arXiv subjects

Emanuele Viola

Publications and source records attributed to Emanuele Viola.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Is It Real, or Is It Randomized?: A Financial Turing Test

We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are challenged to distinguish actual financial market returns from random temporal permutations of those returns. We find overwhelming statistical evidence (p-values no greater than 0.5%) that subjects can consistently distinguish between the two types of time series, thereby refuting the widespread belief that financial markets "look random." A key feature of the experiment is that subjects are given immediate feedback regarding the validity of their choices, allowing them to learn and adapt. We suggest that such novel interfaces can harness human capabilities to process and extract information from financial data in ways that computers cannot.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2009

A Computational View of Market Efficiency

We propose to study market efficiency from a computational viewpoint. Borrowing from theoretical computer science, we define a market to be \emph{efficient with respect to resources $S$} (e.g., time, memory) if no strategy using resources $S$ can make a profit. As a first step, we consider memory-$m$ strategies whose action at time $t$ depends only on the $m$ previous observations at times $t-m,...,t-1$. We introduce and study a simple model of market evolution, where strategies impact the market by their decision to buy or sell. We show that the effect of optimal strategies using memory $m$ can lead to "market conditions" that were not present initially, such as (1) market bubbles and (2) the possibility for a strategy using memory $m' > m$ to make a bigger profit than was initially possible. We suggest ours as a framework to rationalize the technological arms race of quantitative trading firms.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2009

Cell-Probe Lower Bounds for Prefix Sums

We prove that to store n bits x so that each prefix-sum query Sum(i) := sum_{k < i} x_k can be answered by non-adaptively probing q cells of log n bits, one needs memory > n + n/log^{O(q)} n. Our bound matches a recent upper bound of n + n/log^{Omega(q)} n by Patrascu (FOCS 2008), also non-adaptive. We also obtain a n + n/log^{2^{O(q)}} n lower bound for storing a string of balanced brackets so that each Match(i) query can be answered by non-adaptively probing q cells. To obtain these bounds we show that a too efficient data structure allows us to break the correlations between query answers.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2009

Bounded Independence Fools Halfspaces

We show that any distribution on {-1,1}^n that is k-wise independent fools any halfspace h with error \eps for k = O(\log^2(1/\eps) /\eps^2). Up to logarithmic factors, our result matches a lower bound by Benjamini, Gurel-Gurevich, and Peled (2007) showing that k = Ω(1/(\eps^2 \cdot \log(1/\eps))). Using standard constructions of k-wise independent distributions, we obtain the first explicit pseudorandom generators G: {-1,1}^s --> {-1,1}^n that fool halfspaces. Specifically, we fool halfspaces with error eps and seed length s = k \log n = O(\log n \cdot \log^2(1/\eps) /\eps^2). Our approach combines classical tools from real approximation theory with structural results on halfspaces by Servedio (Computational Complexity 2007).

cs.CC↗