arXiv subjects

Emilio Ferrara

Publications and source records attributed to Emilio Ferrara.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Graph Signal Recovery Using Restricted Boltzmann Machines

We propose a model-agnostic pipeline to recover graph signals from an expert system by exploiting the content addressable memory property of restricted Boltzmann machine and the representational ability of a neural network. The proposed pipeline requires the deep neural network that is trained on a downward machine learning task with clean data, data which is free from any form of corruption or incompletion. We show that denoising the representations learned by the deep neural networks is usually more effective than denoising the data itself. Although this pipeline can deal with noise in any dataset, it is particularly effective for graph-structured datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Political Partisanship and Anti-Science Attitudes in Online Discussions about Covid-19

The novel coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage communities across the US. Opinion surveys identified importance of political ideology in shaping perceptions of the pandemic and compliance with preventive measures. Here, we use social media data to study complexity of polarization. We analyze a large dataset of tweets related to the pandemic collected between January and May of 2020, and develop methods to classify the ideological alignment of users along the moderacy (hardline vs moderate), political (liberal vs conservative) and science (anti-science vs pro-science) dimensions. While polarization along the science and political dimensions are correlated, politically moderate users are more likely to be aligned with the pro-science views, and politically hardline users with anti-science views. Contrary to expectations, we do not find that polarization grows over time; instead, we see increasing activity by moderate pro-science users. We also show that anti-science conservatives tend to tweet from the Southern US, while anti-science moderates from the Western states. Our findings shed light on the multi-dimensional nature of polarization, and the feasibility of tracking polarized opinions about the pandemic across time and space through social media data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

#Election2020: The First Public Twitter Dataset on the 2020 US Presidential Election

The integrity of democratic political discourse is at the core to guarantee free and fair elections. With social media often dictating the tones and trends of politics-related discussion, it is of paramount important to be able to study online chatter, especially in the run up to important voting events, like in the case of the upcoming November 3, 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Limited access to social media data is often the first barrier to impede, hinder, or slow down progress, and ultimately our understanding of online political discourse. To mitigate this issue and try to empower the Computational Social Science research community, we decided to publicly release a massive-scale, longitudinal dataset of U.S. politics- and election-related tweets. This multilingual dataset that we have been collecting for over one year encompasses hundreds of millions of tweets and tracks all salient U.S. politics trends, actors, and events between 2019 and 2020. It predates and spans the whole period of Republican and Democratic primaries, with real-time tracking of all presidential contenders of both sides of the isle. After that, it focuses on presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Our dataset release is curated, documented and will be constantly updated on a weekly-basis, until the November 3, 2020 election and beyond. We hope that the academic community, computational journalists, and research practitioners alike will all take advantage of our dataset to study relevant scientific and social issues, including problems like misinformation, information manipulation, interference, and distortion of online political discourse that have been prevalent in the context of recent election events in the United States and worldwide. Our dataset is available at: https://github.com/echen102/us-pres-elections-2020

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Leveraging Clickstream Trajectories to Reveal Low-Quality Workers in Crowdsourced Forecasting Platforms

Crowdwork often entails tackling cognitively-demanding and time-consuming tasks. Crowdsourcing can be used for complex annotation tasks, from medical imaging to geospatial data, and such data powers sensitive applications, such as health diagnostics or autonomous driving. However, the existence and prevalence of underperforming crowdworkers is well-recognized, and can pose a threat to the validity of crowdsourcing. In this study, we propose the use of a computational framework to identify clusters of underperforming workers using clickstream trajectories. We focus on crowdsourced geopolitical forecasting. The framework can reveal different types of underperformers, such as workers with forecasts whose accuracy is far from the consensus of the crowd, those who provide low-quality explanations for their forecasts, and those who simply copy-paste their forecasts from other users. Our study suggests that clickstream clustering and analysis are fundamental tools to diagnose the performance of crowdworkers in platforms leveraging the wisdom of crowds.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

