arXiv subjects

Emma L. Miles

Publications and source records attributed to Emma L. Miles.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Venus Benchmark: Resolving Degeneracies in Terrestrial Exoplanet Spectra with DAVINCI

The characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with thick, CO$_2$-dominated atmospheres via transmission and emission spectroscopy is limited by degeneracies between atmospheric composition, cloud structure, and surface conditions. These degeneracies are particularly acute for planets in or near the Venus Zone, where sulfuric acid aerosol layers and deep-atmosphere opacity render the lower atmosphere and surface spectroscopically inaccessible via many optical/IR wavelengths. Venus provides the only accessible analog to such worlds, yet current knowledge of its full atmospheric profile relies on decades-old in situ data with known limitations. Here we demonstrate that the forthcoming DAVINCI (Deep Atmosphere Venus Investigation of Noble gases, Chemistry, and Imaging) mission will provide the comprehensive, high-fidelity atmospheric profile data necessary to resolve many of these degeneracies. We quantify how atmospheric profile uncertainties translate into uncertainties in modeled transmission and thermal emission spectra of CO$_2$-dominated terrestrial worlds, and show that the spread in the modeled Venus benchmark spectrum arising from current atmospheric profile uncertainties will decrease by factors of $\sim$4--5 for transmission and $\sim$5--15$\times$ for thermal emission after DAVINCI, providing a correspondingly improved benchmark and prior for the modeling of exoplanets with Venus-like atmospheres. We further demonstrate that these improvement factors are larger for the cloud-free atmospheric case, where the opacity floor is set by gas-phase processes rather than aerosols, because the pre-DAVINCI data are most discrepant in the sub-cloud region. Our results highlight the importance of Venus for the atmospheric characterization of rocky exoplanets in the JWST and HWO era, and demonstrate how DAVINCI measurements will directly improve exoplanet atmospheric modeling.

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arXiv2026

The Tidal Venus Phenomenon: Demographics and Case Studies

The demographics of terrestrial planets and their orbits reveal a vast diversity in overall planetary energy budgets. Terrestrial exoplanets in short-period or eccentric orbits can experience intense tidal heating that, combined with stellar irradiation, may trigger runaway greenhouse conditions analogous to Venus. We calculate tidal heating rates for 143 terrestrial-sized exoplanets with measured eccentricities and find that, under adopted archive default eccentricities and constant-$Q$ assumptions, 70% exceed the extreme volcanism threshold in tidal flux and 96% exceed the runaway greenhouse limit in total zero-albedo flux. We develop a three-category taxonomy of tidal influence on climate: flux-driven Venus analogs, tidally dominated planets, and historically compromised Habitable Zone (HZ) worlds, and apply this framework to five case studies. TOI-6716 b and TOI-912 b may have exceptionally high tidal fluxes, potentially serving as examples where tidal dissipation alone causes them to exceed the runaway greenhouse threshold. TOI-700 d and LHS 1140 b, though currently below the threshold, were exposed to above-threshold stellar irradiation during their host stars' $\sim$0.5--3~Gyr pre-main-sequence phases; whether their atmospheres survived is testable with JWST. GJ 12 b, already above the threshold from stellar flux alone, experiences a tidal heat flux of $\sim$5~W/m$^2$ (comparable to Io) that drives an independent volcanic pathway to a runaway greenhouse. Three-dimensional climate simulations show that a temperate atmosphere for GJ 12 b fails to achieve radiative balance, while a Venus-like CO$_2$-dominated atmosphere converges to a stable state. We consider observational prospects for these systems and connections to forthcoming Venus in-situ missions.

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arXiv2026

The Expected Yield of Venus Zone Terrestrial Planets from PLATO

The characterization of terrestrial exoplanets and the conditions that lead to divergent climate outcomes is a primary goal of exoplanetary science. The Venus Zone (VZ) provides a framework for identifying planets that may have experienced runaway greenhouse processes similar to Venus, and the statistical properties of such planets bear directly on models of planetary habitability. Here we present a quantitative estimate of the expected yield of VZ terrestrial planets from ESA's PLATO (PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars) mission. We combine the predicted PLATO planet yield for Earth-size ($0.8$--$1.25~R_\oplus$) and super-Earth ($1.25$--$2.0~R_\oplus$) planets with empirical occurrence rates for VZ terrestrial planets derived from Kepler data. Under conservative assumptions, we estimate that PLATO will detect $\sim$170--280 VZ terrestrial planets ($0.8$--$2.0~R_\oplus$), including $\sim$40--80 Earth-size ($0.8$--$1.25~R_\oplus$) planets, during a nominal 4-year mission. For the bright P1 sample ($V \leq 11$), we estimate $\sim$50--85 terrestrial and $\sim$13--22 Earth-size VZ detections, enabling radial velocity mass determination and atmospheric characterization of the most favorable targets with JWST and future facilities. We discuss the implications of this yield for comparative studies of Earth-Venus divergence, synergies with the DAVINCI, VERITAS, and EnVision missions to Venus, and the role of PLATO in advancing our understanding of the runaway greenhouse boundary.

