Eloi Lindas | Searcharxiv

arXiv2025

Achieving Skilled and Reliable Daily Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales over France

In a growing renewable based energy system, accurate and reliable wind power forecasts are crucial for grid stability, balancing supply and demand and market risk management. Even though short-term weather forecasts have been thoroughly used to provide up to 3 days ahead renewable power predictions, forecasts involving prediction horizons longer than a week still need investigations. Despite the recent progress in subseasonal-to-seasonal weather probabilistic forecasting, their use for wind power prediction usually involves both temporal and spatial aggregation to achieve reasonable skill. In this study, we present a lead time and numerical weather model agnostic forecasting pipeline which enables to transform ECMWF subseasonal-to-seasonal weather forecasts into wind power forecasts for France for lead times ranging from 1 day to 46 days at daily resolution. By leveraging a post-processing step of the resulting power ensembles we show that these forecasts improve the climatological baseline by 15% to 5% for the Continuous Ranked Probability Score and 20% to 5% for ensemble Mean Squared Error up to 16 days in advance, before converging towards the climatological skill. This improvement in skill is jointly obtained with near perfect calibration of the forecasts for every lead time. The results suggest that electricity market players could benefit from the extended forecast range up to two weeks to improve their decision making on renewable supply

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Towards Accurate Forecasting of Renewable Energy : Building Datasets and Benchmarking Machine Learning Models for Solar and Wind Power in France

Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources is essential for grid stability and price prediction. Regional power supply forecasts are usually indirect through a bottom-up approach of plant-level forecasts, incorporate lagged power values, and do not use the potential of spatially resolved data. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for predicting solar and wind power production at country scale in France using machine learning models trained with spatially explicit weather data combined with spatial information about production sites capacity. A dataset is built spanning from 2012 to 2023, using daily power production data from RTE (the national grid operator) as the target variable, with daily weather data from ERA5, production sites capacity and location, and electricity prices as input features. Three modeling approaches are explored to handle spatially resolved weather data: spatial averaging over the country, dimension reduction through principal component analysis, and a computer vision architecture to exploit complex spatial relationships. The study benchmarks state-of-the-art machine learning models as well as hyperparameter tuning approaches based on cross-validation methods on daily power production data. Results indicate that cross-validation tailored to time series is best suited to reach low error. We found that neural networks tend to outperform traditional tree-based models, which face challenges in extrapolation due to the increasing renewable capacity over time. Model performance ranges from 4% to 10% in nRMSE for midterm horizon, achieving similar error metrics to local models established at a single-plant level, highlighting the potential of these methods for regional power supply forecasting.

eess.SP↗