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Emilio Ferrara

Publications and source records attributed to Emilio Ferrara.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Network-informed Prompt Engineering against Organized Astroturf Campaigns under Extreme Class Imbalance

Detecting organized political campaigns is of paramount importance in fighting against disinformation on social media. Existing approaches for the identification of such organized actions employ techniques mostly from network science, graph machine learning and natural language processing. Their ultimate goal is to analyze the relationships and interactions (e.g. re-posting) among users and the textual similarities of their posts. Despite their effectiveness in recognizing astroturf campaigns, these methods face significant challenges, notably the class imbalance in available training datasets. To mitigate this issue, recent methods usually resort to data augmentation or increasing the number of positive samples, which may not always be feasible or sufficient in real-world settings. Following a different path, in this paper, we propose a novel framework for identifying astroturf campaigns based solely on large language models (LLMs), introducing a Balanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Balanced RAG) component. Our approach first gives both textual information concerning the posts (in our case tweets) and the user interactions of the social network as input to a language model. Then, through prompt engineering and the proposed Balanced RAG method, it effectively detects coordinated disinformation campaigns on X (Twitter). The proposed framework does not require any training or fine-tuning of the language model. Instead, by strategically harnessing the strengths of prompt engineering and Balanced RAG, it facilitates LLMs to overcome the effects of class imbalance and effectively identify coordinated political campaigns. The experimental results demonstrate that by incorporating the proposed prompt engineering and Balanced RAG methods, our framework outperforms the traditional graph-based baselines, achieving 2x-3x improvements in terms of precision, recall and F1 scores.

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Susceptibility to Unreliable Information Sources: Swift Adoption with Minimal Exposure

Misinformation proliferation on social media platforms is a pervasive threat to the integrity of online public discourse. Genuine users, susceptible to others' influence, often unknowingly engage with, endorse, and re-share questionable pieces of information, collectively amplifying the spread of misinformation. In this study, we introduce an empirical framework to investigate users' susceptibility to influence when exposed to unreliable and reliable information sources. Leveraging two datasets on political and public health discussions on Twitter, we analyze the impact of exposure on the adoption of information sources, examining how the reliability of the source modulates this relationship. Our findings provide evidence that increased exposure augments the likelihood of adoption. Users tend to adopt low-credibility sources with fewer exposures than high-credibility sources, a trend that persists even among non-partisan users. Furthermore, the number of exposures needed for adoption varies based on the source credibility, with extreme ends of the spectrum (very high or low credibility) requiring fewer exposures for adoption. Additionally, we reveal that the adoption of information sources often mirrors users' prior exposure to sources with comparable credibility levels. Our research offers critical insights for mitigating the endorsement of misinformation by vulnerable users, offering a framework to study the dynamics of content exposure and adoption on social media platforms.

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Tracking the 2024 US Presidential Election Chatter on TikTok: A Public Multimodal Dataset

This paper presents the TikTok 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Dataset, a large-scale, resource designed to advance research into political communication and social media dynamics. The dataset comprises 3.14 million videos published on TikTok between November 1, 2023, and October 16, 2024, encompassing video ids and transcripts. Data collection was conducted using the TikTok Research API with a comprehensive set of election-related keywords and hashtags, supplemented by third-party tools to address API limitations and expand content coverage, enabling analysis of hashtag co-occurrence networks that reveal politically aligned hashtags based on ideological affiliations, the evolution of top hashtags over time, and summary statistics that highlight the dataset's scale and richness. This dataset offers insights into TikTok's role in shaping electoral discourse by providing a multimodal view of election-related content. It enables researchers to explore critical topics such as coordinated messaging, misinformation spread, audience engagement, and linguistic trends. The TikTok 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Dataset is publicly available and aims to contribute to the broader understanding of social media's impact on democracy and public opinion.

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Safe Spaces or Toxic Places? Content Moderation and Social Dynamics of Online Eating Disorder Communities

Social media platforms have become critical spaces for discussing mental health concerns, including eating disorders. While these platforms can provide valuable support networks, they may also amplify harmful content that glorifies disordered cognition and self-destructive behaviors. While social media platforms have implemented various content moderation strategies, from stringent to laissez-faire approaches, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how these different moderation practices interact with user engagement in online communities around these sensitive mental health topics. This study addresses this knowledge gap through a comparative analysis of eating disorder discussions across Twitter/X, Reddit, and TikTok. Our findings reveal that while users across all platforms engage similarly in expressing concerns and seeking support, platforms with weaker moderation (like Twitter/X) enable the formation of toxic echo chambers that amplify pro-anorexia rhetoric. These results demonstrate how moderation strategies significantly influence the development and impact of online communities, particularly in contexts involving mental health and self-harm.

