arXiv subjects

Emanuele Strano

Publications and source records attributed to Emanuele Strano.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Mobilkit: A Python Toolkit for Urban Resilience and Disaster Risk Management Analytics using High Frequency Human Mobility Data

Increasingly available high-frequency location datasets derived from smartphones provide unprecedented insight into trajectories of human mobility. These datasets can play a significant and growing role in informing preparedness and response to natural disasters. However, limited tools exist to enable rapid analytics using mobility data, and tend not to be tailored specifically for disaster risk management. We present an open-source, Python-based toolkit designed to conduct replicable and scalable post-disaster analytics using GPS location data. Privacy, system capabilities, and potential expansions of \textit{Mobilkit} are discussed.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

The agglomeration and dispersion dichotomy of human settlements on Earth

Human settlements on Earth are scattered in a multitude of shapes, sizes and spatial arrangements. These patterns are often not random but a result of complex geographical, cultural, economic and historical processes that have profound human and ecological impacts. However, little is known about the global distribution of these patterns and the spatial forces that creates them. This study analyses human settlements from high-resolution satellite imagery and provides a global classification of spatial patterns. We find two emerging classes, namely agglomeration and dispersion. In the former, settlements are fewer than expected based on the predictions of scaling theory, while an unexpectedly high number of settlements characterizes the latter. Our global classification of spatial patterns correlates with some urban outcomes, such as the amount of CO2 emitted for transportation, providing insights into the relationship between land use patterns and socio-economic and environmental indicators. To explain the observed spatial patterns, we also propose a model that combines two agglomeration forces and simulates human settlements' historical growth. Our results show that our model accurately matches the observed global classification (F1: 0.73), helps to understand and estimate the growth of human settlements and, in turn, the distribution and physical dynamics of all human settlements on Earth, from small villages to cities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Urbanization and Economic Complexity

Urbanization plays a crucial role in the economic development of every country. The mutual relationship between the urbanization of any country and its economic productive structure is far from being understood. We analyzed the historical evolution of product exports for all countries using the World Trade Web (WTW) with respect to patterns of urbanization from 1995-2010. Using the evolving framework of economic complexity, we reveal that a country's economic development in terms of its production and export of goods, is interwoven with the urbanization process during the early stages of its economic development and growth. Meanwhile in urbanized countries, the reciprocal relation between economic growth and urbanization fades away with respect to its later stages, becoming negligible for countries highly dependent on the export of resources where urbanization is not linked to any structural economic transformation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Outlining where humans live -- The World Settlement Footprint 2015

Human settlements are the cause and consequence of most environmental and societal changes on Earth; however, their location and extent is still under debate. We provide here a new 10m resolution (0.32 arc sec) global map of human settlements on Earth for the year 2015, namely the World Settlement Footprint 2015 (WSF2015). The raster dataset has been generated by means of an advanced classification system which, for the first time, jointly exploits open-and-free optical and radar satellite imagery. The WSF2015 has been validated against 900,000 samples labelled by crowdsourcing photointerpretation of very high resolution Google Earth imagery and outperforms all other similar existing layers; in particular, it considerably improves the detection of very small settlements in rural regions and better outlines scattered suburban areas. The dataset can be used at any scale of observation in support to all applications requiring detailed and accurate information on human presence (e.g., socioeconomic development, population distribution, risks assessment, etc.).

eess.IV↗

arXiv2019

Spatial sensitivity analysis for urban land use prediction with physics-constrained conditional generative adversarial networks

Accurately forecasting urban development and its environmental and climate impacts critically depends on realistic models of the spatial structure of the built environment, and of its dependence on key factors such as population and economic development. Scenario simulation and sensitivity analysis, i.e., predicting how changes in underlying factors at a given location affect urbanization outcomes at other locations, is currently not achievable at a large scale with traditional urban growth models, which are either too simplistic, or depend on detailed locally-collected socioeconomic data that is not available in most places. Here we develop a framework to estimate, purely from globally-available remote-sensing data and without parametric assumptions, the spatial sensitivity of the (\textit{static}) rate of change of urban sprawl to key macroeconomic development indicators. We formulate this spatial regression problem as an image-to-image translation task using conditional generative adversarial networks (GANs), where the gradients necessary for comparative static analysis are provided by the backpropagation algorithm used to train the model. This framework allows to naturally incorporate physical constraints, e.g., the inability to build over water bodies. To validate the spatial structure of model-generated built environment distributions, we use spatial statistics commonly used in urban form analysis. We apply our method to a novel dataset comprising of layers on the built environment, nightlighs measurements (a proxy for economic development and energy use), and population density for the world's most populous 15,000 cities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Mapping road network communities for guiding disease surveillance and control strategies

