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Emilio Ferrucci

Publications and source records attributed to Emilio Ferrucci.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Concise $(\varepsilon,r)$-representations of a path

Paths $X \colon [0,T] \to \mathbb R^d$ are traditionally stored in finite memory as time series. Recent research has underscored the benefits of instead representing them as collections of iterated integrals $\{\int_{0 < u_1 < \ldots < u_n < T} \mathrm{d} X_{u_1} \otimes \cdots \otimes \mathrm{d} X_{u_n}\}_{n = 0}^N$. These two encodings can be viewed as the extrema on a two-parameter spectrum of representations of the path as degree-$N$ signatures on $m$ intervals in a partition of $[0,T]$. We ask the question of which such representation takes up the least amount of memory, measured as number of real values needed to store the truncated log-signature, subject to the constraint of it being able to approximate solutions to linear controlled differential equations (CDEs) $\mathrm{d} Y = AY \mathrm{d} X$ with $|A| \leq r$ at accuracy at least $\varepsilon$. Estimating the error in terms of the length of $X$, we find that the optimal representation generally lies strictly in between the two naive choices $N = 1$ or $m = 1$, and derive its asymptotics as $r \to \infty$ and $\varepsilon \to 0^+$. Similar considerations can be made when estimating the error in terms of the $p$-variation norm of $X$: in this regime we prove an error bound of the degree-$N$ Euler scheme for linear CDEs with decay in both $m$ and (factorially) in $N$ with the other arbitrarily fixed. We conclude by setting up the analogous problem for SDEs, with the error measured in $L^2$, and derive a similar $L^2$-Euler error estimate for It\^o SDEs with drift. We include an empirical study of the optimisation problem, which we demonstrate for toy examples of $p$-rough paths and for fractional Brownian motion.

math.NA

Locality of rough path lifts

Every H\"older continuous path $X$ admits a geometric rough path lift $\boldsymbol{X}$ by the Lyons--Victoir extension theorem. A natural question that emerges when lifting more than one path segment at once is that of \emph{locality}, namely whether the lift $\boldsymbol{X}_{s,t}$ only depends on the increments $X_{s,u}$, $u \in [s,t]$. We investigate the locality of rough path lifts in deterministic and stochastic settings. On the deterministic side, we show that no local, homogeneous rough path lift can be defined on $\gamma$-H\"older paths for all $\gamma \leq 1/2$. More strongly, we show that no L\'evy area can be defined which is at the same time bounded, with no further regularity assumptions, and either local and homogeneous or time translation--invariant. We moreover show that the boundedness requirement is sharp: an unbounded, local, time translation--invariant, and bilinear L\'evy area can be defined on all continuous paths. On the stochastic side, we classify all local, square-integrable rough path lifts of $d$-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H \in (0,1/2]$. For $H \leq 1/4$, we show that no such lifts exist when $d \geq 2$, while for $H>1/4$, we show that all such lifts are stochastic translations of the canonical rough path. We further refine the classification by requiring invariance in law under time translation, scaling, and coordinate permutation, and show that only the canonical lift satisfies these constraints except at \(H=1/3\), for which there is a one-parameter family of lifts. Finally, we present an argument showing that scale-invariance forces a local $\eta$-H\"older rough path lift of fractional Brownian motion to be square-integrable, allowing scale-invariance to replace square-integrability in our classification and non-existence results.

math.PR

Orthogonal polynomials on path-space

We consider the orthogonalisation of the signature of a stochastic process as the analogue of orthogonal polynomials on path-space. Under an infinite radius of convergence assumption, we prove density of linear functions on the signature in $L^p$ functions on grouplike elements, making it possible to represent a square-integrable function on (rough) paths as an $L^2$-convergent series. By viewing the shuffle algebra as commutative polynomials on the free Lie algebra, we revisit much of the theory of classical orthogonal polynomials in several variables, such as the recurrence relation and Favard's theorem. Finally, we restrict our attention to the case of Brownian motion with and without drift, and prove that dimension-independent orthogonal signature exists with drift but not without. We end with numerical examples of how orthogonal signature polynomials of Brownian motion can be applied for the approximation of functions on paths sampled from the Wiener measure.

math.PR

Wick integrals

We introduce the Wick integral $\int_s^t f(X_u) \Diamond \mathrm{d} X_u$ for a class of stochastic processes $X$ of bounded $2 > p$-variation which are not necessarily Gaussian. The integral is defined for a class of entire functions $f$ depending on the process. In the case of $1/2 < H$-fractional Brownian motion, the Wick integral agrees with the divergence operator in Malliavin calculus. It satisfies a correction formula with the Young integral $\int f(X)\mathrm{d} X$ and an It\^o formula which have infinitely many correction terms, given by integration against the cumulant functions of $X$, and reduce to familiar identities in the Gaussian case. These results are obtained by developing diagram formulae for Appell polynomials w.r.t.\ a linear span of reference random variables and extending them to series via absolute convergence in $L^1$. Our theory applies to processes taking values in the second Wiener chaos, such as the Rosenblatt process.

