arXiv subjects

Elsa Arcaute

Publications and source records attributed to Elsa Arcaute.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Truncated lognormal distributions and scaling in the size of naturally defined population clusters

Using population data of high spatial resolution for a region in the south of Europe, we define cities by aggregating individuals to form connected clusters. The resulting cluster-population distributions show a smooth decreasing behavior covering six orders of magnitude. We perform a detailed study of the distributions, using state-of-the-art statistical tools. By means of scaling analysis we rule out the existence of a power-law regime in the low-population range. The logarithmic-coefficient-of-variation test allows us to establish that the power-law tail for high population, characteristic of Zipf's law, has a rather limited range of applicability. Instead, lognormal fits describe the population distributions in a range covering from a few dozens individuals to more than one million (which corresponds to the population of the largest cluster).

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Don't go chasing artificial waterfalls: Simulating cascading failures in the power grid and the impact of artificial line-limit methods on results

Research into cascading failures in power-transmission networks requires detailed data on the capacity of individual transmission lines. However, these data are often unavailable to researchers. As a result, line limits are often modelled by assuming they are proportional to some average load. Little research exists, however, to support this assumption as being realistic. In this paper, we analyse the proportional-loading (PL) approach and compare it to two linear models that use voltage and initial power flow as variables. In conducting this modelling, we test the ability of artificial line limits to model true line limits, the damage done during an attack and the order in which edges are lost. we also test how accurately these methods rank the relative performance of different attack strategies. We find that the linear models are the top-performing method or close to the top in all tests. In comparison, the tolerance value that produces the best PL limits changes depending on the test. The PL approach was a particularly poor fit when the line tolerance was less than two, which is the most commonly used value range in cascading-failure research. We also find indications that the accuracy of modelling line limits does not indicate how well a model will represent grid collapse. In addition, we find evidence that the network's topology can be used to estimate the system's true mean loading. The findings of this paper provide an understanding of the weaknesses of the PL approach and offer an alternative method of line-limit modelling.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Airbnb's disruption of the housing structure in London

This paper explores Airbnb, a peer-to-peer platform for short-term rental of housing accommodation, examining the geographical pattern of those establishments using data from London. Our purpose is to analyse whether or not the diversity of dwelling types correlate with the distribution of listings. We use a measure of spread based on entropy to indicate the diversity of dwelling types and look at its relationship with the distribution of Airbnb establishments, as well as the type of home ownership using correlation analysis. It is important to note that our study only considers domestic building types, and excludes any information on the diversity of land uses. Two important findings emerge from our analysis. Firstly, the spatial location of Airbnb rentals is negatively correlated with the diversity of dwelling types, and positively correlated with a single dwelling type, which corresponds in general to purpose built flats, conversions and flats in commercial buildings. Secondly, Airbnb is associated with areas that have a high proportion of privately rented properties, detracting more than 1.4% of the housing supply into short-term rentals. Such a phenomenon can reach up to 20% in some neighbourhoods, further exacerbating the process of gentrification. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings as instruments to inform policies associated with the 'sharing' economy in relation to the disruption of the housing structure.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

The nested structure of urban business clusters

Although the cluster theory literature is bountiful in economics and regional science, there is still a lack of understanding of how the geographical scales of analysis (neighbourhood, city, region) relate to one another and impact the observed phenomenon, and to which extent the clusters are industrially bound or geographically consistent. In this paper, we cluster spatial economic activities through a multi-scalar approach following percolation theory. We consider both the industrial similarity and the geographical proximity of firms, through their joint probability function which is constructed as a copula. This gives rise to an emergent nested hierarchy of geoindustrial clusters, which enables us to analyse the relationships between the different scales, and specific industrial sectors. Using longitudinal business microdata from the Office for National Statistics, we look at the evolution of clusters which spans from very local groups of businesses to the metropolitan level, in 2007 and in 2014, so that the changes stemming from the financial crisis can be observed.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Measuring Accessibility using Gravity and Radiation Models