Human mobility is increasing in its volume, speed and reach, leading to the movement and introduction of pathogens through infected travelers. An understanding of how areas are connected, the strength of these connections and how this translates into disease spread is valuable for planning surveillance and designing control and elimination strategies. While analyses have been undertaken to identify and map connectivity in global air, shipping and migration networks, such analyses have yet to be undertaken on the road networks that carry the vast majority of travellers in low and middle income settings. Here we present methods for identifying road connectivity communities, as well as mapping bridge areas between communities and key linkage routes. We apply these to Africa, and show how many highly-connected communities straddle national borders and when integrating malaria prevalence and population data as an example, the communities change, highlighting regions most strongly connected to areas of high burden. The approaches and results presented provide a flexible tool for supporting the design of disease surveillance and control strategies through mapping areas of high connectivity that form coherent units of intervention and key link routes between communities for targeting surveillance.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Modeling urbanization patterns with generative adversarial networks

In this study we propose a new method to simulate hyper-realistic urban patterns using Generative Adversarial Networks trained with a global urban land-use inventory. We generated a synthetic urban "universe" that qualitatively reproduces the complex spatial organization observed in global urban patterns, while being able to quantitatively recover certain key high-level urban spatial metrics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

The scaling structure of the global road network

Because of increasing global urbanization and its immediate consequences, including changes in patterns of food demand, circulation and land use, the next century will witness a major increase in the extent of paved roads built worldwide. To model the effects of this increase, it is crucial to understand whether possible self-organized patterns are inherent in the global road network structure. Here, we use the largest updated database comprising all major roads on Earth, together with global urban and cropland inventories, to suggest that road length distributions within croplands are indistinguishable from urban ones, once rescaled to account for the difference in mean road length. Such similarity extends to road length distributions within urban or agricultural domains of given area. We find two distinct regimes for the scaling of the mean road length with the associated area, holding in general at small and at large values of the latter. In suitably large urban and cropland domains, we find that mean and total road lengths increase linearly with their domain area, differently from earlier suggestions. Scaling regimes suggest that simple and universal mechanisms regulate urban and cropland road expansion at the global scale. As such, our findings bear implications for global road infrastructure growth based on land-use change and for planning policies sustaining urban expansions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Breaking new ground in mapping human settlements from space -The Global Urban Footprint-

Today 7.2 billion people inhabit the Earth and by 2050 this number will have risen to around nine billion, of which about 70 percent will be living in cities. Hence, it is essential to understand drivers, dynamics, and impacts of the human settlements development. A key component in this context is the availability of an up-to-date and spatially consistent map of the location and distribution of human settlements. It is here that the Global Urban Footprint (GUF) raster map can make a valuable contribution. The new global GUF binary settlement mask shows a so far unprecedented spatial resolution of 0.4 arcsec ($\sim12 m$) that provides - for the first time - a complete picture of the entirety of urban and rural settlements. The GUF has been derived by means of a fully automated processing framework - the Urban Footprint Processor (UFP) - that was used to analyze a global coverage of more than 180,000 TanDEM-X and TerraSAR-X radar images with 3m ground resolution collected in 2011-2012. Various quality assessment studies to determine the absolute GUF accuracy based on ground truth data on the one hand and the relative accuracies compared to established settlements maps on the other hand, clearly indicate the added value of the new global GUF layer, in particular with respect to the representation of rural settlement patterns. Generally, the GUF layer achieves an overall absolute accuracy of about 85\%, with observed minima around 65\% and maxima around 98 \%. The GUF will be provided open and free for any scientific use in the full resolution and for any non-profit (but also non-scientific) use in a generalized version of 2.8 arcsec ($\sim84m$). Therewith, the new GUF layer can be expected to break new ground with respect to the analysis of global urbanization and peri-urbanization patterns, population estimation or vulnerability assessment.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Rich and Poor Cities in Europe. Urban Scaling to Mapping European Economic Convergence