ReCOVery: A Multimodal Repository for COVID-19 News Credibility Research

First identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 has been declared as a global emergency in January, and a pandemic in March 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Along with this pandemic, we are also experiencing an "infodemic" of information with low credibility such as fake news and conspiracies. In this work, we present ReCOVery, a repository designed and constructed to facilitate research on combating such information regarding COVID-19. We first broadly search and investigate ~2,000 news publishers, from which 60 are identified with extreme [high or low] levels of credibility. By inheriting the credibility of the media on which they were published, a total of 2,029 news articles on coronavirus, published from January to May 2020, are collected in the repository, along with 140,820 tweets that reveal how these news articles have spread on the Twitter social network. The repository provides multimodal information of news articles on coronavirus, including textual, visual, temporal, and network information. The way that news credibility is obtained allows a trade-off between dataset scalability and label accuracy. Extensive experiments are conducted to present data statistics and distributions, as well as to provide baseline performances for predicting news credibility so that future methods can be compared. Our repository is available at http://coronavirus-fakenews.com.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Learning to Reason in Round-based Games: Multi-task Sequence Generation for Purchasing Decision Making in First-person Shooters

Sequential reasoning is a complex human ability, with extensive previous research focusing on gaming AI in a single continuous game, round-based decision makings extending to a sequence of games remain less explored. Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO), as a round-based game with abundant expert demonstrations, provides an excellent environment for multi-player round-based sequential reasoning. In this work, we propose a Sequence Reasoner with Round Attribute Encoder and Multi-Task Decoder to interpret the strategies behind the round-based purchasing decisions. We adopt few-shot learning to sample multiple rounds in a match, and modified model agnostic meta-learning algorithm Reptile for the meta-learning loop. We formulate each round as a multi-task sequence generation problem. Our state representations combine action encoder, team encoder, player features, round attribute encoder, and economy encoders to help our agent learn to reason under this specific multi-player round-based scenario. A complete ablation study and comparison with the greedy approach certify the effectiveness of our model. Our research will open doors for interpretable AI for understanding episodic and long-term purchasing strategies beyond the gaming community.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Having a Bad Day? Detecting the Impact of Atypical Life Events Using Wearable Sensors

Life events can dramatically affect our psychological state and work performance. Stress, for example, has been linked to professional dissatisfaction, increased anxiety, and workplace burnout. We explore the impact of positive and negative life events on a number of psychological constructs through a multi-month longitudinal study of hospital and aerospace workers. Through causal inference, we demonstrate that positive life events increase positive affect, while negative events increase stress, anxiety and negative affect. While most events have a transient effect on psychological states, major negative events, like illness or attending a funeral, can reduce positive affect for multiple days. Next, we assess whether these events can be detected through wearable sensors, which can cheaply and unobtrusively monitor health-related factors. We show that these sensors paired with embedding-based learning models can be used ``in the wild'' to capture atypical life events in hundreds of workers across both datasets. Overall our results suggest that automated interventions based on physiological sensing may be feasible to help workers regulate the negative effects of life events.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Detecting multi-timescale consumption patterns from receipt data: A non-negative tensor factorization approach

Understanding consumer behavior is an important task, not only for developing marketing strategies but also for the management of economic policies. Detecting consumption patterns, however, is a high-dimensional problem in which various factors that would affect consumers' behavior need to be considered, such as consumers' demographics, circadian rhythm, seasonal cycles, etc. Here, we develop a method to extract multi-timescale expenditure patterns of consumers from a large dataset of scanned receipts. We use a non-negative tensor factorization (NTF) to detect intra- and inter-week consumption patterns at one time. The proposed method allows us to characterize consumers based on their consumption patterns that are correlated over different timescales.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Network Modularity Controls the Speed of Information Diffusion

The rapid diffusion of information and the adoption of social behaviors are of critical importance in situations as diverse as collective actions, pandemic prevention, or advertising and marketing. Although the dynamics of large cascades have been extensively studied in various contexts, few have systematically examined the impact of network topology on the efficiency of information diffusion. Here, by employing the linear threshold model on networks with communities, we demonstrate that a prominent network feature---the modular structure---strongly affects the speed of information diffusion in complex contagion. Our simulations show that there always exists an optimal network modularity for the most efficient spreading process. Beyond this critical value, either a stronger or a weaker modular structure actually hinders the diffusion speed. These results are confirmed by an analytical approximation. We further demonstrate that the optimal modularity varies with both the seed size and the target cascade size, and is ultimately dependent on the network under investigation. We underscore the importance of our findings in applications from marketing to epidemiology, from neuroscience to engineering, where the understanding of the structural design of complex systems focuses on the efficiency of information propagation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Learning Behavioral Representations from Wearable Sensors

