arXiv subjects

Emily B. Fox

Publications and source records attributed to Emily B. Fox.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Identifiability and Estimation of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models for Subsampled and Mixed Frequency Time Series

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of the desired series. Furthermore, due to technological and other limitations, series may be observed at different sampling rates, representing a mixed frequency setting. To determine instantaneous and lagged effects between time series at the true causal scale, we take a model-based approach based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. In this context, we present a unifying framework for parameter identifiability and estimation under both subsampling and mixed frequencies when the noise, or shocks, are non-Gaussian. Importantly, by studying the SVAR case, we are able to both provide identifiability and estimation methods for the causal structure of both lagged and instantaneous effects at the desired time scale. We further derive an exact EM algorithm for inference in both subsampled and mixed frequency settings. We validate our approach in simulated scenarios and on two real world data sets.

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arXiv2015

A Complete Recipe for Stochastic Gradient MCMC

Many recent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers leverage continuous dynamics to define a transition kernel that efficiently explores a target distribution. In tandem, a focus has been on devising scalable variants that subsample the data and use stochastic gradients in place of full-data gradients in the dynamic simulations. However, such stochastic gradient MCMC samplers have lagged behind their full-data counterparts in terms of the complexity of dynamics considered since proving convergence in the presence of the stochastic gradient noise is non-trivial. Even with simple dynamics, significant physical intuition is often required to modify the dynamical system to account for the stochastic gradient noise. In this paper, we provide a general recipe for constructing MCMC samplers--including stochastic gradient versions--based on continuous Markov processes specified via two matrices. We constructively prove that the framework is complete. That is, any continuous Markov process that provides samples from the target distribution can be written in our framework. We show how previous continuous-dynamic samplers can be trivially "reinvented" in our framework, avoiding the complicated sampler-specific proofs. We likewise use our recipe to straightforwardly propose a new state-adaptive sampler: stochastic gradient Riemann Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGRHMC). Our experiments on simulated data and a streaming Wikipedia analysis demonstrate that the proposed SGRHMC sampler inherits the benefits of Riemann HMC, with the scalability of stochastic gradient methods.

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arXiv2015

Achieving a Hyperlocal Housing Price Index: Overcoming Data Sparsity by Bayesian Dynamical Modeling of Multiple Data Streams

Understanding how housing values evolve over time is important to policy makers, consumers and real estate professionals. Existing methods for constructing housing indices are computed at a coarse spatial granularity, such as metropolitan regions, which can mask or distort price dynamics apparent in local markets, such as neighborhoods and census tracts. A challenge in moving to estimates at, for example, the census tract level is the sparsity of spatiotemporally localized house sales observations. Our work aims at addressing this challenge by leveraging observations from multiple census tracts discovered to have correlated valuation dynamics. Our proposed Bayesian nonparametric approach builds on the framework of latent factor models to enable a flexible, data-driven method for inferring the clustering of correlated census tracts. We explore methods for scalability and parallelizability of computations, yielding a housing valuation index at the level of census tract rather than zip code, and on a monthly basis rather than quarterly. Our analysis is provided on a large Seattle metropolitan housing dataset.

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arXiv2015

Streaming Variational Inference for Bayesian Nonparametric Mixture Models

In theory, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models are well suited to streaming data scenarios due to their ability to adapt model complexity with the observed data. Unfortunately, such benefits have not been fully realized in practice; existing inference algorithms are either not applicable to streaming applications or not extensible to BNP models. For the special case of Dirichlet processes, streaming inference has been considered. However, there is growing interest in more flexible BNP models building on the class of normalized random measures (NRMs). We work within this general framework and present a streaming variational inference algorithm for NRM mixture models. Our algorithm is based on assumed density filtering (ADF), leading straightforwardly to expectation propagation (EP) for large-scale batch inference as well. We demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm on clustering documents in large, streaming text corpora.

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arXiv2015

Sparse graphs using exchangeable random measures

Statistical network modeling has focused on representing the graph as a discrete structure, namely the adjacency matrix, and considering the exchangeability of this array. In such cases, the Aldous-Hoover representation theorem (Aldous, 1981;Hoover, 1979} applies and informs us that the graph is necessarily either dense or empty. In this paper, we instead consider representing the graph as a measure on $\mathbb{R}_+^2$. For the associated definition of exchangeability in this continuous space, we rely on the Kallenberg representation theorem (Kallenberg, 2005). We show that for certain choices of such exchangeable random measures underlying our graph construction, our network process is sparse with power-law degree distribution. In particular, we build on the framework of completely random measures (CRMs) and use the theory associated with such processes to derive important network properties, such as an urn representation for our analysis and network simulation. Our theoretical results are explored empirically and compared to common network models. We then present a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm for efficient exploration of the posterior distribution and demonstrate that we are able to recover graphs ranging from dense to sparse--and perform associated tests--based on our flexible CRM-based formulation. We explore network properties in a range of real datasets, including Facebook social circles, a political blogosphere, protein networks, citation networks, and world wide web networks, including networks with hundreds of thousands of nodes and millions of edges.