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arXiv2026

Mars as an Exoplanet: Lessons from a Planet at the Edge of Habitability

Mars is the Solar System's canonical small, rocky planet that transitioned from early geologic activity and surface liquid water to a cold and arid planet with a thin, cold, CO$_2$-dominated atmosphere. The evolution of Mars, in the context of such planetary parameters as size, mass, atmosphere, insolation flux, magnetosphere, and impact history, harbor important diagnostics regarding the development and sustainability of habitable surface conditions. In this work, we synthesize how the study of Mars contributes to our understanding of exoplanet processes, such as volatile delivery and loss, photochemistry, climate evolution (including CO$_2$ condensation and atmospheric loss), obliquity forcing, planetary architecture, and the role of intrinsic magnetism. We also evaluate optimal methods and prospects for detecting and characterizing potential Mars analogs beyond the Solar System. We focus on relevant results from planetary missions (e.g., Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, MAVEN, Mars Science Laboratory, Mars2020) and observational studies of exoplanet atmospheres with the James Webb Space telescope (JWST) and future facilities. Through the convergence of these parallel pathways of inquiry, we describe the primary science questions and suggested avenues for characterizing small rocky planets that lie at the edge of potentially habitable conditions.

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arXiv2026

Imaging Venus-like Worlds: Spectral, Polarimetric, and UV Diagnostics for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Understanding planetary habitability requires a comparative approach that explores the divergent evolutionary outcomes of Earth and Venus. The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will be uniquely positioned to conduct a statistical and physical census of terrestrial exoplanets spanning the Venus Zone (VZ) and the Habitable Zone (HZ), enabling the detection and atmospheric characterization of post-runaway greenhouse worlds (``exoVenuses''). We present an updated list of VZ exoplanets, which raises the number of known candidates to 370. We describe a science case and an observing strategy for VZ exoplanets that integrates precursor exoplanet detection data and stellar characterization with HWO direct imaging, spectroscopy across the UV/optical/IR, and spectropolarimetry. Our proposed framework emphasizes a pathway toward the diagnosis of sulfur chemistry (SO$_2$) and aerosol physics (H$_2$SO$_4$ clouds/hazes), planetary redox states (O$_2$/O$_3$ false positives from hydrogen loss), and cloud microphysics detection (rainbow polarization). We quantify implications for HWO requirements, including UV access to 0.2--0.4 $\mu$m, optical/NIR coverage to $\gtrsim$1.5 $\mu$m, inner working angle (IWA) reaching 0.3--1.5 AU around nearby Sun-like stars, and the SNR/resolution needed for key features. Finally, we outline a community-driven path to producing robust demographic inferences and target selection for optimizing HWO observations.

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arXiv2025

Planetesimal Scattering Efficiency of Cold Giant Planet Architectures

The discovery of many exoplanets has revealed an incredible diversity of orbital architectures. These orbital configurations are intrinsically linked to the potential for habitable environments within the system, since the gravitational influence of the planets governs the angular momentum distribution within the system. This angular momentum distribution, in turn, alters the planetary orbits and rotational obliquities. In the case of giant planets, their gravitational influence can also produce significant redistribution of volatiles, particularly those that lie beyond the snow line. Here, we present the results of dynamical simulations that investigate the role of cold giant planets in scattering material to inner terrestrial planets. We highlight 10 exoplanetary systems with 2 or more known giant planets beyond the snow line, and adopt a solar system analog template that investigates the scattering of material within the range 3-8~AU. We show that increasing the eccentricity of a Jupiter analog from its present, near-circular, value to a moderate range (0.2-0.3) results in an order of magnitude increase in scattered material to the inner part of the system. The inclusion of a Saturn analog to the dynamical model produces a similar increase, highlighting the importance of multiple giant planets beyond the snow line. However, the addition of analogs to Uranus and Neptune can have a minor negative effect on scattering efficiency through the transfer of angular momentum from the inner giant planets.

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arXiv2025

Interior and Climate Modeling of the Venus Zone Planet TOI-2285 b

As the discovery of exoplanets progresses at a rapid pace, the large number of known planets provides a pathway to assess the stellar and planetary properties that govern the climate evolution of terrestrial planets. Of particular interest are those planetary cases that straddle the radius boundary of being terrestrial or gaseous in nature, such as super-Earth and sub-Neptune exoplanets, respectively. The known exoplanet, TOI-2285 b, is one such case, since it lies at the radius boundary of super-Earth and sub-Neptune ($R_p = 1.74$ $R_\oplus$), and receives a relatively high instellation flux since its orbit exists within both the Habitable Zone (HZ) and Venus Zone (VZ). Here, we present an analysis of the planetary interior and climate to determine possible evolutionary pathways for the planet. We provide volatile inventory estimates in terms of the planet's bulk density and interior composition. We performed climate simulations using ROCKE-3D that provide a suite of possible temperate scenarios for the planet for a range of topographical and initial surface water assumptions. Using the outputs of the climate simulations, we modeled JWST transmission and emission spectroscopy for each scenario. Our results demonstrate that there are temperate scenarios consistent with the known planetary properties, despite the planet's estimated steam atmosphere, and its location relative to the VZ.

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