arXiv subjects

Emilio Ferrara

Publications and source records attributed to Emilio Ferrara.

At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

Adaptive Search over Sorted Sets

We revisit the classical algorithms for searching over sorted sets to introduce an algorithm refinement, called Adaptive Search, that combines the good features of Interpolation search and those of Binary search. W.r.t. Interpolation search, only a constant number of extra comparisons is introduced. Yet, under diverse input data distributions our algorithm shows costs comparable to that of Interpolation search, i.e., O(log log n) while the worst-case cost is always in O(log n), as with Binary search. On benchmarks drawn from large datasets, both synthetic and real-life, Adaptive search scores better times and lesser memory accesses even than Santoro and Sidney's Interpolation-Binary search.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2015

Parallel clustering of high-dimensional social media data streams

We introduce Cloud DIKW as an analysis environment supporting scientific discovery through integrated parallel batch and streaming processing, and apply it to one representative domain application: social media data stream clustering. Recent work demonstrated that high-quality clusters can be generated by representing the data points using high-dimensional vectors that reflect textual content and social network information. Due to the high cost of similarity computation, sequential implementations of even single-pass algorithms cannot keep up with the speed of real-world streams. This paper presents our efforts to meet the constraints of real-time social stream clustering through parallelization. We focus on two system-level issues. Most stream processing engines like Apache Storm organize distributed workers in the form of a directed acyclic graph, making it difficult to dynamically synchronize the state of parallel workers. We tackle this challenge by creating a separate synchronization channel using a pub-sub messaging system. Due to the sparsity of the high-dimensional vectors, the size of centroids grows quickly as new data points are assigned to the clusters. Traditional synchronization that directly broadcasts cluster centroids becomes too expensive and limits the scalability of the parallel algorithm. We address this problem by communicating only dynamic changes of the clusters rather than the whole centroid vectors. Our algorithm under Cloud DIKW can process the Twitter 10% data stream in real-time with 96-way parallelism. By natural improvements to Cloud DIKW, including advanced collective communication techniques developed in our Harp project, we will be able to process the full Twitter stream in real-time with 1000-way parallelism. Our use of powerful general software subsystems will enable many other applications that need integration of streaming and batch data analytics.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2014

Quality versus quantity in scientific impact

Citation metrics are becoming pervasive in the quantitative evaluation of scholars, journals and institutions. More then ever before, hiring, promotion, and funding decisions rely on a variety of impact metrics that cannot disentangle quality from quantity of scientific output, and are biased by factors such as discipline and academic age. Biases affecting the evaluation of single papers are compounded when one aggregates citation-based metrics across an entire publication record. It is not trivial to compare the quality of two scholars that during their careers have published at different rates in different disciplines in different periods of time. We propose a novel solution based on the generation of a statistical baseline specifically tailored on the academic profile of each researcher. Our method can decouple the roles of quantity and quality of publications to explain how a certain level of impact is achieved. The method is flexible enough to allow for the evaluation of, and fair comparison among, arbitrary collections of papers --- scholar publication records, journals, and entire institutions; and can be extended to simultaneously suppresses any source of bias. We show that our method can capture the quality of the work of Nobel laureates irrespective of number of publications, academic age, and discipline, even when traditional metrics indicate low impact in absolute terms. We further apply our methodology to almost a million scholars and over six thousand journals to measure the impact that cannot be explained by the volume of publications alone.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2014

Clustering memes in social media streams

The problem of clustering content in social media has pervasive applications, including the identification of discussion topics, event detection, and content recommendation. Here we describe a streaming framework for online detection and clustering of memes in social media, specifically Twitter. A pre-clustering procedure, namely protomeme detection, first isolates atomic tokens of information carried by the tweets. Protomemes are thereafter aggregated, based on multiple similarity measures, to obtain memes as cohesive groups of tweets reflecting actual concepts or topics of discussion. The clustering algorithm takes into account various dimensions of the data and metadata, including natural language, the social network, and the patterns of information diffusion. As a result, our system can build clusters of semantically, structurally, and topically related tweets. The clustering process is based on a variant of Online K-means that incorporates a memory mechanism, used to "forget" old memes and replace them over time with the new ones. The evaluation of our framework is carried out by using a dataset of Twitter trending topics. Over a one-week period, we systematically determined whether our algorithm was able to recover the trending hashtags. We show that the proposed method outperforms baseline algorithms that only use content features, as well as a state-of-the-art event detection method that assumes full knowledge of the underlying follower network. We finally show that our online learning framework is flexible, due to its independence of the adopted clustering algorithm, and best suited to work in a streaming scenario.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