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arXiv2014

A Bayesian approach for predicting the popularity of tweets

We predict the popularity of short messages called tweets created in the micro-blogging site known as Twitter. We measure the popularity of a tweet by the time-series path of its retweets, which is when people forward the tweet to others. We develop a probabilistic model for the evolution of the retweets using a Bayesian approach, and form predictions using only observations on the retweet times and the local network or "graph" structure of the retweeters. We obtain good step ahead forecasts and predictions of the final total number of retweets even when only a small fraction (i.e., less than one tenth) of the retweet path is observed. This translates to good predictions within a few minutes of a tweet being posted, and has potential implications for understanding the spread of broader ideas, memes, or trends in social networks.

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arXiv2014

Joint modeling of multiple time series via the beta process with application to motion capture segmentation

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions defined by a subset of these behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the behavior set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods based on the Indian buffet process representation of the predictive distribution of the beta process. Our MCMC inference algorithm efficiently adds and removes behaviors via novel split-merge moves as well as data-driven birth and death proposals, avoiding the need to consider a truncated model. We demonstrate promising results on unsupervised segmentation of human motion capture data.

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arXiv2014

Stochastic Variational Inference for Hidden Markov Models

Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or exchangeable data settings. We develop an SVI algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a time-dependent data setting. The challenge in applying stochastic optimization in this setting arises from dependencies in the chain, which must be broken to consider minibatches of observations. We propose an algorithm that harnesses the memory decay of the chain to adaptively bound errors arising from edge effects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on synthetic experiments and a large genomics dataset where a batch algorithm is computationally infeasible.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2014

Modeling the Complex Dynamics and Changing Correlations of Epileptic Events

Patients with epilepsy can manifest short, sub-clinical epileptic "bursts" in addition to full-blown clinical seizures. We believe the relationship between these two classes of events---something not previously studied quantitatively---could yield important insights into the nature and intrinsic dynamics of seizures. A goal of our work is to parse these complex epileptic events into distinct dynamic regimes. A challenge posed by the intracranial EEG (iEEG) data we study is the fact that the number and placement of electrodes can vary between patients. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric Markov switching process that allows for (i) shared dynamic regimes between a variable number of channels, (ii) asynchronous regime-switching, and (iii) an unknown dictionary of dynamic regimes. We encode a sparse and changing set of dependencies between the channels using a Markov-switching Gaussian graphical model for the innovations process driving the channel dynamics and demonstrate the importance of this model in parsing and out-of-sample predictions of iEEG data. We show that our model produces intuitive state assignments that can help automate clinical analysis of seizures and enable the comparison of sub-clinical bursts and full clinical seizures.

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arXiv2014

Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard random-walk proposals. The popularity of such methods has grown significantly in recent years. However, a limitation of HMC methods is the required gradient computation for simulation of the Hamiltonian dynamical system-such computation is infeasible in problems involving a large sample size or streaming data. Instead, we must rely on a noisy gradient estimate computed from a subset of the data. In this paper, we explore the properties of such a stochastic gradient HMC approach. Surprisingly, the natural implementation of the stochastic approximation can be arbitrarily bad. To address this problem we introduce a variant that uses second-order Langevin dynamics with a friction term that counteracts the effects of the noisy gradient, maintaining the desired target distribution as the invariant distribution. Results on simulated data validate our theory. We also provide an application of our methods to a classification task using neural networks and to online Bayesian matrix factorization.

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arXiv2014

Learning the Parameters of Determinantal Point Process Kernels

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are well-suited for modeling repulsion and have proven useful in many applications where diversity is desired. While DPPs have many appealing properties, such as efficient sampling, learning the parameters of a DPP is still considered a difficult problem due to the non-convex nature of the likelihood function. In this paper, we propose using Bayesian methods to learn the DPP kernel parameters. These methods are applicable in large-scale and continuous DPP settings even when the exact form of the eigendecomposition is unknown. We demonstrate the utility of our DPP learning methods in studying the progression of diabetic neuropathy based on spatial distribution of nerve fibers, and in studying human perception of diversity in images.

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arXiv2013

Approximate Inference in Continuous Determinantal Point Processes

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random point processes well-suited for modeling repulsion. In machine learning, the focus of DPP-based models has been on diverse subset selection from a discrete and finite base set. This discrete setting admits an efficient sampling algorithm based on the eigendecomposition of the defining kernel matrix. Recently, there has been growing interest in using DPPs defined on continuous spaces. While the discrete-DPP sampler extends formally to the continuous case, computationally, the steps required are not tractable in general. In this paper, we present two efficient DPP sampling schemes that apply to a wide range of kernel functions: one based on low rank approximations via Nystrom and random Fourier feature techniques and another based on Gibbs sampling. We demonstrate the utility of continuous DPPs in repulsive mixture modeling and synthesizing human poses spanning activity spaces.

