the back azimuth deviations, independent of extrinsic factors such as atmospheric propagation, station noise, and signal processing methodologies. A theoretical framework, the Bolide Infrasound Back-Azimuth EXplorer Model (BIBEX-M), was developed to compute predicted back azimuths solely from geometric considerations. The model quantifies how these residuals vary as a function of source-to-receiver distance, revealing that bolides entering at shallow angles of 10 degrees can experience average residuals of 20 degrees, with deviations reaching up to 46 degrees at distances below 1000 km, and remaining significant even at 10,000 km. In contrast, bolides with steeper entry angles (greater than 60 degrees) show much smaller deviations, typically under 5 degrees at 1000 km and diminishing to less than 1 deg beyond 5000 km. These findings attest to the need for careful interpretation when evaluating signal detections and estimating bolide locations. This work is not only pertinent to bolides but also to other high-energy, extended-duration atmospheric phenomena such as space debris and reentry events, where similar geometric considerations can influence infrasound arrival directions.

physics.ao-ph

Along-trajectory acoustic signal variations observed during the hypersonic reentry of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule

The reentry of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule (SRC) on September 24, 2023, presented a rare opportunity to study atmospheric entry dynamics through a dense network of ground-based infrasound sensors. As the first interplanetary capsule to reenter over the United States since Stardust in 2006, this event allowed for unprecedented observations of infrasound signals generated during hypersonic descent. We deployed 39 single-sensor stations across Nevada and Utah, strategically distributed to capture signals from distinct trajectory points. Infrasound data were analyzed to examine how signal amplitude and period vary with altitude and propagation path for a non-ablating hypersonic object with well-defined physical and aerodynamic properties. Raytracing simulations incorporated atmospheric specifications from the Ground-2-Space model to estimate source altitudes for observed signals. Results confirmed ballistic arrivals at all stations, with source altitudes ranging from 44 km to 62 km along the trajectory. Signal period and amplitude exhibited strong dependence on source altitude, with higher altitudes corresponding to lower amplitudes, longer periods, and reduced high-frequency content. Regression analysis demonstrated strong correlations between signal characteristics and both altitude and propagation geometry. Our results suggest, when attenuation is considered, the amplitude is primarily determined by the source, with the propagation path playing a secondary role over the distances examined. These findings emphasize the utility of controlled SRC reentries for advancing our understanding of natural meteoroid dynamics, refining atmospheric entry models, and improving methodologies for planetary defense.

physics.ao-ph

Bolide infrasound signal morphology and yield estimates: A case study of two events detected by a dense acoustic sensor network

Two bolides (2 June 2016 and 4 April 2019) were detected at multiple regional infrasound stations with many of the locations receiving multiple detections. Analysis of the received signals was used to estimate the yield, location and trajectory, and the type of shock that produced the received signal. The results from the infrasound analysis were compared with ground truth information that was collected through other sensing modalities. This multi-modal framework offers an expanded perspective on the processes governing bolide shock generation and propagation. The majority of signal features showed reasonable agreement between the infrasound-based interpretation and the other observational modalities, though the yield estimate from the 2019 bolide was significantly lower using the infrasound detections. There was also evidence suggesting that one of the detections was from a cylindrical shock that was initially propagating upward, which is unusual though not impossible.

astro-ph.EP

Perspectives and challenges in bolide infrasound processing and interpretation: A focused review with case studies

Infrasound sensing plays a critical role in the detection and analysis of bolides, offering passive, cost-effective global monitoring capabilities. Key objectives include determining the timing, location, and yield of these events. Achieving these goals requires a robust approach to detect, analyze, and interpret rapidly moving elevated sources such as bolides (also re-entry and space debris). In light of advancements in infrasonic methodologies, there is a need for a comprehensive overview of the characteristics that distinguish bolides from other infrasound sources, and methodologies for bolide infrasound analysis. This paper provides a focused review of key considerations and presents a unified framework to enhance infrasound processing approaches specifically tailored for bolides. Three representative case studies are presented to demonstrate the practical application of infrasound processing methodologies and deriving source parameters, while exploring challenges associated with bolide-generated infrasound. These case studies underscore the effectiveness of infrasound in determining source parameters and highlight interpretative challenges, such as variations in signal period measurements across different studies. Future research should place emphasis on improving geolocation and yield accuracy. This can be achieved through rigorous and systematic analyses of large, statistically significant samples of such events. aiming to resolve interpretative inconsistencies and explore the causes for variability in signal periods and back azimuths. The topic described here is also relevant to space exploration involving planetary bodies with atmospheres, such as Venus, Mars, and Titan.

astro-ph.EP

Geophysical Observations of the 24 September 2023 OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Re-Entry

Sample Return Capsules (SRCs) entering Earth's atmosphere at hypervelocity from interplanetary space are a valuable resource for studying meteor phenomena. The 24 September 2023 arrival of the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer) SRC provided an unprecedented chance for geophysical observations of a well-characterized source with known parameters, including timing and trajectory. A collaborative effort involving researchers from 16 institutions executed a carefully planned geophysical observational campaign at strategically chosen locations, deploying over 400 ground-based sensors encompassing infrasound, seismic, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), and GPS technologies. Additionally, balloons equipped with infrasound sensors were launched to capture signals at higher altitudes. This campaign (the largest of its kind so far) yielded a wealth of invaluable data anticipated to fuel scientific inquiry for years to come. The success of the observational campaign is evidenced by the near-universal detection of signals across instruments, both proximal and distal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the collective scientific effort, field deployment, and preliminary findings. The early findings have the potential to inform future space missions and terrestrial campaigns, contributing to our understanding of meteoroid interactions with planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, the dataset collected during this campaign will improve entry and propagation models as well as augment the study of atmospheric dynamics and shock phenomena generated by meteoroids and similar sources.

astro-ph.EP