arXiv subjects

Emily Sandford

Publications and source records attributed to Emily Sandford.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

28 Years of Sun-as-a-star Extreme Ultraviolet Light Curves from SOHO EIT

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) has been taking images of the Solar disk and corona in four narrow EUV bandpasses (171\AA, 195\AA, 284\AA, and 304\AA) at a minimum cadence of once per day since early 1996. The time series of fully-calibrated EIT images now spans approximately 28 years, from early 1996 to early 2024, covering solar cycles 23, 24, and the beginning of cycle 25. We convert this extensive EIT image archive into a time series of `Sun-as-a-star' light curves in EIT's four bandpasses, providing a long-term record of solar EUV variability. These Sun-as-a-star light curves, available for download from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15474179, trace the Sun as if it were a distant point source, viewed from a fixed perspective. We find that our EUV light curves trace the $\sim$ 11-year solar activity cycle and the $\sim$ 27-day rotation period much better than comparable optical observations. In particular, we can accurately recover the solar rotation period from our 284\AA light curve for 26 out of 28 calendar years of EIT observations (93% of the time), compared to only 3 out of 29 calendar years (10% of the time) of the VIRGO total solar irradiance time series, which is dominated by optical light. Our EIT light curves, in conjunction with Sun-as-a-star light curves at optical wavelengths, will be valuable to those interested in inferring the EUV/UV character of stars with long optical light curves but no intensive UV observations, as well as to those interested in long-term records of solar and space weather.

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arXiv2025

Characterising the Atmosphere of 55 Cancri e: 1D Forward Model Grid for Current and Future JWST Observations

Recent JWST observations with NIRCam and MIRI of the ultra-short-period super-Earth 55 Cancri e indicate a possible volatile atmosphere surrounding the planet. Previous analysis of the NIRCam spectra suggested potential absorption features from CO2 or CO and significant sub-weekly variability. The MIRI low-resolution spectrum does not contain substantial features but was found to be consistent with effective heat redistribution models. In this work, we computed a grid of over 25000 self-consistent 1D forward models incorporating H-N-O-C-S-P-Si-Ti equilibrium chemistry and assessed plausible atmospheric compositions based on the current JWST data. Despite exhaustive analysis, the composition and properties of the atmosphere remain elusive. While our results statistically favour a global, hydrogen-free, nitrogen-dominated atmosphere enriched in PO and CO2, various alternative compositions, including H2O-,CO-, PH3-, or Si-bearing remain viable explanations. Unconstrained heat redistribution efficiency and absolute NIRCam flux are among the largest sources of uncertainty in our analysis. We also find that the heat redistribution factor and surface pressure are highly degenerate with atmospheric composition, and that these parameters cannot be independently constrained using current JWST observations. Furthermore, we show that the observed variability may arise from dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and an underlying magma ocean, driving rapid shifts in atmospheric chemistry and thermal emission. Our results highlight the importance of using self-consistent forward models when analysing novel JWST spectra with limited signal-to-noise ratios -- such as those of 55 Cancri e -- as it allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of potential atmospheric scenarios while also being less sensitive to subtle spectral differences than retrievals...

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arXiv2021

On planetary systems as ordered sequences

A planetary system consists of a host star and one or more planets, arranged into a particular configuration. Here, we consider what information belongs to the configuration, or ordering, of 4286 Kepler planets in their 3277 planetary systems. First, we train a neural network model to predict the radius and period of a planet based on the properties of its host star and the radii and period of its neighbors. The mean absolute error of the predictions of the trained model is a factor of 2.1 better than the MAE of the predictions of a naive model which draws randomly from dynamically allowable periods and radii. Second, we adapt a model used for unsupervised part-of-speech tagging in computational linguistics to investigate whether planets or planetary systems fall into natural categories with physically interpretable "grammatical rules." The model identifies two robust groups of planetary systems: (1) compact multi-planet systems and (2) systems around giant stars ($\log{g} \lesssim 4.0$), although the latter group is strongly sculpted by the selection bias of the transit method. These results reinforce the idea that planetary systems are not random sequences -- instead, as a population, they contain predictable patterns that can provide insight into the formation and evolution of planetary systems.

