arXiv subjects

Ely D. Kovetz

Publications and source records attributed to Ely D. Kovetz.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

When galaxies burst II. Implications of enhanced burstiness for the 21-cm Cosmic Dawn signal

Recent JWST observations suggest that star formation in the early universe was substantially burstier than assumed in standard models. Such burstiness can be described as a stochastic process characterized by the burst amplitude and the coherence time of star formation epochs. In this paper, we investigate how bursty star formation modifies the 21-cm power spectrum during Cosmic Dawn through its impact on the non-local radiation fields that govern its evolution, namely Lyman-$α$ and X-ray backgrounds. To do so, we introduce an unequal-time correlation in the star-formation-rate density sourcing the two fields and we compute its impact using the analytical framework implemented in the public code Zeus21. We find that the burstiness-induced time correlation produces a shot-noise-like contribution in the Lyman-$α$ and X-ray fields, enhancing both their auto- and cross-power spectra while leaving the global 21-cm signal, $T_{21}(z)$, unchanged. As a result, the 21-cm power spectrum is strongly modified by a shot-noise-like contribution at the beginning of the Cosmic Dawn, where the signal is dominated by lower-mass halos ($M_h\lesssim10^{10}\,M_\odot$), and is boosted by a factor of a few near the Wouthuysen-Field absorption trough. Elsewhere at low redshift, where the clustering signal dominates and larger halos drive the signal, the burstiness component is negligible.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The Rise and Fall of Acoustic Oscillations at Cosmic Dawn

Cosmic dawn 21-cm observations will extend standard-ruler cosmology into the first billion years, unlocking epochs inaccessible by the cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure. Realizing this promise requires an accurate model of the acoustic structure imprinted onto early star formation. At such early times, two counterbalancing phenomena -- matter overdensities and streaming velocities between cold dark matter and baryons -- modulate the spatial statistics of star formation. While overdensities dictate where early galaxy-bearing haloes form, regions of high velocity suppress star formation. Their combined influence on the intergalactic medium yields 21-cm fluctuations with both baryon (BAO) and velocity-induced (VAO) acoustic oscillations. Here we present the first prescription to decompose the 21-cm power spectrum into its constituent acoustic features. We find a percent-level offset between the BAO and VAO shapes which, if ignored in standard-ruler analyses, would bias inferred values of $H(z)$ by $\sim 2\%$; we provide a correction. Moreover, as the relative prominence of BAOs and VAOs ebbs and flows non-monotonically across cosmic dawn, we demonstrate how their evolution is sensitive to the physics of early galaxy evolution and the first stars. Finally, we forecast how sensitive SKA will be to the BAO-VAO combined standard ruler. Our results establish joint BAO-VAO modeling as an essential ingredient of 21-cm acoustic inference, enabling robust constraints on both cosmic expansion and the first stars.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

A New Boundary Condition on Reionization

The epoch of reionization (EoR) marks the last phase transition of hydrogen in our Universe, as it evolves from cold and neutral to hot and ionized in the intergalactic medium (IGM). While its endpoint and duration can be estimated from current observations, albeit with large uncertainties, there is no known avenue to constrain its onset. We propose a novel method based on the Pearson cross-correlation coefficient between 21-cm brightness temperature maps and line-intensity maps tracing star-formation (e.g., [OIII], CO, [CII]). This real-space estimator evolves from negative to positive as X-ray heating progresses, and saturates prior to the EoR. We predict a sharp drop from saturation during the earliest EoR stages, when the IGM ionized fraction is $x_{\rm HII}\lesssim 10\%$. We show that in standard scenarios, where IGM heating precedes reionization, the drop is a clear, model-robust signature that the EoR is still in its early stages, even when $\bar{x}_{\rm HII}$ cannot be measured precisely. This information is not accessible through the detection of an anticorrelation alone, which only indicates that reionization is ongoing. To assess the detectability of this feature, we provide a preliminary estimate of its signal-to-noise ratio in our fiducial scenario, assuming SPHEREx-like and SKAO-like noise levels, indicating that it is within reach of next-generation surveys. The detection of the Pearson drop therefore will provide a unique anchor for the EoR onset, and an upper bound on $x_{\rm HII}$, complementing existing probes and tightening constraints on early galaxy formation models.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

