arXiv subjects

Emil Constantinescu

Publications and source records attributed to Emil Constantinescu.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

A Machine-Learning-Based Importance Sampling Method to Compute Rare Event Probabilities

We develop a novel computational method for evaluating the extreme excursion probabilities arising from random initialization of nonlinear dynamical systems. The method uses excursion probability theory to formulate a sequence of Bayesian inverse problems that, when solved, yields the biasing distribution. Solving multiple Bayesian inverse problems can be expensive; more so in higher dimensions. To alleviate the computational cost, we build machine-learning-based surrogates to solve the Bayesian inverse problems that give rise to the biasing distribution. This biasing distribution can then be used in an importance sampling procedure to estimate the extreme excursion probabilities.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2020

A scalable matrix-free spectral element approach for unsteady PDE constrained optimization using PETSc/TAO

We provide a new approach for the efficient matrix-free application of the transpose of the Jacobian for the spectral element method for the adjoint based solution of partial differential equation (PDE) constrained optimization. This results in optimizations of nonlinear PDEs using explicit integrators where the integration of the adjoint problem is not more expensive than the forward simulation. Solving PDE constrained optimization problems entails combining expertise from multiple areas, including simulation, computation of derivatives, and optimization. The Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific computation (PETSc) together with its companion package, the Toolkit for Advanced Optimization (TAO), is an integrated numerical software library that contains an algorithmic/software stack for solving linear systems, nonlinear systems, ordinary differential equations, differential algebraic equations, and large-scale optimization problems and, as such, is an ideal tool for performing PDE-constrained optimization. This paper describes an efficient approach in which the software stack provided by PETSc/TAO can be used for large-scale nonlinear time-dependent problems. While time integration can involve a range of high-order methods, both implicit and explicit. The PDE-constrained optimization algorithm used is gradient-based and seamlessly integrated with the simulation of the physical problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Stability Analysis of Interface Conditions for Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling

In this paper we analyze the stability of different coupling strategies for multidomain PDEs that arise in general circulation models used in climate simulations. We focus on fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models that are needed to represent and understand the complicated interactions of these two systems, becoming increasingly important in climate change assessment in recent years. Numerical stability issues typically arise because of different time-stepping strategies applied to the coupled PDE system. In particular, the contributing factors include using large time steps, lack of accurate interface flux, and singe-iteration coupling. We investigate the stability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models for various interface conditions such as the Dirichlet-Neumann condition and the bulk interface condition, which is unique to climate modeling. By analyzing a simplified model, we demonstrate how the parameterization of the bulk condition and other numerical and physical parameters affect the coupling stability.

math.NA↗

arXiv2019

An Optimal Experimental Design Framework for Adaptive Inflation and Covariance Localization for Ensemble Filters

We develop an optimal experimental design framework for adapting the covariance inflation and localization in data assimilation problems. Covariance inflation and localization are ubiquitously employed to alleviate the effect of using ensembles of finite sizes in all practical data assimilation systems. The choice of both the inflation factor and the localization radius can have a significant impact on the performance of the assimilation scheme. These parameters are generally tuned by trial and error, rendering them expensive to optimize in practice. Spatially and temporally varying inflation parameter and localization radii have been recently proposed and have been empirically proven to enhance the performance of the employed assimilation filter. In this study, we present a variational framework for adaptive tuning of the inflation and localization parameters. Each of these parameters is optimized independently, with an objective to minimize the uncertainty in the posterior state. The proposed framework does not assume uncorrelated observations or prior errors and can in principle be applied without expert knowledge about the model and the observations. Thus, it is adequate for handling dense as well as sparse observational networks. We present the mathematical formulation, algorithmic description of the approach, and numerical experiments using the two-layer Lorenz-96 model.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2018

Global sensitivity analysis for statistical model parameters

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is frequently used to analyze the influence of uncertain parameters in mathematical models and simulations. In principle, tools from GSA may be extended to analyze the influence of parameters in statistical models. Such analyses may enable reduced or parsimonious modeling and greater predictive capability. However, difficulties such as parameter correlation, model stochasticity, multivariate model output, and unknown parameter distributions prohibit a direct application of GSA tools to statistical models. By leveraging a loss function associated with the statistical model, we introduce a novel framework to address these difficulties and enable efficient GSA for statistical model parameters. Theoretical and computational properties are considered and illustrated on a synthetic example. The framework is applied to a Gaussian process model from the literature, which depends on 95 parameters. Non-influential parameters are discovered through GSA and a reduced model with equal or stronger predictive capability is constructed by using only 79 parameters.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Estimating Global Errors in Time Stepping

This study introduces new time-stepping strategies with built-in global error estimators. The new methods propagate the defect along with the numerical solution much like solving for the correction or Zadunaisky's procedure; however, the proposed approach allows for overlapped internal computations and, therefore, represents a generalization of the classical numerical schemes for solving differential equations with global error estimation. The resulting algorithms can be effectively represented as general linear methods. We present a few explicit self-starting schemes akin to Runge-Kutta methods with global error estimation and illustrate the theoretical considerations on several examples.

math.NA↗