Recent advances in the urban science make broad use of the notion of scaling. We focus here on the important scaling relationship between the gross metropolitan product (GMP) of a city and its population (pop). It has been demonstrated that GMP $\propto$ Y pop $^β$ with $β$ always greater than 1 and close to 1.2. This fundamental finding highlights a universal rule that holds across countries and cultures and might explain the very nature of cities. However, in an increasingly connected world, the hypothesis that the economy of a city solely depends on its population might be questionable. Using data for 248 cities in the European Union between 2005 and 2010, we found a double GMP/pop scaling regime. For West EU cities, $β$ = 1 over the whole the period, while for post-communist cities $β>$1 and increases from $\sim$1.2 to $\sim$1.4. The evolution of the scaling exponent describes the convergence of post-communist European cities to open and liberal economies. We propose a simple model of economic convergence in which, under stable political conditions, a linear GMP/pop scaling is expected for all cities. The results suggest that the GMP/pop super-linear scaling represents a phase of economic growth rather than a steady, universal urban feature. The results also suggest that relationships between cities are embedded in their political and economic context and cannot be neglected in explanations of cities, urbanization and urban economics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Spatio-temporal analysis of micro economic activities in Rome reveals patterns of mixed-use urban evolution

Understanding urban growth is one with understanding how society evolves to satisfy the needs of its individuals in sharing a common space and adapting to the territory. We propose here a quantitative analysis of the historical development of a large urban area by investigating the spatial distribution and the age of commercial activities in the whole city of Rome. We find that the age of activities of various categories presents a very interesting double exponential trend, with a transition possibly related to the long-term economical effects determined by the oil crisis of the Seventies. The diversification of commercial categories, studied through various measures of entropy, shows, among other interesting features, a saturating behaviour with the density of activities. Moreover, different couples of commercial categories exhibit over the years a tendency to attract in space. Our results demonstrate that the spatio-temporal distribution of commercial activities can provide important insights on the urbanisation processes at work, revealing specific and not trivial socio-economical dynamics, as the presence of crisis periods and expansion trends, and contributing to the characterisation of the maturity of urban areas.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Multiplex networks in metropolitan areas: generic features and local effects

Most large cities are spanned by more than one transportation system. These different modes of transport have usually been studied separately: it is however important to understand the impact on urban systems of the coupling between them and we report in this paper an empirical analysis of the coupling between the street network and the subway for the two large metropolitan areas of London and New York. We observe a similar behaviour for network quantities related to quickest paths suggesting the existence of generic mechanisms operating beyond the local peculiarities of the specific cities studied. An analysis of the betweenness centrality distribution shows that the introduction of underground networks operate as a decentralising force creating congestions in places located at the end of underground lines. Also, we find that increasing the speed of subways is not always beneficial and may lead to unwanted uneven spatial distributions of accessibility. In fact, for London -- but not for New York -- there is an optimal subway speed in terms of global congestion. These results show that it is crucial to consider the full, multimodal, multi-layer network aspects of transportation systems in order to understand the behaviour of cities and to avoid possible negative side-effects of urban planning decisions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Urban Morphometrics: Towards a Science of Urban Evolution

Urban theorists, social reformists and philosophers have considered the city as a living organism since Plato. However, despite extraordinary advancements in evolutionary biology, now being used to explain social and cultural phenomena, a proper science of evolution in cities has never been established since Geddes' work at the dawn of the Town Planning discipline. Commencing in the tradition of Urban Morphology, this research develops and validates a statistically reliable and universally applicable urban taxonomy. The research solidifies existing definitions of built form at the scale of the urban fabric and identifies the constituent elements of form in 40 contemporary UK cities. Quantifiable measurements of these elements allow mathematical descriptions of their organization and mutual relationships. Further, an optimized list of indices with maximum discriminatory potential distinguishes between cases from four historically characterised categories: 1) Historical, 2) Industrial, 3) New Towns, 4) Sprawl. Finally, a dendrogram is produced that shows the tree of similarity between cases, where the great divide between pre and post WWII war urban form is demonstrated. This work shows that: a) it is conceptually sound and viable to measure urban fabric utilizing public, big-data repositories, b) the proposed urban morphometrics system accurately characterises the structure of urban form and clusters cases properly based on their historical origins, c) scientific models of biological evolution can be applied to urban analysis to understand underlying structural similarities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