When galaxies burst: enhanced shot-noise for line-intensity mapping in the JWST era

Recent JWST observations indicate that star formation at $z\!\sim\!4-6$ is more stochastic than previously assumed, with rms log-SFR scatter $\sim\!0.6$ dex at $M_h\!\sim\!10^{11}M_{\odot}$, growing toward smaller halos and time-correlated on $\sim\!25$ Myr. This is significantly higher than the typical $\sim\!0.3$ dex phenomenological lognormal scatter assumed in standard line-intensity mapping (LIM) forecasts. We propagate the JWST-era burstiness through to the LIM shot-noise power spectrum and show that the result is a simple multiplicative correction: the deterministic shot noise multiplied by a line-dependent boost factor $B_λ$ derived in closed form by convolving the SFR correlation function with the stellar-population-synthesis kernel of each line. At $z\!\sim\!6$, we find $B_{{\rm H}α}\!\simeq\!7$ and $B\!\sim\!2.5$-$3.5$ for longer-window tracers ([CII], CO, UV) - factors of $\sim\!2$-$5$ above the standard prescription, and growing further toward higher redshift. The enhancement transforms the LIM landscape: it improves auto-spectrum detectability and suppresses lower-redshift interloper contamination, but degrades cosmological applications such as BAO that rely on a clean clustering measurement. Crucially, it also opens a new use of LIM as a diagnostic of high-redshift star-formation physics beyond the regime of individually resolved galaxies: redshift tomography of a single line constrains the amplitude and mass dependence of the burstiness, while cross-line shot-noise correlations probe its time coherence.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Constraining Lyman-Werner Feedback from Velocity Acoustic Oscillations in the Cosmic Dawn 21 cm Signal

During Cosmic Dawn, Pop III stars could be formed in minihalos through molecular hydrogen (H$_2$) cooling. The minimum halo mass required for H$_2$ cooling is highly sensitive to Lyman-Werner (LW) radiation, which dissociates H$_2$ and regulates star formation. However, the efficiency of LW feedback remains poorly constrained due to the lack of direct observations of Pop III stars. The dark matter-baryon relative streaming velocity suppresses star formation in low-mass halos and imprints characteristic Velocity Acoustic Oscillation (VAO) features in the 21 cm power spectrum. These features are particularly sensitive to the cooling threshold mass: if LW feedback raises the minimum halo mass above the streaming-sensitive regime, the VAO signal is strongly suppressed. This makes the VAO wiggles a promising indirect probe of LW feedback during Cosmic Dawn. We investigate the feasibility of constraining LW feedback parameters using semi-numerical 21 cm lightcone simulations. We compute the multi-frequency angular power spectrum (MAPS) to isolate the VAO features and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to infer the LW feedback efficiency and the baseline cooling threshold. We find that in the absence of instrumental noise, the LW feedback efficiency can be accurately recovered from the VAO features. However, for the SKA-low AA* configuration, meaningful constraints require integration times exceeding $10^4$ hours under optimistic foreground assumptions. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate that VAO features provide a physically robust and potentially powerful probe of LW feedback at Cosmic Dawn.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

First galaxy ultraviolet luminosity function limits on dark matter-proton scattering