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Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events

Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybrid forecasting system that combines human and machine generated forecasts. The system provides a platform where users can interact with machine models and thus anchor their judgments on an objective benchmark. The system also aggregates human and machine forecasts weighting both for propinquity and based on assessed skill while adjusting for overconfidence. We present results from the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) - larger than comparable forecasting tournaments - including 1085 users forecasting 398 real-world forecasting problems over eight months. Our main result is that the hybrid system generated more accurate forecasts compared to a human-only baseline which had no machine generated predictions. We found that skilled forecasters who had access to machine-generated forecasts outperformed those who only viewed historical data. We also demonstrated the inclusion of machine-generated forecasts in our aggregation algorithms improved performance, both in terms of accuracy and scalability. This suggests that hybrid forecasting systems, which potentially require fewer human resources, can be a viable approach for maintaining a competitive level of accuracy over a larger number of forecasting questions.

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Political-LLM: Large Language Models in Political Science

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in political science tasks such as election prediction, sentiment analysis, policy impact assessment, and misinformation detection. Meanwhile, the need to systematically understand how LLMs can further revolutionize the field also becomes urgent. In this work, we--a multidisciplinary team of researchers spanning computer science and political science--present the first principled framework termed Political-LLM to advance the comprehensive understanding of integrating LLMs into computational political science. Specifically, we first introduce a fundamental taxonomy classifying the existing explorations into two perspectives: political science and computational methodologies. In particular, from the political science perspective, we highlight the role of LLMs in automating predictive and generative tasks, simulating behavior dynamics, and improving causal inference through tools like counterfactual generation; from a computational perspective, we introduce advancements in data preparation, fine-tuning, and evaluation methods for LLMs that are tailored to political contexts. We identify key challenges and future directions, emphasizing the development of domain-specific datasets, addressing issues of bias and fairness, incorporating human expertise, and redefining evaluation criteria to align with the unique requirements of computational political science. Political-LLM seeks to serve as a guidebook for researchers to foster an informed, ethical, and impactful use of Artificial Intelligence in political science. Our online resource is available at: http://political-llm.org/.

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What Are The Risks of Living in a GenAI Synthetic Reality? The Generative AI Paradox

Generative AI (GenAI) technologies possess unprecedented potential to reshape our world and our perception of reality. These technologies can amplify traditionally human-centered capabilities, such as creativity and complex problem-solving in socio-technical contexts. By fostering human-AI collaboration, GenAI could enhance productivity, dismantle communication barriers across abilities and cultures, and drive innovation on a global scale. Yet, experts and the public are deeply divided on the implications of GenAI. Concerns range from issues like copyright infringement and the rights of creators whose work trains these models without explicit consent, to the conditions of those employed to annotate vast datasets. Accordingly, new laws and regulatory frameworks are emerging to address these unique challenges. Others point to broader issues, such as economic disruptions from automation and the potential impact on labor markets. Although history suggests that society can adapt to such technological upheavals, the scale and complexity of GenAI's impact warrant careful scrutiny. This paper, however, highlights a subtler, yet potentially more perilous risk of GenAI: the creation of $\textit{personalized synthetic realities}$. GenAI could enable individuals to experience a reality customized to personal desires or shaped by external influences, effectively creating a "filtered" worldview unique to each person. Such personalized synthetic realities could distort how people perceive and interact with the world, leading to a fragmented understanding of shared truths. This paper seeks to raise awareness about these profound and multifaceted risks, emphasizing the potential of GenAI to fundamentally alter the very fabric of our collective reality.

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Explaining Mixtures of Sources in News Articles

Human writers plan, then write. For large language models (LLMs) to play a role in longer-form article generation, we must understand the planning steps humans make before writing. We explore one kind of planning, source-selection in news, as a case-study for evaluating plans in long-form generation. We ask: why do specific stories call for specific kinds of sources? We imagine a generative process for story writing where a source-selection schema is first selected by a journalist, and then sources are chosen based on categories in that schema. Learning the article's plan means predicting the schema initially chosen by the journalist. Working with professional journalists, we adapt five existing schemata and introduce three new ones to describe journalistic plans for the inclusion of sources in documents. Then, inspired by Bayesian latent-variable modeling, we develop metrics to select the most likely plan, or schema, underlying a story, which we use to compare schemata. We find that two schemata: stance and social affiliation best explain source plans in most documents. However, other schemata like textual entailment explain source plans in factually rich topics like "Science". Finally, we find we can predict the most suitable schema given just the article's headline with reasonable accuracy. We see this as an important case-study for human planning, and provides a framework and approach for evaluating other kinds of plans. We release a corpora, NewsSources, with annotations for 4M articles.