math.PR

Rough differential equations for volatility

We introduce a canonical way of performing the joint lift of a Brownian motion $W$ and a low-regularity adapted stochastic rough path $\mathbf{X}$, extending [Diehl, Oberhauser and Riedel (2015). A L\'evy area between Brownian motion and rough paths with applications to robust nonlinear filtering and rough partial differential equations]. Applying this construction to the case where $\mathbf{X}$ is the canonical lift of a one-dimensional fractional Brownian motion (possibly correlated with $W$) completes the partial rough path of [Fukasawa and Takano (2024). A partial rough path space for rough volatility]. We use this to model rough volatility with the versatile toolkit of rough differential equations (RDEs), namely by taking the price and volatility processes to be the solution to a single RDE. We argue that our framework is already interesting when $W$ and $X$ are independent, as correlation between the price and volatility can be introduced in the dynamics. The lead-lag scheme of [Flint, Hambly, and Lyons (2016). Discretely sampled signals and the rough Hoff process] is extended to our fractional setting as an approximation theory for the rough path in the correlated case. Continuity of the solution map transforms this into a numerical scheme for RDEs. We numerically test this framework and use it to calibrate a simple new rough volatility model to market data.

q-fin.MF

High-degree cubature on Wiener space through unshuffle expansions

Utilising classical results on the structure of Hopf algebras, we develop a novel approach for the construction of cubature formulae on Wiener space based on unshuffle expansions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by constructing the first explicit degree-7 cubature formula on $d$-dimensional Wiener space with drift, in the sense of Lyons and Victoir. The support of our degree-7 formula is significantly smaller than that of currently implemented or proposed constructions.

math.PR

Signature Kernel Conditional Independence Tests in Causal Discovery for Stochastic Processes

Inferring the causal structure underlying stochastic dynamical systems from observational data holds great promise in domains ranging from science and health to finance. Such processes can often be accurately modeled via stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which naturally imply causal relationships via "which variables enter the differential of which other variables". In this paper, we develop conditional independence (CI) constraints on coordinate processes over selected intervals that are Markov with respect to the acyclic dependence graph (allowing self-loops) induced by a general SDE model. We then provide a sound and complete causal discovery algorithm, capable of handling both fully and partially observed data, and uniquely recovering the underlying or induced ancestral graph by exploiting time directionality assuming a CI oracle. Finally, to make our algorithm practically usable, we also propose a flexible, consistent signature kernel-based CI test to infer these constraints from data. We extensively benchmark the CI test in isolation and as part of our causal discovery algorithms, outperforming existing approaches in SDE models and beyond.

cs.LG

On the Wiener Chaos Expansion of the Signature of a Gaussian Process

We compute the Wiener chaos decomposition of the signature for a class of Gaussian processes, which contains fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter H in (1/4, 1). At level 0, our result yields an expression for the expected signature of such processes, which determines their law [CL16]. In particular, this formula simultaneously extends both the one for 1/2 < H-fBm [BC07] and the one for Brownian motion (H = 1/2) [Faw03], to the general case H > 1/4, thereby resolving an established open problem. Other processes studied include continuous and centred Gaussian semimartingales.

math.PR

Branched It\^o formula and natural It\^o-Stratonovich isomorphism

Branched rough paths, defined as paths with values in the character group of the Connes-Kreimer Hopf algebra $\mathcal{H}_\mathrm{CK}$, constitute integration theories that may fail to satisfy the usual integration by parts identity. Using known results on the primitive elements of $\mathcal{H}_\mathrm{CK}$ we can view it as a commutative cofree Hopf algebra (i.e. a commutative $\mathbf{B}_\infty$-algebra) and thus write an explicit change-of-variable formula for solutions to rough differential equations. This formula restricts to the well-known It\^o formula in the very special case of semimartingales. In addition, we establish an isomorphism between $\mathcal{H}_\mathrm{CK}$ and the shuffle algebra over its primitives, which extends Hoffman's exponential for the quasi-shuffle algebra, and can therefore be viewed as a far-reaching generalisation of the usual It\^o-Stratonovich correction formula for semimartingales. Indeed, this can be stated as a characterisation of the algebra structure of any commutative $\mathbf{B}_\infty$-algebra. Compared to previous approaches, this transformation has the key property of being natural in the decorating vector space. We study the one-dimensional case more closely, by introducing the branched analogue of the Kailath-Segall polynomials and Dol\'eans-Dade exponential, and conclude with some examples of branched rough path lifts of a stochastic process which are not quasi-geometric.