On Facebook, most ties are weak

Pervasive socio-technical networks bring new conceptual and technological challenges to developers and users alike. A central research theme is evaluation of the intensity of relations linking users and how they facilitate communication and the spread of information. These aspects of human relationships have been studied extensively in the social sciences under the framework of the "strength of weak ties" theory proposed by Mark Granovetter.13 Some research has considered whether that theory can be extended to online social networks like Facebook, suggesting interaction data can be used to predict the strength of ties. The approaches being used require handling user-generated data that is often not publicly available due to privacy concerns. Here, we propose an alternative definition of weak and strong ties that requires knowledge of only the topology of the social network (such as who is a friend of whom on Facebook), relying on the fact that online social networks, or OSNs, tend to fragment into communities. We thus suggest classifying as weak ties those edges linking individuals belonging to different communities and strong ties as those connecting users in the same community. We tested this definition on a large network representing part of the Facebook social graph and studied how weak and strong ties affect the information-diffusion process. Our findings suggest individuals in OSNs self-organize to create well-connected communities, while weak ties yield cohesion and optimize the coverage of information spread.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Optimal network modularity for information diffusion

We investigate the impact of community structure on information diffusion with the linear threshold model. Our results demonstrate that modular structure may have counter-intuitive effects on information diffusion when social reinforcement is present. We show that strong communities can facilitate global diffusion by enhancing local, intra-community spreading. Using both analytic approaches and numerical simulations, we demonstrate the existence of an optimal network modularity, where global diffusion require the minimal number of early adopters.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Visualizing criminal networks reconstructed from mobile phone records

In the fight against the racketeering and terrorism, knowledge about the structure and the organization of criminal networks is of fundamental importance for both the investigations and the development of efficient strategies to prevent and restrain crimes. Intelligence agencies exploit information obtained from the analysis of large amounts of heterogeneous data deriving from various informative sources including the records of phone traffic, the social networks, surveillance data, interview data, experiential police data, and police intelligence files, to acquire knowledge about criminal networks and initiate accurate and destabilizing actions. In this context, visual representation techniques coordinate the exploration of the structure of the network together with the metrics of social network analysis. Nevertheless, the utility of visualization tools may become limited when the dimension and the complexity of the system under analysis grow beyond certain terms. In this paper we show how we employ some interactive visualization techniques to represent criminal and terrorist networks reconstructed from phone traffic data, namely foci, fisheye and geo-mapping network layouts. These methods allow the exploration of the network through animated transitions among visualization models and local enlargement techniques in order to improve the comprehension of interesting areas. By combining the features of the various visualization models it is possible to gain substantial enhancements with respect to classic visualization models, often unreadable in those cases of great complexity of the network.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

XML Matchers: approaches and challenges

Schema Matching, i.e. the process of discovering semantic correspondences between concepts adopted in different data source schemas, has been a key topic in Database and Artificial Intelligence research areas for many years. In the past, it was largely investigated especially for classical database models (e.g., E/R schemas, relational databases, etc.). However, in the latest years, the widespread adoption of XML in the most disparate application fields pushed a growing number of researchers to design XML-specific Schema Matching approaches, called XML Matchers, aiming at finding semantic matchings between concepts defined in DTDs and XSDs. XML Matchers do not just take well-known techniques originally designed for other data models and apply them on DTDs/XSDs, but they exploit specific XML features (e.g., the hierarchical structure of a DTD/XSD) to improve the performance of the Schema Matching process. The design of XML Matchers is currently a well-established research area. The main goal of this paper is to provide a detailed description and classification of XML Matchers. We first describe to what extent the specificities of DTDs/XSDs impact on the Schema Matching task. Then we introduce a template, called XML Matcher Template, that describes the main components of an XML Matcher, their role and behavior. We illustrate how each of these components has been implemented in some popular XML Matchers. We consider our XML Matcher Template as the baseline for objectively comparing approaches that, at first glance, might appear as unrelated. The introduction of this template can be useful in the design of future XML Matchers. Finally, we analyze commercial tools implementing XML Matchers and introduce two challenging issues strictly related to this topic, namely XML source clustering and uncertainty management in XML Matchers.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2014