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Unfiltered Conversations: A Dataset of 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Discourse on Truth Social

Truth Social, launched as a social media platform with a focus on free speech, has become a prominent space for political discourse, attracting a user base with diverse, yet often conservative, viewpoints. As an emerging platform with minimal content moderation, Truth Social has facilitated discussions around contentious social and political issues but has also seen the spread of conspiratorial and hyper-partisan narratives. In this paper, we introduce and release a comprehensive dataset capturing activity on Truth Social related to the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, including posts, replies, user interactions, content and media. This dataset comprises 1.5 million posts published between February, 2024 and October 2024, and encompasses key user engagement features and posts metadata. Data collection began in June 2024, though it includes posts published earlier, with the oldest post dating back to February 2022. This offers researchers a unique resource to study communication patterns, the formation of online communities, and the dissemination of information within Truth Social in the run-up to the election. By providing an in-depth view of Truth Social's user dynamics and content distribution, this dataset aims to support further research on political discourse within an alt-tech social media platform. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/kashish-s/TruthSocial_2024ElectionInitiative

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A Public Dataset Tracking Social Media Discourse about the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election on Twitter/X

In this paper, we introduce the first release of a large-scale dataset capturing discourse on $\mathbb{X}$ (a.k.a., Twitter) related to the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Our dataset comprises 22 million publicly available posts on X.com, collected from May 1, 2024, to July 31, 2024, using a custom-built scraper, which we describe in detail. By employing targeted keywords linked to key political figures, events, and emerging issues, we aligned data collection with the election cycle to capture evolving public sentiment and the dynamics of political engagement on social media. This dataset offers researchers a robust foundation to investigate critical questions about the influence of social media in shaping political discourse, the propagation of election-related narratives, and the spread of misinformation. We also present a preliminary analysis that highlights prominent hashtags and keywords within the dataset, offering initial insights into the dominant themes and conversations occurring in the lead-up to the election. Our dataset is available at: url{https://github.com/sinking8/usc-x-24-us-election

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Unearthing a Billion Telegram Posts about the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Development of a Public Dataset

With its lenient moderation policies and long-standing associations with potentially unlawful activities, Telegram has become an incubator for problematic content, frequently featuring conspiratorial, hyper-partisan, and fringe narratives. In the political sphere, these concerns are amplified by reports of Telegram channels being used to organize violent acts, such as those that occurred during the Capitol Hill attack on January 6, 2021. As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, Telegram remains a focal arena for societal and political discourse, warranting close attention from the research community, regulators, and the media. Based on these premises, we introduce and release a Telegram dataset focused on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, featuring over 30,000 chats and half a billion messages, including chat details, profile pictures, messages, and user information. We constructed a network of chats and analyzed the 500 most central ones, examining their shared messages. This resource represents the largest public Telegram dataset to date, offering an unprecedented opportunity to study political discussion on Telegram in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. election. We will continue to collect data until the end of 2024, and routinely update the dataset released at: https://github.com/leonardo-blas/usc-tg-24-us-election

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Large Language Models for Wearable Sensor-Based Human Activity Recognition, Health Monitoring, and Behavioral Modeling: A Survey of Early Trends, Datasets, and Challenges

The proliferation of wearable technology enables the generation of vast amounts of sensor data, offering significant opportunities for advancements in health monitoring, activity recognition, and personalized medicine. However, the complexity and volume of this data present substantial challenges in data modeling and analysis, which have been tamed with approaches spanning time series modeling to deep learning techniques. The latest frontier in this domain is the adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 and Llama, for data analysis, modeling, understanding, and generation of human behavior through the lens of wearable sensor data. This survey explores current trends and challenges in applying LLMs for sensor-based human activity recognition and behavior modeling. We discuss the nature of wearable sensors data, the capabilities and limitations of LLMs to model them and their integration with traditional machine learning techniques. We also identify key challenges, including data quality, computational requirements, interpretability, and privacy concerns. By examining case studies and successful applications, we highlight the potential of LLMs in enhancing the analysis and interpretation of wearable sensors data. Finally, we propose future directions for research, emphasizing the need for improved preprocessing techniques, more efficient and scalable models, and interdisciplinary collaboration. This survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the intersection between wearable sensors data and LLMs, offering insights into the current state and future prospects of this emerging field.

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"Can You Play Anything Else?" Understanding Play Style Flexibility in League of Legends

This study investigates the concept of flexibility within League of Legends, a popular online multiplayer game, focusing on the relationship between user adaptability and team success. Utilizing a dataset encompassing players of varying skill levels and play styles, we calculate two measures of flexibility for each player: overall flexibility and temporal flexibility. Our findings suggest that the flexibility of a user is dependent upon a user's preferred play style, and flexibility does impact match outcome. This work also shows that skill level not only indicates how willing a player is to adapt their play style but also how their adaptability changes over time. This paper highlights the duality and balance of specialization versus flexibility, providing insights that can inform strategic planning, collaboration and resource allocation in competitive environments.