The simplicity of planar networks

Shortest paths are not always simple. In planar networks, they can be very different from those with the smallest number of turns - the simplest paths. The statistical comparison of the lengths of the shortest and simplest paths provides a non trivial and non local information about the spatial organization of these graphs. We define the simplicity index as the average ratio of these lengths and the simplicity profile characterizes the simplicity at different scales. We measure these metrics on artificial (roads, highways, railways) and natural networks (leaves, slime mould, insect wings) and show that there are fundamental differences in the organization of urban and biological systems, related to their function, navigation or distribution: straight lines are organized hierarchically in biological cases, and have random lengths and locations in urban systems. In the case of time evolving networks, the simplicity is able to reveal important structural changes during their evolution.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Urban street networks: a comparative analysis of ten European cities

We compare the structural properties of the street networks of ten different European cities using their primal representation. We investigate the properties of the geometry of the networks and a set of centrality measures highlighting differences and similarities among cases. In particular, we found that cities share structural similarities due to their quasi planarity but that there are also several distinctive geometrical proprieties. A Principal Component Analysis is also performed on the distributions of centralities and their respective moments, which is used to find distinctive characteristics by which we can classify cities into families. We believe that, beyond the improvement of the empirical knowledge on streets network proprieties, our findings can open new perspectives in the scientific relation between city planning and complex networks, stimulating the debate on the effectiveness of the set of knowledge that statistical physics can contribute for city planning and urban morphology studies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Vie Physarale: Evaluation of Roman roads with slime mould

Roman Empire is renowned for sharp logical design and outstanding building quality of its road system. Many roads built by Romans are still use in continental Europe and UK. The Roman roads were built for military transportations with efficiency in mind, as straight as possible. Thus the roads make an ideal test-bed for developing experimental laboratory techniques for evaluating man-made transport systems using living creatures. We imitate development of road networks in Iron Age Italy using slime mould Physarum polycephalum. We represent ten Roman cities with oat flakes, inoculate the slime mould in Roma, wait till slime mould spans all flakes-cities with its network of protoplasmic tubes, and analyse structures of the protoplasmic networks. We found that most Roman roads, apart of those linking Placentia to Bononia and Genua to Florenzia are represented in development of Physarum polycephalum. Transport networks developed by Romans and by slime mould show strong affinity of planar proximity graphs, and particular minimum spanning tree. Based on laboratory experiments we reconstructed a speculative sequence of road development in Iron Age Italy.

cs.CG↗

arXiv2012

Are motorways rational from slime mould's point of view?

We analyse the results of our experimental laboratory approximation of motorways networks with slime mould Physarum polycephalum. Motorway networks of fourteen geographical areas are considered: Australia, Africa, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, Iberia, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, The Netherlands, UK, USA. For each geographical entity we represented major urban areas by oat flakes and inoculated the slime mould in a capital. After slime mould spanned all urban areas with a network of its protoplasmic tubes we extracted a generalised Physarum graph from the network and compared the graphs with an abstract motorway graph using most common measures. The measures employed are the number of independent cycles, cohesion, shortest paths lengths, diameter, the Harary index and the Randic index. We obtained a series of intriguing results, and found that the slime mould approximates best of all the motorway graphs of Belgium, Canada and China, and that for all entities studied the best match between Physarum and motorway graphs is detected by the Randic index (molecular branching index).

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2012

Elementary processes governing the evolution of road networks

Urbanisation is a fundamental phenomenon whose quantitative characterisation is still inadequate. We report here the empirical analysis of a unique data set regarding almost 200 years of evolution of the road network in a large area located north of Milan (Italy). We find that urbanisation is characterised by the homogenisation of cell shapes, and by the stability throughout time of high-centrality roads which constitute the backbone of the urban structure, confirming the importance of historical paths. We show quantitatively that the growth of the network is governed by two elementary processes: (i) `densification', corresponding to an increase in the local density of roads around existing urban centres and (ii) `exploration', whereby new roads trigger the spatial evolution of the urbanisation front. The empirical identification of such simple elementary mechanisms suggests the existence of general, simple properties of urbanisation and opens new directions for its modelling and quantitative description.

physics.soc-ph↗