Online Popularity and Topical Interests through the Lens of Instagram

Online socio-technical systems can be studied as proxy of the real world to investigate human behavior and social interactions at scale. Here we focus on Instagram, a media-sharing online platform whose popularity has been rising up to gathering hundred millions users. Instagram exhibits a mixture of features including social structure, social tagging and media sharing. The network of social interactions among users models various dynamics including follower/followee relations and users' communication by means of posts/comments. Users can upload and tag media such as photos and pictures, and they can "like" and comment each piece of information on the platform. In this work we investigate three major aspects on our Instagram dataset: (i) the structural characteristics of its network of heterogeneous interactions, to unveil the emergence of self organization and topically-induced community structure; (ii) the dynamics of content production and consumption, to understand how global trends and popular users emerge; (iii) the behavior of users labeling media with tags, to determine how they devote their attention and to explore the variety of their topical interests. Our analysis provides clues to understand human behavior dynamics on socio-technical systems, specifically users and content popularity, the mechanisms of users' interactions in online environments and how collective trends emerge from individuals' topical interests.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Evolution of Online User Behavior During a Social Upheaval

Social media represent powerful tools of mass communication and information diffusion. They played a pivotal role during recent social uprisings and political mobilizations across the world. Here we present a study of the Gezi Park movement in Turkey through the lens of Twitter. We analyze over 2.3 million tweets produced during the 25 days of protest occurred between May and June 2013. We first characterize the spatio-temporal nature of the conversation about the Gezi Park demonstrations, showing that similarity in trends of discussion mirrors geographic cues. We then describe the characteristics of the users involved in this conversation and what roles they played. We study how roles and individual influence evolved during the period of the upheaval. This analysis reveals that the conversation becomes more democratic as events unfold, with a redistribution of influence over time in the user population. We conclude by observing how the online and offline worlds are tightly intertwined, showing that exogenous events, such as political speeches or police actions, affect social media conversations and trigger changes in individual behavior.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Web Data Extraction, Applications and Techniques: A Survey

Web Data Extraction is an important problem that has been studied by means of different scientific tools and in a broad range of applications. Many approaches to extracting data from the Web have been designed to solve specific problems and operate in ad-hoc domains. Other approaches, instead, heavily reuse techniques and algorithms developed in the field of Information Extraction. This survey aims at providing a structured and comprehensive overview of the literature in the field of Web Data Extraction. We provided a simple classification framework in which existing Web Data Extraction applications are grouped into two main classes, namely applications at the Enterprise level and at the Social Web level. At the Enterprise level, Web Data Extraction techniques emerge as a key tool to perform data analysis in Business and Competitive Intelligence systems as well as for business process re-engineering. At the Social Web level, Web Data Extraction techniques allow to gather a large amount of structured data continuously generated and disseminated by Web 2.0, Social Media and Online Social Network users and this offers unprecedented opportunities to analyze human behavior at a very large scale. We discuss also the potential of cross-fertilization, i.e., on the possibility of re-using Web Data Extraction techniques originally designed to work in a given domain, in other domains.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2014

Detecting criminal organizations in mobile phone networks

The study of criminal networks using traces from heterogeneous communication media is acquiring increasing importance in nowadays society. The usage of communication media such as phone calls and online social networks leaves digital traces in the form of metadata that can be used for this type of analysis. The goal of this work is twofold: first we provide a theoretical framework for the problem of detecting and characterizing criminal organizations in networks reconstructed from phone call records. Then, we introduce an expert system to support law enforcement agencies in the task of unveiling the underlying structure of criminal networks hidden in communication data. This platform allows for statistical network analysis, community detection and visual exploration of mobile phone network data. It allows forensic investigators to deeply understand hierarchies within criminal organizations, discovering members who play central role and provide connection among sub-groups. Our work concludes illustrating the adoption of our computational framework for a real-word criminal investigation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Analysis of a heterogeneous social network of humans and cultural objects

Modern online social platforms enable their members to be involved in a broad range of activities like getting friends, joining groups, posting/commenting resources and so on. In this paper we investigate whether a correlation emerges across the different activities a user can take part in. To perform our analysis we focused on aNobii, a social platform with a world-wide user base of book readers, who like to post their readings, give ratings, review books and discuss them with friends and fellow readers. aNobii presents a heterogeneous structure: i) part social network, with user-to-user interactions, ii) part interest network, with the management of book collections, and iii) part folksonomy, with books that are tagged by the users. We analyzed a complete and anonymized snapshot of aNobii and we focused on three specific activities a user can perform, namely her tagging behavior, her tendency to join groups and her aptitude to compile a wishlist reporting the books she is planning to read. In this way each user is associated with a tag-based, a group-based and a wishlist-based profile. Experimental analysis carried out by means of Information Theory tools like entropy and mutual information suggests that tag-based and group-based profiles are in general more informative than wishlist-based ones. Furthermore, we discover that the degree of correlation between the three profiles associated with the same user tend to be small. Hence, user profiling cannot be reduced to considering just any one type of user activity (although important) but it is crucial to incorporate multiple dimensions to effectively describe users preferences and behavior.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

