arXiv subjects

Emily Aiken

Publications and source records attributed to Emily Aiken.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Meta-Design of Allocation Problems

There is an extensive literature that studies how to find optimal policies in resource allocation problems, taking the underlying design parameters that define the allocation, such as what data is collected, how many people can be served, and quality of service as fixed constraints. Yet, from a planner's perspective, these design parameters are themselves optimization variables that are just as important in determining overall welfare as selecting the optimal targeting rule for a given set of constraints. This realization motivates a rich set of meta-design questions exploring how planners should make principled decisions about investments in prediction, capacity constraints, and treatment quality, all of which lie upstream of classical policy optimization. Building on initial theoretical work in this space, our paper has three main contributions. First, we formally define the broad meta-design space of resource allocation problems. Second, we develop empirical tools that enable practitioners to reliably navigate it. Third, we demonstrate the framework in two real-world case studies on German employment services and targeted cash transfer programs in Ethiopia.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Predicting Well-Being with Mobile Phone Data: Evidence from Four Countries

We provide systematic evidence on the potential for estimating household well-being from mobile phone data. Using data from four countries - Afghanistan, Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, and Togo - we conduct parallel, standardized machine learning experiments to assess which measures of welfare can be most accurately predicted, which types of phone data are most useful, and how much training data is required. We find that long-term poverty measures such as wealth indices (Pearson's rho = 0.20-0.59) and multidimensional poverty (rho = 0.29-0.57) can be predicted more accurately than consumption (rho = 0.04 - 0.54); transient vulnerability measures like food security and mental health are very difficult to predict. Models using calls and text message behavior are more predictive than those using metadata on mobile internet usage, mobile money transactions, and airtime top-ups. Predictive accuracy improves rapidly through the first 1,000-2,000 training observations, with continued gains beyond 4,500 observations. Model performance depends strongly on sample heterogeneity: nationally-representative samples yield 20-70 percent higher accuracy than urban-only or rural-only samples.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Detection of Mental Health Conditions and Cyberbullying from Social Media

Mental health challenges and cyberbullying are increasingly prevalent in digital spaces, necessitating scalable and interpretable detection systems. This paper introduces a unified multiclass classification framework for detecting ten distinct mental health and cyberbullying categories from social media data. We curate datasets from Twitter and Reddit, implementing a rigorous "split-then-balance" pipeline to train on balanced data while evaluating on a realistic, held-out imbalanced test set. We conducted a comprehensive evaluation comparing traditional lexical models, hybrid approaches, and several end-to-end fine-tuned transformers. Our results demonstrate that end-to-end fine-tuning is critical for performance, with the domain-adapted MentalBERT emerging as the top model, achieving an accuracy of 0.92 and a Macro F1 score of 0.76, surpassing both its generic counterpart and a zero-shot LLM baseline. Grounded in a comprehensive ethical analysis, we frame the system as a human-in-the-loop screening aid, not a diagnostic tool. To support this, we introduce a hybrid SHAPLLM explainability framework and present a prototype dashboard ("Social Media Screener") designed to integrate model predictions and their explanations into a practical workflow for moderators. Our work provides a robust baseline, highlighting future needs for multi-label, clinically-validated datasets at the critical intersection of online safety and computational mental health.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Expanding Perspectives on Data Privacy: Insights from Rural Togo

Passively collected "big" data sources are increasingly used to inform critical development policy decisions in low- and middle-income countries. While prior work highlights how such approaches may reveal sensitive information, enable surveillance, and centralize power, less is known about the corresponding privacy concerns, hopes, and fears of the people directly impacted by these policies -- people sometimes referred to as experiential experts. To understand the perspectives of experiential experts, we conducted semi-structured interviews with people living in rural villages in Togo shortly after an entirely digital cash transfer program was launched that used machine learning and mobile phone metadata to determine program eligibility. This paper documents participants' privacy concerns surrounding the introduction of big data approaches in development policy. We find that the privacy concerns of our experiential experts differ from those raised by privacy and development domain experts. To facilitate a more robust and constructive account of privacy, we discuss implications for policies and designs that take seriously the privacy concerns raised by both experiential experts and domain experts.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Privacy Guarantees for Personal Mobility Data in Humanitarian Response

Personal mobility data from mobile phones and other sensors are increasingly used to inform policymaking during pandemics, natural disasters, and other humanitarian crises. However, even aggregated mobility traces can reveal private information about individual movements to potentially malicious actors. This paper develops and tests an approach for releasing private mobility data, which provides formal guarantees over the privacy of the underlying subjects. Specifically, we (1) introduce an algorithm for constructing differentially private mobility matrices, and derive privacy and accuracy bounds on this algorithm; (2) use real-world data from mobile phone operators in Afghanistan and Rwanda to show how this algorithm can enable the use of private mobility data in two high-stakes policy decisions: pandemic response and the distribution of humanitarian aid; and (3) discuss practical decisions that need to be made when implementing this approach, such as how to optimally balance privacy and accuracy. Taken together, these results can help enable the responsible use of private mobility data in humanitarian response.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2023

Fairness and representation in satellite-based poverty maps: Evidence of urban-rural disparities and their impacts on downstream policy

Poverty maps derived from satellite imagery are increasingly used to inform high-stakes policy decisions, such as the allocation of humanitarian aid and the distribution of government resources. Such poverty maps are typically constructed by training machine learning algorithms on a relatively modest amount of ``ground truth" data from surveys, and then predicting poverty levels in areas where imagery exists but surveys do not. Using survey and satellite data from ten countries, this paper investigates disparities in representation, systematic biases in prediction errors, and fairness concerns in satellite-based poverty mapping across urban and rural lines, and shows how these phenomena affect the validity of policies based on predicted maps. Our findings highlight the importance of careful error and bias analysis before using satellite-based poverty maps in real-world policy decisions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Can Strategic Data Collection Improve the Performance of Poverty Prediction Models?

Machine learning-based estimates of poverty and wealth are increasingly being used to guide the targeting of humanitarian aid and the allocation of social assistance. However, the ground truth labels used to train these models are typically borrowed from existing surveys that were designed to produce national statistics -- not to train machine learning models. Here, we test whether adaptive sampling strategies for ground truth data collection can improve the performance of poverty prediction models. Through simulations, we compare the status quo sampling strategies (uniform at random and stratified random sampling) to alternatives that prioritize acquiring training data based on model uncertainty or model performance on sub-populations. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that none of these active learning methods improve over uniform-at-random sampling. We discuss how these results can help shape future efforts to refine machine learning-based estimates of poverty.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Program Targeting with Machine Learning and Mobile Phone Data: Evidence from an Anti-Poverty Intervention in Afghanistan

Can mobile phone data improve program targeting? By combining rich survey data from a "big push" anti-poverty program in Afghanistan with detailed mobile phone logs from program beneficiaries, we study the extent to which machine learning methods can accurately differentiate ultra-poor households eligible for program benefits from ineligible households. We show that machine learning methods leveraging mobile phone data can identify ultra-poor households nearly as accurately as survey-based measures of consumption and wealth; and that combining survey-based measures with mobile phone data produces classifications more accurate than those based on a single data source.

econ.GN↗