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arXiv2019

The Spaceline: a practical space elevator alternative achievable with current technology

Perhaps the biggest hurdle to mankind's expansion throughout the Solar System is the prohibitive cost of escaping Earth's gravitational pull. In its many forms, the space-elevator provides a way to circumvent this cost, allowing payloads to traverse along a cable extending from Earth to orbit. However, modern materials are not strong enough to build a cable capable of supporting its own weight. In this work we present an alternative to the classic space elevator, within reach of modern technology: The Spaceline. By extending a line, anchored on the moon, to deep within Earth's gravity well, we can construct a stable, traversable cable allowing free movement from the vicinity of Earth to the Moon's surface. With current materials, it is feasible to build a cable extending to close to the height of geostationary orbit, allowing easy traversal and construction between the Earth and the Moon.

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arXiv2019

Estimation of singly-transiting K2 planet periods with Gaia parallaxes

When a planet is only observed to transit once, direct measurement of its period is impossible. It is possible, however, to constrain the periods of single transiters, and this is desirable as they are likely to represent the cold and far extremes of the planet population observed by any particular survey. Improving the accuracy with which the period of single transiters can be constrained is therefore critical to enhance the long-period planet yield of surveys. Here, we combine Gaia parallaxes with stellar models and broad-band photometry to estimate the stellar densities of K2 planet host stars, then use that stellar density information to model individual planet transits and infer the posterior period distribution. We show that the densities we infer are reliable by comparing with densities derived through asteroseismology, and apply our method to 27 validation planets of known (directly measured) period, treating each transit as if it were the only one, as well as to 12 true single transiters. When we treat eccentricity as a free parameter, we achieve a fractional period uncertainty over the true single transits of $94^{+87}_{-58}\%$, and when we fix $e=0$, we achieve fractional period uncertainty $15^{+30}_{-6}\%$, a roughly threefold improvement over typical period uncertainties of previous studies.

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arXiv2019

Higher Order Harmonics in the Light Curves of Eccentric Planetary Systems

As a planet orbits, it causes periodic modulations in the light curve of its host star. Due to the combined effects of the planet raising tides on the host star, relativistic beaming of the starlight, and reflection of light off the planet's surface, these modulations occur at the planet's orbital frequency, as well as integer multiples of this frequency. In particular, planets on eccentric orbits induce third and higher-order harmonics in the stellar light curve which cannot be explained by circular-orbit models. Even at moderate eccentricities, such as those typical of Solar System planets, these harmonics are detectable in current and future photometric data. We present an analysis of the harmonics caused by tides, beaming, and reflection in eccentric planetary systems. We explore the dependence of these signals on the parameters of the system, and we discuss prospects for current and future observations of these signals, particularly by the NASA TESS mission. Finally, we present publicly available code for computation of light curves with tidal, beaming, and reflection signals, OoT.

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arXiv2019

The multiplicity distribution of Kepler's exoplanets

The true multiplicity distribution of transiting planet systems is obscured by strong observational biases, leading low-multiplicity systems to be overrepresented in the observed sample. Using the Kepler FGK planet hosts, we employ approximate Bayesian computation to infer the multiplicity distribution by comparing simulated catalogs to the observed one. After comparing a total of ten different multiplicity distributions, half of which were two-population models, to the observed data, we find that a single-population model following a Zipfian distribution is able to explain the Kepler data as well as any of the dichotomous models we test. Our work provides another example of a way to explain the observed Kepler multiplicities without invoking a dichotomous planet population. Using our preferred Zipfian model, we estimate that an additional $2393_{-717}^{+904}$ planets likely reside in the 1537 FGK Kepler systems studied in this work, which would increase the planet count by a factor of $2.22_{-0.36}^{+0.46}$. Of these hidden worlds, $663_{-151}^{+158}$ are expected to reside in ostensibly single-transiting-planet systems, meaning that an additional planet(s) is expected for approximately 1-in-2 such Kepler systems.