Scientific impact evaluation and the effect of self-citations: mitigating the bias by discounting h-index

In this paper, we propose a measure to assess scientific impact that discounts self-citations and does not require any prior knowledge on the their distribution among publications. This index can be applied to both researchers and journals. In particular, we show that it fills the gap of h-index and similar measures that do not take into account the effect of self-citations for authors or journals impact evaluation. The paper provides with two real-world examples: in the former, we evaluate the research impact of the most productive scholars in Computer Science (according to DBLP); in the latter, we revisit the impact of the journals ranked in the 'Computer Science Applications' section of SCImago. We observe how self-citations, in many cases, affect the rankings obtained according to different measures (including h-index and ch-index), and show how the proposed measure mitigates this effect.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2013

Mixing local and global information for community detection in large networks

The problem of clustering large complex networks plays a key role in several scientific fields ranging from Biology to Sociology and Computer Science. Many approaches to clustering complex networks are based on the idea of maximizing a network modularity function. Some of these approaches can be classified as global because they exploit knowledge about the whole network topology to find clusters. Other approaches, instead, can be interpreted as local because they require only a partial knowledge of the network topology, e.g., the neighbors of a vertex. Global approaches are able to achieve high values of modularity but they do not scale well on large networks and, therefore, they cannot be applied to analyze on-line social networks like Facebook or YouTube. In contrast, local approaches are fast and scale up to large, real-life networks, at the cost of poorer results than those achieved by local methods. In this article we propose a glocal method to maximizing modularity, i.e., our method uses information at the global level, yet its scalability on large networks is comparable to that of local methods. The proposed method is called COmplex Network CLUster DEtection (or, shortly, CONCLUDE.) It works in two stages: in the first stage it uses an information-propagation model, based on random and non-backtracking walks of finite length, to compute the importance of each edge in keeping the network connected (called edge centrality.) Then, edge centrality is used to map network vertices onto points of an Euclidean space and to compute distances between all pairs of connected vertices. In the second stage, CONCLUDE uses the distances computed in the first stage to partition the network into clusters. CONCLUDE is computationally efficient since in the average case its cost is roughly linear in the number of edges of the network.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

Analyzing User Behavior across Social Sharing Environments

In this work we present an in-depth analysis of the user behaviors on different Social Sharing systems. We consider three popular platforms, Flickr, Delicious and StumbleUpon, and, by combining techniques from social network analysis with techniques from semantic analysis, we characterize the tagging behavior as well as the tendency to create friendship relationships of the users of these platforms. The aim of our investigation is to see if (and how) the features and goals of a given Social Sharing system reflect on the behavior of its users and, moreover, if there exists a correlation between the social and tagging behavior of the users. We report our findings in terms of the characteristics of user profiles according to three different dimensions: (i) intensity of user activities, (ii) tag-based characteristics of user profiles, and (iii) semantic characteristics of user profiles.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

Clustering Memes in Social Media

The increasing pervasiveness of social media creates new opportunities to study human social behavior, while challenging our capability to analyze their massive data streams. One of the emerging tasks is to distinguish between different kinds of activities, for example engineered misinformation campaigns versus spontaneous communication. Such detection problems require a formal definition of meme, or unit of information that can spread from person to person through the social network. Once a meme is identified, supervised learning methods can be applied to classify different types of communication. The appropriate granularity of a meme, however, is hardly captured from existing entities such as tags and keywords. Here we present a framework for the novel task of detecting memes by clustering messages from large streams of social data. We evaluate various similarity measures that leverage content, metadata, network features, and their combinations. We also explore the idea of pre-clustering on the basis of existing entities. A systematic evaluation is carried out using a manually curated dataset as ground truth. Our analysis shows that pre-clustering and a combination of heterogeneous features yield the best trade-off between number of clusters and their quality, demonstrating that a simple combination based on pairwise maximization of similarity is as effective as a non-trivial optimization of parameters. Our approach is fully automatic, unsupervised, and scalable for real-time detection of memes in streaming data.

cs.SI↗