math.PR

A Transfer Principle for Branched Rough Paths

A branched rough path $X$ consists of a rough integral calculus for $X \colon [0, T] \to \mathbb R^d$ which may fail to satisfy integration by parts. Using Kelly's bracket extension [Kel12], we define a notion of pushforward of branched rough paths through smooth maps, which leads naturally to a definition of branched rough path on a smooth manifold. Once a covariant derivative is fixed, we are able to give a canonical, coordinate-free definition of integral against such rough paths. After characterising quasi-geometric rough paths in terms of their bracket extension, we use the same framework to define manifold-valued rough differential equations (RDEs) driven by quasi-geometric rough paths. These results extend previous work on $3 > p$-rough paths [ABCRF22], itself a generalisation of the Ito calculus on manifolds developed by Meyer and Emery [Mey81, E89, E90], to the setting of non-geometric rough calculus of arbitrarily low regularity.

math.CA

A Neural RDE approach for continuous-time non-Markovian stochastic control problems

We propose a novel framework for solving continuous-time non-Markovian stochastic control problems by means of neural rough differential equations (Neural RDEs) introduced in Morrill et al. (2021). Non-Markovianity naturally arises in control problems due to the time delay effects in the system coefficients or the driving noises, which leads to optimal control strategies depending explicitly on the historical trajectories of the system state. By modelling the control process as the solution of a Neural RDE driven by the state process, we show that the control-state joint dynamics are governed by an uncontrolled, augmented Neural RDE, allowing for fast Monte-Carlo estimation of the value function via trajectories simulation and memory-efficient backpropagation. We provide theoretical underpinnings for the proposed algorithmic framework by demonstrating that Neural RDEs serve as universal approximators for functions of random rough paths. Exhaustive numerical experiments on non-Markovian stochastic control problems are presented, which reveal that the proposed framework is time-resolution-invariant and achieves higher accuracy and better stability in irregular sampling compared to existing RNN-based approaches.

cs.LG

Projections of SDEs onto Submanifolds

In [ABF19] the authors define three projections of Rd-valued stochastic differential equations (SDEs) onto submanifolds: the Stratonovich, Ito-vector and Ito-jet projections. In this paper, after a brief survey of SDEs on manifolds, we begin by giving these projections a natural, coordinate-free description, each in terms of a specific representation of manifold-valued SDEs. We proceed by deriving formulae for the three projections in ambient $\mathbb R^d$-coordinates. We use these to show that the Ito-vector and Ito-jet projections satisfy respectively a weak and mean-square optimality criterion for small t: this is achieved by solving constrained optimisation problems. These results confirm, but do not rely on the approach taken in [ABF19], which is formulated in terms of weak and strong Ito-Taylor expansions. In the final section we exhibit examples showing how the three projections can differ, and explore alternative notions of optimality.

math.PR

A combinatorial approach to geometric rough paths and their controlled paths

We develop the structure theory for transformations of weakly geometric rough paths of bounded $1 < p$-variation and their controlled paths. Our approach differs from existing approaches as it does not rely on smooth approximations. We derive an explicit combinatorial expression for the rough path lift of a controlled path, and use it to obtain fundamental identities such as the associativity of the rough integral, the adjunction between pushforwards and pullbacks, and a change of variables formula for rough differential equations (RDEs). As applications we define rough paths, rough integration and RDEs on manifolds, extending the results of [CDL15] to the case of arbitrary $p$.

math.CA

Non-Geometric Rough Paths on Manifolds

We provide a theory of manifold-valued rough paths of bounded 3 > p-variation, which we do not assume to be geometric. Rough paths are defined in charts, and coordinate-free (but connection-dependent) definitions of the rough integral of cotangent bundle-valued controlled paths, and of RDEs driven by a rough path valued in another manifold, are given. When the path is the realisation of semimartingale we recover the theory of Itô integration and SDEs on manifolds [É89]. We proceed to present the extrinsic counterparts to our local formulae, and show how these extend the work in [CDL15] to the setting of non-geometric rough paths and controlled integrands more general than 1-forms. In the last section we turn to parallel transport and Cartan development: the lack of geometricity leads us to make the choice of a connection on the tangent bundle of the manifold TM, which figures in an Itô correction term in the parallelism RDE; such connection, which is not needed in the geometric/Stratonovich setting, is required to satisfy properties which guarantee well-definedness, linearity, and optionally isometricity of parallel transport. We conclude by providing numerous examples, some accompanied by numerical simulations, which explore the additional subtleties introduced by our change in perspective.

math.CA