Scattering between dark matter (DM) and protons leads to suppressed small-scale fluctuations, with implications for a variety of cosmological observables. In this work, we search for evidence of DM-proton scattering with an interaction cross section $σ\!=\!σ_0 (\frac{v}{c})^n$ for $n=0,2$ and $4$, corresponding e.g. to velocity-independent contact interactions from heavy mediators, velocity-dependent pseudoscalar-mediated scattering, and higher-order dipole interactions, respectively, using high-redshift ($z \sim4-10$) ultraviolet galaxy luminosity functions (UVLFs) observed by Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We employ an adjusted implementation of GALLUMI combined with the modified Boltzmann solver CLASS DMeff that accounts for interacting DM, and incorporate UVLF data from both blank and lensed HST fields, alongside Planck CMB data and the Pantheon supernova catalog in a Bayesian analysis framework to set constraints on $σ_0$. Our results show that including lensed UVLF data, which probe fainter galaxies than the blank HST fields and thus smaller scales, leads to a substantial improvement in the constraints on $σ_0$ for $n>0$, surpassing existing bounds from Milky-Way (MW) satellite abundance and CMB anisotropies. For $m_χ = 1\,\rm MeV $, for example, we set the upper bounds at $1.1\times 10^{-25} \, \rm cm^2$ for $n=2$ and $2.1\times 10^{-22} \, \rm cm^2$ for $n=4$. For $n=0$, our bound is within an order of magnitude of those from the Lyman-$α$ forest and MW satellites.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Reionization Bubbles from Real-Space Cross Correlations of Line Intensity Maps

We propose a new way to reconstruct the ionized-bubble size distribution during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) through the real-space cross-correlation of 21-cm and star-forming line-intensity maps. Understanding the evolution and timing of the EoR is crucial for both astrophysics and cosmology, and a wealth of information on the first sources can be extracted from the study of ionized bubbles. Nevertheless, directly mapping bubbles is challenging due to the high redshifts involved, possible selection biases, and foregrounds in 21-cm maps. Here, we exploit the real-space cross-correlation $ξ_{21,ν}$ between 21-cm and line-intensity mapping (LIM) signals to reconstruct the evolution of bubble sizes during reionization. For the first time, we show that $ξ_{21,ν}(r)$ departs from a saturation level for each separation $r$ when bubbles of size $r$ begin to form, providing a handle for the onset of bubbles of each radius. Moreover, we demonstrate that $ξ_{21,ν}$ evolves from positive to negative as the EoR progresses, reaching a minimum (i.e. maximum anti-correlation) when bubbles of radius $r$ reach peak abundance. We show that these results are robust to changes in the astrophysical model as well as the timing/topology of reionization. This real-space observable complements usual Fourier-space estimators by capturing the localized nature of bubbles, offering new insights into the sources driving cosmic reionization.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

A User's Guide to Extracting Cosmological Information from Line-Intensity Maps

Line-intensity mapping (LIM) provides a promising way to probe cosmology, reionization and galaxy evolution. However, its sensitivity to cosmology and astrophysics at the same time is also a nuisance. Here we develop a comprehensive framework for modelling the LIM power spectrum, which includes redshift space distortions and the Alcock-Paczynski effect. We then identify and isolate degeneracies with astrophysics so that they can be marginalized over. We study the gains of using the multipole expansion of the anisotropic power spectrum, providing an accurate analytic expression for their covariance, and find a 10%-60% increase in the precision of the baryon acoustic oscillation scale measurements when including the hexadecapole in the analysis. We discuss different observational strategies when targeting other cosmological parameters, such as the sum of neutrino masses or primordial non-Gaussianity, finding that fewer and wider bins are typically more optimal. Overall, our formalism facilitates an optimal extraction of cosmological constraints robust to astrophysics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The Cosmic Expansion History from Line-Intensity Mapping