Since the presentation of the Radiation Model, much work has been done to compare its findings with those obtained from Gravitational Models. These comparisons always aim at measuring the accuracy with which the models reproduce the mobility described by origin-destination matrices. This has been done at different spatial scales using different datasets, and several versions of the models have been proposed to adjust to various spatial systems. However the models, to our knowledge, have never been compared with respect to policy testing scenarios. For this reason, here we use the models to analyze the impact of the introduction of a new transportation network, a Bus Rapid Transport system, in the city of Teresina in Brazil. We do this by measuring the estimated variation in the trip distribution, and formulate an accessibility to employment indicator for the different zones of the city. By comparing the results obtained with the two approaches, we are able, not only to better assess the goodness of fit and the impact of this intervention, but also to understand reasons for the systematic similarities and differences in their predictions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Multiscale Entropy in the Spatial Context of Cities

Entropy relates the fast, microscopic behaviour of the elements in a system to its slow, macroscopic state. We propose to use it to explain how, as complexity theory suggests, small scale decisions of individuals form cities. For this, we offer the first interpretation of entropy for cities that reflects interactions between different places through interdependently linked states in a multiscale approach. With simulated patterns we show that structural complexity in spatial systems can be the most probable configuration if the elements of a system interact across multiple scales. In the case study that observes the distribution of functions in West London from 1875 to 2005, we can partly explain the observed polycentric sprawl as a result of higher entropy compared to spatially random spread, compact mixed use growth or fully segregated patterns. This work contributes to understanding why cities are morphologically complex, and describes a consistent relationship between entropy and complexity that accounts for contradictions in the literature. Finally, because we evaluate the constraints urban morphology imposes on possible ways to use the city, the general framework of thinking could be applied to adjust urban plans to the uncertainty of underlying assumptions in planning practice.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Uncovering inequality through multifractality of land prices: 1912 Kyoto, a case study

Multifractal analysis offers a number of advantages to measure spatial economic segregation and inequality, as it is free of categories and boundaries definition problems and is insensitive to some shape-preserving changes in the variable distribution. We use two datasets describing Kyoto land prices in 1912 and 2012 and derive city models from this data to show that multifractal analysis is suitable to describe the heterogeneity of land prices. We found in particular a sharp decrease in multifractality, characteristic of homogenisation, between older Kyoto and present Kyoto, and similarities both between present Kyoto and present London, and between Kyoto and Manhattan as they were a century ago. In addition, we enlighten the preponderance of spatial distribution over variable distribution in shaping the multifractal spectrum. The results were tested against the classical segregation and inequality indicators, and found to offer an improvement over those.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

The angular nature of road networks

Road networks are characterised by several structural and geometric properties. Their topological structure determines partially its hierarchical arrangement, but since these are networks that are spatially situated and, therefore, spatially constrained, to fully understand the role that each road plays in the system it is fundamental to characterize the influence that geometrical properties have over the network's behaviour. In this work, we percolate the UK's road network using the relative angle between street segments as the occupation probability. We argue that road networks undergo a non-equilibrium first-order phase transition at the moment the main roads start to interconnect forming the spanning percolation cluster. The percolation process uncovers the hierarchical structure of the roads in the network, and as such, its classification. Furthermore, this technique serves to extract the set of most important roads of the network and to create a hierarchical index for each road in the system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Multifractal methodology

Various methods have been developed independently to study the multifractality of measures in many different contexts. Although they all convey the same intuitive idea of giving a "dimension" to sets where a quantity scales similarly within a space, they are not necessarily equivalent on a more rigorous level. This review article aims at unifying the multifractal methodology by presenting the multifractal theoretical framework and principal practical methods, namely the moment method, the histogram method, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) and modulus maxima wavelet transform (MMWT), with a comparative and interpretative eye.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2016

Cities and Regions in Britain through hierarchical percolation

Urban systems present hierarchical structures at many different scales. These are observed as administrative regional delimitations which are the outcome of complex geographical, political and historical processes which leave almost indelible footprints on infrastructure such as the street network. In this work we uncover a set of hierarchies in Britain at different scales using percolation theory on the street network and on its intersections which are the primary points of interaction and urban agglomeration. At the larger scales, the observed hierarchical structures can be interpreted as regional fractures of Britain, observed in various forms, from natural boundaries, such as National Parks, to regional divisions based on social class and wealth such as the well-known North-South divide. At smaller scales, cities are generated through recursive percolations on each of the emerging regional clusters. We examine the evolution of the morphology of the system as a whole, by measuring the fractal dimension of the clusters at each distance threshold in the percolation. We observe that this reaches a maximum plateau at a specific distance. The clusters defined at this distance threshold are in excellent correspondence with the boundaries of cities recovered from satellite images, and from previous methods using population density.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Defining urban agglomerations to detect agglomeration economies