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arXiv2018

Shadow Imaging of Transiting Objects

We consider the problem of inferring the shape of a transiting object's silhouette from its light curve alone, without assuming a physical model for the object. We model the object as a grid of pixels which transits the star; each pixel has an opacity, ranging from transparent to opaque, which we infer from the light curve. We explore three interesting degeneracies inherent to this problem, in which markedly different transiting shapes can produce identical light curves: (i) the "flip" degeneracy, by which two pixels transiting at the same impact parameter on opposite sides of the star's horizontal midplane generate the same light curve; (ii) the "arc" degeneracy, by which opacity can be redistributed along the semicircular arc of pixels which undergoes ingress or egress at the same time without consequence to the light curve, and (iii) the "stretch" degeneracy, by which a wide shape moving fast can produce the same light curve as a narrow shape moving more slowly. By understanding these degeneracies and adopting some additional assumptions, we are able to numerically recover informative shadow images of transiting objects, and we explore a number of different algorithmic approaches to this problem. We apply our methods to real data, including the TRAPPIST-1c,e,f triple transit and two dips of Boyajian's Star. We provide Python code to calculate the transit light curve of any grid and, conversely, infer the image grid which generates any light curve in a software package accompanying this paper, EightBitTransit.

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arXiv2018

Two Thousand Kepler Phase Curves from Phasma

An exoplanet's optical phase curve constrains the thermal emission and albedo of the planet's surface and/or atmosphere, as well as potentially constraining the mass via gravitational influences on the host star. Recently, Jansen & Kipping (2018) demonstrated that exoplanets with precisely constrained orbital periods, as is typical of transiting planets, enable one to exploit a Fourier-argument to non-parametrically separate optical phase curves from long-term photometric time series in the presence of realistic noise structures. This algorithm, dubbed phasma, was applied to 477 confirmed exoplanets in the original paper. In this research note, we extend the sample to all non-false positive Kepler Objects of Interest with periods less than ten days. Our sample of 1998 detrended phase curves are made publicly available to help the community search for various effects. A Python port of the phasma code is also made available.

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arXiv2017

Know the Planet, Know the Star: Precise Stellar Densities from Kepler Transit Light Curves

The properties of a transiting planet's host star are written in its transit light curve. The light curve can reveal the stellar density and the limb darkening profile in addition to the characteristics of the planet and its orbit. For planets with strong prior constraints on orbital eccentricity, we may measure these stellar properties directly from the light curve; this method promises to aid greatly in the characterization of transiting planet host stars targeted by the upcoming NASA TESS mission and any long-period, singly-transiting planets discovered in the same systems. Using Bayesian inference, we fit a transit model, including a nonlinear limb darkening law, to 66 Kepler transiting planet hosts to measure their stellar properties. We present posterior distributions of stellar density, limb-darkening coefficients, and other system parameters for these stars. We measure densities to within 5% for the majority of our target stars, with the dominant precision-limiting factor being the signal-to-noise ratio of the transits. 95 % of our measured stellar densities are in 3-sigma or better agreement with previously published literature values. We make posterior distributions for all of our target KOIs available for online download.

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arXiv2017

Quantifying tidal stream disruption in a simulated Milky Way

Simulations of tidal streams show that close encounters with dark matter subhalos induce density gaps and distortions in on-sky path along the streams. Accordingly, observing disrupted streams in the Galactic halo would substantiate the hypothesis that dark matter substructure exists there, while in contrast, observing collimated streams with smoothly varying density profiles would place strong upper limits on the number density and mass spectrum of subhalos. Here, we examine several measures of stream "disruption" and their power to distinguish between halo potentials with and without substructure and with different global shapes. We create and evolve a population of 1280 streams on a range of orbits in the Via Lactea II simulation of a Milky Way-like halo, replete with a full mass range of ΛCDM subhalos, and compare it to two control stream populations evolved in smooth spherical and smooth triaxial potentials, respectively. We find that the number of gaps observed in a stellar stream is a poor indicator of the halo potential, but that (i) the thinness of the stream on-sky, (ii) the symmetry of the leading and trailing tails, and (iii) the deviation of the tails from a low-order polynomial path on-sky ("path regularity") distinguish between the three potentials more effectively. We find that globular cluster streams on low-eccentricity orbits far from the galactic center (apocentric radius ~ 30-80 kpc) are most powerful in distinguishing between the three potentials. If they exist, such streams will shortly be discoverable and mapped in high dimensions with near-future photometric and spectroscopic surveys.