Line-intensity mapping (LIM) of emission from star-forming galaxies can be used to measure the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale as far back as the epoch of reionization. This provides a standard cosmic ruler to constrain the expansion rate of the Universe at redshifts which cannot be directly probed otherwise. In light of growing tension between measurements of the current expansion rate using the local distance ladder and those inferred from the cosmic microwave background, extending the constraints on the expansion history to bridge between the late and early Universe is of paramount importance. Using a newly derived methodology to robustly extract cosmological information from LIM, which minimizes the inherent degeneracy with unknown astrophysics, we show that present and future experiments can gradually improve the measurement precision of the expansion rate history, ultimately reaching percent-level constraints on the BAO scale. Specifically, we provide detailed forecasts for the SPHEREx satellite, which will target the H$α$ and Lyman-$α$ lines, and for the ground-based COMAP instrument -- as well as a future stage-3 experiment -- that will target the CO rotational lines. Besides weighing in on the so-called Hubble tension, reliable LIM cosmic rulers can enable wide-ranging tests of dark matter, dark energy and modified gravity.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

oLIMpus: An Effective Model for Line Intensity Mapping Auto- and Cross- Power Spectra in Cosmic Dawn and Reionization

Line-intensity mapping (LIM) is emerging as a powerful probe of the high-redshift Universe, with a growing number of LIM experiments targeting various spectral lines deep into the epochs of reionization and cosmic dawn. A key remaining challenge is the consistent and efficient modeling of the diverse emission lines and of the observables of different surveys. Here, we present oLIMpus, a fully analytical effective model to study LIM auto- and cross- power spectra. Our work builds on the 21-cm effective model presented in Zeus21, applying it to star-forming lines and improving it in different aspects. Our code accounts for shot noise and linear redshift-space distortions and it includes by default prescriptions for OII, OIII, H$α$, H$β$, CII, CO line luminosities, together with the 21-cm model inherited from Zeus21. Beyond auto- and cross-power spectra, oLIMpus can produce mock coeval boxes and lightcones, and with a computational time of $\sim s$ it is ideal for parameter-space exploration and inference. Its modular implementation makes it easy to customize and extend, enabling various applications, such as MCMC analyses and consistent multi-line cross-correlations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Tracing the Neutrino-Induced Phase Shift in the 21-cm Spectrum

We study the phase shift that free-streaming neutrinos imprint on the 21-cm power spectrum during cosmic dawn, computing for the first time its effect on both density- and velocity-induced acoustic oscillations. Neutrinos are known to generate a characteristic phase shift in the acoustic oscillations of the photon-baryon plasma before recombination, a signature already detected in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) as well as the spectrum of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) extracted from galaxy surveys. We show that in the 21-cm signal this phase shift is distinct from that observed in the CMB and BAO spectra, exhibiting a characteristic mode and redshift dependence arising from the additional contribution of the so-called velocity acoustic oscillations (VAOs), sourced by the baryon-dark matter relative velocities. Our results establish the phase of acoustic oscillations in the 21-cm spectrum as a promising new avenue for probing free-streaming light relics at cosmic dawn, complementary to existing CMB and BAO measurements.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Joint 21-cm and CMB Forecasts for Constraining Self-Interacting Massive Neutrinos

Self-interacting neutrinos provide an intriguing extension to the Standard Model, motivated by both particle physics and cosmology. Recent cosmological analyses suggest a bimodal posterior for the coupling strength $G_{\rm eff}$, favoring either strong or moderate interactions. These interactions modify the scale-dependence of the growth of cosmic structures, leaving distinct imprints on the matter power spectrum at small scales, $k\,>\,0.1\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. For the first time, we explore how the 21-cm power spectrum from the cosmic dawn and the dark ages can constrain the properties of self-interacting, massive neutrinos. The effects of small-scale suppression and enhancement in the matter power spectrum caused by self-interacting neutrinos propagate to the halo mass function, shaping the abundance of small- and intermediate-mass halos. It is precisely these halos that host the galaxies responsible for driving the evolution of the 21-cm signal during the cosmic dawn. We find that HERA at its design sensitivity can improve upon existing constraints on $G_{\rm eff}$ and be sensitive to small values of the coupling, beyond the reach of current and future CMB experiments. Crucially, we find that the combination of HERA and CMB-S4 can break parameter degeneracies, significantly improving the sensitivity to $G_{\rm eff}$ over either experiment alone. Finally, we investigate the prospects of probing neutrino properties with futuristic Lunar interferometers, accessing the astrophysics-free 21-cm power spectrum during the dark ages. The capability of probing small scales of these instruments will allow us to reach a percent-level constraint on the neutrino self-coupling.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Does it matter? A more careful treatment of density fluctuations in 21-cm simulations