Agglomeration economies are a persistent subject of debate among economists and urban planners. Their definition turns on whether or not larger cities and regions are more efficient and more productive than smaller ones. We complement existing discussion on agglomeration economies and the urban wage premium here by providing a sensitivity analysis of estimated coefficients to different delineations of urban agglomeration as well as to different definitions of the economic measure that summarises the urban premium. This quantity can consist of total wages measured at the place of work, or of income registered at the place of residence. The chosen option influences the scaling behaviour of city size as well as the spatial distribution of the phenomenon at the city level. Spatial discrepancies between the distribution of jobs and the distribution of households at different economic levels makes city definitions crucial to the estimation of economic relations which vary with city size. We argue this point by regressing measures of income and wage over about five thousands different definitions of cities in France, based on our algorithmic aggregation of administrative spatial units at regular cutoffs which reflect density, population thresholds and commuting flows. We also go beyond aggregated observations of wages and income by searching for evidence of larger inequalities and economic segregation in the largest cities. This paper therefore considers the spatial and economic complexity of cities with respect to discussion about how we measure agglomeration economies. It provides a basis for reflection on alternative ways to model the processes which lead to observed variations, and this can provide insights for more comprehensive regional planning.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Paradoxical Interpretations of Urban Scaling Laws

Scaling laws are powerful summaries of the variations of urban attributes with city size. However, the validity of their universal meaning for cities is hampered by the observation that different scaling regimes can be encountered for the same territory, time and attribute, depending on the criteria used to delineate cities. The aim of this paper is to present new insights concerning this variation, coupled with a sensitivity analysis of urban scaling in France, for several socio-economic and infrastructural attributes from data collected exhaustively at the local level. The sensitivity analysis considers different aggregations of local units for which data are given by the Population Census. We produce a large variety of definitions of cities (approximatively 5000) by aggregating local Census units corresponding to the systematic combination of three definitional criteria: density, commuting flows and population cutoffs. We then measure the magnitude of scaling estimations and their sensitivity to city definitions for several urban indicators, showing for example that simple population cutoffs impact dramatically on the results obtained for a given system and attribute. Variations are interpreted with respect to the meaning of the attributes (socio-economic descriptors as well as infrastructure) and the urban definitions used (understood as the combination of the three criteria). Because of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem and of the heterogeneous morphologies and social landscapes in the cities internal space, scaling estimations are subject to large variations, distorting many of the conclusions on which generative models are based. We conclude that examining scaling variations might be an opportunity to understand better the inner composition of cities with regard to their size, i.e. to link the scales of the city-system with the system of cities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

On the problem of boundaries and scaling for urban street networks

Urban morphology has presented significant intellectual challenges to mathematicians and physicists ever since the eighteenth century, when Euler first explored the famous Konigsberg bridges problem. Many important regularities and scaling laws have been observed in urban studies, including Zipf's law and Gibrat's law, rendering cities attractive systems for analysis within statistical physics. Nevertheless, a broad consensus on how cities and their boundaries are defined is still lacking. Applying an elementary clustering technique to the street intersection space, we show that growth curves for the maximum cluster size of the largest cities in the UK and in California collapse to a single curve, namely the logistic. Subsequently, by introducing the concept of the condensation threshold, we show that natural boundaries of cities can be well defined in a universal way. This allows us to study and discuss systematically some of the regularities that are present in cities. We show that some scaling laws present consistent behaviour in space and time, thus suggesting the presence of common principles at the basis of the evolution of urban systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Multifractal to monofractal evolution of the London's street network