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Tracking the 2024 US Presidential Election Chatter on Tiktok: A Public Multimodal Dataset

This paper documents our release of a large-scale data collection of TikTok posts related to the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Our current data comprises 1.8 million videos published between November 1, 2023, and May 26, 2024. Its exploratory analysis identifies the most common keywords, hashtags, and bigrams in both Spanish and English posts, focusing on the election and the two main Presidential candidates, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. We utilized the TikTok Research API, incorporating various election-related keywords and hashtags, to capture the full scope of relevant content. To address the limitations of the TikTok Research API, we also employed third-party scrapers to expand our dataset. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/gabbypinto/US2024PresElectionTikToks

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Tracing the Unseen: Uncovering Human Trafficking Patterns in Job Listings

In the shadow of the digital revolution, the insidious issue of human trafficking has found new breeding grounds within the realms of social media and online job boards. Previous research efforts have predominantly centered on identifying victims via the analysis of escort advertisements. However, our work shifts the focus towards enabling a proactive approach: pinpointing potential traffickers before they lure their preys through false job opportunities. In this study, we collect and analyze a vast dataset comprising over a quarter million job postings collected from eight relevant regions across the United States, spanning nearly two decades (2006-2024). The job boards we considered are specifically catered towards Chinese-speaking immigrants in the US. We classify the job posts into distinct groups based on the self-reported information of the posting user. Our investigation into the types of advertised opportunities, the modes of preferred contact, and the frequency of postings uncovers the patterns characterizing suspicious ads. Additionally, we highlight how external events such as health emergencies and conflicts appear to strongly correlate with increased volume of suspicious job posts: traffickers are more likely to prey upon vulnerable populations in times of crises. This research underscores the imperative for a deeper dive into how online job boards and communication platforms could be unwitting facilitators of human trafficking. More importantly, it calls for the urgent formulation of targeted strategies to dismantle these digital conduits of exploitation.

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Word Embedding for Social Sciences: An Interdisciplinary Survey

To extract essential information from complex data, computer scientists have been developing machine learning models that learn low-dimensional representation mode. From such advances in machine learning research, not only computer scientists but also social scientists have benefited and advanced their research because human behavior or social phenomena lies in complex data. However, this emerging trend is not well documented because different social science fields rarely cover each other's work, resulting in fragmented knowledge in the literature. To document this emerging trend, we survey recent studies that apply word embedding techniques to human behavior mining. We built a taxonomy to illustrate the methods and procedures used in the surveyed papers, aiding social science researchers in contextualizing their research within the literature on word embedding applications. This survey also conducts a simple experiment to warn that common similarity measurements used in the literature could yield different results even if they return consistent results at an aggregate level.

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Can Language Model Moderators Improve the Health of Online Discourse?

Conversational moderation of online communities is crucial to maintaining civility for a constructive environment, but it is challenging to scale and harmful to moderators. The inclusion of sophisticated natural language generation modules as a force multiplier to aid human moderators is a tantalizing prospect, but adequate evaluation approaches have so far been elusive. In this paper, we establish a systematic definition of conversational moderation effectiveness grounded on moderation literature and establish design criteria for conducting realistic yet safe evaluation. We then propose a comprehensive evaluation framework to assess models' moderation capabilities independently of human intervention. With our framework, we conduct the first known study of language models as conversational moderators, finding that appropriately prompted models that incorporate insights from social science can provide specific and fair feedback on toxic behavior but struggle to influence users to increase their levels of respect and cooperation.

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Hidden in Plain Sight: Exploring the Intersections of Mental Health, Eating Disorders, and Content Moderation on TikTok

Social media platforms actively moderate content glorifying harmful behaviors like eating disorders, which include anorexia and bulimia. However, users have adapted to evade moderation by using coded hashtags. Our study investigates the prevalence of moderation evaders on the popular social media platform TikTok and contrasts their use and emotional valence with mainstream hashtags. We notice that moderation evaders and mainstream hashtags appear together, indicating that vulnerable users might inadvertently encounter harmful content even when searching for mainstream terms. Additionally, through an analysis of emotional expressions in video descriptions and comments, we find that mainstream hashtags generally promote positive engagement, while moderation evaders evoke a wider range of emotions, including heightened negativity. These findings provide valuable insights for content creators, platform moderation efforts, and interventions aimed at cultivating a supportive online environment for discussions on mental health and eating disorders.

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