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arXiv2016

No Conclusive Evidence for Transits of Proxima b in MOST photometry

The analysis of Proxima Centauri's radial velocities recently led Anglada-Escudé et al. (2016) to claim the presence of a low mass planet orbiting the Sun's nearest star once every 11.2 days. Although the a-priori probability that Proxima b transits its parent star is just 1.5%, the potential impact of such a discovery would be considerable. Independent of recent radial velocity efforts, we observed Proxima Centauri for 12.5 days in 2014 and 31 days in 2015 with the MOST space telescope. We report here that we cannot make a compelling case that Proxima b transits in our precise photometric time series. Imposing an informative prior on the period and phase, we do detect a candidate signal with the expected depth. However, perturbing the phase prior across 100 evenly spaced intervals reveals one strong false-positive and one weaker instance. We estimate a false-positive rate of at least a few percent and a much higher false-negative rate of 20-40%, likely caused by the very high flare rate of Proxima Centauri. Comparing our candidate signal to HATSouth ground-based photometry reveals that the signal is somewhat, but not conclusively, disfavored (1-2 sigmas) leading us to argue that the signal is most likely spurious. We expect that infrared photometric follow-up could more conclusively test the existence of this candidate signal, owing to the suppression of flare activity and the impressive infrared brightness of the parent star.

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arXiv2016

Observational biases for transiting planets

Observational biases distort our view of nature, such that the patterns we see within a surveyed population of interest are often unrepresentative of the truth we seek. Transiting planets currently represent the most informative data set on the ensemble properties of exoplanets within 1 AU of their star. However, the transit method is inherently biased due to both geometric and detection-driven effects. In this work, we derive the overall observational biases affecting the most basic transit parameters from first principles. By assuming a trapezoidal transit and using conditional probability, we infer the expected distribution of these terms both as a joint distribution and in a marginalized form. These general analytic results provide a baseline against which to compare trends predicted by mission-tailored injection/recovery simulations and offer a simple way to correct for observational bias. Our results explain why the observed population of transiting planets displays a non-uniform impact parameter distribution, with a bias towards near-equatorial geometries. We also find that the geometric bias towards observed planets transiting near periastron is attenuated by the longer durations which occur near apoastron. Finally, we predict that the observational bias with respect to ratio-of-radii is super-quadratic, scaling as $(R_P/R_{\star})^{5/2}$, driven by an enhanced geometric transit probability and modestly longer durations.

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arXiv2016

A Transiting Jupiter Analog

Decadal-long radial velocity surveys have recently started to discover analogs to the most influential planet of our solar system, Jupiter. Detecting and characterizing these worlds is expected to shape our understanding of our uniqueness in the cosmos. Despite the great successes of recent transit surveys, Jupiter analogs represent a terra incognita, owing to the strong intrinsic bias of this method against long orbital periods. We here report on the first validated transiting Jupiter analog, Kepler-167e (KOI-490.02), discovered using Kepler archival photometry orbiting the K4-dwarf KIC-3239945. With a radius of $(0.91\pm0.02)$ $R_{\mathrm{Jup}}$, a low orbital eccentricity ($0.06_{-0.04}^{+0.10}$) and an equilibrium temperature of $(131\pm3)$ K, Kepler-167e bears many of the basic hallmarks of Jupiter. Kepler-167e is accompanied by three Super-Earths on compact orbits, which we also validate, leaving a large cavity of transiting worlds around the habitable-zone. With two transits and continuous photometric coverage, we are able to uniquely and precisely measure the orbital period of this post snow-line planet ($1071.2323\pm0.0006$ d), paving the way for follow-up of this $K=11.8$ mag target.

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