We perform a multifractal analysis of the evolution of London's street network from 1786 to 2010. First, we show that a single fractal dimension, commonly associated with the morphological description of cities, does not su ce to capture the dynamics of the system. Instead, for a proper characterization of such a dynamics, the multifractal spectrum needs to be considered. Our analysis reveals that London evolves from an inhomogeneous fractal structure, that can be described in terms of a multifractal, to a homogeneous one, that converges to monofractality. We argue that London's multifractal to monofracal evolution might be a special outcome of the constraint imposed on its growth by a green belt. Through a series of simulations, we show that multifractal objects, constructed through di usion limited aggregation, evolve towards monofractality if their growth is constrained by a non-permeable boundary.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

The Fractured Nature of British Politics

The outcome of the British General Election to be held in just over one week's time is widely regarded as the most difficult in living memory to predict. Current polls suggest that the two main parties are neck and neck but that there will be a landslide to the Scottish Nationalist Party with that party taking most of the constituencies in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to loose more than half their seats and the fringe parties of whom the UK Independence Party is the biggest are simply unknown quantities. Much of this volatility relates to long-standing and deeply rooted cultural and nationalist attitudes that relate to geographical fault lines that have been present for 500 years or more but occasionally reveal themselves, at times like this. In this paper our purpose is to raise the notion that these fault lines are critical to thinking about regionalism, nationalism and the hierarchy of cities in Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland). We use a percolation method (Arcaute et al. 2015) to reveal them that treats Britain as a giant cluster of related places each defined from the intersections of the road network at a very fine spatial scale. We break this giant cluster into a detailed hierarchy of sub-clusters by successively reducing a distance threshold which first breaks off some of the Scottish Islands and then reveals the very distinct nations and regions that make up Britain, all the way down to the definition of the largest cities that appear when the threshold reaches 300m. We use these percolation clusters to apportion the 2010 voting pattern to a new hierarchy of constituencies based on these clusters, and this gives us a picture of how Britain might vote on purely geographical lines. We then examine this voting pattern which provides us with some sense of how important the new configuration of political parties might be to the election next week.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Constructing cities, deconstructing scaling laws

Cities can be characterised and modelled through different urban measures. Consistency within these observables is crucial in order to advance towards a science of cities. Bettencourt et al have proposed that many of these urban measures can be predicted through universal scaling laws. We develop a framework to consistently define cities, using commuting to work and population density thresholds, and construct thousands of realisations of systems of cities with different boundaries for England and Wales. These serve as a laboratory for the scaling analysis of a large set of urban indicators. The analysis shows that population size alone does not provide enough information to describe or predict the state of a city as previously proposed, indicating that the expected scaling laws are not corroborated. We found that most urban indicators scale linearly with city size regardless of the definition of the urban boundaries. However, when non-linear correlations are present, the exponent fluctuates considerably.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2007

Complexity, Collective Effects and Modelling of Ecosystems: formation, function and stability

We discuss the relevance of studying ecology within the framework of Complexity Science from a statistical mechanics approach. Ecology is concerned with understanding how systems level properties emerge out of the multitude of interactions amongst large numbers of components, leading to ecosystems that possess the prototypical characteristics of complex systems. We argue that statistical mechanics is at present the best methodology available to obtain a quantitative description of complex systems, and that ecology is in urgent need of ``integrative'' approaches that are quantitative and non-stationary. We describe examples where combining statistical mechanics and ecology has led to improved ecological modelling and, at the same time, broadened the scope of statistical mechanics.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2006

A representation of twistors within geometric (Clifford) algebra

In previous work by two of the present authors, twistors were re-interpreted as 4-d spinors with a position dependence within the formalism of geometric (Clifford) algebra. Here we extend that approach and justify the nature of the position dependence. We deduce the spinor representation of the restricted conformal group in geometric algebra, and use it to show that the position dependence is the result of the action of the translation operator in the conformal space on the 4-d spinor. We obtain the geometrical description of twistors through the conformal geometric algebra, and derive the Robinson congruence. This verifies our formalism. Furthermore, we show that this novel approach brings considerable simplifications to the twistor formalism, and new advantages. We map the twistor to the 6-d conformal space, and derive the simplest geometrical description of the twistor as an observable of a relativistic quantum system. The new 6-d twistor takes the rôle of the state for that system. In our new interpretation of twistors as 4-d spinors, we therefore only need to apply the machinery already known from quantum mechanics in the geometric algebra formalism, in order to recover the physical and geometrical properties of 1-valence twistors.

math-ph↗