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arXiv2013

Mixed Membership Models for Time Series

In this article we discuss some of the consequences of the mixed membership perspective on time series analysis. In its most abstract form, a mixed membership model aims to associate an individual entity with some set of attributes based on a collection of observed data. Although much of the literature on mixed membership models considers the setting in which exchangeable collections of data are associated with each member of a set of entities, it is equally natural to consider problems in which an entire time series is viewed as an entity and the goal is to characterize the time series in terms of a set of underlying dynamic attributes or "dynamic regimes". Indeed, this perspective is already present in the classical hidden Markov model, where the dynamic regimes are referred to as "states", and the collection of states realized in a sample path of the underlying process can be viewed as a mixed membership characterization of the observed time series. Our goal here is to review some of the richer modeling possibilities for time series that are provided by recent developments in the mixed membership framework.

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arXiv2013

Spatio-Temporal Low Count Processes with Application to Violent Crime Events

There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited by violent crimes in order to make such predictions. The temporal variation of crimes typically follows patterns familiar in time series analysis, but the spatial patterns are irregular and do not vary smoothly across the area. Instead we find that spatially disjoint regions exhibit correlated crime patterns. It is this indeterminate inter-region correlation structure along with the low-count, discrete nature of counts of serious crimes that motivates our proposed forecasting tool. In particular, we propose to model the crime counts in each region using an integer-valued first order autoregressive process. We take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly discover a clustering of these region-specific time series. We then describe how to account for covariates within this framework. Both approaches adjust for seasonality. We demonstrate our approach through an analysis of weekly reported violent crimes in Washington, D.C. between 2001-2008. Our forecasts outperform standard methods while additionally providing useful tools such as prediction intervals.

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arXiv2012

Markov Determinantal Point Processes

A determinantal point process (DPP) is a random process useful for modeling the combinatorial problem of subset selection. In particular, DPPs encourage a random subset Y to contain a diverse set of items selected from a base set Y. For example, we might use a DPP to display a set of news headlines that are relevant to a user's interests while covering a variety of topics. Suppose, however, that we are asked to sequentially select multiple diverse sets of items, for example, displaying new headlines day-by-day. We might want these sets to be diverse not just individually but also through time, offering headlines today that are unlike the ones shown yesterday. In this paper, we construct a Markov DPP (M-DPP) that models a sequence of random sets {Yt}. The proposed M-DPP defines a stationary process that maintains DPP margins. Crucially, the induced union process Zt = Yt u Yt-1 is also marginally DPP-distributed. Jointly, these properties imply that the sequence of random sets are encouraged to be diverse both at a given time step as well as across time steps. We describe an exact, efficient sampling procedure, and a method for incrementally learning a quality measure over items in the base set Y based on external preferences. We apply the M-DPP to the task of sequentially displaying diverse and relevant news articles to a user with topic preferences.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

Multiresolution Gaussian Processes

We propose a multiresolution Gaussian process to capture long-range, non-Markovian dependencies while allowing for abrupt changes. The multiresolution GP hierarchically couples a collection of smooth GPs, each defined over an element of a random nested partition. Long-range dependencies are captured by the top-level GP while the partition points define the abrupt changes. Due to the inherent conjugacy of the GPs, one can analytically marginalize the GPs and compute the conditional likelihood of the observations given the partition tree. This property allows for efficient inference of the partition itself, for which we employ graph-theoretic techniques. We apply the multiresolution GP to the analysis of Magnetoencephalography (MEG) recordings of brain activity.

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arXiv2012

Concept Modeling with Superwords

In information retrieval, a fundamental goal is to transform a document into concepts that are representative of its content. The term "representative" is in itself challenging to define, and various tasks require different granularities of concepts. In this paper, we aim to model concepts that are sparse over the vocabulary, and that flexibly adapt their content based on other relevant semantic information such as textual structure or associated image features. We explore a Bayesian nonparametric model based on nested beta processes that allows for inferring an unknown number of strictly sparse concepts. The resulting model provides an inherently different representation of concepts than a standard LDA (or HDP) based topic model, and allows for direct incorporation of semantic features. We demonstrate the utility of this representation on multilingual blog data and the Congressional Record.

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arXiv2011

Joint Modeling of Multiple Related Time Series via the Beta Process

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on the Indian buffet process representation of the predictive distribution of the beta process, without relying on a truncated model. In particular, our approach uses the sum-product algorithm to efficiently compute Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probabilities, and explores new dynamical behaviors via birth and death proposals. We examine the benefits of our proposed feature-based model on several synthetic datasets, and also demonstrate promising results on unsupervised segmentation of visual motion capture data.

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