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Emily Peterson

Publications and source records attributed to Emily Peterson.

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MLRegTest: A Benchmark for the Machine Learning of Regular Languages

Synthetic datasets constructed from formal languages allow fine-grained examination of the learning and generalization capabilities of machine learning systems for sequence classification. This article presents a new benchmark for machine learning systems on sequence classification called MLRegTest, which contains training, development, and test sets from 1,800 regular languages. Different kinds of formal languages represent different kinds of long-distance dependencies, and correctly identifying long-distance dependencies in sequences is a known challenge for ML systems to generalize successfully. MLRegTest organizes its languages according to their logical complexity (monadic second order, first order, propositional, or monomial expressions) and the kind of logical literals (string, tier-string, subsequence, or combinations thereof). The logical complexity and choice of literal provides a systematic way to understand different kinds of long-distance dependencies in regular languages, and therefore to understand the capacities of different ML systems to learn such long-distance dependencies. Finally, the performance of different neural networks (simple RNN, LSTM, GRU, transformer) on MLRegTest is examined. The main conclusion is that performance depends significantly on the kind of test set, the class of language, and the neural network architecture.

cs.LG

Impacts of Census Differential Privacy for Small-Area Disease Mapping to Monitor Health Inequities

The US Census Bureau will implement a new privacy-preserving disclosure avoidance system (DAS), which includes application of differential privacy, on the public-release 2020 census data. There are concerns that the DAS may bias small-area and demographically-stratified population counts, which play a critical role in public health research and policy, serving as denominators in estimation of disease/mortality rates. Employing three DAS demonstration products, we quantify errors attributable to reliance on DAS-protected denominators in standard small-area disease mapping models for characterizing health inequities. We conduct simulation studies and real data analyses of inequities in premature mortality at the census tract level in Massachusetts. Results show that overall patterns of inequity by racialized group and economic deprivation level are not compromised by the DAS. While early versions of DAS induce errors in mortality rate estimation that are larger for Black than for non-Hispanic white populations, this issue is ameliorated in newer DAS versions.

stat.AP

Draining the Water Hole: Mitigating Social Engineering Attacks with CyberTWEAK

Cyber adversaries have increasingly leveraged social engineering attacks to breach large organizations and threaten the well-being of today's online users. One clever technique, the "watering hole" attack, compromises a legitimate website to execute drive-by download attacks by redirecting users to another malicious domain. We introduce a game-theoretic model that captures the salient aspects for an organization protecting itself from a watering hole attack by altering the environment information in web traffic so as to deceive the attackers. Our main contributions are (1) a novel Social Engineering Deception (SED) game model that features a continuous action set for the attacker, (2) an in-depth analysis of the SED model to identify computationally feasible real-world cases, and (3) the CyberTWEAK algorithm which solves for the optimal protection policy. To illustrate the potential use of our framework, we built a browser extension based on our algorithms which is now publicly available online. The CyberTWEAK extension will be vital to the continued development and deployment of countermeasures for social engineering.

cs.CR

Estimating maternal mortality using data from national civil registration vital statistics systems: A Bayesian hierarchical bivariate random walk model to estimate sensitivity and specificity of reporting

Civil registration vital statistics (CRVS) data are used to produce national estimates of maternal mortality, but are often subject to substantial reporting errors due to misclassification of maternal deaths. The accuracy of CRVS systems can be assessed by comparing CRVS-based counts of maternal and non-maternal deaths to those obtained from specialized studies, which are rigorous assessments of maternal mortality for a given country-period. We developed a Bayesian bivariate random walk model to estimate sensitivity and specificity of the reporting on maternal mortality in CRVS data, and associated CRVS adjustment factors. The model was fitted to a global data set of CRVS and specialized study data. Validation exercises suggest that the model performs well in terms of predicting CRVS-based proportions of maternal deaths for country-periods without specialized studies. The new model is used by the UN Maternal Mortality Inter-Agency Group to account for misclassification errors when estimating maternal mortality using CRVS data.

stat.AP