The cosmological 21-cm signal is sourced from hyperfine transitions in neutral hydrogen atoms. Yet, although the abundance of hydrogen atoms follows the baryon density field, semi-numerical codes that simulate the 21-cm signal simplify their treatment as if all the matter in the Universe was in the form of collisionless cold dark matter (CDM). This is usually done by evolving the density field via a scale-independent growth factor (SIGF). In this work, we separate the baryons from CDM and evolve the two species with a proper scale-dependent growth factor (SDGF). By incorporating the SDGF in the 21cmFirstCLASS code, we demonstrate the effect that baryons and CDM have on the 21-cm signal at the linear dark ages epoch and the subsequent non-linear epochs of cosmic dawn and reionization. Our analysis shows that the baryonic nature of hydrogen cannot be ignored during the dark ages, and that non-linear effects in density-field evolution must be accounted for after stars have formed. Furthermore, we discuss how the 21-cm signal is modified at lower redshifts, where ground-based 21-cm interferometers are mostly sensitive, due to the choice of working with either the "linear" or "non-linear" matter over-density (that is, the over-density as computed from linear perturbation theory, and non-linear perturbation theory, respectively) in the extended Press-Schechter formalism. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/jordanflitter/21cmFirstCLASS.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Upcoming searches for decaying dark matter with ULTRASAT ultraviolet maps

Decaying dark matter (DDM) can be tested via different astrophysical and cosmological probes. In particular, particles in the $\sim$ 9.5 - 30 eV mass range that decay into monochromatic photons, would contribute to the extragalactic background light (EBL) in the ultraviolet (UV) bandwidth. In this work, we show that an intriguing improvement to the constraints on such DDM models can come from broadband UV surveys, such as GALEX or the upcoming ULTRASAT satellite. These provide diffuse light maps of the UV EBL, integrated over a wide redshift range. The cross correlation between intensity fluctuations in these maps with a reference spectroscopic galaxy survey, can be used to reconstruct the redshift evolution of the EBL intensity; in this way, it is also possible to detect signatures of contributions from DDM. We forecast the constraining power of (GALEX+ULTRASAT)$\times$DESI, and we show they will be able to detect DDM with decay rate up to $\mathcal{O}(10^{-26}\,{\rm s})$. In the context of axion-like particles (ALP), our forecasts can be converted to constraints on the ALP-photon coupling; our results show this technique will test ALP with coupling $\lesssim\mathcal{O}(10^{-12}\,{\rm GeV^{-1}})$, more than an order of magnitude better than current bounds in this mass range.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Neutrino Mass Constraints from kSZ Tomography

We forecast neutrino mass constraints using Stage IV CMB and large-scale structure surveys, focusing on kSZ tomography as an independent probe of the growth of cosmic structure. We take into account several realistic factors, including the kSZ optical depth degeneracy. Our baseline setup consists of CMB S4 temperature and polarization (but not lensing) information, DESI BAO, the LSST galaxy power spectrum, and a Planck like $τ$ prior, yielding $σ(\sum m_ν) = 32\, \rm{meV}$. Adding kSZ tomography improves this by a few percent, while a kSZ optical depth prior can push this improvement to over $15\%$, giving $σ(\sum m_ν) = 27\, \rm{meV}$. When CMB lensing is included in the baseline setup, kSZ does not further improve neutrino mass constraints. We find promising prospects for a scenario combining futuristic CMB and galaxy surveys.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Constraints on the fuzzy dark matter mass window from high-redshift observables