Continuous collection of physiological data from wearable sensors enables temporal characterization of individual behaviors. Understanding the relation between an individual's behavioral patterns and psychological states can help identify strategies to improve quality of life. One challenge in analyzing physiological data is extracting the underlying behavioral states from the temporal sensor signals and interpreting them. Here, we use a non-parametric Bayesian approach to model sensor data from multiple people and discover the dynamic behaviors they share. We apply this method to data collected from sensors worn by a population of hospital workers and show that the learned states can cluster participants into meaningful groups and better predict their cognitive and psychological states. This method offers a way to learn interpretable compact behavioral representations from multivariate sensor signals.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Detecting Troll Behavior via Inverse Reinforcement Learning: A Case Study of Russian Trolls in the 2016 US Election

Since the 2016 US Presidential election, social media abuse has been eliciting massive concern in the academic community and beyond. Preventing and limiting the malicious activity of users, such as trolls and bots, in their manipulation campaigns is of paramount importance for the integrity of democracy, public health, and more. However, the automated detection of troll accounts is an open challenge. In this work, we propose an approach based on Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) to capture troll behavior and identify troll accounts. We employ IRL to infer a set of online incentives that may steer user behavior, which in turn highlights behavioral differences between troll and non-troll accounts, enabling their accurate classification. As a study case, we consider the troll accounts identified by the US Congress during the investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 US Presidential election. We report promising results: the IRL-based approach is able to accurately detect troll accounts (AUC=89.1%). The differences in the predictive features between the two classes of accounts enables a principled understanding of the distinctive behaviors reflecting the incentives trolls and non-trolls respond to.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Tracking Social Media Discourse About the COVID-19 Pandemic: Development of a Public Coronavirus Twitter Data Set

At the time of this writing, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has already put tremendous strain on many countries' citizens, resources and economies around the world. Social distancing measures, travel bans, self-quarantines, and business closures are changing the very fabric of societies worldwide. With people forced out of public spaces, much conversation about these phenomena now occurs online, e.g., on social media platforms like Twitter. In this paper, we describe a multilingual coronavirus (COVID-19) Twitter dataset that we have been continuously collecting since January 22, 2020. We are making our dataset available to the research community (https://github.com/echen102/COVID-19-TweetIDs). It is our hope that our contribution will enable the study of online conversation dynamics in the context of a planetary-scale epidemic outbreak of unprecedented proportions and implications. This dataset could also help track scientific coronavirus misinformation and unverified rumors, or enable the understanding of fear and panic -- and undoubtedly more. Ultimately, this dataset may contribute towards enabling informed solutions and prescribing targeted policy interventions to fight this global crisis.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

What Types of COVID-19 Conspiracies are Populated by Twitter Bots?

With people moving out of physical public spaces due to containment measures to tackle the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, online platforms become even more prominent tools to understand social discussion. Studying social media can be informative to assess how we are collectively coping with this unprecedented global crisis. However, social media platforms are also populated by bots, automated accounts that can amplify certain topics of discussion at the expense of others. In this paper, we study 43.3M English tweets about COVID-19 and provide early evidence of the use of bots to promote political conspiracies in the United States, in stark contrast with humans who focus on public health concerns.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Charting the Landscape of Online Cryptocurrency Manipulation

Cryptocurrencies represent one of the most attractive markets for financial speculation. As a consequence, they have attracted unprecedented attention on social media. Besides genuine discussions and legitimate investment initiatives, several deceptive activities have flourished. In this work, we chart the online cryptocurrency landscape across multiple platforms. To reach our goal, we collected a large dataset, composed of more than 50M messages published by almost 7M users on Twitter, Telegram and Discord, over three months. We performed bot detection on Twitter accounts sharing invite links to Telegram and Discord channels, and we discovered that more than 56% of them were bots or suspended accounts. Then, we applied topic modeling techniques to Telegram and Discord messages, unveiling two different deception schemes - "pump-and-dump" and "Ponzi" - and identifying the channels involved in these frauds. Whereas on Discord we found a negligible level of deception, on Telegram we retrieved 296 channels involved in pump-and-dump and 432 involved in Ponzi schemes, accounting for a striking 20% of the total. Moreover, we observed that 93% of the invite links shared by Twitter bots point to Telegram pump-and-dump channels, shedding light on a little-known social bot activity. Charting the landscape of online cryptocurrency manipulation can inform actionable policies to fight such abuse.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Predictability limit of partially observed systems

