arXiv subjects

Elke U. Weber

Publications and source records attributed to Elke U. Weber.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

From risk to flourishing: Seeds for responding to a complex world

Flourishing is the actualization of all beings toward their good -- not only individually but collectively, answering the question of `how do we live well with and for each other?'. In science as in society, the tendency to reduce, segregate, specialize, and settle has precluded embracing the concept of flourishing as a guiding principle. We aim to identify an approach to risk science research that promotes the flourishing of socio-ecological-technological systems (SETS). We discuss the normative role of an orientation toward flourishing for the field of risk science. We explore the possibility that (risk) science could be done in a way that is capable of pointing society toward a different future, one more resilient and more capable of flourishing. Our exploration mirrors the conversational nature of flourishing itself: examine ideologies traditionally believed to be rigidly in opposition and consider what emerges in the space(s) and conversation between them. We call this a dialectical approach. Within this paradigm grounded in conversation, pluralism, and pragmatism, we revisit three longstanding tensions in risk science: physical$|$social, determinism$|$uncertainty, contextuality$|$generality. Although these tensions are not new, revisiting them together through the lens of complexity science, and with explicit attention to the normative commitments that shape risk research, reveals underexplored possibilities for the field. Examining them in conversation with the other allows us to explore the provisional seeds for what might be termed complex risk science: interdependence, responsivity, participation, pluralism, openness, and ongoingness. Enacting the dialectical paradigm towards a risk science for a flourishing world will depend on creating collectives toward complex risk science, supporting them with skillfully governed commons, and centering care in our research.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Policy, Risk, and Norms Shape Collective Behaviors Worldwide

Societal responses to environmental change vary widely, even under comparable shocks, reflecting differences in both policy measures and public reactions shaped by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. We examine mask-wearing dynamics across 47 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic using a process-based, utility-driven model of individual behavior with three evolving drivers: policy stringency, disease risk, and social norms to understand emergent collective behavior. Calibrated with daily data on mask usage, COVID-19 deaths, and policy mandates, the model reproduces diverse national trajectories with minimal complexity. Policy and norms are crucial for explaining variation, and we find significant associations between weights for all three drivers and cultural and socioeconomic indicators. Our findings demonstrate how mechanistic models can uncover the processes shaping collective behavior, enabling policymakers to anticipate the magnitude and timing of behavioral change and design more effective, context-sensitive interventions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Feature Importance of Climate Vulnerability Indicators with Gradient Boosting across Five Global Cities

Efforts are needed to identify and measure both communities' exposure to climate hazards and the social vulnerabilities that interact with these hazards, but the science of validating hazard vulnerability indicators is still in its infancy. Progress is needed to improve: 1) the selection of variables that are used as proxies to represent hazard vulnerability; 2) the applicability and scale for which these indicators are intended, including their transnational applicability. We administered an international urban survey in Buenos Aires, Argentina; Johannesburg, South Africa; London, United Kingdom; New York City, United States; and Seoul, South Korea in order to collect data on exposure to various types of extreme weather events, socioeconomic characteristics commonly used as proxies for vulnerability (i.e., income, education level, gender, and age), and additional characteristics not often included in existing composite indices (i.e., queer identity, disability identity, non-dominant primary language, and self-perceptions of both discrimination and vulnerability to flood risk). We then use feature importance analysis with gradient-boosted decision trees to measure the importance that these variables have in predicting exposure to various types of extreme weather events. Our results show that non-traditional variables were more relevant to self-reported exposure to extreme weather events than traditionally employed variables such as income or age. Furthermore, differences in variable relevance across different types of hazards and across urban contexts suggest that vulnerability indicators need to be fit to context and should not be used in a one-size-fits-all fashion.

econ.EM↗