arXiv subjects

Emil N. Iftekhar

Publications and source records attributed to Emil N. Iftekhar.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19

Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro~2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number $R$, and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in $R$ was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Nachhaltige Strategien gegen die COVID-19-Pandemie in Deutschland im Winter 2021/2022

In this position paper, a large group of interdisciplinary experts outlines response strategies against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the winter of 2021/2022 in Germany. We review the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic, from incidence and vaccination efficacy to hospital capacity. Building on this situation assessment, we illustrate various possible scenarios for the winter, and detail the mechanisms and effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and booster. With this assessment, we want to provide orientation for decision makers about the progress and mitigation of COVID-19.

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2021

The winter dilemma

With winter coming in the northern hemisphere, disadvantageous seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 requires high immunity levels in the population or increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), compared to summer. Otherwise intensive care units (ICUs) might fill up. However, compliance with mandatory NPIs, vaccine uptake, and individual protective measures depend on individuals' opinions and behavior. Opinions, in turn, depend on information, e.g., about vaccine safety or current infection levels. Therefore, understanding how information about the pandemic affects its spread through the modulation of voluntary protection-seeking behaviors is crucial for better preparedness this winter and for future crises.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Mutational signatures and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Lambda variants

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern endangers the long-term control of COVID-19, especially in countries with limited genomic surveillance. In this work, we explored genomic drivers of contagion in Chile. We sequenced 3443 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between January and July 2021, where the Gamma (P.1), Lambda (C.37), Alpha (B.1.1.7), B.1.1.348, and B.1.1 lineages were predominant. Using a Bayesian model tailored for limited genomic surveillance, we found that Lambda and Gamma variants' reproduction numbers were about 5% and 16% larger than Alpha's, respectively. We observed an overabundance of mutations in the Spike gene, strongly correlated with the variant's transmissibility. Furthermore, the variants' mutational signatures featured a breakpoint concurrent with the beginning of vaccination (mostly CoronaVac, an inactivated virus vaccine), indicating an additional putative selective pressure. Thus, our work provides a reliable method for quantifying novel variants' transmissibility under subsampling (as newly-reported Delta, B.1.617.2) and highlights the importance of continuous genomic surveillance.

q-bio.PE↗