We use a combination of high-redshift observables to extract the strongest constraints to date on the fraction of axion fuzzy dark matter (FDM) in the mass window $10^{-26}\,\mathrm{eV}\!\lesssim\! m_\mathrm{FDM}\!\lesssim\!10^{-23}\,\mathrm{eV}$. These observables include ultraviolet luminosity functions (UVLFs) at redshifts $4-10$ measured by the Hubble Space Telescope, a constraint on the neutral hydrogen fraction from high-redshift quasar spectroscopy, the cosmic microwave background optical depth to reionization measurement from Planck and upper bounds on the 21cm power spectrum from HERA. In order to calculate these signals for FDM cosmology, we use the 21cmFirstCLASS code to interface between AxiCLASS and 21cmFAST and consistently account for the full cosmic history from recombination to reionization. To facilitate a full Bayesian likelihood analysis, we developed a machine-learning based pipeline, which is both accurate, and enables a swift statistical inference, orders of magnitude faster than a brute force approach. We find that FDM of mass $m_\mathrm{FDM} \!= \!10^{-23} \, \mathrm{eV}$ is bound to less than $16\%$ of the total dark matter, where the constrains strengthen towards smaller masses, reaching down to $1\%$ for $m_\mathrm{FDM}\! =\! 10^{-26} \, \mathrm{eV}$, both at $95\%$ confidence level. In addition, we forecast that a future detection of the 21cm power spectrum with HERA will lower the upper bound at $m_\mathrm{FDM}\! =\! 10^{-23} \, \mathrm{eV}$ to $\lesssim\!1\%$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Towards a multi-tracer neutrino mass measurement with line-intensity mapping

Accurately determining neutrino masses is a main objective of contemporary cosmology. Since massive neutrinos affect structure formation and evolution, probes of large scale structure are sensitive to the sum of their masses. In this work, we explore future constraints on $\sum m_ν$ utilizing line-intensity mapping (LIM) as a promising emerging probe of the density of our Universe, focusing on the fine-structure [CII] line as an example, and compare these constraints with those derived from traditional galaxy surveys. Additionally, we perform a multi-tracer analysis using velocity tomography via the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich and moving lens effects to reconstruct the three-dimensional velocity field. Our forecasts indicate that the next-generation AtLAST detector by itself can achieve $σ_{Σm_ν} \sim 50$ meV sensitivity. Velocity tomography will further improve these constraints by 4%. Incorporating forecasts for CMB-S4 and DESI-BAO in a comprehensive multi-tracer analysis, while setting a prior on the optical depth to reionization $τ$ derived using 21-cm forecasted observations, to break degeneracies, we find that a $\gtrsim5σ$ detection of $\sum m_ν\!\sim\! 60$ meV, under the normal hierarchy, is within reach with LIM. Even without a $τ$ prior, our combined forecast reaches $σ_{Σm_ν} \!\sim\! 18$ meV.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Early Dark Energy Effects on the 21cm Signal

Early dark energy (EDE) is one of the leading models proposed to resolve the perplexing Hubble tension. Despite extensive scrutiny and testing against various observables, conclusive constraints remain elusive as we await new data. In this paper, we study the impact of EDE on the 21cm signal, a powerful probe of cosmic dawn, and the epoch of reionization. First, we examine the signatures of the shift in cosmological parameters and the new EDE parameters on the evolution of the 21cm signal compared to $Λ$CDM. We then focus on the implications of these signatures for upcoming radio interferometer telescopes, such as the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA), and their ability to differentiate between EDE and $Λ$CDM. Finally, we forecast HERA's sensitivity to the fractional energy density of EDE, $f_{\rm EDE}$, assuming a fiducial EDE model. We find significant modifications to the 21cm signal due to the presence of EDE. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that HERA, operating in its designed configuration, is poised to differentiate between the models and be sensitive to $f_{\rm EDE}$ within $2σ$ after $\mathcal{O}(100)$ days of observation and $5σ$ after 2 years.

astro-ph.CO↗