Applications from finance to epidemiology and cyber-security require accurate forecasts of dynamic phenomena, which are often only partially observed. We demonstrate that a system's predictability degrades as a function of temporal sampling, regardless of the adopted forecasting model. We quantify the loss of predictability due to sampling, and show that it cannot be recovered by using external signals. We validate the generality of our theoretical findings in real-world partially observed systems representing infectious disease outbreaks, online discussions, and software development projects. On a variety of prediction tasks---forecasting new infections, the popularity of topics in online discussions, or interest in cryptocurrency projects---predictability irrecoverably decays as a function of sampling, unveiling fundamental predictability limits in partially observed systems.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Collaboration Drives Individual Productivity

How does the number of collaborators affect individual productivity? Results of prior research have been conflicting, with some studies reporting an increase in individual productivity as the number of collaborators grows, while other studies showing that the {free-rider effect} skews the effort invested by individuals, making larger groups less productive. The difference between these schools of thought is substantial: if a super-scaling effect exists, as suggested by former studies, then as groups grow, their productivity will increase even faster than their size, super-linearly improving their efficiency. We address this question by studying two planetary-scale collaborative systems: GitHub and Wikipedia. By analyzing the activity of over 2 million users on these platforms, we discover that the interplay between group size and productivity exhibits complex, previously-unobserved dynamics: the productivity of smaller groups scales super-linearly with group size, but saturates at larger sizes. This effect is not an artifact of the heterogeneity of productivity: the relation between group size and productivity holds at the individual level. People tend to do more when collaborating with more people. We propose a generative model of individual productivity that captures the non-linearity in collaboration effort. The proposed model is able to explain and predict group work dynamics in GitHub and Wikipedia by capturing their maximally informative behavioral features, and it paves the way for a principled, data-driven science of collaboration.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2019

Bots, elections, and social media: a brief overview

Bots, software-controlled accounts that operate on social media, have been used to manipulate and deceive. We studied the characteristics and activity of bots around major political events, including elections in various countries. In this chapter, we summarize our findings of bot operations in the context of the 2016 and 2018 US Presidential and Midterm elections and the 2017 French Presidential election.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Benchmarks for Graph Embedding Evaluation

Graph embedding is the task of representing nodes of a graph in a low-dimensional space and its applications for graph tasks have gained significant traction in academia and industry. The primary difference among the many recently proposed graph embedding methods is the way they preserve the inherent properties of the graphs. However, in practice, comparing these methods is very challenging. The majority of methods report performance boosts on few selected real graphs. Therefore, it is difficult to generalize these performance improvements to other types of graphs. Given a graph, it is currently impossible to quantify the advantages of one approach over another. In this work, we introduce a principled framework to compare graph embedding methods. Our goal is threefold: (i) provide a unifying framework for comparing the performance of various graph embedding methods, (ii) establish a benchmark with real-world graphs that exhibit different structural properties, and (iii) provide users with a tool to identify the best graph embedding method for their data. This paper evaluates 4 of the most influential graph embedding methods and 4 traditional link prediction methods against a corpus of 100 real-world networks with varying properties. We organize the 100 networks in terms of their properties to get a better understanding of the embedding performance of these popular methods. We use the comparisons on our 100 benchmark graphs to define GFS-score, that can be applied to any embedding method to quantify its performance. We rank the state-of-the-art embedding approaches using the GFS-score and show that it can be used to understand and evaluate novel embedding approaches. We envision that the proposed framework (https://www.github.com/palash1992/GEM-Benchmark) will serve the community as a benchmarking platform to test and compare the performance of future graph embedding techniques.

cs.SI↗